What's new in Syria

[Schmelzer]

Good day for Syria again, the Kurds have liberated Shaddadi, a town in the East of Syria, and, by the way, cut some important communication lines of Daesh. How important these communication lines are for Daesh is hard to find out. It may be more important that this endangers the Daesh control of some important oil fields.

Another important advantage has been reached by the Syrian army against Daesh near the Kuweiris airport front. They have taken yet another village, Zalana, but a quite important one if one looks at the map - there is a canal through nearby, and the highway 4, with a bridge over the canal. And this bridge is now under control of the Syrian army. The point is that there are not many bridges over this canal. And all those under access of Daesh are located quite close to the village. The next one is 3 km away and also seems to be already under control of the Syrian army. So, it looks like Daesh has now a quite serious problem with the communication lines over this canal.

 

[Schmelzer]

Today is an even better day than yesterday, because the Syrian army has now encirled some part of Daesh:

And one can note from the start that this siege is a rather serious one: In the North, there is a canal full of water, something easy to observe and protect. In the East, there was, for a long time, the only route to supply the Kuweiris airport and everything around, and the only supply line is something one can expect to be protected in the best possible way. And they have had time to prepare their defenses.

By the way, the picture is not even accurate, on the twitter level the villages Fah and Safiah North of the Aleppo-Raqqa highway Nr. 4 have been taken by the Syrian army too. So, there is even a comfortable buffer zone around the highway Nr.4, the canal at the South and around 3 km in the North, and this gives a much more comfortable way to travel from Aleppo to the Kuweiris base already now. It is reasonable to guess that taking control of the whole highway 4 toward Kuweiris is now high priority, and on the twitter level they have already taken the industrial area which is South of the Eastern part of the Daesh controlled part of the highway, so even if this would be premature again this is an indication what they are now fighting for.

The next good news is that, I hope now really, the power plant has been taken by the Syrian army. This has been already discussed above, following premature twitter infos about this. If it is true now, it seems reasonable to expect that all the power lines toward Aleppo will be out of control of Daesh in short time too.

The Kurds also continue their advances some 15 km or so South-East of Shaddadi, taking villages named Adlya and Alva, which are already inside an oil-rich region, and, it seems, cutting yet another highway for Daesh. As well, the Syrian army continues to advance toward the Tabka airport too.

Last but not least, in Latakia the Syrian army does not seem to stop after taking Kinsabba and has liberated some villages in the neighborhood of Kisabba too, two of them North of Kinsabba. During the next days we can expect that they will reach the border of the province Idlib, splitting the part of Latakia controlled by terrorists into two parts.

 

[Schmelzer]

Another good day for Syria - the large pocket shown in the picture above is history - most of the Daesh fighters seem to have left the area before it has been encircled, and only a few fanatics have been left in the power plant, with some suicide attackers elsewhere, which have not been able to resist the attacking forces. So, just to see the difference of one day:

The Kurds have also made advantages at two fronts, first in the East, where they made further advances South of Al Shadadi and are moving toward the border of the Deir Ezzor governate. They are now already in oil-rich regions. They also made advances inside Aleppo itself, where they hold a small Kurdish enclave. Now they are in the process of extending this enclave, and have taken today a mosque and some station.

There are more villages takes by the Syrian army in Latakia too. They are already 1.5 km North of Kinsabba today, and one of it seems to be very close to the border to Idlib.

The Russian initiative has given the result I have expected: https://www.almasdarnews.com/articl...asefire-if-russia-continues-to-bomb-al-qaeda/ claims that the Saudi-backed opposition forces "expresses their willingness to implement a complete ceasefire with the government forces as long as Russia stops bombarding all rebel groups". This explicitly includes "Jabhat Al-Nusra (the Syrian Al-Qaeda group) and Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham". So, this makes it clear who is who.

Thus, or the West has to blame Russia for bombing Al Qaida, hm. Or it is the Syrian "moderate" opposition who is to blame that there will be no ceasefire.

I think this was the aim of the Russian ceasefire proposal - which, let's note, came after the US has accepted that Al Nusra is not moderate opposition. Now the whole Saudi-backed opposition is simply, and fairly, described under the cover "Al Qaida and friends".

There are also bad news - some terrorist attacks, with a lot of civilian casualties. One in Damascus, near a hospital. And another horrible terrorist attack in Homs. Civil victims also in Aleppo, where terrorists have shelled the Kurdish controlled Sheikh Maqsood neighbourhood.

