The Etp Model Has Been Empirically Confirmed

[Billy T]

... You guys need to try a new strategy. ... Futilitist

No we prefer to be consistent, not follow your example.

I. e. you predicted* three years ago that in 2015 there would be an annual 4 to 8% short fall in oil supply, and now claim you have been correct all along.

* Your prediction of that is here: post 128 here: http://www.sciforums.com/threads/apocalypse-soon.133084/page-7

There also you predict gasoline would cost 12 to24 dollars per gallon in 2015 and 24 to 48 dollars per gallon in 2016, but note that it is only a hypothetical prediction as the economy will have completely collapsed before 2015.

Yet you claim you are always corect - never positing nonsense!

 

[Futilitist]

Hey BillyT, you are totally boring and weirdly obsessed with a single statement I made 3 years ago. I answered you about a dozen times already. Nobody is interested in your stupid diversionary tactic. It is painfully obvious that you are just trying to draw attention away from my more recent definitive prediction:

"I think the economy is at a critical phase right now. I believe we are about to have a stock market crash. I would guess that the price of oil will soon (before 2016) drop to somewhere in the low 30s or possibly even lower."
~Futilitist, Aug 7, 2015

Here is a graph of how my prediction has turned out so far:

What do you think of my prediction and it's uncanny accuracy?

Where do you see oil prices and the stock markets heading?

These are exciting times, don't you think?


---Futilitist

 

[krash661]

What do you think of my prediction and it's uncanny accuracy?

Where do you see oil prices and the stock markets heading?

These are exciting times, don't you think?


---Futilitist

i think you are a typical one hit wonder with an algorithm--which is typical that when their systems fail(which you have admitted that your system has a malfunctioning function already) they disappear with silence--which is usually after all that mouth running they have done.

 

[Billy T]

... What do you think of my prediction and it's uncanny accuracy? ---Futilitist

Not much as all you do is extend the current trends. Three years ago in your old thread, when oil and gasoline prices were rapidly rising, you predicted gasoline would cost between 12 and 24 dollars per gallon in 2015. Now that oil and gasoline prices are rapidly falling, you predict they will fall more or at least not recover. Also you continue to predict the eminent collapse of civilization / economies - back then it was because cost of gasoline & oil would become more than people could afford; Now it is because those prices are too low to be sustainable. (of oil exploration, I assume, but you have not said why.)

What do you think, I would think of someone who predicts by which way the economic wind is currently blowing? *

Where do you see oil prices and the stock markets heading?

I expected price of oil will stay between 35 and 25 dollars, mainly, for sevaral years as Iran adds to the surplus supply. (Certainly it will not be the annual short fall of 4 to 8% you predicted for 2015 and 2016.)

I expect the stocks, say the dow, to move a little lower during 2016 but them stabilize or begin to rise in2017. I expect that the extra money in people's pockets that gasoline costing less than 1/3 of what it did, will delay the day of reckoning about the growing global debt to GDP ratio, but it will come with strong contraction in trade and other economic activity - much like during the great depression of the 1930s.

* And then claims these diametrically opposite predictions are a result of his superior understanding of "thermodynamics" which if you knew any you would know it is the only science that is totally without reference to ANY material substance! (like oil or costs /dollars)

 

[krash661]

think about this-- what happens when supplies are restrained or cut?
the funny thing is no one has even mentioned such a thing as it is typically done-- for decades now.

 

[exchemist]

The Etp model is based on the Entropy Rate Balance Equation for Control Volumes, which is a second law statement. It is correctly applied to the oil production system using 3 nested control volumes. And the Etp model produces amazingly accurate results, as has been well documented throughout this thread.

Now that my predictions are coming true, you guys want to do a song and dance and start this argument over, like we haven't already been through all of this before. Over and over. This thread is 59 pages long. If you want I can re-post the whole debate that you lost already.

You guys need to try a new strategy. Your old arguments aren't working anymore because the collapse is picking up speed and events are overtaking you. You just sound stupid denying the obvious reality that is apparent to anyone with a brain. Keep up the good work.



---Futilitist

If you can put forward a formula for the thermodynamics of oil extraction that takes into account the energy content of the oil, I am willing to discuss it further.

If you continue to maintain you can model this without taking into account this energy, then I shall stick by my previous assessment that you are a blithering idiot.

 

[Futilitist]

If you can put forward a formula for the thermodynamics of oil extraction that takes into account the energy content of the oil, I am willing to discuss it further.

