The Trump Presidency

[Quantum Quack]

Look at the last two and a half weeks in this thread: While most who pay attention to history recognize the "agreement" signed in Singapore is even less substantial than failed agreements of the past, why not presume this is the one that will work?

It may inevitably fail ... true.
However this is NK's last chance at averting a rock solid ultimatum situation that their possession of nukes is forcing them towards.
I think the Pentagon has much to say on what Trump's role in all this was or is.....
At least they can claim to have tried to avert a catastrophic intervention.

 

[Quantum Quack]

News:
The US ambassador to Estonia has resigned over frustrations with President Donald Trump's comments about the European Union and his treatment of Washington's European allies.

In a private Facebook message posted on Friday, James D Melville wrote: "For the President to say EU was 'set up to take advantage of the United States, to attack our piggy bank,' or that 'NATO is as bad as NAFTA [the North American Free Trade Agreement]' is not only factually wrong, but proves to me that it's time to go."
src: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-...ad-us-ambassador-to-estonia-to-resign/9927928

 

[Tiassa]

However this is NK's last chance at averting a rock solid ultimatum situation that their possession of nukes is forcing them towards.

People need to remember, this is Donald Trump we're talking about. I mean, in some other American dimension ... that is ... I mean ...—

in re North Korea: Ken Dilanian, Charles M. Blow, and Paul Krugman in Twitter result, 30 June 2018.​

—it's just that this is Donald Trump. Of course he got played. That's the art of the deal.

 

[Quantum Quack]

Interestingly I believe there were reports of evidence that enrichment facilities underwent an upgrade just prior to the summit. Satellite imagery taken after the summit suggested a couple of new relatively small buildings where constructed.
Objectively, it appears to be inconclusive as to what NK is up to. The enrichment facilities appear to be dormant and the extra buildings may actually be to house any International Compliance inspection team.

Consider that Trump did what he was told to do, and sets NK up to break any agreement reached at their own risk.
The international optics (including China) would be:
"Well... NK did agree to this and that but have since reneged, therefore the USA has every right to be pissed off and are justified in launching a military intervention."

The stakes have never been higher for NK and reneging this time would be incredibly foolish. IMO.

Other wise yeah Trump got played big time...

 

[iceaura]

However this is NK's last chance at averting a rock solid ultimatum situation that their possession of nukes is forcing them towards.

From NK's pov, their choice might easily appear to be between the fate of Iraq and Libya and the fate of Pakistan and India and China and Israel.
Voluntary disarmament under US pressure has had some cautionary outcomes.
This is where something like honest and fair dealing with Iran - legitimate diplomacy, however coercive and hostile - might have some effect.

For that the US would need allies, treaties, deals, and a functional State Department complete with ambassadors and stuff. The Pentagon isn't much help.

The international optics (including China) would be:
"Well... NK did agree to this and that but have since reneged, therefore the USA has every right to be pissed off and are justified in launching a military intervention."

China is not going to regard US military assault on NK as "justified", under any circumstances much less some babble-fronted excuse based on the recent non-agreement.

 

[Quantum Quack]

And if NK launches any missiles for what ever reason, what do u think would happen?
(M)

 

[iceaura]

And if NK launches any missiles for what ever reason, what do u think would happen?
(M)

You mean nuclear, and aimed at someone? They are defensive weapons, nukes - the only realistic circumstances of launch would in reaction to a perceived assault on NK. So China would be involved already, and all bets would be off.

Btw: some reports last week suggested that the last nuke testing collapsed the mountain it was under, burying their testing facilities. So we expect a pause in NK nuke testing regardless of what anybody, like Trump, does.

 

[Bells]

Interestingly I believe there were reports of evidence that enrichment facilities underwent an upgrade just prior to the summit. Satellite imagery taken after the summit suggested a couple of new relatively small buildings where constructed.
Objectively, it appears to be inconclusive as to what NK is up to. The enrichment facilities appear to be dormant and the extra buildings may actually be to house any International Compliance inspection team.

It was not just prior.

The upgrades began before the summit and has been ramped up.

And it is not just "a couple of new relatively small buildings":

Infrastructure improvements at the Yongbyon nuclear plant, which is used to fuel the country’s weapons program, are “continuing at a rapid pace,” according to analysis by monitoring group 38 North. The upgrades include the modification of a cooling system for the plutonium production reactor, at least two new non-industrial buildings, and a new engineering office building.​

Consider that Trump did what he was told to do, and sets NK up to break any agreement reached at their own risk.

Who "told" Trump to do this?