 

[joepistole]

Another good day for Syria - the large pocket shown in the picture above is history - most of the Daesh fighters seem to have left the area before it has been encircled, and only a few fanatics have been left in the power plant, with some suicide attackers elsewhere, which have not been able to resist the attacking forces.

The Kurds have also made advantages at two fronts, first in the East, where they made further advances South of Al Shadadi and are moving toward the border of the Deir Ezzor governate. They are now already in oil-rich regions. They also made advances inside Aleppo itself, where they hold a small Kurdish enclave. Now they are in the process of extending this enclave, and have taken today a mosque and some station.

The Russian initiative has given the result I have expected: https://www.almasdarnews.com/articl...asefire-if-russia-continues-to-bomb-al-qaeda/ claims that the Saudi-backed opposition forces "expresses their willingness to implement a complete ceasefire with the government forces as long as Russia stops bombarding all rebel groups". This explicitly includes "Jabhat Al-Nusra (the Syrian Al-Qaeda group) and Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham". So, this makes it clear who is who.

Thus, or the West has to blame Russia for bombing Al Qaida, hm. Or it is the Syrian "moderate" opposition who is to blame that there will be no ceasefire.

I think this was the aim of the Russian ceasefire proposal - which, let's note, came after the US has accepted that Al Nusra is not moderate opposition. Now the whole Saudi-backed opposition is simply, and fairly, described under the cover "Al Qaida and friends".

LOL...I see you are back to promulgating for Assad and Putin. Russia's cease fire proposal....LOL...

 

[cosmictraveler]

Let us see who's who, if we can.

The Syrian military fighting for the dictator against the rebels, Iraq, Turkey and ISIS.
The rebels fighting for themselves against Assad and other rebels and ISIS.
ISIS fighting for themselves against everyone.
Iraqi military fighting for themselves against ISIS, the Syrian military and the Kurds.
The Kurds are fighting who knows who.
The American military fighting for rebels, although they don't know which rebels are the right rebels to fight with rather than against and ISIS.
The Russians fight the Iraqi's, Kurds , rebels, and ISIS.

So who gains what if this war persists? The problem I see is that one day very soon the Russians or Syrian military will bomb American military personnel located in Syria which could escalate this conflict into a outright war which to me already is but just hasn't been called that for unknown reasons. America is giving away where the American commandos are operating which to me is very dangerous for anyone could get that information to attack those commandos. That is why I never liked American troops into this conflict and only thought that Iraq could deal with ISIS themselves but alas they have no leaders that can do that so here America is again in a conflict that will never turn out right no matter who wins.

 

[joepistole]

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/30/opinion/thomas-friedman-syria-obama-and-putin.html

 

[Schmelzer]

The Russians don't fight the Kurds, they are, instead, supporting them. As long as the Americans do not fight the Syrian army, there is not that much danger for escalation.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/30/opinion/thomas-friedman-syria-obama-and-putin.html

Nice try, but the article does not get it that Putin has already won a war against Wahabi terroristis - and in this war the support of the Sunni was essential. It was a war between moderate traditional Sufi Islam (the traditional Sunni Chechen Islam) against the Wahabi sect supported by Saudi Arabia. This is another instance of the same war - moderate Sunni against Wahabi fanatics.

 

[joepistole]

The Russians don't fight the Kurds, they are, instead, supporting them. As long as the Americans do not fight the Syrian army, there is not that much danger for escalation.

Nice try, but the article does not get it that Putin has already won a war against Wahabi terroristis - and in this war the support of the Sunni was essential. It was a war between moderate traditional Sufi Islam (the traditional Sunni Chechen Islam) against the Wahabi sect supported by Saudi Arabia. This is another instance of the same war - moderate Sunni against Wahabi fanatics.

LOL....oh is that it. If Mother Putin has already won the war then why isn't he withdrawing his troops? Because the truth is the "war" isn't over, nor will it be over anytime soon.

Putin stupidly went into Syria and now he's bogged down just as he is in Ukraine and now he has made Russians once again the targets of terrorism. Putin's newest blunder has cost the Russian state even more blood and treasure. The question is, what will be the next stupid thing Putin does to preserve his power and feed his ego? What will become Putin's next sugar high?

 

[Schmelzer]

If Mother Putin has already won the war then why isn't he withdrawing his troops?

Why should he? The winners of the Chechen war are on the territory of the Russian federation.

Putin stupidly went into Syria and now he's bogged down just as he is in Ukraine and now he has made Russians once again the targets of terrorism. Putin's newest blunder has cost the Russian state even more blood and treasure.

