Giskard said:
What difference does it make who voted and who they were aligned with?
We gave them the opportunity for a free vote. Step 1 on a long road to self determination, that is what matters.
Bush did not go into Iraq to spread democracy. Bush went there to aquire a vital cog in the in the PNAC plan to use the sole superpower situation to create an American dominated century which in theory would benefit America and the world. I place more weight on what the Bush team was saying when they were out of power and speaking candidly during the Clinton years than what they say now in the media glare.
Haiti and the past history of the Bush team shows that spreading democracy is not their priority. The WMD motive for entering Iraq has been exposed as having been a big lie. The PNAC motive for entering Iraq is the motive that best fits with the way the facts of Iraq have played out.
If the PNAC motive is the true motive then allowing Iraq to break free from American influence under Al-Jaafari or anybody else would be a defeat for the Bush team in a mission that PNAC/neocon thinking considered very important. I think the Bush team thought that they could place an Allawi type in control of Iraq and have a veneer of democratic legitimacy in the same way that they successfully placed Hamid Karzai as head of state in Afghanistan while giving Karzai the veneer of democratic legitimacy.
One of the only things that I like about the Bush team is there determination to succeed and their refusal to back down and take a less ambitious easier path when obstacles arise. Too bad for me that I don't share Bush's theories and goals because I would love to have that determination on my side. If I am right about why the Bush team went into Iraq and my assesment of the Bush teams character then the Bush team will feel that they must overthrow the Iraqi democracy if they can not control the Iraqi demnocracy.
PNAC/neocon goals require permanent American bases in Iraq, permanent American control over Iraqi foreign policy, and American control over the quantity of oil shipped from Iraq in order to be able to threaten to raise and lower the price of oil or even cut off the supply of oil to any particular nation as a means of influencing the policies of other nations. I don't believe that the Bush team will be willing to negotiate on those issues. Bush may also want to impose on Iraq neoliberal economic policy and corporate welfare to allied corporations but that is probably negotiable. Al-Jaafari and most Iraqis won't be willing to give the Bush team what the Bush team wants unless they have no choice; So the Bush team will feel that they must create a situation in which the Iraqis have no choice but to submit to American control.
I hear that private secret police and militias have been creted in Iraq that are on the US payroll and are not part of the Iraqi government. I hear that the Iraqi government intelligence agencies have not yet been turned over to the Iraqi government and are still taking orders direcly from the USA. One interpretation of why Bush the first refused to give air support to the rebllion that he called for in Iraq was that he wanted the rebellion to be lead by Baath / Sunnis and the rebellion he got was led by Shiites (who might be to friendly to Iran).
Iraqis believe that Sistani won them the election by threatening to throw the Shiites into rebellion against the American coalition and believe Bush did not want the election to take place at that time. Bush had not yet completed building a system with which to covertly control Iraq after the elections.
It does make a difference who the Iraqis voted for and who they were aligned with because now that the Iraqis have elected people that Bush did not created and does not control Bush may feel that he must crush the democracy after he crushes the insurgency.