Because it is well known and established that Trump has acted on his own, without any advice or instructions from Congress, who were taken by surprise at the concessions Trump made to Kim Jong Un and getting nothing but a photo op in return.

The international optics (including China) would be:
"Well... NK did agree to this and that but have since reneged, therefore the USA has every right to be pissed off and are justified in launching a military intervention."

Ya, China would be all hunky dory with the US attacking a neighbour on its border...

The stakes have never been higher for NK and reneging this time would be incredibly foolish. IMO.

There is no actual deal. Just vague and empty comments.

So what has North Korea actually reneged on? Can you please be specific?

Other wise yeah Trump got played big time...

No!

Really?!? [Insert my shocked face here..]

He didn't get played. Trump was going for a Nobel Peace Prize and he's given away, including the kitchen sink for a vague statement with no actual "deal". But hey, at least he got some cool photos and got to show someone his limo...

And if NK launches any missiles for what ever reason, what do u think would happen?

North Korea has been launching missiles for a while now, over Japan, towards China and Russia before bringing them down before they went over the border to China and Russia.

What do you think happened?

 

[Quantum Quack]

It was not just prior.

The upgrades began after the summit.

And it is not just "a couple of new relatively small buildings":

Infrastructure improvements at the Yongbyon nuclear plant, which is used to fuel the country’s weapons program, are “continuing at a rapid pace,” according to analysis by monitoring group 38 North. The upgrades include the modification of a cooling system for the plutonium production reactor, at least two new non-industrial buildings, and a new engineering office building.​

Who "told" Trump to do this?

Because it is well known and established that Trump has acted on his own, without any advice or instructions from Congress, who were taken by surprise at the concessions Trump made to Kim Jong Un and getting nothing but a photo op in return.


Ya, China would be all hunky dory with the US attacking a neighbour on its border...


There is no actual deal. Just vague and empty comments.

So what has North Korea actually reneged on? Can you please be specific?


No!

Really?!? [Insert my shocked face here..]

He didn't get played. Trump was going for a Nobel Peace Prize and he's given away, including the kitchen sink for a vague statement with no actual "deal". But hey, at least he got some cool photos and got to show someone his limo...


North Korea has been launching missiles for a while now, over Japan, towards China and Russia before bringing them down before they went over the border to China and Russia.

What do you think happened?

Maybe have a listen to this CNN video which includes commentary by 38 North. Listen to the inconclusiveness. Separate opinion from fact... and perhaps rephrase your angst at my post...
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/06/27/...ture-improvements-nuclear-facility/index.html

 

[Bells]

Maybe have a listen to this CNN video which includes commentary by 38 North. Listen to the inconclusiveness. Separate opinion from fact... and perhaps rephrase your angst at my post...
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/06/27/...ture-improvements-nuclear-facility/index.html

And?

Did you read what I linked? They are ramping up their production site and continue to do so even after his meeting with Trump. And did you read your link? You put it across as a few buildings. It's not just a few buildings.

North Korea has increased its production of enriched uranium for nuclear weapons at secret sites in recent months, contrary to Donald Trump’s claims that it was “no longer a nuclear threat”, according to a new report.

NBC News quoted more than a dozen US officials familiar with the intelligence assessments. Coming soon after satellite images showed rapid improvements being made to a North Korean nuclear research facility at Yongbyon, the developments will make it harder for Trump to claim that his summit with Kim Jong-un in Singapore this month was a success.

Neither of the concessions the US president claimed Kim had delivered – the destruction of a missile engine testing site, and the repatriation of the remains of US soldiers killed in the Korean war – has materialised so far.

Meanwhile Trump has already made a significant US concession: suspending joint exercises with South Korea that had been due to start in August.

The US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, is reported to be planning a trip to Pyongyang in early July to continue negotiations with the North Korean government, in the hope of persuading the regime to make specific commitments on nuclear disarmament.

Over the past seven months the North Koreans have conducted no new missile or nuclear tests. But NBC quoted a US official briefed on the latest intelligence as saying that uranium enrichment had been stepped up.

“There’s no evidence that they are decreasing stockpiles, or that they have stopped their production,” the official said. “There is absolutely unequivocal evidence that they are trying to deceive the US.”

It has long been suspected that the North Koreans have established a uranium enrichment plant in at least one secret site apart from Yongbyon complex.

“There are lots of things that we know that North Korea has tried to hide from us for a long time,” a US intelligence official told NBC.​

https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/north-korea-nuclear-weapon-fuel_us_5b36b720e4b08c3a8f6a8d93

The ABC goes into even more detail. They continue to ramp up their enrichment program at other sites that they have not declared and they are upgrading the sites they have declared, before, during and after their meeting with Trump. Work on those sites have not stopped. There is no inconclusiveness there.

