I have a much, much stronger algorithm than Futilitist has. I predict that oil prices will go up or down in the future by some percentage. I can't tell you what the percentage is, and I can't tell you the direction, because it is a secret. But I am confident that my algorithm will eat the ETP algorithm for breakfast, because it is based on science and math, and those are never wrong. My algorithm will ensure that future generations can sleep confidently in the knowledge that oil prices will go up or down.
The Etp Model Has Been Empirically Confirmed
- Thread starter Futilitist
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Or hail or not hail or get wiped out by tornado or not get wiped out by tornado. Great model.That is one hell of a model he has got there. The model apparently says oil prices will be between $10 and $65! Hard to be wrong with that range.
I have a model of the weather. The predictive power rivals what meteorologist can do today; they cannot even predict accurately the weather more than 10 - 15 days out. My model can tell you the weather of any day in the next year! For instance, in my area on July 13 the high will be between 50F and 105F. That is not all, it also predicts that it will either rain or not rain.
US oil production not dropping fast enough to ease supply glut:
http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/06/investing/us-oil-production-decline-eia/index.html
CNN slants the exact same news to suit any argument. The story you picked blames the Saudis for the glut. Here is one that puts the blame squarely on US fracking:
http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/24/investing/fracking-shale-oil-boom/?iid=EL
The rise of fracking has reshaped the global energy landscape.
It recently hit a new milestone in the U.S. Fracking now accounts for more than half of all U.S. oil output, according to the Energy Information Administration. It's a stunning feat considering fracking made up less than 2% of American oil production in 2000.
Hydraulic fracturing technology, more commonly known as "fracking," paved the way for drilling into America's enormous shale deposits. It has fueled a dramatic boom in U.S. oil production.
Back in 2000, there were just 23,000 fracking wells pumping about 102,000 barrels of oil a day. Now there are 300,000 fracking wells, churning out 4.3 million barrels per day.
Fracking "has allowed the United States to increase its oil production faster than at any time in its history," the EIA said in recent report.
U.S. output has nearly doubled over the past decade and America only trails Saudi Arabia and Russia globally.
That surge in American crude is one of the main reasons why there is a global glut in oil that keeps getting worse. The excess supply caused oil prices to peak in mid-2014 and crash as much as 75% since then.
"Prices are where they are because shale has been so phenomenally successful. It's changed the whole pricing paradigm," said Tamar Essner, director of Nasdaq's energy team.
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And what is your point anyway, Russ? It doesn't matter who started the glut. The real issue is that it isn't ending any time soon. That means lower oil prices, and that is not good news.
But it is totally consistent with my forecast!
Didn't you say that oil would be around $90 a barrel by now?
---Futilitist
http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/24/investing/fracking-shale-oil-boom/?iid=EL
The rise of fracking has reshaped the global energy landscape.
It recently hit a new milestone in the U.S. Fracking now accounts for more than half of all U.S. oil output, according to the Energy Information Administration. It's a stunning feat considering fracking made up less than 2% of American oil production in 2000.
Hydraulic fracturing technology, more commonly known as "fracking," paved the way for drilling into America's enormous shale deposits. It has fueled a dramatic boom in U.S. oil production.
Back in 2000, there were just 23,000 fracking wells pumping about 102,000 barrels of oil a day. Now there are 300,000 fracking wells, churning out 4.3 million barrels per day.
Fracking "has allowed the United States to increase its oil production faster than at any time in its history," the EIA said in recent report.
U.S. output has nearly doubled over the past decade and America only trails Saudi Arabia and Russia globally.
That surge in American crude is one of the main reasons why there is a global glut in oil that keeps getting worse. The excess supply caused oil prices to peak in mid-2014 and crash as much as 75% since then.
"Prices are where they are because shale has been so phenomenally successful. It's changed the whole pricing paradigm," said Tamar Essner, director of Nasdaq's energy team.
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And what is your point anyway, Russ? It doesn't matter who started the glut. The real issue is that it isn't ending any time soon. That means lower oil prices, and that is not good news.
But it is totally consistent with my forecast!
Didn't you say that oil would be around $90 a barrel by now?
---Futilitist
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actually no, what it actually means is that you have no experience in global economics and are simply just spewing an abundance of pretending, fictitious, knowledge.
comical--except the reality is clearly displayed and not your institutionalized delusions of such.But it is totally consistent with my forecast!
Those articles do not contradict each other, you just aren't understanding what you are reading. I've explained it before, but you didn't listen then and you won't listen now:
Fracking caused the initial supply glut. Up until 2014, OPEC regulated production to keep prices high. They stopped, so prices fell. They hoped and most analysts expected that fracking would slow down rapidly and prices would rise again. They haven't.
