The Romney File

Fox News anchors and guests covering the Democratic National Convention appear to be more than a bit down these days. I guess that must be the effect of so much honesty and reality as presented by the Democrats. All their distortions and misrepresentations are being destroyed one by one in front of their noses. You can see the pain and desperation in their faces.
 
Another possibility

Joepistole said:

All their distortions and misrepresentations are being destroyed one by one in front of their noses.

I'm not sure that's it, though.

Let us start with a premise drawn from what used to count as conventional wisdom: This should be the Republicans' year.

So what happened? Well, sure, to you and me it's kind of obvious, but for the faithful conservatives?

In a year that should be theirs, the Republicans came to their convention acting like they had something to prove. This is backwards compared to the former conventional wisdom.

In a year that should have Democrats writhing, they're not. Clearly, the Democrats are more confident and comfortable than the former conventional wisdom suggests.

True, Obama does have a record to run on, despite the paradoxical Republican couplet arguing, to the one, that Obama has accomplished nothing and, to the other, that everything he has accomplished is evil or otherwise wrong. However, the economy is still rough, so that old conventional wisdom says ....

But look at the conventioneers. Republicans celebrated vicious dishonesty. Democrats are just having a good time.

It's something akin to a group dynamic related to body language.

More than any argument, this is the indicator that gives FOX News indigestion.

And it is almost ironic: Republicans have worked so hard to turn conventional wisdom upside down, and now they appear to be suffering their own wrath.

It might even be a mass neurosis. The primary season played as strangely as it could. Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum ... and then, at last, Mitt Romney.

I don't know, did I leave anyone out?

At the outset, Romney was supposed to be the viable one. Right now, the GOP might well be faring better with Gingrich at the top of the ticket; his big advantage over Romney is that fighting dirty is second nature—Mitt clearly isn't honest, but he has never really mastered the art because his privilege hasn't demanded it.

Who knows? Maybe Republicans would be owning this election if they had nominated Pawlenty. Sure, the guy is "boring", but compared to Mitt Romney, he's also respectable; that's a huge asset, as Republicans are discovering.

But it really does seem like Republicans don't really want it this year. Sure, there are plenty of rank and file conservatives who want it that badly, but ...

• ... this is not really a presidency anyone should look forward to, given the state we're in.

• ... really? Mitt Romney is the best the GOP could come up with? And that only after trying the half-wit, the moon-bat, the pizza guy, the blowhard, and the anal-retentive sweater vest? There was no better candidate to run against a charismatically wonky nerd with a bad economy on his plate? This is the best they can do? RomBot 3000 and "Two-Fifty" womb envy?

• ... the Republicans are much better at playing the long game. Sure, Clinton had the White House for eight years, and sure, Bush Jr. was an embarrassment to the Party, nation, and human species. But, meanwhile, we're fighting over abortion again, and birth control. Democrats are warmongering. Obama is prosecuting whistleblowers at an alarming rate. Deportations are up. And Democrats just fought tooth and nail for a Heritage Foundation healthcare brainstorm. Yeah, maybe Republicans are losing on the gay marriage front, but conservatives are still winning, despite Democrats in the White House and Senate.​

Republicans know how to lose battles and win wars. And they have every reason to not want the next four years of the White House on their record. It doesn't need to be a conspiracy theory; mass neurosis suffices. They need not explicitly recognize they're tanking.

It's one possible explanation. In that case, whether it's a matter of the stars falling from the eyes of hopeful rank and file conservatives, or simply a coming to terms with what they've known all along, relatively few would be the hardliners who are actually choking on themselves over the growing prospect of Obama's re-election. Those poor souls are likely gathered in specialty blocs; the most delusional of the evangelicals and would-be libertarians. A lot of them will be Tea Partiers.

In some respects, it's a more hopeful assessment than accepting that Republicans are actually so deluded as the Party and its agents are depicting it. Mitt Romney seems to be just going through the motions; I've suggested previously that, "He's trying to run an election campaign without sweating. He's trying to achieve the White House without feeling sore."

And that would explain it, to be certain. At some level, he does not believe he can win, so why open up his tax records? Why bother with policy details? Why make any effort toward recognizing facts?

