What's new in Syria

[Schmelzer]

The parts of Aleppo which are under control of "rebels" are mainly under Al Nusra control. Why should Assad start infighting with Al Nusra in a large city, which would certainly give only negative Western press about his hitting poor civilians, hundreds of hospitals and nice opposition? Because of some proposal for a ceasefire which explicitly excludes Al Nusra?

I think this is a nice game of Lawrow. Assad is ready to make a ceasefire with everybody who is not affiliated with Al Nusra, to be shown by explicitly distancing themself from Al Nusra. Nobody except a few FSA parts which play no role on the ground agrees to this, and Western diplomacy has failed yet another time.

The problems with humanitarian aid will not be solved. Around Deir Ezzor we have ISIS, around Kafya and Fu'a we have Al Nusra, thus, there will nothing change, what remains is propaganda, with examples where the main problem is that the encircled "rebels" control all the humanitarian food supplies and sell it for astronomic prices.

So, the only chance for your prediction I see in some unconfirmed twitter messages who claim that most of the "rebels" would agree with switching sides. That would be nice, but I don't believe them, because what I have heard is that many if not all of the checkpoints where are Al Nusra controlled.

 

[CptBork]

I'd be very happy to see a ceasefire followed by a genuine democratic process eventually leading to a political transition, but I have a hard time believing Russia has any serious interest in such a proposal. For now the bombing continues, little aid is getting through, almost a week still left for Assad to make gains on the ground and there's no guarantee his side will even respect the ceasefire whenever it's supposed to commence.

A ceasefire as currently envisioned would give Assad's moderate opponents vital time to re-arm, resupply, retrain, recruit, while the focus would be placed on eliminating extremist factions which Assad and Putin need to keep in place in order to blur the lines of conflict. The moderate opposition would merely have to negotiate in good faith and wait things out until Russia's impending bankruptcy forces it to withdraw, at which point they will be free to topple Assad and give him a rusty metal enema.

 

[joepistole]

I'd be very happy to see a ceasefire followed by a genuine democratic process eventually leading to a political transition, but I have a hard time believing Russia has any serious interest in such a proposal. For now the bombing continues, little aid is getting through, almost a week still left for Assad to make gains on the ground and there's no guarantee his side will even respect the ceasefire whenever it's supposed to commence.

A ceasefire as currently envisioned would give Assad's moderate opponents vital time to re-arm, resupply, retrain, recruit, while the focus would be placed on eliminating extremist factions which Assad and Putin need to keep in place in order to blur the lines of conflict. The moderate opposition would merely have to negotiate in good faith and wait things out until Russia's impending bankruptcy forces it to withdraw, at which point they will be free to topple Assad and give him a rusty metal enema.

Assad doesn't appear to understand the terms. He thinks the truce doesn't apply to him. So, it will be interesting to see of the truce materializes. Mother Russia may have to put the guy under house arrest.

 

[Schmelzer]

You confuse a lot of things. Given that ISIS as well as Al Nusra are explicitly excluded from the ceasefire, the ceasefire is in no way a serious restriction for Assad. In almost all the parts which are not controlled by ISIS, but controlled by "rebels", the main rebel fraction is Al Nusra. And even if it is not the main fraction, it is or part of an islamist front (which is, therefore, also excluded) or at least tolerated. So, essentially all the fronts where Assad is fighting remain fronts where he is allowed to fight.

 

[Yazata]

A short term prediction:
By 1 March almost all of Aleppo will be in the Syrian government control. I.e. Putin has proposed 1 March as start of a new cease fire. (Because he thinks, with his bombing the government forces will control Aleppo by then.)

I doubt.

So do I. Taking the rebel held parts of Aleppo would require large-scale street-fighting and would probably take a lot more time than a week. I'm not sure that the Syrian army wants to be drawn into that. What they may try to do is encircle the rebel held parts of the city and reduce them to surrounded pockets. The ceasefire deal does seem to have some provision for that, since it talks about getting food and humanitarian supplies into surrounded areas.

