As am I. I don't adhere to strict determinism. I'm certainly more along the lines of probabilistic determinism - the output being a probability function rather than a specific output.That sounds good to me.
Ok, the question at this point seems to be whether there a 'chain of causation' that extends all the way back to the big-bang presumably, that absolutely determines every event that happens in the entire universe subsequently.
I'm skeptical about that.
It's not just possible to argue that, but entirely relevant to do so.For one thing, there's chaos and non-linear dynamics. Many dynamical processes appear to be very dependent on precise initial conditions. Even the slightest differences in these might lead to dramatic differences in how a physical system subsequently evolves. There's the so-called 'butterfly effects' and stuff.
It's possible to argue that chaotic dynamics is still entirely deterministic, with the subsequent evolution of the system still fully determined by the initial conditions. But even infinitesimal differences in initial conditions might make a huge difference in how the system evolves.
Chaos is a separate matter entirely, and actually a bit of red-herring. Whether the system is chaotic or not is irrelevant: strict determinism merely says that if you have exactly the same inputs then you get exactly the same output.
I.e. chaos is only a consideration once you are not dealing with exactly the same inputs.
Agreed. To all of this.On the microscale, things might not be totally deterministic at all. Individual quantum events might arguably be better described as probabilistically deterministic. In other words, there might be a lack of clear and precise specification to all aspects of physical reality, down there on the very finest scale.
And there are lots of microscale events taking place. Later ones will presumably be causally dependent (in a probabilistic way) on earlier (probabilistic) ones. So whatever built-in imprecision that exists might compound over time.
Combining that with the chaos idea, suggests that perhaps there's some under-determination, some fundamental unpredictability, inherent in how at least some physical systems evolve.
As a result of these kind of thoughts, my speculation (that's all it is) is that while causality does seem to be pretty much universal, it may not be precisely deterministic for more than relatively short periods of time. The universe might be increasingly stochastic on the longer time-scales. (Entropy may or may not be associated with that.) There might conceivably be a fundamental unpredictability built into its physical nature.
Returning to the free-will problem, our actions do seem to be fairly well determined on the shortest time-scale. Our decisions do seem to be determined by our present physical circumstances, by our desires, by our knowledge, by our values, by our memories, and by our past histories more broadly. But the further back in time we push that, the fuzzier it gets. Eventually it gets kind of ridiculous, as it seems to me to be when somebody insists that my personal choices today were already entirely determined by events that happened long before the Earth condensed from primordial dust and rock.[/QUOTE]I try not to argue from personal incredulity, other than in my practical life.
Philosophically I have no issue with the current state being just one of infinite possible outcomes, and randomness at the most fundamental level has given rise to it (although some may have issue that one can have a certain philosophical view without it impacting your practical life... but I'm not one of them).
Systems have developed from that initial stated= that provide some order out of the chaos - that can appear to dampen the chaos at gross levels - but this can all be done through purely deterministic processes that follow simple underlying rules.
I always like giving "Conway's Game of Life" as an example in this regard.