And perhaps the specific reality isn't so clearly resolved, but the FOX News fanatics are not going to be swayed from their delusion just because a bunch of Democrats get up onstage and say so. It is, as such, very likely that some amorphous sense of doom is finally settling over Republican hopes for the White House. Revelation, perhaps, but at least as likely to be a moment of clarity amid otherwise intoxicating neurosis.

The question for the Democratic convention was one of restraint. It was not a question of fending off Republican attacks, but, rather, showing enough dignified restraint to not rub the GOP's noses in it. And, in truth, I'm not sure they're pulling it off. Republicans' heads are so far up their own asses that they can't help rubbing in something.

And there comes a point when, though they might not like to admit it, even FOX News can see the obvious.

Conservatives' best hope now is just to weary voters into numbness and hope people vote against Obama. Mitt Romney is still, despite all else, the leading brand for voters who decide so superficially.
 
balerion said:
Obama can't pull this crap, because his cards are already on the table. You can't hide your policies when you're the sitting president.
W did. Reagan did.
balerion said:
But of course Democrats and Republicans both lie and distort the truth to suit their agendas.
That's the Fox line for this round of elections.
balerion said:
He could run as the candidate of change precisely because he wasn't an entrenched bureaucrat. Yes, he had a ton of great ideas as well, but we both know ideas don't win elections. Where's their Obama?
Lack of ideas loses elections for those with little else on the resume - the young, the new. Meanwhile, lack of integrity weakens the up and coming even if they have ideas - it's hard to champion heroically while weasel-wording and self-betraying.
balerion said:
That's what I'm asking. I find it hard to believe that Mitt Romney is really their best guy. They don't even like him
He's their best guy because they don't like him. Have you considered what kind of candidate they like? Palin. W. Reagan. Bachmann. It gets ugly fast, when you delve into the actual likes of the Republican voting base.
 
Tea Leaves?

I am not certain whether it means what it seems to mean, but Rove is pulling out of Michigan, and right-wing investment in Pennsylvania is grinding to a halt. We'll see what the future brings, but this could be one of those important, indicative shifts.
 
It might even be a mass neurosis. The primary season played as strangely as it could. Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum ... and then, at last, Mitt Romney.

I don't know, did I leave anyone out?

Yeah: Donald Trump.
 
No, Republicans Don't Think You're an Idiot ....

No, Republicans Don't Think You're an Idiot ....

After all, as an unnamed RNC official explained, "Let's be clear, it is an ad."

Fair enough.

Amanda Sakuma explains:

The Republican National Committee is upgrading the image of President Obama as an invisible man in an empty chair, to a cardboard cut-out—in an empty chair.

Rather than run from actor Clint Eastwood's heavily ridiculed rendition of a prime time political speech, the RNC appears to be doubling down. And as women's issues—including abortion and health care rights—continue to play a central role for Democrats in their convention message, Republicans in a new web video are highlighting another choice for women: to "break up" with Obama.

The video portrays a woman sitting across a restaurant table from a cardboard cut-out of Obama.

"You think I didn't see you with Sarah Jessica Parker and George Clooney?" the woman asks.

"It's not me, it's you."

But perhaps it is the woman. The actor depicting a disillusioned Obama supporter from 2008 is actually the RNC's Director of Hispanic Outreach Bettina Inclan.

What, they couldn't outsource? You know, at least get someone who isn't, as David Weigel put it, "one of the better-known spokesflacks in the RNC apparatus"?

And, hey, "Let's be friends"? Not only is that kind of a cheap line to begin with, I don't think anyone needs a friend who treats them like Republicans have treated President Obama.

And that's one of the handicaps of being in politics. When one of your friends is making an ass of himself, you get to say, "You fucking douchebag, shut up!" Not so in American politics. Or maybe I'm wrong. You know, like after the debate, when the candidates shake hands for the camera and quietly speak to one another. What do they say?

"Good job, man."

Or, "You're really going to go with that line?"

Maybe, "I still can't believe you put Sarah on the ticket."

What about, "You're such a dumbfuck, Mitt. Get your head out, man. This is important."

Yeah. Let's be friends? Sorry, Ms. Inclan. I may have a history of friendships that includes hookers, drug dealers, wannabe-SEALs, accomplices to murder (dated one, actually), and even—in high school—a rapist. You, however, madam, are of such low character that I doubt I could be a proper friend to you without destroying everything important in my life first. And I'm just not ready for that kind of commitment.

