The Etp Model Has Been Empirically Confirmed

[billvon]

The entire commodities complex is basically cratering. Stock markets are crashing around the world. Many indicators point to a near term recession. I believe we are caught in a world wide deflationary spiral, like the Great Depression.

That's prediction #3 down the tubes:
================
The Dow raced 619 points higher on Wednesday, its most emphatic point gain since the 2008 financial crisis.
The huge rally represents a rebound following six days of dramatic selling that was driven by serious concerns about how China's slowing economy will impact the rest of the world.


The S&P 500 soared 3.9% on Wednesday, its biggest one-day percentage gain since 2011. The Nasdaq surged 4.2% higher. The Dow's point gain was the third largest in its history.
================

 

[Futilitist]

Gee billvon.

I was really enjoying the brief rational conversation we just had a couple of posts back. Now you are back to your old Harold Camping crap. Oh well. Let's see how your forecast performs vs. the Etp model as the situation unfolds. Pay back time, bro. The world may be ending and all, but I am still going to enjoy making relentless fun of you as it happens. I think it was Herbert Hoover who said, "Prosperity is just around the corner".

---EDIT---

Ha ha! Dude, that's a one day bounce. Grow up. You are going to make this too easy.

There is no such thing as a "commodities complex", except possibly as a rare psychiatric condition, suffered by certain people. Anyway, whatever else may be debatable, what is absolutely for sure is the slowdown in China has fuck-all to do with the thermodynamics of oil extraction. It is to do with the natural evolution of the Chinese economy...

And the natural evolution of the Chinese economy is thermodynamic. Duh.

As any halfway decent newspaper article can tell you.

How would any halfway decent newspaper article announce the end of the world? What would the headline say?



---Futilitist

 

[Beer w/Straw]

Have you tried to get your stuff published somewhere and if not, why not?

 

[Futilitist]

Have you tried to get your stuff published somewhere and if not, why not?

Are you kidding? I can't even get it published here!



---Futilitist

 

[billvon]

I was really enjoying the brief rational conversation we just had a couple of posts back. Now you are back to that old Harold Camping crap.

I agree that it is somewhat unfair to compare you to him. He had enough integrity to admit when his predictions failed to come to pass.

Oh well. Let's see how your forecast performs vs. the Etp model as the situation unfolds. Pay back time, bro. The world may be ending and all, but I am still going to enjoy making relentless fun of you as it happens.

Unfortunately, it seems to be all you are good at.

 

[Beer w/Straw]

Are you kidding? I can't even get it published here!

Is it possible because what you are on about is really weird?

 

[Futilitist]

Is it possible because what you are on about is really weird?

Yes. Like you, most people don't know how to react to something like this. They say the truth is often stranger than fiction. The truth can often hurt.

Unfortunately, it seems to be all you are good at.

You just called me Harold Camping yet again and now you're suggesting that I am bullying you! Ha ha!!!



---Futilitist

 

[Beer w/Straw]

Yes. Like you, most people don't know how to react to something like this. They say the truth is often stranger than fiction. The truth can often hurt.

hmmm

I could take some offense to those words, but you are way too weird.

 

[billvon]

Yes. Like you, most people don't know how to react to something like this. They say the truth is often stranger than fiction. The truth can often hurt.

I imagine it does. After seeing your imaginary apocalypse ruined three times now by the truth, I can understand your aversion to it.

 

[krash661]

Thanks for the brilliant insights there, krash.

Meanwhile, back to reality:

what a joke this is. and your whole post.
shrugs.
you do not know the reality, do not continue to fool yourself as you have already.

 

[krash661]

Gee billvon.

I was really enjoying the brief rational conversation we just had a couple of posts back. Now you are back to your old Harold Camping crap. Oh well. Let's see how your forecast performs vs. the Etp model as the situation unfolds. Pay back time, bro. The world may be ending and all, but I am still going to enjoy making relentless fun of you as it happens. I think it was Herbert Hoover who said, "Prosperity is just around the corner".

---EDIT---

Ha ha! Dude, that's a one day bounce. Grow up. You are going to make this too easy.


And the natural evolution of the Chinese economy is thermodynamic. Duh.


How would any halfway decent newspaper article announce the end of the world? What would the headline say?




---Futilitist

are you mentally disabled ?
I'm sincerely asking, seriously, are you ?

edit-
i understand that i say this all the time, but this is one of those times where i seriously want to know and truly believe you have a developmental disability.

 

[Futilitist]

---World Wide Web Update---

Rampant Apocalypse News Censorship

This was the last taunting post that billvon made to me at thescienceforum.org:

http://thescienceforum.org/topic1090-70.html#p19367

Re: The Psychology of Apocalypse
Posted by billvon » Sun Mar 01, 2015 6:05 am
Falconer360 wrote:
Futilitist wroteredicting the exact timing of the collapse is impossible. It is unreasonable, scientifically speaking, to expect that sort of precision in forecasting. With apocalypse, close is good enough.

Define close in this sense. Is close a month? Six months? A year? Five years?


I believe his initial estimate (in another forum) was that the riots would start last summer before rising oil prices plunged the world into a profound depression. $16 gas by 2015 and $32/gallon gas by 2016, followed by extinction of 90% of the human race. From his posts -

"The real apocalypse will be a complete and total social collapse, the collapse of industrial civilization, along with a rapid 90% mass die off of the species."
"When we come off of the bumpy plateau of world oil production between now and 2015, we will experience a rapid and severe die off (90+%)."
"There is no solution. Science will not save us. The laws of physics trump political will. Run for the hills."

