Supreme Court Upholds Gun Right

In the decade before our buyback and change in gun laws there were 112 people shot dead in 11 mass shootings. Port Arthur being by far the worst. In the decade since there have been none. That's pretty significant.

But there were 207 murders during 2007, so what have you proved?

112 people murdered in a decade, 207 in a year, doesn't seem to be any improvement.

Meanwhile they seem to happen every month in the US.
You can't multiply the rate per thousand by fourteen, that is ridiculous. The murder rate may increase but not by the factor of the population increase. Unless of course the number of police didn't change at all, buts lets assume it also increased proportionally.

Actually as the population increases there is a exponential increase in crime.

JSTOR: The Influence of Population Density on Crime
As the population increases crime increases at a still greater rate. ..... population Year Index of crime rate population increase density influence 1901 . ...
http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0162-1459(193103)26:173<11:TIOPDO>2.0.CO;2-X
 
shaman:
. In the decade since there have been none.

The Monash shooting? The shooting in Melbourne where that thug shot three people?

As I repeatedly tried to explain to Bells, there were no mass shootings for a decade prior to those anti-gun laws. Yet after institution of the anti-gun laws in response to the Port Arthur massacre, another shooting spree occurred SIX years later.

Lax gun laws = No shooting spree for 10 years.

Tighter gun laws = No sheeting spree for 6 years.

So yeah, trying to tout success with the argument 'there hasn't been a shooting spree for X years!' falls flat on its ass. It becomes tragically humourous when these people respond by saying "Umm, that's just proof we need MORE restrictive gun laws!" It never ends with these retards.

It's clear from this thread that more people than just Bells need to learn the difference between correlation and causation. In fact, perhaps they need to learn how to establish a correlation in the first place.
 
phlog:
What you dont seem to grasp Buffalo, is that the USA has a homicide rate 4x that of the UK, and guns don't appear to be keeping you safer than us. You aren't using guns to defend yourself successfully, because if you were, I'd expect to see a lower homicide rate, but instead, it's 4x ours.

False. I suggest you take a course in elementary logic. If what you stated above is true, all that we can draw from such a statement is that, well, the USA has a higher homicide rate than the UK. That's not an argument for restricting guns. In fact, I could turn it around and argue that since the U.S.A has such a high homicide rate, your need for a firearm to defend yourself is actually greater.
 
But there were 207 murders during 2007, so what have you proved?

112 people murdered in a decade, 207 in a year, doesn't seem to be any improvement.
No you misunderstand. 112 people were killed in mass shootings alone. After the change in laws there have been no mass shootings.


* I found another source that said the number was actually 104 in fifteen years.


Actually as the population increases there is a exponential increase in crime.

JSTOR: The Influence of Population Density on Crime
As the population increases crime increases at a still greater rate. ..... population Year Index of crime rate population increase density influence 1901 . ...
http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0162-1459(193103)26:173<11:TIOPDO>2.0.CO;2-X
You are confusing population with population density.

Come on you can't multiply the crime rate by the population. How would the US compare to China and India then? It is a misuse of statistics.

Sure what worked in Australia may not work in the US but don't be so quick to dismiss it.
 
shaman:
Come on you can't multiply the crime rate by the population. How would the US compare to China and India then? It is a misuse of statistics.

LOL!

You attribute the U.S's higher homicide rate to gun laws. Buffalo attributes it to differences in demographics (population and population density). Both hypothesis are speculation.
 
shaman:
The Monash shooting? The shooting in Melbourne where that thug shot three people?
Only two people were killed so the Monash shooting was not a mass shooting. It's not my definition.
As I repeatedly tried to explain to Bells, there were no mass shootings for a decade prior to those anti-gun laws.
What are you talking about? Port Arthur was the 13th mass shooting in fifteen years.

Yet after institution of the anti-gun laws in response to the Port Arthur massacre, another shooting spree occurred SIX years later.