If you continue to maintain you can model this without taking into account this energy, then I shall stick by my previous assessment that you are a blithering idiot.

So what? Why should anyone care what you think.



---Futilitist

 

[Kondratieff]

think about this-- what happens when supplies are restrained or cut?
the funny thing is no one has even mentioned such a thing as it is typically done-- for decades now.

This time, you will be surprised.

When the low-quality oil ((shale oil, ultra-deep oil, artic oil, heavy crude oil...)) supply dissappears after getting hammered by months and years of low oil prices, the demand will be gone along it.

I will try to explain it. It takes more and more energy to extract oil and produce its by-products. The oil industry is very energy-intensive, and this energy mostly comes from the same "oil": You need to use oil almost for everything if you want to run the Oil industry through its life-cycle (I can set a few examples: You need oil to power the mining industry that extracts the materials required for assembling a drilling rig, you need oil to transport the materials required for assembling this rig, you need oil to assemble this rig, you need oil to ship the oil barrels to a distant harbor, you need oil to build the refineries, you need oil to pave the roads that will be used by the trucks to transport gasoline, diesel, fuel-oil, kerosene..., you need oil to transport the oil workers from their home to their workplace, you need oil to power the pumps that will inject water into the oil-field and will transport/desalinate it from the sea/aquifer, you need oil to build these pumps... I think you already figured out what I meant some examples ago...).

This time, when the Oil supply from a determined shale field ((or even the Oil supply from a Future and imaginary shale field, this is occurring right now)) goes out the market ... the Oil demand required by the mining industry, by the ships, by the refineries, by the field... will be gone FOREVER. Nowadays, Oil is used to power the Oil-sector and the other economic sectors (bussiness, industry, services...) of the economy. If you use more oil in the Oil-sector, you have less Oil available for the other economic sectors of the economy. Only the other economic sectors have the ability to pay BOTH for the Oil used for the oil-sector and for the Oil used for the same economic sectors. If the other economic sectors are getting less Energy by this ongoing process, a point is reached where their ability to pay for the oil is reduced (Energy Half-Way point) The development of this situation includes ever-increasing oil inventories storing oil that cannot be absorbed by the economy and a long-term price decline...

The world is not running out of oil... is running out of economy to pay for the oil that remains in the Earth's crust - Or we could also say that the oil that is able to produce economic growth after its extraction/processing/distribution has almost been depleted...

 

[Russ_Watters]

So what? Why should anyone care what you think.

People care what he thinks because he's smarter than you.

 

[Russ_Watters]

This time, you will be surprised.

When the low-quality oil ((shale oil, ultra-deep oil, artic oil, heavy crude oil...)) supply dissappears after getting hammered by months and years of low oil prices, the demand will be gone along it.

I will try to explain it. It takes more and more energy to extract oil and produce its by-products. The oil industry is very energy-intensive, and this energy mostly comes from the same "oil": You need to use oil almost for everything if you want to run the Oil industry through its life-cycle (I can set a few examples: You need oil to power the mining industry that extracts the materials required for assembling a drilling rig, you need oil to transport the materials required for assembling this rig, you need oil to assemble this rig, you need oil to ship the oil barrels to a distant harbor, you need oil to build the refineries, you need oil to pave the roads that will be used by the trucks to transport gasoline, diesel, fuel-oil, kerosene..., you need oil to transport the oil workers from their home to their workplace, you need oil to power the pumps that will inject water into the oil-field and will transport/desalinate it from the sea/aquifer, you need oil to build these pumps... I think you already figured out what I meant some examples ago...).

This time, when the Oil supply from a determined shale field ((or even the Oil supply from a Future and imaginary shale field, this is occurring right now)) goes out the market ... the Oil demand required by the mining industry, by the ships, by the refineries, by the field... will be gone FOREVER. Nowadays, Oil is used to power the Oil-sector and the other economic sectors (bussiness, industry, services...) of the economy. If you use more oil in the Oil-sector, you have less Oil available for the other economic sectors of the economy. Only the other economic sectors have the ability to pay BOTH for the Oil used for the oil-sector and for the Oil used for the same economic sectors. If the other economic sectors are getting less Energy by this ongoing process, a point is reached where their ability to pay for the oil is reduced (Energy Half-Way point) The development of this situation includes ever-increasing oil inventories storing oil that cannot be absorbed by the economy and a long-term price decline...