Right now, the Syrians' main thrust seems to me to be to the north of Aleppo towards the Turkish border. The main fighting seems to be at a small town called Tal Rif'at. A few days ago negotiations were underway for the rebels to surrender it to the Syrians, but that seems to have broken down and yesterday the Russians were launching airstrikes in the area and apparently there's fighting in the town today. Interestingly, the Kurds seem to be fighting the rebels just west of Azaz, the other large town in the area. My sense is that the emphasis in the next week will be on reducing this rebel-held enclave up to the Turkish border if possible.

http://www.edmaps.com/html/northern_aleppo_-_february_12_.html

Because I doubt that any ceasefire with any non-islamistic forces will change much on the ground.

"While the ceasefire will require the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and the non-jihadist forces to cease hostilities with one another; this is not the case with Islamist groups like Jabhat Al-Nusra (Syrian Al-Qaeda group), Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham, and the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham (ISIS)."
http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-ceasefire-to-begin-in-one-week/

So what, who is left? Nothing relevant, all the so-called "rebels" cooperate with Al Nusra. All one can hope for is to create some split on the "rebel" side, that some parts stop to cooperate with Al Nusra to get a ceasefire. But those will be immediately fought by Nusra itself

The 'moderate' rebels seem to be cooperating with the Islamists very closely these days and they fight alongside each other. So I see this 'ceasefire' breaking down almost immediately. The Syrians will continue to fight and the Russians will continue to bomb a combined rebel force that American news media will call 'moderate rebels' and the Syrians and Russians will call 'terrorists'. The Americans will say that the evil lying Syrians and Russians are violating the cease-fire, and the Syrians and Russians will say that they are doing work that the smug and meddlesome Americans should be doing by fighting the radical Islamists who weren't included in the deal. So the whole thing looks to me like it's doomed to break down in mutual condemnations.

The other possibility is what you suggest, a split on the rebel side between the 'moderates' and the Islamists, with the former distancing themselves from the latter. I don't foresee that happening.

 

[CptBork]

Assad doesn't appear to understand the terms. He thinks the truce doesn't apply to him. So, it will be interesting to see of the truce materializes. Mother Russia may have to put the guy under house arrest.

If Assad doesn't abide by the terms of this supposed ceasefire, Russia will simply argue that his opponents are all ISIS and Al Nusra like Schmelzer does, and continue with business as usual while Kerry and his European allies stand there picking their noses.

 

[Schmelzer]

http://www.nationalinterest.org/feature/why-assads-army-has-not-defected-15190 is an interesting article about why Assads army has not defected.

Positive news today from several fronts, three villages in Latakia, Ara Kafrta und Balla, they are moving toward Kinsabba. In Northern Aleppo a small village South of Zahra has been taken, important because it is a hill village which oversees nearby greater villages Hayane and Anadan. Al Nusra has, on the other hand, send reinforcements from Hama toward Aleppo. In East Aleppo Jabal al Kalb has been retaken, one of the villages lost last week after ISIS has send large reinforcements into this region for a counteroffensive. Now, all the counteroffensive has given was one village - As Sin - with the Syrian army having taken during the same time the village Barlehin North of it, thus, not much.

Then, there seems to be some progress in the new direction toward Raqqa. Some important crossroad has been taken.

If Assad doesn't abide by the terms of this supposed ceasefire, Russia will simply argue that his opponents are all ISIS and Al Nusra like Schmelzer does, and continue with business as usual while Kerry and his European allies stand there picking their noses.

May be you want to collect and present here some evidence about regions which are controlled by "rebels" which do not cooperate with Al Nusra? I doubt, I think you will cry "Assad violated ceasefire" whenever a single IS or Al Nusra fighter is hit. But prove me wrong.

 

[CptBork]

May be you want to collect and present here some evidence about regions which are controlled by "rebels" which do not cooperate with Al Nusra?

I doubt, I think you will cry "Assad violated ceasefire" whenever a single IS or Al Nusra fighter is hit.

But prove me wrong.

You're setting an impossible task before me. By your definition Assad is leading the fight against ISIS and Al Nusra, and therefore anyone who fights against the former is cooperating with the latter, even if they're fighting against both sides at the same time.

Russia allied with and assisted Saddam Hussein after the first Gulf War, and now Hussein's former military officers are the ones responsible for ISIS's tactical successes. If your excuse is that Russia had no other allies in Iraq to cooperate with under US domination, how would it be different for moderate rebels whose supply lines are all controlled by either Assad or Al Qaida? When the bombing stops and Assad accepts a ceasefire, that's when we can determine who's cooperating with who and what to do about it.