Lax gun laws = No shooting spree for 10 years.
No shooting spree? Are you just pretending that Port Arthur didn't happen?

Tighter gun laws = No sheeting spree for 6 years.
11 mass shootings in ten years before. No mass shootings since. OK lets include the Monash shooting, 11 in ten years vs 1 in ten years.

So yeah, trying to tout success with the argument 'there hasn't been a shooting spree for X years!' falls flat on its ass. It becomes tragically humourous when these people respond by saying "Umm, that's just proof we need MORE restrictive gun laws!" It never ends with these retards.

It's clear from this thread that more people than just Bells need to learn the difference between correlation and causation. In fact, perhaps they need to learn how to establish a correlation in the first place.
It's clear from this thread that some people need to do some research before they enter a discussion. What is tragically humorous lepustimidus is that you don't seem to know the subject matter yet you are calling people "retards". Do it again and I will report you.
 
shaman:
Only two people were killed so the Monash shooting was not a mass shooting. It's not my definition.

I don't give a shit about your 'definition'. A guy took a gun and started shooting indiscriminately at people, killing two and wounding five. The fact that he was a shit shot doesn't change the fact that it was a mass shooting.

What are you talking about? Port Arthur was the 13th mass shooting in fifteen years.

Whoops, I wasn't aware that a massacre occurred in 1991. My mistake.

Nevertheless, from 1901 to 1984, there was not one shooting spree in Australia, despite the absence of the gun laws implemented after the Port Arthur massacre. That's, what, 83 years shooting spree free?

It's clear from this thread that some people need to do some research before they enter a discussion. What is tragically humorous lepustimidus is that you don't seem to know the subject matter yet you are calling people "retards". Do it again and I will report you.

Report away. Retard.
 
shaman:
No I don't think it's that simple. I do however, think that a gun buyback scheme and tightening the laws would reduce the number of shootings in the US.

I think that imposing a curfew, and locking up any overly aggressive blacks would also reduce the number of shootings.

A very slight increase in your chance of getting shot is the price you pay for freedom. Deal with it.
 
shaman:
I don't give a shit about your 'definition'. A guy took a gun and started shooting indiscriminately at people, killing two and wounding five. The fact that he was a shit shot doesn't change the fact that it was a mass shooting.
OK but if the definition was not 3 or more people then the number before the change on laws may even be higher. Even if we chose to include Monash there is still a significant change in the numbers.

New restrictions came in after the Monash shooting too.

Whoops, I wasn't aware that a massacre occurred in 1991. My mistake.

Nevertheless, from 1901 to 1984, there was not one shooting spree in Australia, despite the absence of the gun laws implemented after the Port Arthur massacre. That's, what, 83 years shooting spree free?
Well I find it very hard to believe that there were none. But the fact is that there were eleven in the decade before Port Arthur. Guns were more effective and available than they were earlier in the century so there are different factors.

Report away. Retard.
Fine
 
shaman:
Well I find it very hard to believe that there were none.

You're welcome to trawl the net looking for mass shootings between 1901-1984.

But the fact is that there were eleven in the decade before Port Arthur.

And the fact is that there were none (at least, none recorded on wiki) for the 83 years prior to 1984, when the Port Arthur anti-gun laws weren't in existence. For Christ's sake, Australian citizens owned ex-military rifles, yet there was no 'Port Arthur' during those 83 years.

Guns were more effective

Conjecture.

and available than they were earlier in the century

More conjecture.

so there are different factors

Maybe, maybe not. However, it's quite fallacious to claim victory after 6 years of no mass shootings, when Australia went for 83 years without a mass shooting when citizens were toting ex-military assault rifles.
 