And my apologies, I have edited and corrected my comment as to when the upgrades started.

 

[Quantum Quack]

And?

Did you read what I linked? They are ramping up their production site and continue to do so even after his meeting with Trump. And did you read your link? You put it across as a few buildings. It's not just a few buildings.

North Korea has increased its production of enriched uranium for nuclear weapons at secret sites in recent months, contrary to Donald Trump’s claims that it was “no longer a nuclear threat”, according to a new report.

NBC News quoted more than a dozen US officials familiar with the intelligence assessments. Coming soon after satellite images showed rapid improvements being made to a North Korean nuclear research facility at Yongbyon, the developments will make it harder for Trump to claim that his summit with Kim Jong-un in Singapore this month was a success.

Neither of the concessions the US president claimed Kim had delivered – the destruction of a missile engine testing site, and the repatriation of the remains of US soldiers killed in the Korean war – has materialised so far.

Meanwhile Trump has already made a significant US concession: suspending joint exercises with South Korea that had been due to start in August.

The US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, is reported to be planning a trip to Pyongyang in early July to continue negotiations with the North Korean government, in the hope of persuading the regime to make specific commitments on nuclear disarmament.

Over the past seven months the North Koreans have conducted no new missile or nuclear tests. But NBC quoted a US official briefed on the latest intelligence as saying that uranium enrichment had been stepped up.

“There’s no evidence that they are decreasing stockpiles, or that they have stopped their production,” the official said. “There is absolutely unequivocal evidence that they are trying to deceive the US.”

It has long been suspected that the North Koreans have established a uranium enrichment plant in at least one secret site apart from Yongbyon complex.

“There are lots of things that we know that North Korea has tried to hide from us for a long time,” a US intelligence official told NBC.​

https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/north-korea-nuclear-weapon-fuel_us_5b36b720e4b08c3a8f6a8d93

The ABC goes into even more detail. They continue to ramp up their enrichment program at other sites that they have not declared and they are upgrading the sites they have declared, before, during and after their meeting with Trump. Work on those sites have not stopped. There is no inconclusiveness there.

And my apologies, I have edited and corrected my comment as to when the upgrades started.

Yes it appears that things may be heating up....
I am confident that the Pentagon and the CIA know what is going on....( and so should Trump) It is their reaction or lack thereof to their own intel that is the most informative IMO.
If the reports are true and founded we should see a Trumpasm any time now...

 

[Bells]

Yes it appears that things may be heating up....
I am confident that the Pentagon and the CIA know what is going on....( and so should Trump) It is their reaction or lack thereof to their own intel that is the most informative IMO.
If the reports are true and founded we should see a Trumpasm any time now...

Why do you think Trump will have a spasm of some sort?

His administration is already walking back is statements from the so called "summit"..

Just two weeks after the summit, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told a Senate panel that North Korea still remained a nuclear threat. He said he was certain Trump had intended to say the threat was reduced, not that it no longer existed.​

So, let's look at Trump's exact words, shall we?

North Korea no longer poses a nuclear threat, nor is it the "biggest and most dangerous problem" for the United States, President Donald Trump said on Wednesday on his return from a summit in Singapore with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

The summit was the first between a sitting U.S. president and a North Korean leader and followed a flurry of North Korean nuclear and missile tests and angry exchanges between Trump and Kim last year that fuelled fears of war.

"Everybody can now feel much safer than the day I took office," Trump said on Twitter.

"There is no longer a nuclear threat from North Korea. Meeting with Kim Jong Un was an interesting and very positive experience. North Korea has great potential for the future!"​

Emphasis mine.

Reading that, does it look like Trump was actually trying to say that the threat was "reduced"?

Here is his tweet:

Just landed - a long trip, but everybody can now feel much safer than the day I took office. There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea. Meeting with Kim Jong Un was an interesting and very positive experience. North Korea has great potential for the future!​

Their reaction is to now defend Trump and walk back his statements. Literally. If they respond openly, it will essentially make Trump look like an even bigger liar and fool.

And the cracks are already showing (aside from the glaring chasm where North Korea is still enriching materials to build more bombs at other facilities 'in secret')..

Pompeo was due to start follow-on negotiations with the North Korean leadership within a week of the 12 June Singapore summit. But Pyongyang appears to have dragged its heels. The secretary of state is now hoping to visit Pyongyang during a trip to the far east in the second week of July, as first reported by the Financial Times.

“There was a delay but I think he has now got the agreement to go,” said Victor Cha, a former director of Asian affairs at the National Security Council.