 

[cosmictraveler]

Syria is controlled by a dictator so no one can oppose him. The rebels that do not like him have their own agenda they want to be used in Syria but they don't have enough people supporting them or they would have won the battle already. Then you have ISIS which is another entity that wants to control Syria but it too doesn't have a chance due to lack of people working for it. So which of the three is best for Syria? It seems Russia has already shown who they want to control the country by giving allot of military support to Assad. America has thrown its support to the rebels who want their own way of controlling Syria through what they claim is democracy but , to me, is just another faction of wanna be to get more money for themselves and their ilk. The rebels are just as bad as the dictator and ISIS are so there isn't much going to change there. Just look at Iraq and what it has evolved into. So it really is a no win situation for anyone for they all are destroying their own country one way or another.

I'd just leave the Syrian people do what they want to do with their own country and not waste any more ammo on trying to save Syria from itself. I would however try to keep attacking ISIS if at all possible but by striking outside of Syria and let Russia and Assad deal with that mess. It isn't going to be much of a win if the rebels take over for the forces aliened to Assad will continue to fight on even after they lose control. I'm don't for anyone for there isn't a good outcome no matter what happens for the people of Syria.

 

[Schmelzer]

You're setting an impossible task before me. By your definition Assad is leading the fight against ISIS and Al Nusra, and therefore anyone who fights against the former is cooperating with the latter, even if they're fighting against both sides at the same time.
...how would it be different for moderate rebels whose supply lines are all controlled by either Assad or Al Qaida?

First, there have been enough areas near borders of supporting countries: Turkey, Israel, Jordania have all supported various groups of "rebels" and continue this (Jordania is said to deliver much less now, but this does not mean nothing). So, there could have been a lot of direct support for non-Nusra fighters, and it would have been easy for them to control areas near these borders. The problem is that there is a lot of Nusra near the borders, because Nusra is supported by these neighbour countries, especially by Turkey.

Then, my challenge is far from impossible, there is known to be a lot of fighting among the various terrorist groups, for example such fights between various terrorist groups played a role during the fight for Sheikh Miskeen, where Nusra was one of the participants. Similarly, in the nearby Ibta the local were ready to surrender to Assad, in exchange for an amnesty, and Nusra has prevented this deal.

The challenge remains - find territories controlled by "rebels" who actually fight against IS as well as Al Nusra. I know about three - all three parts controlled by the Kurds.

Syria is controlled by a dictator so no one can oppose him. The rebels that do not like him have their own agenda they want to be used in Syria but they don't have enough people supporting them or they would have won the battle already. Then you have ISIS which is another entity that wants to control Syria but it too doesn't have a chance due to lack of people working for it. So which of the three is best for Syria?

There is a peaceful legal opposition in Syria. They have even held recently a conference in Damascus, at the same time when there was one in Saudi Arabia and one by the pro-Kurdish forces. Then, there is nothing close to a united force named "rebels". There are hundreds of such groups. There are a lot of alliances of such groups. And those among them who do not want a fundamentalist Sharia state are a clear minority among these rebels.

Assad and the Kurds are the two big forces who want a secular state, IS and Al Nusra the to big forces who want an extremal Sharia state. The Kurds are an example that fighting together with Assad against IS and Al Nusra is possible. If there are other rebel forces ready for a ceasefire with Assad to fight IS and Al Nusra together, this will be possible too. The straightforward way would be for them to join SDF, which is the US cover for the Kurds and other forces who receive some US support. This means, of course, full war with Al Nusra, and they will be in danger from Turkish artillery if they fight near the Turkish border against Al Nusra. On the other hand, they get Russian air support against Al Nusra.

 

[Oystein]

I'm don't for anyone for there isn't a good outcome no matter what happens for the people of Syria.

What the heck does that mean? In other threads you whine that IQ tests aren't able to detect how brilliant you are. Well, that "sentence" you just wrote says something about you . . .

