The Etp Model Has Been Empirically Confirmed

[exchemist]

Did you get to a Yahoo page about the 475 billion? - I tried to revisit the page I read a couple of weeks ago and it has been taken down. Almost as if actively suppressed. Also I scanned some of the Google hits on ON RRP, and they seem to be asserting that the fed only sells securites for cash - does not take bad loans off the hands of the lender before the close of books each day as was originally stated.

If the fed only accepts cash then this new program is not just hiding "papering over" bad assets on bank and other's books at the close of day - not a danger to the economy. I wish I could re-read the Yahoo paper that led me to believe the fed was acepting low quality paper for US treasury notes. - but is gone now.

It is hard to believe that banks and cororate America, had 475 billion in cash to send to the Fed for a 0.25% interest (annual rate).

Now now, don't start insinuating conspiracies. You are beginning to sound like Asspain, I mean Fute!

Do you REALLY think there is a conspiracy to hush up an embarrassing debt here? Who would have to be in on it? And how would they all be sworn to secrecy? Come on!

 

[Russ_Watters]

Did you get to a Yahoo page about the 475 billion? - I tried to revisit the page I read a couple of weeks ago and it has been taken down. Almost as if actively suppressed.

Stop being paranoid. You're copying and pasting the link from the forum and that causes broken link errors due to truncation by forum software. I found the article easily enough with google.

 

[brucep]

Now now, don't start insinuating conspiracies. You are beginning to sound like Asspain, I mean Fute!

Do you REALLY think there is a conspiracy to hush up an embarrassing debt here? Who would have to be in on it? And how would they all be sworn to secrecy? Come on!

You should read some of the nonsense he wrote down in his thread where he was trying to predict the collapse of modern civilization. He was trying to predict it to the day. The day passed a couple of years ago so his thread died. IE he quit propping it up. He still thinks that what's going to happen as evidenced by his propensity for his paranoid sensationalism when discussing stuff like Futilists brain dead analysis. Doomsday crankism.

 

[krash661]

There are none so blind as those who choose not to see.

when prices move back up here around spring and stabilize--you will simply disappear with silence. again-- this prediction of mine is from experience.

 

[Futilitist]

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil is 30.53/barrel right now, but earlier today it broke below 30 dollars to 29.92, the lowest oil price since December, 2003!

You guys are all whistling past the graveyard.



---Futilitist

 

[krash661]

as i just went long the march contract(15 contracts so far at 30.21) and dec' 16(also 15 so far at 38.10), again.
when prices move back up here around spring and stabilize--you will simply disappear with silence. again-- this prediction of mine is from experience.

 

[Billy T]

Stop being paranoid. You're copying and pasting the link from the forum and that causes broken link errors due to truncation by forum software. I found the article easily enough with google.*

I think most probable is Yahoo is actively suppressing it as it had errors - many times saying the new ON RRPs were "window dressing" to help banks with weak balance sheets.

It is not like that web site does not exist or the link is "broken" what ever that means. The internet deamon tells you that. Instead of that, you connect to a web page, but what is there is a single line at the top of the regular Yahoo home page that says something like: "The page you are seeking is not available." Yahoo actively took it down. No conspiracy suggested.

* Please give me any link to it that works. I want re-read it. Perhaps I made an error - mis read their frequent use of "window dressing" bank books as stating the Fed was swapping treasuries for low quality bonds for a few hours until swap was reversed, after close of business each night.

I too tried to recovery it from Google, mainly by searching on "window dressing" + Yahoo

 

[Billy T]

Getting back on subject; I thought it would be informative to quote from a Futilitis post predicting that there will be an oil supply problem and gasoline prices after 2015 as it is now "after 2015."

"After 2015, we will cross over into permanent {oil} depletion. That means about a 4-8 percent shortfall every year from then on. ... Hypothetically, gasoline will be 12 - 24 a gallon the first year, and 24 - 48 {dollars/ gallon} the next, except that the economy will completely collapse before that can happen. Alternatives are not capable of replacing oil, and even if they were, we have run out of time to react."

This is part of his post 128 here: http://www.sciforums.com/threads/apocalypse-soon.133084/page-7

You will be hard pressed to find a better example of "hoist-by-your-own-petard."

 

[Russ_Watters]

I think most probable is Yahoo is actively suppressing it....

Stop. Just...please....stop. That's insane.

It is not like that web site does not exist or the link is "broken" what ever that means.

A broken link is a link that does not work for any reason (either the page doesn't work or the link itself doesn't point you to it). In this case it doesn't work because it is typed wrong. Hover your cursor over the link you posted and see what the actual link you posted is: most of the addressed has been replaced by the "..." because you are improperly copying/pasting it. Where are you getting the link you are using anyway? Did you save it to a text file on your computer?

* Please give me any link to it that works. I want re-read it. Perhaps I made an error...

I could link you to the actual article, but for funzies, here is a link to a google search that finds *your* original post where you first linked it. You can click through to the link in your own post and see that it still works.
https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=billy yahoo news sciforums 475

 

[Billy T]

... here is a link to a google search that finds *your* original post where you first linked it. You can click through to the link in your own post and see that it still works. ...

Thanks; but even though I got that google link OK and then "clicked thru it" (on the link in my post Google found) I still get at the top of a regular Yahoo page:

Hmmm... the page you're looking for isn't here. Try searching above.
not the original Yahoo text telling about "window dressing" and the 475 Billion I could once link to previously.
As the msg with (bear?) suggests at end I could search using the box just above the bear's msg, but don't know on what to search.

Is it not possible to just give me the link you say works?