The world is not running out of oil... is running out of economy to pay for the oil that remains in the Earth's crust - Or we could also say that the oil that is able to produce economic growth after its extraction/processing/distribution has almost been depleted...

All that looks about right, but your post contains no numbers. So what is the ereoi of shale oil and what is it likely to be in, say, 20 years?

 

[Kristoffer]

So what? Why should anyone care what you think.



---Futilitist

Why should anyone care what you think?

You predicted the end of the world. It didn't happen.

And your handle suggests that you've already given up, so why should anyone believe that listening to your quackery will improve anything?

 

[Futilitist]

Meanwhile, in the markets, everything was AWESOME!

Oil continued to get cheaper, and that is great news for Russ and everyone else!

$29.20/barrel

And speaking of bargains, stocks are also looking great! Just check out the deals on the DOW:

That's another -390.97 points (-2.37%) off! Wow!


How much AWESOMER can it get?



---Futilitist

 

[krash661]

This time, you will be surprised.

When the low-quality oil ((shale oil, ultra-deep oil, artic oil, heavy crude oil...)) supply dissappears after getting hammered by months and years of low oil prices, the demand will be gone along it.

I will try to explain it. It takes more and more energy to extract oil and produce its by-products. The oil industry is very energy-intensive, and this energy mostly comes from the same "oil": You need to use oil almost for everything if you want to run the Oil industry through its life-cycle (I can set a few examples: You need oil to power the mining industry that extracts the materials required for assembling a drilling rig, you need oil to transport the materials required for assembling this rig, you need oil to assemble this rig, you need oil to ship the oil barrels to a distant harbor, you need oil to build the refineries, you need oil to pave the roads that will be used by the trucks to transport gasoline, diesel, fuel-oil, kerosene..., you need oil to transport the oil workers from their home to their workplace, you need oil to power the pumps that will inject water into the oil-field and will transport/desalinate it from the sea/aquifer, you need oil to build these pumps... I think you already figured out what I meant some examples ago...).

This time, when the Oil supply from a determined shale field ((or even the Oil supply from a Future and imaginary shale field, this is occurring right now)) goes out the market ... the Oil demand required by the mining industry, by the ships, by the refineries, by the field... will be gone FOREVER. Nowadays, Oil is used to power the Oil-sector and the other economic sectors (bussiness, industry, services...) of the economy. If you use more oil in the Oil-sector, you have less Oil available for the other economic sectors of the economy. Only the other economic sectors have the ability to pay BOTH for the Oil used for the oil-sector and for the Oil used for the same economic sectors. If the other economic sectors are getting less Energy by this ongoing process, a point is reached where their ability to pay for the oil is reduced (Energy Half-Way point) The development of this situation includes ever-increasing oil inventories storing oil that cannot be absorbed by the economy and a long-term price decline...

The world is not running out of oil... is running out of economy to pay for the oil that remains in the Earth's crust - Or we could also say that the oil that is able to produce economic growth after its extraction/processing/distribution has almost been depleted...

(shakes head)

 

[krash661]

Meanwhile, in the markets, everything was AWESOME!

Oil continued to get cheaper, and that is great news for Russ and everyone else!

$29.20/barrel

And speaking of bargains, stocks are also looking great! Just check out the deals on the DOW:

That's another -390.97 points (-2.37%) off! Wow!


How much AWESOMER can it get?



---Futilitist

you do know of that there is also a way to make money as things move down, right?
ever hear of swaps and shorting?
and yes--you are correct, for longer term--everything is on sell.. you will see the mutual funds and hedge funds begin buying soon.
then you will be proven wrong again for the umpteenth time and simply disappear, simply because you are clueless of how things operate as you continue to make this obvious like joe does-- with his small business degree from university of phoenix..

 

[exchemist]

This time, you will be surprised.

When the low-quality oil ((shale oil, ultra-deep oil, artic oil, heavy crude oil...)) supply dissappears after getting hammered by months and years of low oil prices, the demand will be gone along it.