 

[joepistole]

You confuse a lot of things. Given that ISIS as well as Al Nusra are explicitly excluded from the ceasefire, the ceasefire is in no way a serious restriction for Assad. In almost all the parts which are not controlled by ISIS, but controlled by "rebels", the main rebel fraction is Al Nusra. And even if it is not the main fraction, it is or part of an islamist front (which is, therefore, also excluded) or at least tolerated. So, essentially all the fronts where Assad is fighting remain fronts where he is allowed to fight.

I don't think so comrade, the only one who has demonstrated confusion and consistently demonstrated confusion is you comrade.

The proof is in the pudding. We will see how this works out, but thus far it appears Assad doesn't seem to understand the rules. And if this truce is to stick, Mother Russia may have to put their man (i.e. Assad) under house arrest and take over what remains of his regime which would sink Mother Russia deeper into the quagmire - a quagmire it can ill afford.

Below is a current chart, as one can see, most of Mother Russia's attacks occurred early on and have been against rebel targets rather than ISIS and other terrorist targets.

 

[Schmelzer]

The map does not make much sense. The claim that a whole week Russia has bombed only in Latakia and Daraa is unbelievable.
Here is the MoD briefing at 1.February

about the week before. It claims 468 flights hitting 1354 target in the provinces Aleppo, Latakia, Damascus, Hama, Homs, Deir Ezzor and Raqqa. During the briefing details about some of the attacks have been given.

 

[joepistole]

The map does not make much sense. The claim that a whole week Russia has bombed only in Latakia and Daraa is unbelievable.
Here is the MoD briefing at 1.February

about the week before. It claims 468 flights hitting 1354 target in the provinces Aleppo, Latakia, Damascus, Hama, Homs, Deir Ezzor and Raqqa. During the briefing details about some of the attacks have been given.

Welcome to reality comrade. It does make sense.

 

[Schmelzer]

The day seems to be a quite successful one.

First of all, several advances in Northern Latakia. At least three villages seem to be liberated. According to other sources even five. All at different directions on the way to Kinsabba. Some people are guessing now which way Kinsabba will be attacked, my guess is that something similar to Salma and Rabia is planned - to encircle it and then to attack it from several sides. As usual, leaving one side open for the terrorists to run away. So, the villages Mazin and Fazin are on the way from the West, Ara and Kfarta from South-West, Brouma from South. Touma, liberated a day earlier, is South-East.

Then, there is some progress in Eastern Aleppo, where the Syrian army has attacked the village Tayba and controls now some part of it, fighting ongoing.

The Kurds have, despite Turkish artillery support for the terrorists, taken another village, Ayn Dakna, which is important because it is located on the street between Azaz and Tal Rifat. In Tal Rifat they have also reached the Western part and have been able to take some buildings.

Some progress has been reached also on the long way of the new offensive in direction of Raqqa. To be clear, Raqqa is yet far far away, and anyway only a far outlook, the real aim of this offensive is the Tabka airport, and it is also yet far away. But what has been taken was named a "crossroad" which has been used up to now as the primary supply route from Raqqa to Akerbat. Of course, there will be other supply routes, but longer supply routes create problems, and make it easier for RuAF to damage them.

 

[Schmelzer]

Today, the Kurds have continued to attack and make progress. First, they have taken Kafr Naya - this village was already under control of the Syrian army, but the jihadists had retaken it, but only for a short time, now the Kurds have taken this village. Fine, they can now attack Tal Rifat also from the South. Instead, the SAA has gone East of Kafr Naya, taken a village named Meskan, and after this Ahrad. Further East is already Daesh. In Tal Rifat themself the fight is ongoing, the Kurds have taken parts of the West, the North, and the train station. North of Tal Rifat, on the street to Aziz, the Kurds have taken now two villages, Kafr Kashir and Ayn Dakna, and go East, toward Kalyhibrin. This endangers the last street connection between Tal Rifat and Azaz.

Some claims have appeared that Tal Rifat has been taken by the Kurds. Fine, but I don't trust yet. Whatever, it seems the Kurds decided to finish first all except Azaz, leaving Azaz, where they would be confronted with heavy Turkish artillery support, as the last thing to do, when everything else is finished. Now they simply encircle it. The Syrian Army doesn't mind, there is no reason to make a race with the Kurds toward Azaz, they may prefer if there is a lot of conflict between US-allied Kurds and Turks than have the conflict with the Kurds itself. Whatever, the whole corridor reduces very fast to nothing, and it seems that in short time the Kurds will come into contact with Daesh and the North of Aleppo will be free of Al Qaida.