Oh, look, an article was published in the British Journal of Criminology in 2006. What does it have to say?


http://bjc.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/abstract/azl084v1

Mass murders in Dunblane, United Kingdom, and Port Arthur, Australia, provoked rapid responses from the governments of both countries. Major changes to Australian laws resulted in a controversial buy-back of longarms and tighter legislation. The Australian situation enables evaluation of the effect of a national buy-back, accompanied by tightened legislation in a country with relatively secure borders. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) was used to predict future values of the time series for homicide, suicide and accidental death before and after the 1996 National Firearms Agreement (NFA). When compared with observed values, firearm suicide was the only parameter the NFA may have influenced, although societal factors could also have influenced observed changes. The findings have profound implications for future firearm legislation policy direction.

I repeat: AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) was used to predict future values of the time series for homicide, suicide and accidental death before and after the 1996 National Firearms Agreement (NFA). When compared with observed values, firearm suicide was the only parameter the NFA may have influenced, although societal factors could also have influenced observed changes.

Fancy that.
 
shaman:
You're welcome to trawl the net looking for mass shootings between 1901-1984.
It is hardly relevant going back that far. The weaponry available today simply did not exist back then. Hey why not go back thousands of years!

And the fact is that there were none (at least, none recorded on wiki) for the 83 years prior to 1984, when the Port Arthur anti-gun laws weren't in existence. For Christ's sake, Australian citizens owned ex-military rifles, yet there was no 'Port Arthur' during those 83 years.
Use your common sense. There were most likely shootings but the data is just not available on wikipedia.

Port Arthur was the thirteenth in fifteen years. http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/1214-08.htm

... and there have been none since.


*One if you want to include Monash but then the previous figure may be higher.

Conjecture.
No, weaponry has become more effective over time. That is a fact.

Maybe, maybe not. However, it's quite fallacious to claim victory after 6 years of no mass shootings, when Australia went for 83 years without a mass shooting when citizens were toting ex-military assault rifles.
Thirteen in fifteen years and then none since. It's not a matter of claiming victory but surely that is a significant statistic.
 
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shaman:
It is hardly relevant going back that far. The weaponry available today simply did not exist back then.

Handguns didn't exist in the 1950's? Assault rifles didn't exist in the 1950's?

Hey why got go back thousands of years!

Good strawman.

Ignoring your obfuscation, you need to explain why guns managed to exist for 83 years in Australia without a major massacre occuring, despite the absence of the restrictive gun laws now in place.

There were most likely shootings but the data is just not available on wikipedia.

Then find them. If there were indeed mass shootings, they would be recorded, yes? Massacres tend to be highly publicised, not swept under the carpet.

No, weaponry has become more effective over time. That is a fact.

No, it's conjecture to assume that the guns in circulation 50 years ago were less lethal than those in circulation today.

I also note that you failed to address my observation that your claim that guns were not as available prior to 1984 is... wait for it... conjecture!

Thirteen in fifteen years and then none since.

It's not a matter of claiming victory but surely that is a significant statistic.

What makes you think that it's significant? What measures of statistical significance have you performed?

I for one don't think it's significant. I keep pointing out that for 83 years prior to 1984, there were no shooting sprees. You try to explain this away due to 'other variables', yet fail to do likewise for the 6 years after the Monash shooting (12, if we work from Port Arthur).

I'm not presumptious enough to claim that 83 years shooting spree free is evidence that restrictive gun laws promote shooting sprees, so why do you have the gall to claim that a meager 6 (or 8) years is proof that these same restrictive gun laws prevent shooting sprees?
 
shaman:


Handguns didn't exist in the 1950's? Assault rifles didn't exist in the 1950's?
You are going back to 1901! lol

They certainly existed in the 80s and 90s and there were thirteen mass shootings in fifteen years. See below.

Good strawman.

Ignoring your obfuscation, you need to explain why guns managed to exist for 83 years in Australia without a major massacre occuring, despite the absence of the restrictive gun laws now in place.
While I seriously doubt your claim, and understand that you're pretending that you don't realise that crime stats going way back are often not available, we'll move on to possible reasons. With the advances in technology improving the news media the lure to go down in a blaze of glory increased throughout the century. By the mid nineties we even had the internet. Somewhere along the line some spree killers received enormous notoriety for what they did and so others have noticed how famous you can get - fast. That is a factor as to why they became more common later in the century in Australia, as is population increase, as is the more effective weaponry and perhaps even the decline in military operations in Australia.