I am sure he will provide corrections/updates to the above.

He posted this after I was banned.

I obviously couldn't reply to him. But, luckily, I remembered that during one of my many bans from that stupid site, I had created an alternate persona that I had not yet used up. So I posted my Etp confirmation (basically the OP of this very thread) as a direct answer to his tongue in cheek quest for corrections/updates.

The post stayed up for a couple days before the ever vigilant iNow realized that someone had actually left a new post on the extremely unpopular site.

The post can now be found in the special "Trash: Repository for Deleted Posts w/Futilitist" at:
http://thescienceforum.org/topic950-80.html#p20203

Along with this terse explanation for the post's trashing:

Re: The Psychology of Apocalypse
Posted by iNow » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:59 am
Futilitist was banned, which means that new accounts created by same person also will be, despite use of different name.
iNow

~~~ Pale Blue Dot ~~~

"[Time] is one of those concepts that is profoundly resistant to a simple definition." ~C. Sagan

iNow
Posts: 4080
Joined: Thu Aug 04, 2011 11:40 pm
Location: Austin, Texas

iNow is a real stickler for the rules. A bit of an authoritarian, IMHO. Unfortunately, this sort of petty suppression of the truth is quite common across the web, especially on so-called science forums.

So, anyway, this is more evidence that people don't respond well to bad news. The real problem is Groupthink.

---We now return to your regularly scheduled thread already in progess---

I imagine it does. After seeing your imaginary apocalypse ruined three times now by the truth, I can understand your aversion to it.

Imagine what it will be like when all your forecasts and your entire world view are completely discredited forever. Who knew apocalypse could be so much fun?!

---Futilitist

 

[billvon]

-This was the last taunting post that billvon made to me at thescienceforum.org:

Let me reproduce that post for you in full:

===========
I believe his initial estimate (in another forum) was that the riots would start last summer before rising oil prices plunged the world into a profound depression. $16 gas by 2015 and $32/gallon gas by 2016, followed by extinction of 90% of the human race. From his posts -

"The real apocalypse will be a complete and total social collapse, the collapse of industrial civilization, along with a rapid 90% mass die off of the species."
"When we come off of the bumpy plateau of world oil production between now and 2015, we will experience a rapid and severe die off (90+%)."
"There is no solution. Science will not save us. The laws of physics trump political will. Run for the hills."

I am sure he will provide corrections/updates to the above.
==============

It is ironic indeed that a post that consists largely of your own quotes you consider "taunting."

When your own words, repeated back to you, are considered "taunting" - you have a problem with integrity.

 

[Russ_Watters]

People without jobs don't buy much oil.

Demand is dropping rapidly....

So where will future demand come from? When millions of people are out of work, it won't matter how low the oil price goes, it won't generate demand. See?

Is it your claim then that the drop in oil prices last year was caused by a massive recession and extreme unemployment?

 

[Futilitist]

When your own words, repeated back to you, are considered "taunting" - you have a problem with integrity.

I am going to remind you that you said that. A lot.

Is it your claim then that the drop in oil prices last year was caused by a massive recession and extreme unemployment?

No Russ, obviously not. Why do you always try to put words in my mouth?

The oil price fell when the economic value of a barrel of oil had fallen well below the actual price, due to the entropy of the oil production system. You really don't understand the Etp model, do you?



---Futilitist

 

[Beer w/Straw]

The apocalypse will never happen...

The Prophet, Homer, will see a space elevator built so we may ferment the future of civilization, in God's name.

 

[Russ_Watters]

No Russ, obviously not. Why do you always try to put words in my mouth?

I didn't. You explained the mechanism right there -- it is pretty straightforward....and in that case it is accurate, having had some impact in the cause of the last recession.

The oil price fell when the economic value (EROEI) of a barrel of oil had fallen well below the actual price, due to the entropy of the oil production system.

By what mechanism, specifically, did that happen? IE, a barrel of oil, sitting in the ground in an already tapped well and recoverable at 80 a barrel suddenly became cheaper to pump out of the ground? And even if it had, why would someone sell oil at 50 a barrel if people were just a few months ago willing to pay 80?

You really don't understand the Etp model, do you?

Actually, despite the fact that I haven't been provided the details of the model and therefore can't be expected to understand it very well*, I'm reasonably certain I understand it better than you. For example, what you just said is gibberish because EROEI does not have units of money, it has units of energy. But by all means, please do state the current EROEI in units of dollars.

So, yes, while I asked you to be specific about the mechanism, I know you can't because you're just handwaving about concepts you don't understand.

*Hey futilitist, what is 1+the number of fingers I'm holding up? Or can't you do basic arithmetic?

 

[Daecon]

Seven pages of this thread is eight more than I can be bothered to read.

But concerning fossil fuels... they're not a renewable resource, so what's going to happen when they all run out?

 

[Russ_Watters]

But concerning fossil fuels... they're not a renewable resource, so what's going to happen when they all run out?

They are already running out -- they are always running out. What is happening is that people are increasing efficiency and switching to other energy sources.

 

[billvon]

But concerning fossil fuels... they're not a renewable resource, so what's going to happen when they all run out?

They will never all run out - but they will get scarce enough (and expensive enough) that alternatives will become cheaper, and so we will gradually switch to them.