Another progress has been reached near Kuweiris, Eastern Aleppo, against Daesh. The status of the village As Sin is now unclear, some claim there are ongoing fights, but it seems it has been taken by the Syrian army. Whatever, there seems agreement that Tayba has been taken, and this seems quite important because at its South end there is a bridge over a canal, and there is also agreement that the Syrian army has taken some places on the other side of the canal, in particular some hill which can have some strategic importance, because it is immediately near the road Nr. 4 from Aleppo toward East. And very close to this place is the Aleppo power station, which is considered to be the most important thing in the whole area. So, the Syrian army is now 300 m away from this important point.

And, last but not least, there have been also further advances in Latakia. The fortress Kinsabba is now 1.5 km North of the frontline. This last part will be, of course, the most difficult one, uphill. We will see how long this will last. Some hill near the Turkish border in the North has been taken. So, small progress on several parts of this front.

 

[Schmelzer]

Another good day for Syria.

The Syrian army has entered the Thermal Powerplant of Aleppo, and Daesh seems to have left the area. This powerplant was considered by many commentators as a point of central importance, so I have expected that it will be heavily defended. But, it seems, as in the case of the Tishreen dam, I was wrong. If one thinks about this - what is a key object for rational fighters may be not important at all for Daesh fighters. Whatever, this plant is the source of electricity of Aleppo, so this is a good day for Aleppo.

The other good news are the advantages of the Syrian army in Latakia. Again we have a list of four or five villages, now already very close to Kinsabba - the next neighbour villages South and West of Kinsabba among them. Now, Kinsabba will be attacked.

And in Northern Aleppo there are also good news. The Kurds have not only taken Kafr Naseh, and, therefore, reached the Daesh frontlines, they seem to have reached also some agreement that the town Marea will be left by the "moderate rebels" without fight. It seems, the village Sheikh Isa on the way from Tal Rifaat to Masea or is already under Kurdish control or part of the agreement too. Let's hope that this agreement will be realized.

Marea is after Azaz the most important town in the Northern part of Aleppo which was under control of the so-called "rebels", and it borders with the Daesh-controlled region. So, there is one front more - Kurds from Afrin against Daesh - and one front less - Syrian army against the remains of Al Nusra and friends in the North of Aleppo. This is, I would say, yet another nightmare for Erdogan, one step toward cutting the connection between Turkey and Daesh and connecting the two Kurdish regions.

 

[Yazata]

The Syrian army has entered the Thermal Powerplant of Aleppo, and Daesh seems to have left the area. This powerplant was considered by many commentators as a point of central importance, so I have expected that it will be heavily defended. But, it seems, as in the case of the Tishreen dam, I was wrong. If one thinks about this - what is a key object for rational fighters may be not important at all for Daesh fighters. Whatever, this plant is the source of electricity of Aleppo, so this is a good day for Aleppo.

The power lines from the plant to the city still run through areas controlled by Islamic State.

My impression is that this might be a case of 'discretion is the best part of valor'. If the ISIS fighters realized that they were outnumbered and were short of ammunition, they might have decided that it was smarter to withdraw from the powerplant than to waste their forces in a lost cause. If true that would suggest that they aren't treating all of their fighters as if they were fanatical suicide bombers, told to fight to the death, and instead are trying to conserve them. Many of them might be local recruits and not foreign religious fanatics.

And in Northern Aleppo there are also good news. The Kurds have not only taken Kafr Naseh, and, therefore, reached the Daesh frontlines, they seem to have reached also some agreement that the town Marea will be left by the "moderate rebels" without fight.

If so, that would be an example of the same thing. We will know very quickly.

Marea is after Azaz the most important town in the Northern part of Aleppo which was under control of the so-called "rebels", and it borders with the Daesh-controlled region. So, there is one front more - Kurds from Afrin against Daesh - and one front less - Syrian army against the remains of Al Nusra and friends in the North of Aleppo.

These latest developments may signal that the Syrian army is out of the battle in the Tal Ri'fat/Azaz area. To reach the rebels, they would have to pass through Kurdish lines.