It has already heavily reduced the number of Russian-speaking islamist fighters. One of their main regions was Latakia - it is close to their homes in the Kaukasus, so they were quite comfortable there. Coming back with the glory of winners of the Syrian war, they would have killed much more citizens of Russia than those killed in this terror attack on the airplane. Latakia is almost finished now, 5 months have been sufficient for this. Daesh was now running away in Eastern Aleppo, leaving a whole region without any protection. And all this with a quite small airpower, with one airbase being completely sufficient. And you name this "bogged down"?

 

[joepistole]

Why should he? The winners of the Chechen war are on the territory of the Russian federation.

Well we were talking about Syria...remember? We were not talking about Chechnya. So of Mother Russia has won, why are her troops still in Syria?

A stereotype of an average Chechen being a fundamentalist Muslim is incorrect and misleading.[52][53][54] By the late 2000s, however, two new trends have emerged in Chechnya. A radicalized remnant of the armed Chechen separatist movement has become dominated by Salafis(popularly known in Russia as Wahhabis and present in Chechnya in small numbers since the 1990s), mostly abandoning nationalism in favor ofPan-Islamism and merging with several other regional Islamic insurgencies to form the Caucasus Emirate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chechens#Religion

There has never been many Wahhabis in Chechnya so great victory Mother Putin!

It has already heavily reduced the number of Russian-speaking islamist fighters. One of their main regions was Latakia - it is close to their homes in the Kaukasus, so they were quite comfortable there. Coming back with the glory of winners of the Syrian war, they would have killed much more citizens of Russia than those killed in this terror attack on the airplane. Latakia is almost finished now, 5 months have been sufficient for this. Daesh was now running away in Eastern Aleppo, leaving a whole region without any protection. And all this with a quite small airpower, with one airbase being completely sufficient. And you name this "bogged down"?

Well a couple of things, not everyone is Daesh. And the fact is hundreds of Russians have been killed and continue to be killed. Putin is bogged down not only in Ukraine but in Syria as well - good job Mother Putin.

 

[Schmelzer]

Well we were talking about Syria...remember? We were not talking about Chechnya. So of Mother Russia has won, why are her troops still in Syria?

I have written "has already won a war" - this was not about the Syrian war, but a reference to the Chechen war.

A stereotype of an average Chechen being a fundamentalist Muslim is incorrect and misleading.[52][53][54] By the late 2000s, however, two new trends have emerged in Chechnya. A radicalized remnant of the armed Chechen separatist movement has become dominated by Salafis(popularly known in Russia as Wahhabis and present in Chechnya in small numbers since the 1990s), mostly abandoning nationalism in favor ofPan-Islamism and merging with several other regional Islamic insurgencies to form the Caucasus Emirate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chechens#Religion
There has never been many Wahhabis in Chechnya so great victory Mother Putin!

The great thing done by Putin was that he has reached a compromise with the Sufis to fight the Wahabis/Salafis. So the second Chechen war was not a war Russians against Chechens, but Russians and Sufis against Salafis.

Well a couple of things, not everyone is Daesh.

Salafis/Wahabis are not all Daesh. They are also Al Nusra and friends.

 

[Schmelzer]

This time the news are not good. The terrorists - in a nice cooperation between Daesh and various "moderate" rebels - have blocked again come parts of the road from Damascus to Aleppo. Let's hope that this will be finished faster than last time, when around two weeks have been necessary to solve the problem. Up to now, the problem seems quite serious, with Daesh having taken several points on the route.

 

[joepistole]

I have written "has already won a war" - this was not about the Syrian war, but a reference to the Chechen war.

Oh so you are switching stories. Putin won a war against a small number of Wahhabis in Chechnya....great victory!

The great thing done by Putin was that he has reached a compromise with the Sufis to fight the Wahabis/Salafis. So the second Chechen war was not a war Russians against Chechens, but Russians and Sufis against Salafis.

Oh, so that's his great victory, a compromise.

 

[Schmelzer]

Putin won a war against a small number of Wahhabis in Chechnya....great victory!
Oh, so that's his great victory, a compromise.

The result is that now Chechnya, which was a terrorist stronghold, is now a stronghold of Russia. And the Chechens there are ready to fight for Russia.

Instead, look at Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya, the great victories of America.

 

[joepistole]

The result is that now Chechnya, which was a terrorist stronghold, is now a stronghold of Russia. And the Chechens there are ready to fight for Russia.