“They have to put meat on the bones of the Singapore statement. Pompeo is under pressure to get something before August, when the exercises were going to start,” said Cha, now at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.​

The Pentagon and the CIA know what is going on. They cannot react without making Trump look like an even bigger idiot.

Trump's actions in declaring North Korea no longer being a nuclear threat, his declarations that they will begin to "denuclearise" essentially immediately, ensures that the CIA, Pentagon cannot actually without making Trump look incompetent. Trump has already given Kim everything he asked for and got zip in return. Why do you think they would respond at this point in time.

So I doubt you will see a "Trumpasm", because he has openly declared admiration for the guy, declared they are no longer a threat and declared the training exercises between the US and South Korea were no more and openly advised he wants to lift sanctions against the despot... Not to mention praised him to high heaven.

 

[Tiassa]

If the reports are true and founded we should see a Trumpasm any time now...

Wasn't last week enough?

By the time he got to the Goodlatte tweet, yesterday? I mean, what a cap to a week of shoveling extraordinary bullshit. When indefinite internment is the good news, as far as the Trump administration is concerned—(e.g., we're not talking about drugging up the children as informal behavior modification experimentation, are we?)—we are in so goddamn deep I cannot begin to fathom, except I can, sort of, because there is a sentence I am actually ducking, these days, owing to the prospect that we were two months behind being however many months behind when we heard about the drug accusations that, and in light of (A) the disorganization suggesting some records are lost, and (B) indefinite detention, there is (C) a potential I expect already manifest in reality, and I think the reason nobody really wants to say it is the question of what happens next.

Because once we come right out and say it, we can no longer hide in neurotic terror of ourselves.

It's really happening, and last week's performance was an exercise in lying as a watch-the-birdie spectacle. The Trump administration does two things successfully, which are harming people, and making a spectacle.

Each new spectacle is a distraction. And even by Trump standards, last week was kind of out there.

 

[Quantum Quack]

Ok....The following is the way I analyse this issue.

Here is the exact wording of most of the agreement reached at the Singapore Summit between Trump and Kim.

=============

Convinced that the establishment of new U.S.-DPRK relations will contribute to the peace and prosperity of the Korean Peninsula and of the world, and recognizing that mutual confidence building can promote the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un state the following:
(there were four key points.)

1. The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new U.S.-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.
2. The United States and the DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.
3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
4. The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.

(Further,)
Having acknowledged that the U.S.-DPRK summit — the first in history — was an epochal event of great significance in overcoming decades of tensions and hostilities between the two countries and for the opening up of a new future, President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un commit to implement the stipulations in this joint statement fully and expeditiously. The United States and the DPRK commit to hold follow-on negotiations, led by the U.S. Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, and a relevant high-level DPRK official, at the earliest possible date, to implement the outcomes of the U.S.-DPRK summit.

President Donald J Trump of the United States of America and Chairman Kim Jong Un of the State Affairs Commission of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea have committed to cooperate for the development of new U.S.-DPRK relations and for the promotion of peace, prosperity, and security of the Korean Peninsula and of the world.​

=============
Has NK Breached this agreement. YES or NO? ( especially point #3)

If yes, then any concessions Trump may have made are no longer valid, which would involve the resumption of joint military exercises between SK and the USA.
Has this happened YES or NO?

Has there been any indication of any failure towards achieving point #4. YES or NO?

Then look at the following commitments,

• commit to implement the stipulations in this joint statement fully and expeditiously
• commit to hold follow-on negotiations,
• committed to cooperate for the development of new U.S.-DPRK relations and for the promotion of peace, prosperity, and security.

If NK has indeed, according to the Pentagon and the CIA, breached this agreement Trump would already be informed and it would be in Trump's interests to declare the summit a failure ASAP using Kim's lack of good faith and treachery as the reason.

• Military exercises scheduled for August would be reinstated, rescheduled etc.
• USA Military would be in a heightened state of readiness.

Neither appear to be the case.
so... on that premise I am seriously skeptical towards the reports that the summit agreement has actually been breached.

Further,
When Trump says that NK is no longer a nuclear threat he was talking from the perspective that he just had a meeting where he was able to conclude that KIM was genuine in their discussions. In typical impulsive Trump fashion he was talking about his personal impressions and not military fact. The media has taken his comments out of context and sensationalized the implications.

There is no doubt that Trump has no idea how easy it is for media to "contextualize" his words any way they see fit. He refuses to temper his language in a way that prevents such media sensationalism.
If he had said: "It was my strong personal impression that there is no longer a nuclear threat from NK" would that have been more clearer?