Don't take it too hard, madam. It's also why I'm not voting for Mitt Romney.

Don't get me wrong, either. I'm all for acknowledging human frailty. But there are limits, you know.
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Notes:

Sakuma, Amanda. "RNC ad has own staffer 'breaking up' with Obama cardboard cut-out". Lean Forward. September 6, 2012. LeanForward.MSNBC.com. September 6, 2012. http://leanforward.msnbc.com/_news/...ffer-breaking-up-with-obama-cardboard-cut-out

Weigel, David. "The RNC's Clever Video Troll-Bait". Slate. September 6, 2012. Slate.com. September 6, 2012. http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2...rs_in_video_about_breaking_up_with_obama.html
 
America. Mmmhhh........................
Why does the Middle Class 50% sometimes vote to give the Richest 1% money taken from the poorest 49%
 
Why does the Middle Class 50% sometimes vote to give the Richest 1% money taken from the poorest 49%

Because the Reps are rather smart. They make it a one topic issue (gay marriage, abortion,guns) and those people care more about that 1-2 issues, (even though they are not affected by them) than their own interest, like health care....

Or basicly, because they are sheep...
 
It appears Romney didn't get the normal bump from the Republican Convention. Normally nominees get a post convention bump in the polling. Early polling indicates President Obama received a bump in the polling, but Romney's numbers are unchanged.
 
Locked In

Joepistole said:

It appears Romney didn't get the normal bump from the Republican Convention. Normally nominees get a post convention bump in the polling. Early polling indicates President Obama received a bump in the polling, but Romney's numbers are unchanged.

You might be overstating things a bit. My understanding is that vote polling didn't move much at all, but Obama's favorability ratings came up.

It's not much, but that's the thing about the polling this year. The partisan divide in the electorate is so fierce this year that the polling has seemed locked in for a while now. Favorability? Sure, we should take what we can get; likability can be a powerful influence with swing voters.

But things are so fiercely divided that the lack of a bounce isn't as significant as it otherwise would be. Even Steve Benen, whose affections in this election are no mystery whatsoever, noted in the wake of the GOP convention, "if the race's recent pattern holds, and voters are fairly locked in to their preferred candidate, President Obama may not see much of a post-convention bounce, either, suggesting the candidates will remain neck and neck for a while, probably until the debates".

Yeah. Favorability ratings. Compared to Romney, whose acceptance speech was the worst since Dole in '96, at least, we should simply take what we can get. No, Obama did not get a big bounce out of the convention. No, that's not a reason to worry.
____________________

Notes:

Benen, Steve. "Two weeks, two conventions, little change". The Maddow Blog. September 7, 2012. MaddowBlog.MSNBC.com. September 8, 2012. http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2012/09/07/13730819-two-weeks-two-conventions-little-change

—————. "Don't call it a comeback". The Maddow Blog. September 3, 2012. MaddowBlog.MSNBC.com. September 8, 2012. http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2012/09/03/13639689-dont-call-it-a-comeback
 
Correction: Convention Bounces

Correction: Convention Bounces

"My understanding is that vote polling didn't move much at all, but Obama's favorability ratings came up." Tiassa

While the above statement did have its reasons, passing time demands a correction. Via Brad Knickerbocker of Christian Science Monitor:

Weekend polls where Obama is gaining include Gallup, Reuters/Ipsos, and Rasmussen. The differences between the two candidates are small here – single digits – but the trend at this point is in Obama's direction.

"The question now is not whether Mr. Obama will get a bounce in the polls, but how substantial it will be," writes statistician and poll watcher Nate Silver on his New York Times FiveThirtyEight blog. "Some of the data, in fact, suggests that the conventions may have changed the composition of the race, making Mr. Obama a reasonably clear favorite as we enter the stretch run of the campaign."

Ipsos also shows Obama increasing his lead over Romney in certain favorable characteristics. He's "more eloquent" by 50-25 percent, and he's ahead of Romney in being "smart enough for the job" (46-37 percent). Obama leads Romney in a dozen such favorable characteristics, Ipsos reports, including "represents America" and "has the right values." The one such category where Romney is ahead is in being "a man of faith."