LOL....WOW...a great victory over a handful of people.... Chechnya wasn't a terrorist stronghold. It was a rebel stronghold, and it isn't a Russian stronghold today. Russians are still a minority in Chechnya.

"But Yashin said that Putin's policy of giving Kadyrov a free hand in Chechnya in return for an end to all-out fighting now threatens to blow up in the Kremlin's face.

"Putin has put a time bomb in place in Chechnya that could lead to a third Chechen war or some other crisis," Yashin said.

The opposition estimates that Kadyrov now has some 30,000 fighters -- nominally under the control of Russia's interior ministry but actually loyal only to him -- under his personal command."

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...ional-security-threat/ar-BBpRzzl?ocid=UP21DHP

Instead, look at Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya, the great victories of America.

Yes, let's look at Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. Iraq is a self governing democracy as opposed to being brutal dictatorship thanks to American involvement. Afghanistan is no longer the lawless outback it was when Mother Russia fled the country with its tail between its legs decades ago. Not the lights come on every night, children are being educated, and there is relative order in the land. It is no longer the lawless harbor of terrorism it once was. And as you well know, US troops, aside from embassy guards, never set foot inside Libya. The US hasn't had ground troops inside Libya since WWII when it along with its British allies fought Nazi troops there. So you aren't being honest comrade.

 

[Schmelzer]

"But Yashin said that Putin's policy of giving Kadyrov a free hand in Chechnya in return for an end to all-out fighting now threatens to blow up in the Kremlin's face.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...ional-security-threat/ar-BBpRzzl?ocid=UP21DHP

Yes, the Russian "opposition" does not like Kadyrow.

Chechnya wasn't a terrorist stronghold. It was a rebel stronghold, and it isn't a Russian stronghold today. Russians are still a minority in Chechnya.

Of course, it was a stronghold of "rebels" like Shamil Bassajew who became famous for mass-murdering Georgians in the the Abkhasian independence war, and the Saudi Chatab. Of course, very nice guys, worth to be supported by the West.

Russians are even a very small minority in Chechnya. But the Chechens are on the Russian side. (But, of course, not on the side of the Russian opposition ;-) )

Yes, let's look at Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. Iraq is a self governing democracy as opposed to being brutal dictatorship thanks to American involvement. Afghanistan is no longer the lawless outback it was when Mother Russia fled the country with its tail between its legs decades ago. Not the lights come on every night, children are being educated, and there is relative order in the land. It is no longer the lawless harbor of terrorism it once was. And as you well know, US troops, aside from embassy guards, never set foot inside Libya. The US hasn't had ground troops inside Libya since WWII when it along with its British allies fought Nazi troops there. So you aren't being honest comrade.

These claims can be left without comment, they are self-commenting.

But about Afghanistan "no longer the lawless outback" I cannot resist to give a nice link: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB1269.pdf

 

[joepistole]

Yes, the Russian "opposition" does not like Kadyrow.

Of course, it was a stronghold of "rebels" like Shamil Bassajew who became famous for mass-murdering Georgians in the the Abkhasian independence war, and the Saudi Chatab. Of course, very nice guys, worth to be supported by the West.

Russians are even a very small minority in Chechnya. But the Chechens are on the Russian side. (But, of course, not on the side of the Russian opposition ;-) )

The fact is comrade, Chechnya isn't the "Russian stronghold" you have represented it to be. Chechens are on the Chechen side, and per the article I referenced have largely tolerated Putin. They have a mutually beneficial relationship that may no withstand time.

These claims can be left without comment, they are self-commenting.

But about Afghanistan "no longer the lawless outback" I cannot resist to give a nice link: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB1269.pdf

True enough, because they are true. The fact is Afghanistan is a much more civilized place today, that it was before the US invasion. It remains an underdeveloped country. But the country is far better off today, than it was before the US invaded and rooted out al-Qaeda terrorists and Bin Ladin. And the truth is, the US hasn't had troops on the ground in Libya since WWII. And it's also a fact that Iraq is now an independent democratic state. Now I know you don't like democracies. But the fact is Iraq is now a self-governing democracy.

