The Etp Model Has Been Empirically Confirmed

[Billy T]

No, Billy T, I didn't.

Here is what I actually said 3 years ago:

"After 2015, we will cross over into permanent depletion. That means about a 4-8 percent shortfall every year from then on. That is up to 2X as bad as the first oil shock in the 1970's, over and over again, every year. Hypothetically, gasoline will be 12−24 a gallon the first year, and 24−48 a gallon the next, except that the economy will completely collapse before that can happen. Alternatives are not capable of replacing oil, and even if they were, we have run out of time to react."

Notice I said "hypothetically".

And most especially notice that I was talking about gallons of gasoline, not barrels of oil! Please learn to read.

Three years ago, I suggested that if oil prices kept rising on the trajectory that they were on at the time, gasoline prices would reach 12-24 dollars/gallon by 2015. I was saying that consumers could obviously never afford gasoline prices that high. I was completely right, again! Thanks for helping to point that out. ---Futilitist

Are you now denying you predicted a 4-8 percent annual shortfall (of supply vs. demand) with the current claim of "being completely right." All predictions are hypothetical or just pure guesses. Yours was based on the physics and chemistry "foundations" of the Etp - so more "hypothetical" than just a guess - But is very terribly wrong. How can you claim to have been "completely correct" ?

The 12 to 48 dollar price range is typical of oil price per barrel, so yes I accidentally (or from habit?) initially had that instead of "per gallon."

Why can you not just admit the Ept is a crock of BS when it predicts 12 to 24 dollars / gallon gasoline price in 2015 and an annual shortfall of 4 to 8% and qualified* it by noting it would not actually happen as the economy would collapse first?

As I pointed out to you more than three years ago, Physics is an exact science - can not predict prices. Or better yet - just disappear again for a few years.

* There is not a word about continuing the rate of price rise in the quoted text - the price prediction was called "hypothetical" because you stated it would not occur - the economy would collapse first.

You are not only very wrong in your prediction, but now dishonestly twisting why you called the prediction "hypothetical."
You clearly stated that it would not occur - that is what made it "hypothetical."

 

[Futilitist]

are you now denying you predicted a 4-8 % percent annual shortfall (of supply vs. demand) with the current claim of "being completely right." All predictions are hypothetic or just pure guesses. Yours was based on the physics and chemistry "foundations" of the Etp - so more "hypothetical" than just a guess - But is very terribly wrong. How can you claim to have been "completely correct" ?

My statement from three years ago has nothing to do with the Etp model. It was made long before I even became aware of the Etp model! You are so confused!

* There is not a word about continuing the rate of price rise in the quoted text - the price prediction was called "hypothetical" because you stated it would not occur - the economy would collapse first.

And that is exactly how it turned out. By 2015, gasoline prices did not reach 12-24 dollars a gallon because the economy is starting to collapse.

You are not only very wrong in your prediction, but now dishonestly twisting why you called the prediction "hypothetical."
You clearly stated that it would not occur - that is what made it "hypothetical."

And it did not occur. Gasoline prices never reached those ridiculous levels.

Ha ha. The economy is collapsing. Oil is 30.25 a barrel. The DOW just dropped another -364.81 points today. And all you guys want to do is argue over your total misinterpretation of a valid statement I made three years ago! Wow.

I think my more recent definitive, non-hypothetical prediction is more interesting to discuss:

"I think the economy is at a critical phase right now. I believe we are about to have a stock market crash. I would guess that the price of oil will soon (before 2016) drop to somewhere in the low 30s or possibly even lower."
~Futilitist, Aug 7, 2015

---Futilitist

 

[Billy T]

I think the economy (both US and rest of the West) will collaps but not because of a short fall (compared to demand) in the oil supply. The main cause wil be excesses use of "thin air money" - living beyond our incomes for last few decades. Debt growing faster than GDP, in US, Europe et.al.

For example in bar chart below the last one year step in US national debt only is up more than 1.5 TRILLION dollars. States etc. are going into debt too as are most other countries.

Surplus oil (vs demand) has dramatically lowered the price and post poned for some years the economic collaps.

 

[Futilitist]

Just to be clear, here was my prediction:

"I think the economy is at a critical phase right now. I believe we are about to have a stock market crash. I would guess that the price of oil will soon (before 2016) drop to somewhere in the low 30s or possibly even lower."
~Futilitist, Aug 7, 2015

Here is a graph of how my prediction has turned out so far:

Since my prediction, the DOW has fallen 1217 points, from 17367 down to 16150. And oil has fallen from 48.38 all the way down to 30.25.


---Futilitist

 

[Futilitist]

Hey Billy T. Speaking of easy money and oil gluts, check this out:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...-helped-create-global-oil-glut-1-simple-chart

Correlation Or Causation: How The Fed Helped Create The Global Oil Glut (In 1 Simple Chart)


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 19:45 -0500




Easy money by The Fed expanding their balance sheet ENABLED tight oil to be produced 'economically'...

But the signals this sent to the market became self-fulfilling (thanks to an endless Fed put) further creating record US crude production (as the oil 'gold rush' ensued), forcing a real 'deflating' world to be 'glutted' with ever-increasing output of mal-investment-driven 'expensive' oil...

of course until that facade of 'boom', busted and crushed the price of the over-produced by 75% (back to 'reality')

Can you spot the moment The Fed jumped the shark?

......