Then find them. If there were indeed mass shootings, they would be recorded, yes? Massacres tend to be highly publicised, not swept under the carpet.
.. and they were publicised. Thirteen of them were in fifteen years. None since the change in laws.

No, it's conjecture to assume that the guns in circulation 50 years ago were less lethal than those in circulation today.
Actually you were going back 100 years.... Not 50.

I also note that you failed to address my observation that your claim that guns were not as available prior to 1984 is... wait for it... conjecture!
My point was that weaponry in the 80s was somewhat more powerful and available that what it was at the beginning of the century, which you seem keen to go back to.

But these points are petty. You can look back into history if you want and you can convince yourself that there were no mass shootings but the key consideration here is that they were happening regularly in the 90s when the law changed and then they stopped. That is very important.

What makes you think that it's significant?
Are you serious? Thirteen in fifteen years, then none for the ten years following the buyback and change in laws. Do you need to see it on a graph?

I'm not presumptious enough to claim that 83 years shooting spree free is evidence that restrictive gun laws promote shooting sprees, so why do you have the gall to claim that a meager 6 (or 8) years is proof that these same restrictive gun laws prevent shooting sprees?
I am saying that these laws and a buyback scheme will reduce shooting sprees. The stats are blatantly obvious; A mass shooting nearly every year for fifteen years and the not one for ten years.
 
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Are you serious? Thirteen in fifteen years, then none for the ten years following the buyback and change in laws. Do you need to see it on a graph?

Sounds like your the one who needs a graph. 0 shooting spreees for 83 years then 12 in fifteen once some gun control laws were introduced. There may have not been one shooting spree since then, but there was no shooting sprees before, so obviously there is another factor that is influencing the shooting sprees

I am saying that these laws and a buyback scheme will reduce shooting sprees. The stats are blatantly obvious; A mass shooting nearly every year for fifteen years and the not one for ten years.

Actually you are gambling on a fallacy. You mistakenly believe a person who is planning to commit a mass murder will not also decide to get an illegal weapon. Your stats are flawed as prior to that 15 year period was an 83 year period of lax guncontrol laws and a complete lack of shooting sprees.
 
Sounds like your the one who needs a graph. 0 shooting spreees for 83 years then 12 in fifteen once some gun control laws were introduced.

Firstly the thirteen in fifteen years occured before the gun laws were introduced.

Secondly, if you go back 83 years you go though periods where there were strong gun laws.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_politics_in_Australia

"Through the 1920s; Australia, Canada and Great Britain were concerned about the rise of Communism in light of the Bolshevik Revolution in Russia, and imposed restrictions on handguns[4]. "
"Fully-automatic arms have been banned in the Australian mainland since the 1930s, but remained legal in Tasmania until 1996."

"In the 1940s and 1950s, Cold War concerns about ex-military rifles falling into the hands of communist radicals led a number of states to place restrictions on the legal ownership of rifles of a military calibre "

"The Australian state of New South Wales is a prime example of these laws that were introduced in Australia during the 1940s and 1950s.
In the 1970s and 1980s these restrictions were relaxed and military style rifles (both bolt-action and semi-automatic) once again became widely available except in Western Australia and the Northern Territory.
"


The laws were relaxed in the period leading up to the massacres.

Kind of ruins that whole "83 years of lax gun laws" argument doesn't it?

There may have not been one shooting spree since then, but there was no shooting sprees before, so obviously there is another factor that is influencing the shooting sprees
Of course there is other factors. The term "going postal" didn't even exist until the 90s. However enough people have gained enough fame now that sick people know they will be read about on the other side of the world immediately after their final acts. There are other factors we can't do that much about, but we can do something about the availability of weaponry. In Australia it certainly appears to have made a difference.