I will try to explain it. It takes more and more energy to extract oil and produce its by-products. The oil industry is very energy-intensive, and this energy mostly comes from the same "oil": You need to use oil almost for everything if you want to run the Oil industry through its life-cycle (I can set a few examples: You need oil to power the mining industry that extracts the materials required for assembling a drilling rig, you need oil to transport the materials required for assembling this rig, you need oil to assemble this rig, you need oil to ship the oil barrels to a distant harbor, you need oil to build the refineries, you need oil to pave the roads that will be used by the trucks to transport gasoline, diesel, fuel-oil, kerosene..., you need oil to transport the oil workers from their home to their workplace, you need oil to power the pumps that will inject water into the oil-field and will transport/desalinate it from the sea/aquifer, you need oil to build these pumps... I think you already figured out what I meant some examples ago...).

This time, when the Oil supply from a determined shale field ((or even the Oil supply from a Future and imaginary shale field, this is occurring right now)) goes out the market ... the Oil demand required by the mining industry, by the ships, by the refineries, by the field... will be gone FOREVER. Nowadays, Oil is used to power the Oil-sector and the other economic sectors (bussiness, industry, services...) of the economy. If you use more oil in the Oil-sector, you have less Oil available for the other economic sectors of the economy. Only the other economic sectors have the ability to pay BOTH for the Oil used for the oil-sector and for the Oil used for the same economic sectors. If the other economic sectors are getting less Energy by this ongoing process, a point is reached where their ability to pay for the oil is reduced (Energy Half-Way point) The development of this situation includes ever-increasing oil inventories storing oil that cannot be absorbed by the economy and a long-term price decline...

The world is not running out of oil... is running out of economy to pay for the oil that remains in the Earth's crust - Or we could also say that the oil that is able to produce economic growth after its extraction/processing/distribution has almost been depleted...

There are at least three things wrong with this reasoning.

First, there is no reason to think that the energy demand of oil exploration itself is that large compared to the energy content of the oil produced from it. This paper : http://psi.org.uk/pdf/Energy Working Paper - June 2005.pdf

indicates that for the UK, offshore oil & gas exploration was deemed to be responsible for around 8% of the CO2 emissions of the UK economy. Call it 10% for a round number. So ~90% of the CO2 - and hence 90% of the energy - was liberated by burning the oil and gas in the general economy.

Second, there is no reason to think that a fracking operation that is shut down is gone "forever". As soon as oil and gas become sufficiently scarce the price will rise (in accordance with the laws of supply and demand) and business will return to exploit these higher cost wells. As for the negative effect of the decline of fracking on the total economy, the fraction of it represented by the fracking industry is a tiny part of the total economy of the world. Furthermore, as we all know, when one class of business declines, economic resources switch elsewhere. People do not just sit on their arses, they get other jobs. Economies are dynamic: some businesses are always fading and others always growing. There is no reason to think the fortunes of the fracking business are in any way special in this regard.

Third, there is no reason to think energy available to economies is somehow being throttled and this will prevent them being able to afford the cost of oil. The opposite is true. We have a glut of oil. That is why the price is low. Economies can have more than they need, not less.

 

[origin]

And speaking of bargains, stocks are also looking great! Just check out the deals on the DOW:

Agreed, I really close to 'pulling the trigger' and getting back into the market, I think we will see further drops in the dow of about 500 points. But these things are so damn hard to predict...

 

[exchemist]

deleted

 

[brucep]

think about this-- what happens when supplies are restrained or cut?
the funny thing is no one has even mentioned such a thing as it is typically done-- for decades now.

My experience has been when the crack spread is getting small then a discussion about cutting unit feedrate begins. It was a rare discussion for that reason. Probably not now. Don't worry for the Independent refiners they'll be just fine. The low crack spread is also a good reason to take advantage of shutting down units for turnaround. If that makes sense with respect to maintenance requirements.

 

[brucep]

Agreed, I really close to 'pulling the trigger' and getting back into the market, I think we will see further drops in the dow of about 500 points. But these things are so damn hard to predict...

Delte double post.

 

[brucep]

Agreed, I really close to 'pulling the trigger' and getting back into the market, I think we will see further drops in the dow of about 500 points. But these things are so damn hard to predict...

This market has been so overbought just because it's been the only reasonable investment vehicle since Wall Street ruined the bond market with the sociopathic investment vehicles they contrived to rip us off. Now China is showing their ass via their contrived market where they feel confident in shutting down trading to protect the bullshit nonsense of there predicted GDP. They've been lying for as long as I've been paying attention. They didn't even take advantage of the refining advances that would have meant they don't have to breath the flue gas they call air. At least this time our economy isn't in the tank because of Wall Street. We'll see if the lack of any other investment vehicle helps this correction from being more than just a Bear market.