"The bump is actually happening," Ipsos pollster Julia Clark told Reuters. "I know there was some debate whether it would happen … but it's here."

I think part of the issue is that the disparity is clear. The GOP convention was one of distinctive blasé; in the long run it wasn't the worst convention ever, but neither did it offer anything outstanding. Thematically, it seemed more about political vice than anything else; perhaps it charged the base, but the question of the swing bloc remains.

No-bounce theory suggested the swing bloc would remain stationary until the debates, when the candidate contrast will be immediately apparent. However, this trickle bounce is interesting because it suggests the disparity between conventions was so apparent as to penetrate a swing bloc that seems very much unwilling to move, much less jump.

We'll see how it all plays out, but one should not be surprised at the proposition that the GOP deficiency might cause some movement in the swing bloc; rather, one should be surprised at the GOP deficiency itself.
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Notes:

Knickerbocker, Brad. "Obama slips ahead of Romney in key polls. More than a bounce?" The Christian Science Monitor. September 9, 2012. CSMonitor.com. September 9, 2012. http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Electi...ad-of-Romney-in-key-polls.-More-than-a-bounce
 
Romney has been spending a lot of time in debate prep. That will be his next big opportunity, and he knows it. I listened to his interview with David Gregory (Meet the Press) this morning. At the end of the interview, I had to scratch my head and ask now what is it the man believes in? He has been on every side of every issue, and his positions remain straddled with a foot in every camp at the same time. The man has no credibility.

Romney thinks that somehow he can lead the extreme elements in his party – something he has yet to demonstrate – should he become POTUS. And this is the man that is claiming through some yet unspecified miracle he is going to solve all the nation’s ills. But he cannot tell you how with any degree of specificity. Hell he has only released one year of tax returns and promises another year will be released just before the election. Romney has a penchant for secrecy, and that bothers me. Romney has a very long history of extraordinary secrecy. And I find that troubling in the POTUS – the man with his finger on the nuclear button.
 
I was listening to Republican talk radio earlier today. Boy were they down, apparently the Republican talk radio crowd is pretty down on their nominee’s performance in the polls. They were blaming Romney & the “liberal media” for everything up to and including the rotten eggs which they were throwing at Romney in abundance. The so called “liberal media” was being blamed for reporting the official unemployment rate which only reports unemployed people versus the fictional Republican “real unemployment rate” which consists mostly of employed people and calling them unemployed.

Apparently Romney is not lying enough to satisfy his fellow Republicans. Considering how much lying Romney has been doing recently, I don't know how the guy could be more prolific in his lies.
 
Update: Convention Bounces

Update: Convention Bounces


To the one, daily tracking is daily tracking. To the other, it suggests something of an actual convention bounce ... weren't they called "bumps" at one point? ... for President Obama. It's not much, to be certain, and it's hard to tell how much of the damage Romney suffers in those polls comes from the Democratic convention, and how much comes from the Romney camp methodically burying itself.

Steve Benen notes:

With a growing sense of dread in Republican circles, the Romney campaign's pollster published a memo this morning, urging everyone to just calm down. Neil Newhouse—yes, that Neil Newhouse—acknowledged Obama's lead, but dismissed the president's advantage as "a sugar high" that won't last.

He may well be right. We don't yet know whether Obama's current lead is the result of a post-convention bounce that will soon fade, or whether it's a new normal that will last until the debates in a few weeks. Time will tell.

That said, it's worth noting that the Team Romney memo was extremely thin—it wasn't based on data or any kind of evidence; it was instead based on hopes of what Republicans think could happen in the near future. For GOP voters worried about Romney's chances, the polling memo effectively boiled down to, "This'll work out; trust us."

For Republicans inching closer to panic, this may fall short of reassuring. Romney was supposed to get a bump when Paul Ryan was introduced, but that didn't amount to much. He was supposed to get a bump from his convention, but that proved underwhelming, too.

Mark Halperin, who's generally a fairly reliable barometer of what the inside-the-beltway establishment is thinking, said this morning that Romney "faces the immediate threat of both quiet and loud we-told-you-so's from Republicans who last year had the very worries they fear are being manifested now. Romney is an awkward, unlikable candidate.... Until Romney breaks this cycle, he is in danger of living out the Haley Barbour dictum: in politics, bad gets worse."