Actually you are gambling on a fallacy. You mistakenly believe a person who is planning to commit a mass murder will not also decide to get an illegal weapon. Your stats are flawed as prior to that 15 year period was an 83 year period of lax guncontrol laws and a complete lack of shooting sprees.
Well your argument here is flawed for reasons stated above.

Regarding the planning, if a person is eager enough they will be able to get a weapon. Reducing the number of guns in the community, and the power of these weapons makes it harder for them though. You are not going to stop all of them but you will catch or impede some of them.

Do you lock you house up when you go out? Why? Any burgler who really wants to get in will. You make it as difficult as possible.
 
lepustimidus:

Do not insult other members of sciforums, or you may be banned.
 
Heh, the Supreme court decides that weapons are a right. How long before it decides that killing is a right?

Never.

Anything can be used as a weapon, the gun just happens to be the best device. We should disband ropes, cars, small choking pieces, and baseball bats. (not really of course)

If a man broke into your home Sam, wouldn't you be glad you had a gun to take him out?
 
Firstly the thirteen in fifteen years occured before the gun laws were introduced.

Secondly, if you go back 83 years you go though periods where there were strong gun laws.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_politics_in_Australia

"Through the 1920s; Australia, Canada and Great Britain were concerned about the rise of Communism in light of the Bolshevik Revolution in Russia, and imposed restrictions on handguns[4]. "
"Fully-automatic arms have been banned in the Australian mainland since the 1930s, but remained legal in Tasmania until 1996."

"In the 1940s and 1950s, Cold War concerns about ex-military rifles falling into the hands of communist radicals led a number of states to place restrictions on the legal ownership of rifles of a military calibre "

"The Australian state of New South Wales is a prime example of these laws that were introduced in Australia during the 1940s and 1950s.
In the 1970s and 1980s these restrictions were relaxed and military style rifles (both bolt-action and semi-automatic) once again became widely available except in Western Australia and the Northern Territory.
"


The laws were relaxed in the period leading up to the massacres.

Kind of ruins that whole "83 years of lax gun laws" argument doesn't it?

Are you the type of person who thinks the only guns are military guns. The gun laws you are suggesting elimnated 2 calibers and maybe a dozen types of guns of HUNDREDS. The laws were lax current standards. Also note that criminals by and large DO NOT OBEY LAWS.

Of course there is other factors. The term "going postal" didn't even exist until the 90s. However enough people have gained enough fame now that sick people know they will be read about on the other side of the world immediately after their final acts. There are other factors we can't do that much about, but we can do something about the availability of weaponry. In Australia it certainly appears to have made a difference.

The availability of legal weaponry has NEVER had an impact on their use in crime. Wheter or not a M-16 is legal criminals will still acquire one and use it. The fact that so far no shooting spree has happened in 10 years is coincidence just like the 13 in 15 years. there was a law against murder the whole time and there were people being killed all along.

Well your argument here is flawed for reasons stated above.

Actually my argument is perfect your's is just inanely stupid. I said lax gun laws and you have even pointed out they are relaitvely lax.

Regarding the planning, if a person is eager enough they will be able to get a weapon. Reducing the number of guns in the community, and the power of these weapons makes it harder for them though. You are not going to stop all of them but you will catch or impede some of them.

You are going to stop none of them and all you end up doing is disarming a populace and making it unable to defend itself. thus you are robbing the law-abiding people the fundamental right to defend themselves.

Do you lock you house up when you go out? Why? Any burgler who really wants to get in will. You make it as difficult as possible.

I lock it to keep the honest people out. I have alarms to catch the crooks and guns to get the intruders who dare come while i am still there.

However outlawing crack coacine has done NOTHING to amke it more difficult to get. Same goes with guns. In fact not having stores with their markup makes those balckmarket 100 dollar ak-47 damn attractive.
 
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