This is, I would say, yet another nightmare for Erdogan, one step toward cutting the connection between Turkey and Daesh and connecting the two Kurdish regions.

Erdogan won't admit it publicly, but I think that he likes the short border between Turkey and Islamic State in the Al Bab/Manbij area. There's lots of back and forth traffic between Turkey and ISIS there. It's basically the only peaceful border crossing that Islamic state has since they are fighting all of their other neighbors in their crazy jihad against the whole world. It's where foreign fighters transit from Turkey into (and out of) the Islamic State. It's Islamic State's source of everything they can't produce themselves. I'm guessing that a number of Turks are getting rich on the Islamic State trade.

http://www.edmaps.com/Battle_for_Northern_Syria_January_5_4AM.png

Erdogan is much more hostile to the Kurds than he is to ISIS. (The Kurds are running an insurgency in his country and calling for independence from Turkey. ISIS haven't attacked Turkey, they are fighting the Kurds and are fighting the Shi'ites in Iraq and the Alawites in Syria, so they are allies in the bigger Sunni/Shia confrontation.) The Turks have already announced that they won't allow the Kurds in Afrin to link up with the Kurds east of the Euphrates. If the Kurds try to move against Manbij and al Bab, we might actually see the Turkish army intervening on the side of ISIS to prevent the linkup.

That would put Washington DC and the European capitals in a very difficult situation. They could break with an ostensible NATO ally or they could watch their anti-Islamic State campaign unravel.

 

[Schmelzer]

The power lines from the plant to the city still run through areas controlled by Islamic State.

Yes. But there was some agreement with Daesh that the electricity will not be disrupted, nor for the loyalists, nor for the rebel, nor for the Daesh regions, everybody pays for electricity, of course, and nobody bombs the powerplant.

And there was some problem with this, because the US has attacked the powerplant (attacking Daesh, of course), which has led to power disruption in Aleppo as a whole. I'm not aware about the actual state of this - how serious the damage was, and if electricity has been restored.

By the way, it seems that the claims of taking the powerplant have been premature, actually it is claimed that there are fights around it.

(On the other hand, even more progress from Latakia, with two hills taken, one on the way toward the Turkish border North of the M4 highway, one South-East of Kinsabba.)

That would put Washington DC and the European capitals in a very difficult situation. They could break with an ostensible NATO ally or they could watch their anti-Islamic State campaign unravel.

Yes. This is what http://www.moonofalabama.org/2016/02/the-race-to-raqqa-a-syrian-campaign-plan.html names the "race to Raqqa". The US thought that they could use the Kurds, but the Kurds have no interest in Raqqa, its Arabic, but are much more interested in the Al Bab-Manbij region which is Kurdish. And the Russians like this very much - they support the Kurds in this region as much as they can, frustrating Erdogan. And they have started their own expedition toward Raqqa.

The Kurds would be much closer, but are not interested. The Turks and the Saudis are far away.

Personally I don't believe that much that this is a race to Raqqa. I think the prior intention of the offensive below is simply to cut the Daesh near the Tabka airport into parts. This would, anyway, close the way for Erdogan to Raqqa through Daesh territory. They would need an open aggression against Syria or the Kurds after this. The way from the South for the Saudis would be even more difficult, given Deir Ezzor being on the way.

 

[joepistole]

The power lines from the plant to the city still run through areas controlled by Islamic State.

Erdogan is much more hostile to the Kurds than he is to ISIS. (The Kurds are running an insurgency in his country and calling for independence from Turkey. ISIS haven't attacked Turkey, they are fighting the Kurds and are fighting the Shi'ites in Iraq and the Alawites in Syria, so they are allies in the bigger Sunni/Shia confrontation.) The Turks have already announced that they won't allow the Kurds in Afrin to link up with the Kurds east of the Euphrates. If the Kurds try to move against Manbij and al Bab, we might actually see the Turkish army intervening on the side of ISIS to prevent the linkup.

That would put Washington DC and the European capitals in a very difficult situation. They could break with an ostensible NATO ally or they could watch their anti-Islamic State campaign unravel.

I think that's more hope on your part than reality. While there is no love between Kurds and Turkey, it's not like there is a lot of love between Turkey and ISIS either.
http://www.newsweek.com/turkey-atta...dead-iraq-syria-islamic-state-istanbul-415852