Regardless,
The agreement reached between Kim and Trump is the issue and that has to be considered as being written exactly, precisely with full intent and consent by both parties.
( Kim representing Kim and Trump attempting to represent the USA)

Has Kim actually breached the summit agreement?
IMO, it remains inconclusive until the Pentagon and CIA make an announcement via the Trump administration and material reaction is instigated.
This is just my opinion ok....Do I need to explain my use of bold font?

 

[Quantum Quack]

Wasn't last week enough?

By the time he got to the Goodlatte tweet, yesterday? I mean, what a cap to a week of shoveling extraordinary bullshit. When indefinite internment is the good news, as far as the Trump administration is concerned—(e.g., we're not talking about drugging up the children as informal behavior modification experimentation, are we?)—we are in so goddamn deep I cannot begin to fathom, except I can, sort of, because there is a sentence I am actually ducking, these days, owing to the prospect that we were two months behind being however many months behind when we heard about the drug accusations that, and in light of (A) the disorganization suggesting some records are lost, and (B) indefinite detention, there is (C) a potential I expect already manifest in reality, and I think the reason nobody really wants to say it is the question of what happens next.

Because once we come right out and say it, we can no longer hide in neurotic terror of ourselves.

It's really happening, and last week's performance was an exercise in lying as a watch-the-birdie spectacle. The Trump administration does two things successfully, which are harming people, and making a spectacle.

Each new spectacle is a distraction. And even by Trump standards, last week was kind of out there.

any other time (era?) I would say " Unbelievable!" but alas 'tis true, 'tis true.....

 

[Quantum Quack]

Reading that, does it look like Trump was actually trying to say that the threat was "reduced"?

Trump in his usual style was stating an impression he got from his discussions with Kim. I never assumed he was talking military fact. Watching the videos and body language and knowing how the media loves to assume that every word Trump says is presidential you could see a media bun fight coming a mile away...
Abstraction (fiction):
Trump says:
"The man and I got on fabulously"
"I trust him and have faith in his commitment to de-nuclearization"
"I just love being a historical figure and thanks to KIM I am even more so"
"I believe that there is no nuclear threat from NK"
"My impressions are sooooo important"
"woo-hooo!!!!"
"What a buzzz!"
"Can we do it again.... soon... sometime ... .please....????"

Like a big kid on a roller-coaster ride.....

 

[Bells]

The agreement reached between Kim and Trump is the issue and that has to be considered as being written exactly, precisely with full intent and consent by both parties.

There was no actual agreement. Just a vague statement. Trump made promises and got nothing in return. North Korea are still continuing with their enrichment program and have ramped up their efforts.

North Korea are stalling. Visits by US officials to the country are being put off. The next war games/exercises with South Korea was due to begin in August. Trump has told the world he is putting that off. So Kim got promises and Trump got what? A vague statement on one page, where he promised and got zilch in return.

So the only "agreement" was from Trump.

Kim Jong Un made a vague statement of denuclearisation with no timeline, no start date. Nothing. No actual intent. And they are still pushing forward with their nuclear program at other sites as evidenced by satellite images.

 

[Quantum Quack]

Just think... Apparently Trump is going to do it all again with Putin later this month...should prove very entertaining...no?

 

[iceaura]

There's the view from the top - treaties, Putin, NK, etc.
There's the view from the bottom.
One bottom-up view of the Republican regime:
https://splinternews.com/time-to-make-life-hard-for-the-rich-1821384779

Realistically, what people can do now is to start thinking about ways to make it uncomfortable to be too rich. Socially uncomfortable and otherwise. When the accumulation of great wealth ceases to be a praiseworthy endeavor and instead becomes viewed as a sick, greedy pastime whose only reward is the hatred of your fellow citizens and the inability to live comfortably without fear of your excessive property being destroyed, rich people will rethink their goals. - -

 

[Kittamaru]

So... the Senate Intel Committee released some info...


https://www.burr.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/SSCI ICA ASSESSMENT_FINALJULY3.pdf

The ICA states that: We assess Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an influence campaign in 2016 aimed at the U.S. presidential election. Russia's goals were to undermine public faith in the U.S. democratic process, denigrate Secretary Clinton, and harm her electability and potential presidency. We further assess Putin and the Russian Government developed a clear preference for President-elect Trump

and

The ICA also statesthat: We also assess Putin and the Russian Government aspired to help President-elect Trump's election chances when possible by discrediting Secretary Clinton and publicly contrasting her unfavorably to him

Hm... that puts the only real question, at this point, as "Why"... which I think we've already started to see the benefits Russia is reaping...