I think it is very interesting to note that the Fed initiated QE3 right after the 2012 Etp crossover (the point where Etp curve intersects Etp max oil price curve). But all that easy Fed money was no longer able to make the price of oil rise. All it did was keep raising production, which made the glut much worse. And this is what made the oil price drop even lower than Etp model forecast. That makes sense.



---Futilitist

 

[origin]

All it did was keep raising production, which made the glut much worse. And this is what made the oil price drop even lower than Etp model forecast. That makes sense.
---Futilitist

I thought you said the scarcity of oil would drive down the price?

 

[Futilitist]

I thought you said the scarcity of oil would drive down the price?

I never said that.

I said that the consumer's oil affordability would decline due to oil's rapidly declining net energy benefit to the economy. This is because of the rising cost of oil production. Production costs have risen exponentially because of the rise in entropy production (second law of thermodynamics) in the oil production system over the course of the oil production life cycle.

Basically, oil no longer gives sufficient bang for the buck for civilization to continue it's use.



---Futilitist

 

[origin]

The long term trend for prices is downward. Economists, and their ilk may attempt to blame the recession for the lack of demand, but common sense has never been their strong suite. The word "depletion" never got into their dictionary, and depletion of a irreplaceable commodity is what we are seeing.

It sure sounds like you said that!

 

[Futilitist]

It sure sounds like you said that!

It sounds like that to you, perhaps. I think something is lost in your translation. You seem to misunderstand the use of the word depletion in the quote.

And I am pretty sure I never said those words. I think you are quoting BWHill.

Quit trying to put words in my mouth.



---Futilitist

 

[Futilitist]

"In the aggregate, I am certain that I am correct. This would be because of the basic laws of physics, especially thermodynamics."
~Futilitist

From the "Apocalypse Soon?" thread.
February 2, 2013

It has always been about thermodynamics.

Check out the current price of Brent Crude oil:

$29.95

It was as low as 29.69 just a couple of hours ago.


---Futilitist

 

[Russ_Watters]

Funny stuff from someone who has never studied thermodynamics.

 

[Futilitist]

Funny stuff from someone who has never studied thermodynamics.

Gee Russ, you have a lot of nerve. You and I had a rousing debate on the second law of thermodynamics and you lost, big time. Remember? You are being very disingenuous to pretend that didn't happen. The readers should not be confused by this lame trick. They should check out pages 50-55 of this thread to see that you are the one who doesn't understand physics.



---Futilitist

 

[Russ_Watters]

Yesterday, I bought gas that was so cheap - so "affordable" - that I sprayed some on the ground just because I could afford to! Under $2 a gallon for the first time in 8 years! The awesomeness continues!

Gee Russ, you have a lot of nerve. You and I had a rousing debate on the second law of thermodynamics and you lost, big time. Remember? You are being very disingenuous to pretend that didn't happen. The readers should not be confused by this lame trick. They should check out pages 50-55 of this thread to see that you are the one who doesn't understand physics.

Hehe - I think he might actually believe that! Fute, can I have your car when gas is too cheap for you to afford it?

 

[exchemist]

Funny stuff from someone who has never studied thermodynamics.

Indeed. Don't forget he posted, five or six times over, an expression to explain the thermodynamics of "the oil production system" that did not include any term for the energy content of the oil!

 

[origin]

$29.95

It was as low as 29.69 just a couple of hours ago.


---Futilitist

Hooray! I feel sorry for anyone that loses their job in the oil industry, but for the rest of us this is great. Gasoline is going to go back up but for now it sure is nice!

 

[origin]

Gee Russ, you have a lot of nerve. You and I had a rousing debate on the second law of thermodynamics and you lost, big time.

You don' t understand thermodynamics as Russ and the rest of us pointed out nor you do not understand economics.

 

[Futilitist]

Indeed. Don't forget he posted, five or six times over, an expression to explain the thermodynamics of "the oil production system" that did not include any term for the energy content of the oil!

The Etp model is based on the Entropy Rate Balance Equation for Control Volumes, which is a second law statement. It is correctly applied to the oil production system using 3 nested control volumes. And the Etp model produces amazingly accurate results, as has been well documented throughout this thread.

Now that my predictions are coming true, you guys want to do a song and dance and start this argument over, like we haven't already been through all of this before. Over and over. This thread is 59 pages long. If you want I can re-post the whole debate that you lost already.

You guys need to try a new strategy. Your old arguments aren't working anymore because the collapse is picking up speed and events are overtaking you. You just sound stupid denying the obvious reality that is apparent to anyone with a brain. Keep up the good work.



---Futilitist

 

[exchemist]

I never said that.

I said that the consumer's oil affordability would decline due to oil's rapidly declining net energy benefit to the economy. This is because of the rising cost of oil production. Production costs have risen exponentially because of the rise in entropy production (second law of thermodynamics) in the oil production system over the course of the oil production life cycle.

Basically, oil no longer gives sufficient bang for the buck for civilization to continue it's use.



---Futilitist

..........if you use a thermodynamic formula that leaves out the energy content of the oil, that is.

Durrh!

 

[Russ_Watters]

Ya know, you can use hydrocarbons like propane as refrigerants. Maybe that's what he was after when ignoring its combustion energy?

 

[krash661]

$29.95

It was as low as 29.69 just a couple of hours ago.

cute--it is comical how you think a couple of ticks are meaningful-- that is solely from a lack of any experience.
(shakes head)