That's not the best outlook for the GOP nominee, but the conventional wisdom of pundits and prognosticators is out the window this year, so overconfidence is, for Democratic supporters, politically suicidal. Benen suggests, "I tend to think all this handwringing in Republican circles is premature." And that's something important for Democratic supporters and sympathizers to remember, as well. It's only September, after all.
____________________

Notes:

Benen, Steve. "Obama is right where he wants to be". The Maddow Blog. September 10, 2012. MaddowBlog.MSNBC.com. September 10, 2012. http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2012/09/10/13783635-obama-is-right-where-he-wants-to-be
 
Romney is in real sorry state. He cannot get elected if he doesn’t tow the radical party agenda. And he cannot get elected if he does pander to the radicals (the majority in the Republican Party) in his party. So what do you do? If you are Romney you tell people as Romney did this weekend that he likes and would keep all the major benefits of Obamacare and it wouldn't cost anything and then a few hours later, deny it. If you are Ryan, you blame Obama for the sequester and deny that you were for it and voted for it and touted it as a major Republican win a year ago.
 

To the one, daily tracking is daily tracking.

FWIW, intrade.com and fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com are both showing similar trends. It's looking like this one is more or less in the bag, provided nothing blows up in Obama's face in the next couple of months. Also, I expect Obama to walk all over Romney in the debates. There is a huge mismatch in their public speaking skills and stage presences, and Romney still doesn't seem to have even worked out what any of his own policy positions actually are.
 
FWIW, intrade.com and fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com are both showing similar trends. It's looking like this one is more or less in the bag, provided nothing blows up in Obama's face in the next couple of months. Also, I expect Obama to walk all over Romney in the debates. There is a huge mismatch in their public speaking skills and stage presences, and Romney still doesn't seem to have even worked out what any of his own policy positions actually are.

The Republican next best strategy is to double down on their voter suppression efforts (voter roll purges, confusion, etc.).
 
In flames

Joepistole said:

The Republican next best strategy is to double down on their voter suppression efforts (voter roll purges, confusion, etc.).

Well, the purges are going up in flames. The Florida purge has produced one case of a Canadian man voting, and all of six other investigations. Compared to the 8.3 million or so who voted in 2008, that comes out to ... um ... 0.0000084%, or something like that. The purge in Colorado has gone so badly that after contacting over 3,900 suspected illegal voters (46% independents, 40% Democrats, 12.5% Republicans) and finding their list a debacle, Secretary of State Scott Gessler has cancelled the purge. They did find one non-citizen who was registered to vote, but apparently he didn't even know he was on the roll, and officials are blaming his registration on a DMV clerical error.

And given that despite the voter ID laws that are supposed to deliver Pennsylvania to the Romney column, Republican super-PACs are pulling out of the Keystone State.

Meanwhile, the Ohio Secretary of State likely ducked a contempt of court finding when he backed down from his deliberate and direct defiance of a federal court order; apparently, Secretary Husted is so stupid that someone had to explain to him what was wrong with the suggestion that instructing officials to disobey a federal court order doesn't conflict with the court's order.

If Obama wins the election, as seems increasingly likely with each passing day and opening of Romney's mouth, yes, I intend to spend a good deal of pent-up frustration ridiculing my Republican neighbors for all of the idiotic shit they put the country through for four years in order to win back the White House. It's been a disgraceful period for them, to say the least. The worst thing that could happen, of course, is if the public validates such blatant dishonesty and endorses such low character. Democratic supporters and sympathizers cannot sit back and enjoy the spectacle right now; there is still a strong chance that people will simply vote against the incumbent because that's what they think they're supposed to do.

Long ago, I suggested a scapegoat theory in which Americans elect leaders they want to hate. In that sense, one wonders if Americans would prefer to despise Mitt Romney, or if the Kenyan Nazi Anticolonial Communist Anticapitalist Secret Muslim Socialist Manchurian Jew Fascist president still gets the prize.
 
It's been a disgraceful period for them, to say the least.

It has been a disgrace for the nation.

The worst thing that could happen, of course, is if the public validates such blatant dishonesty and endorses such low character. Democratic supporters and sympathizers cannot sit back and enjoy the spectacle right now; there is still a strong chance that people will simply vote against the incumbent because that's what they think they're supposed to do.

Very true.
 
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