 

[Schmelzer]

Given the ceasefire in Syria, which, according to different sources, seems to hold, the most interesting question is where we have a ceasefire and where we have not. We have no ceasefire with Daesh, this is more or less clear, and the regions which are controlled by Daesh are quite well-defined. The situation is much worse with Al Qaida in Syria, Al Nusra. It controls a lot, because it is, after Daesh, the most powerful terrorist group. But it also controls in an indirect way, as a participant in many fronts and unions of various rebel formations. Nusra is officially excluded from the ceasefire, and, as a natural consequence, also all these fronts where Nusra participates. Some of them, I have no information how much, have openly rejected any ceasefire. The number of rebel organizations which have accepted the ceasefire sounds great, the number 97 was given, but what I have heard about the overall number of rebel formations was something more than 300. Clearly this number cannot tell us much, one would have to know if among those 97 are some really important participants.

Whatever, there are some parts where we have ceasefire. The policy of Assad's side was, obviously, to start a general ceasefire (without even promising it), at the first day without any Russian or Syrian airplanes, and to react to ceasefire violations from the other side. They were sure that they would not have to wait a long time until Nusra continues fighting. And, indeed, as in Aleppo, as in Damascus they did not wait long until they shelled civilian quarters, and in some other parts the fighting is ongoing too. Turks and Nusra continue to shell Kurds in Northern Aleppo. But, given that the regions of fighting are not really those where a ceasefire has been expected to work, but those where the enemy was Nusra anyway, this tells nothing about a failure of the ceasefire.

So, let's look at some parts where we have no ceasefire. Here, the usual picture continues. In Latakia, where the SAA fights a conglomerate of FSA, Al Nusra, Turkish fascists (gray wolves) and groups of foreigners, in particular Chechens, the fighting continues and the SAA has taken some mountains and heights near the Turkish border as well as the village Saraf. The fighting continues around Aleppo. It also continues in East Ghouta near Damascus.

Instead, in Ibta seems to have happened a greater reconciliation action, with a lot of people (1200 or so) leaving Ibta and returning to some government jobs in government-controlled regions.

 

[joepistole]

Given the ceasefire in Syria, which, according to different sources, seems to hold, the most interesting question is where we have a ceasefire and where we have not. We have no ceasefire with Daesh, this is more or less clear, and the regions which are controlled by Daesh are quite well-defined. The situation is much worse with Al Qaida in Syria, Al Nusra. It controls a lot, because it is, after Daesh, the most powerful terrorist group. But it also controls in an indirect way, as a participant in many fronts and unions of various rebel formations. Nusra is officially excluded from the ceasefire, and, as a natural consequence, also all these fronts where Nusra participates. Some of them, I have no information how much, have openly rejected any ceasefire. The number of rebel organizations which have accepted the ceasefire sounds great, the number 97 was given, but what I have heard about the overall number of rebel formations was something more than 300. Clearly this number cannot tell us much, one would have to know if among those 97 are some really important participants.

Whatever, there are some parts where we have ceasefire. The policy of Assad's side was, obviously, to start a general ceasefire (without even promising it), at the first day without any Russian or Syrian airplanes, and to react to ceasefire violations from the other side. They were sure that they would not have to wait a long time until Nusra continues fighting. And, indeed, as in Aleppo, as in Damascus they did not wait long until they shelled civilian quarters, and in some other parts the fighting is ongoing too. Turks and Nusra continue to shell Kurds in Northern Aleppo. But, given that the regions of fighting are not really those where a ceasefire has been expected to work, but those where the enemy was Nusra anyway, this tells nothing about a failure of the ceasefire.

So, let's look at some parts where we have no ceasefire. Here, the usual picture continues. In Latakia, where the SAA fights a conglomerate of FSA, Al Nusra, Turkish fascists (gray wolves) and groups of foreigners, in particular Chechens, the fighting continues and the SAA has taken some mountains and heights near the Turkish border as well as the village Saraf. The fighting continues around Aleppo. It also continues in East Ghouta near Damascus.

Instead, in Ibta seems to have happened a greater reconciliation action, with a lot of people (1200 or so) leaving Ibta and returning to some government jobs in government-controlled regions.

Well, one of them many problems with Mother Russia is that she and her ally Assad seem to have a great deal of difficulty understanding the difference between terrorists like ISIS and non terrorists Syrian dissenters. You suffer from the same affliction.

 

[Schmelzer]

Well, one of them many problems with Mother Russia is that she and her ally Assad seem to have a great deal of difficulty understanding the difference between terrorists like ISIS and non terrorists Syrian dissenters. You suffer from the same affliction.

Above want an islamic state with Sharia, above want to murder Alawites, Shiites, Christians, above like to murder and headcut prisoners, so, indeed, I do not see a difference.

There are, of course, some differences. Daesh is supported onlz by Turkey and Saudi Arabia, the other ones are supported by US and EU.