By edit later: I did some more searching and still could not find the link without "..." in it, which no doubt is why it fails to get to the Yahoo article with many references to the ON PPR as "window dressing" but did find support for the 475 billion, which you asked for originally:

First, on December 31, 2015, the Fed sold an unprecedented $475 billion in Treasury securities to banks, brokers and funds through its reverse repo facility. This was the highest amount sold through the facility and was 40% greater than the prior high 18 months ago.

I am not going to waste more time on this "off thread" problem.

In post 1148 I tried to return the thread to the subject, by quoting Futilitist's old post making predictions that gasoline would cost "12 to 24 dollars per gallon in 2015" and that falling oil supply would be the cause of the price rise. He predicted there that in 2016 gasoline would between 24 and 48 dollars per gallon.

He very frequently claims: "I have been right along." and that it is physic and math which leads to this and other Etp conclusions.

 

[origin]

Getting back on subject; I thought it would be informative to quote from a Futilitis post predicting that there will be an oil supply problem and gasoline prices after 2015 as it is now "after 2015."

"After 2015, we will cross over into permanent {oil} depletion. That means about a 4-8 percent shortfall every year from then on. ... Hypothetically, gasoline will be 12 - 24 a gallon the first year, and 24 - 48 {dollars/ gallon} the next, except that the economy will completely collapse before that can happen. Alternatives are not capable of replacing oil, and even if they were, we have run out of time to react."

That was Futilitis old idea, his new idea is that as oil is depleted the price of gasoline will go down. But don't worry he still thinks the end of the world is just around the corner.

 

[Russ_Watters]

Thanks; but even though I got that google link OK and then "clicked thru it" (on the link in my post Google found) I still get at the top of a regular Yahoo page:

Hmmm... the page you're looking for isn't here. Try searching above.
not the original Yahoo text telling about "window dressing" and the 475 Billion I could once link to previously.
As the msg with (bear?) suggests at end I could search using the box just above the bear's msg, but don't know on what to search.

Is it not possible to just give me the link you say works?

http://news.yahoo.com/-475-billion-...s-in-credit--mutual-funds-023901085.html?nf=1

Make sure you are *clicking* the link and not trying to copy and paste it.

 

[Futilitist]

"I think the economy is at a critical phase right now. I believe we are about to have a stock market crash. I would guess that the price of oil will soon (before 2016) drop to somewhere in the low 30s or possibly even lower."
~Futilitist, Aug 7, 2015

When I made this prediction the price of Brent Oil was 48.38/barrel!

It is now 30.24/barrel. So my prediction was very accurate.

I also predicted a stock market crash. Although I was a little off on the timing of that part of my prediction, the stock market crash seems to be well under way now.



---Futilitist

 

[krash661]

you will simply disappear with silence. again-- this prediction of mine is from experience.

 

[Billy T]

... So my prediction was very accurate. ... ---Futilitist

Not the one in this post of your's from sightly more than three years ago post 128 here: http://www.sciforums.com/threads/apocalypse-soon.133084/page-7

In it you predict gasoline will be 12 to 24 dollars a gallon in 2015; with an annual short fall of supply (vs demand) of 4 to 8 % and continuing at that rate into 2016 when the annual shortage will drive the price up to 12 to 24 dollars per gallon.

 

[Futilitist]

In it you predict oil will be 12 to 24 dollars a brl in 2015.

No, Billy T, I didn't.

Here is what I actually said 3 years ago:

"After 2015, we will cross over into permanent depletion. That means about a 4-8 percent shortfall every year from then on. That is up to 2X as bad as the first oil shock in the 1970's, over and over again, every year. Hypothetically, gasoline will be 12−24 a gallon the first year, and 24−48 a gallon the next, except that the economy will completely collapse before that can happen. Alternatives are not capable of replacing oil, and even if they were, we have run out of time to react."

Notice I said "hypothetically".

And most especially notice that I was talking about gallons of gasoline, not barrels of oil! Please learn to read.

Three years ago, I suggested that if oil prices kept rising on the trajectory that they were on at the time, gasoline prices would reach 12-24 dollars/gallon after 2015. I was saying that consumers could obviously never afford gasoline prices that high. I was completely right, again! Thanks for helping to point that out.



---Futilitist

 

[krash661]

Hypothetically, gasoline will be 12−24 a gallon the first year, and 24−48 a gallon the next,
Notice I said "hypothetically".

I was completely right, again! Thanks for helping to point that out.



---Futilitist

well--- are you not wrong?
RB, right this moment: 1.0569

 

[Russ_Watters]

I also predicted a stock market crash. Although I was a little off on the timing of that part of my prediction, the stock market crash seems to be well under way now.

It would appear that you don't know what a stock market crash is.

I was completely right, again! Thanks for helping to point that out.

Hehe - think he may actually believe that!

 

[Futilitist]

well--- are you not wrong?

Of course not. Three years ago, when oil prices were still rising, I suggested that (if the then upward price trajectory were to continue) oil prices would eventually reach ridiculous levels that consumers could obviously never afford. In other words, those prices would be impossible. So my statement was accurate.



---Futilitist

 

[krash661]

Of course not. Three years ago, when oil prices were still rising, I suggested that (if the then upward price trajectory were to continue) oil prices would eventually reach ridiculous levels that consumers could obviously never afford. In other words, those prices would be impossible. So my statement was accurate.



---Futilitist

RB, right this moment: 1.0569 i am looking at rb on my think or swim right this moment.
(shrugs)
(fut)
" gasoline prices would reach 12-24 dollars/gallon after 2015. "
" After 2015,[...] Hypothetically, gasoline will be 12−24 a gallon the first year, and 24−48 a gallon the next,"
do you think, in your flawed, delusional manner, that you are right simply because the economy has not collapsed?
because i just shown you too be incorrect/wrong .