Cynicism: Banking on Hispanic Prejudice?
Madanthonywayne said:
If Rubio simply brings in enough votes to carry Florida, he's worth it. If he also brings in some extra support from Hispanics, great. Not to mention that he's popular with the Tea Party which helps Mitt shore up his right flank.
To the one, isn't that a bit cynical? I mean, not that you're necessarily wrong about the plan; in fact, I think you've a better chance of circumstances proving you correct than otherwise.
However ....
Accepting that this is the plan, isn't the
plan itself just a bit cynical?
Trying to read the veep leaves swilling 'round the dregs of my political tonic is a curious exercise in futility. There is a certain realm of speculation that I have long disdained, but with which I share a curiously inverted relationship.
I probably could have said months ago that Rubio would be Romney's running-mate, except it really seemed a simplistic analysis with plenty of pitfalls to bite me in the ass as things went along. To the other, I could have tried ruling out the possibility for various reasons. In either case, it is my superstition that had I taken a position, I would end up exactly wrong.
Watching the GOP maneuver as Romney is officially granted de facto nominee status seems to be reasserting the case for Rubio, but even that is convoluted and, yes,
cynical.
For instance,
Steve Benen considers the idea of a "a 'Republican DREAM Act' to help his party with Latino voters", and then, of course, points to some obvious problems. Romney's inability to take a solid, durable position on immigration, and the fact that the "DREAM Act without a dream" just doesn't seem to help, lead the list.
But then there is
this part of Benen's analysis:
And third, House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), before Rubio has even finished putting his bill together, effectively told the senator yesterday not to bother ....
.... Boehner's comments come less than a week after Kris Kobach, Romney's right-wing immigration adviser, also said Rubio's conservative version of the plan is simply too liberal for the party's hard-line, anti-immigrant base.
Romney may want a "Republican DREAM Act," but Boehner's and Kobach's reaction to Rubio's efforts reinforce a larger truth: the GOP simply hasn't left itself any room to maneuver. George W. Bush's comprehensive immigration reform package from his second term is now seen in Republican circles as liberal nonsense; the DREAM Act that had enjoyed strong support from Republicans like Orrin Hatch, Dick Lugar, and John McCain has now been abandoned by the party altogether; and now a watered-down DREAM Act is dead on arrival before it's even been written.
If Rubio is the nominee,
then the end-for-now of the "Republican DREAM Act" appears to be part of the Etch-a-Sketch philosophy in which the Romney campaign would hope that people ("Watch the birdie!") completely forget recent history, such as the whole of the GOP primary campaign°.
Whatever else, Benen's analysis makes an important point: the GOP doesn't have much room for maneuvering on immigration policies. The DREAM Act, which arose from immigration considerations discussed during the Bush administration, and had Republican sponsors when crafted in the wake of two other legislative failures (Comprehensive Immigration Reform Acts of 2006 and 2007). This is now too liberal a position for the GOP.
With Speaker Boehner recognizing the futility of a conservative alternative to the DREAM Act, one wonders where Republicans can go on the issue, for certainly the one thing we can reasonably expect they
won't do is admit that the Democrats are right, the DREAM Act that has been circulating in various forms for several years should be passed, and everyone should simply get on with life.
And in that sense, we come back to the cynicism of a Rubio veep nomination. Is the gamble that Hispanics in Florida and around the nation will look at Rubio and say, "
He might work against me, but he looks like me so I'll vote for him"? There are plenty of arguments about black people voting for President Obama that suggest some in the American conservative movement believe such things, and plenty believe that women will vote for a woman simply because of their shared womanhood, but history itself speaks against these arguments.
Alan Keyes, Sarah Palin, Christine O'Donnell, Sharron Angle; these few names are prominent and recognizable, but even recent decades remind that history is littered with people who should have won if ethnic, gender, or other such labels guided the outcomes.
Rubio is certainly
conservative enough to spark Florida's conservative voters, but the question remains whether or not his heritage will bring Hispanics to the polls to vote against their own interests simply because he happens to be "one of them".
The odds are unclear, but the logic strikes me as very cynical, indeed.
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Notes:
° the whole of the GOP primary campaign — The Great Scrub is underway, as candidates and super-PACs begin pulling their primary-round attack adverts from the internet.
Works Cited:
Benen, Steve. "GOP left with no room to move on immigration". The Maddow Blog. April 27, 2012. MaddowBlog.MSNBC.MSN.com. April 27, 2012. http://maddowblog.msnbc.msn.com/_ne...-gop-left-with-no-room-to-move-on-immigration
Blumenthal, Paul. "2012 Republican Primary Candidates, Super PACs Scrub Attack Ads From YouTube". The Huffington Post. April 26, 2012. HuffingtonPost.com. April 27, 2012. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/...-primary-candidates-attack-ads_n_1456251.html