Oh, I get it now. That's your lame excuse for your lame prediction. Yes, you and most analysts were wrong. But I was right.
---Futilitist
Of course you were.But I was right.
A most excellent apocalypse this has been so far. I hope it keeps getting worse and worse!
Well, since there is no end in sight for the oil glut, and since low oil prices are very bad for the economy, I think you will definitely get what you hope for.Of course you were.
---Futilitist
I agree with almost all of that.Well, since there is no end in sight for the oil glut, and since low oil prices are very bad for the economy, I think you will definitely get what you hope for.
Awesome! After more than 4 years of hardcore denial, you are finally starting to understand the seriousness of the situation we all face.
---Futilitist
"It was affordable at $100 and will be again at 100."
~Russ_Watters
Jan. 19 2016
When do you figure that will happen, Russ?
---Futilitist
~Russ_Watters
Jan. 19 2016
When do you figure that will happen, Russ?
---Futilitist
exchemist
Valued Senior Member
"It was affordable at $100 and will be again at 100."
~Russ_Watters
Jan. 19 2016
When do you figure that will happen, Russ?
---Futilitist
Only a fool would attempt to predict the geopolitics that will ultimately determine that.
But I think it is great that you are now talking at least in terms of current low prices being caused by a glut of oil - whether due to the .Saudis, the Iranians or the US. That is progress.
Geopolitics are irrelevant when it comes to forecasting the future price of oil. That is why I am relying on thermodynamics, instead. Based on the second law of thermodynamics, the Etp model forecasts that the yearly average price of oil will fall to around $11 a barrel by 2021.
Though the price of oil is largely determined by the laws of physics, not geopolitics, the economic dilemma of a continuously falling oil price will be the cause of great geopolitical chaos, which will likely just make things a lot worse than even the Etp forecast would indicate. This is a positive feedback of collapse.
I have been saying all along that we are having an oil glut! I have been consistently saying the same thing since beginning of this thread, and you know it. Quit trying to start over on every page to fake out the readers. It is very intellectually dishonest. And there is a trail of 65 pages of your crap, so if the readers were to look, they would see that you are obviously just faking. How much do you get paid to do this?
---Futilitist
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exchemist
Valued Senior Member
Geopolitics are irrelevant when it comes to forecasting the future price of oil. That is why I am relying on thermodynamics, instead. Based on the second law of thermodynamics, the Etp model forecasts that the yearly average price of oil will fall to around $11 a barrel by 2021.
Though the price of oil is largely determined by the laws of physics, not geopolitics, the economic dilemma of a continuously falling oil price will be the cause of great geopolitical chaos, which will likely just make things a lot worse than even the Etp forecast would indicate. This is a positive feedback of collapse.
I have been saying all along that we are having an oil glut! I have been consistently saying the same thing since beginning of this thread, and you know it. Quit trying to start over on every page to fake out the readers. It is very intellectually dishonest. And there is a trail of 65 pages of your crap, so if the readers were to look, they would see that you are obviously just faking. How much do you get paid to do this?
---Futilitist
But, but, but......... what about nested control volumes? Surely they come into it somewhere, don't they?
I don't know, it sure seems like you weren't right when you confidently proclaimed this.Oh, I get it now. That's your lame excuse for your lame prediction. Yes, you and most analysts were wrong. But I was right.
---Futilitist
I wondered how you would react to being wrong, yet again. I guess it should come as no surprise that you have decided that you will ignore reality and just continue to claim that you are always right.You sound like you almost believe that. Well, I guess this is goodbye then, since we'll obviously never see each other again, because oil prices are only going down.
---Futilitist
By the way anyone with more than half a brain knows that we are going to run out of oil. What we disagree with is your idea that the fall of civilization is within months of happening (which you have been saying for years) and your trust in the EPT 'model' (which is complete crap).
Oh boy! We get to go down woo-woo lane to the land of conspiracy theories now.....
hilarious--you are endlessly showing how you, clearly, do not have a clue of how typical this scenario is and how often it has happened over decades of time.Well, since there is no end in sight for the oil glut, and since low oil prices are very bad for the economy, I think you will definitely get what you hope for.
---Futilitist
(shakes head)--OH mY-- you are seriously clueless and pathetic.
hmm odd-- this ETP(which has collapsed functions from the beginning) forecast has changed(which can be easily linked to show this change)-- how typical..
(shakes head)comical--except anyone can easily link what you actually said and not this fictitious, manipulation, attempt that you are stating now.
this is odd--simply because i just caught you doing this exact conduct, with this exact post i am quoting.
yes-yes-- we all already know that you are--as everyone has clearly stated this about you.
i had to correct your sentence to the actual reality.
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