Republicans In crisis and a Nation and a Democracy on the Sacrificial Alter

[joepistole]

Yeah shit is going to hit the fan. It appears Republicans are not going to pass a clean government funding bill. And it seems the party is hell bent on destroying itself and the country. They can only live in that Republican echo chamber so long before reality takes a big bite out of their asses.

 

[Billy T]

Does a "Shut Down government," mean the Fed does a 100% taper? I.e. the tiger Fed has by the tail is fully freed?
Or can Fed still crank out "thin-air" money?

 

[joepistole]

Does a "Shut Down government," mean the Fed does a 100% taper? I.e. the tiger Fed has by the tail is fully freed?
Or can Fed still crank out "thin-air" money?

The Fed is not germane to a government shutdown or a discussion of same.

 

[Billy T]

The Fed is not germane to a government shutdown or a discussion of same.

I did not say or imply it was, but government shut down may be very germane to the Fed's QE infinity. That was what I asked about. I think the Fed is not technically part of the government and can "print" any money it needs. Although someone might take them to court (assuming it is not shut down) with the claim they are borrowing from future generations.

If you can answer any of my questions, please do so, but don't put words in my mouth I never said or implied.

 

[joepistole]

I did not say or imply it was, but government shut down may be very germane to the Fed's QE infinity. That was what I asked about. I think the Fed is not technically part of the government and can "print" any money it needs. Although someone might take them to court (assuming it is not shut down) with the claim they are borrowing from future generations.

If you can answer any of my questions, please do so, but don't put words in my mouth I never said or implied.

If you want to discuss the Fed, please start a thread in your forum.

 

[joepistole]

Apparently Republicans are befuddled. They have been spending too much time in their echo chambers. Reality is about to take a big bite out of their butts. They haven’t yet realized the political ambiance in Washington has changed. They are no longer dealing with a naïve and politically timid first term POTUS. They are no longer dealing with a Democratic Party that would run for shelter at the slightest hint of trouble. Things have changed in Washington.

Democrats are standing their ground. This is not going to end well for Republicans or the nation. Republicans are going to have to explain why they are not funding the government and why they may eventually cause the government to default. How long will it take Republicans to wake up to the new reality? Democrats are no longer running. They are standing their ground. I am sure in the days ahead we are going to be on the receiving end of the shit load of lies which Republicans have traditionally dumped on us in attempts to justify the unjustifiable. But at the end of the day, shit is still shit and it will still stink. Eventually someone, a lot of people are going to notice and that will be an ugly day for Republicans.

 

[ElectricFetus]

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-09-27/why-im-rooting-for-a-government-shutdown

It should be pointed out that if the goverment shuts down that has nothing to do with default, which is like two weeks later, default is a whole different fight.

 

[Tiassa]

Boehner, Boned

It should be pointed out that if the goverment shuts down that has nothing to do with default, which is like two weeks later, default is a whole different fight.

It is worth noting that there is a compelling thesis hoping that a government shutdown will sort of get this poison out of their systems long enough to get through the debt ceiling, because, well, that is a much, much worse fight to drag out.

A shutdown, after all, is just bad for the economy. A default is catastrophic for it. You'd have to be insanely reckless to permit the federal government to default on its debts. And Boehner believes that House Republicans are insanely reckless and that President Obama isn't ....

.... Moving the one-year delay of Obamacare to the CR maximizes the chances of a shutdown but makes a default at least somewhat less likely. If a shutdown begins Monday night, Republicans and Democrats will have more than two weeks to resolve it before hitting the debt ceiling.

As Alec Phillips put it in a research note for Goldman Sachs, "If a shutdown is avoided, it is likely to be because congressional Republicans have opted to wait and push for policy concessions on the debt limit instead. By contrast, if a shutdown occurs, we would be surprised if congressional Republicans would want to risk another difficult situation only a couple of weeks later. The upshot is that while a shutdown would be unnecessarily disruptive, it might actually ease passage of a debt limit increase."

One way a shutdown makes the passage of a debt limit increase easier is that it can persuade outside actors to come off the sidelines and begin pressuring the Republican Party to cut a deal. One problem in the politics of the fiscal fight so far is that business leaders, Wall Street, voters and even many pundits have been assuming that Republicans and Democrats will argue and carp and complain but work all this out before the government closes down or defaults. A shutdown will prove that comforting notion wrong, and those groups will begin exerting real political pressure to force a resolution before a default happens.

(Klein)​

This, of course, is excluding the explicitly preferred outcome, "if there was no shutdown and no default and House Republicans stopped trying to enact an agenda that lost at the polls by threatening the country". But that's the thing. Klein's thesis presumes "real political pressure" would have a useful effect on a caucus that may be insanely reckless in its determination to accomplish its agenda. Well, how insane is insanely reckless? Isn't that sort of like the glowering mysterium? The Doomsday Oracle of Absurdity? My daughter's loathsome Magic Date Ball might be as reliable as any properly skilled punditry on that question. It's the all-the-money-in-the-world question.

As with your article from Green. The vital variable, the make or break multiplier is the positive or negative value of the effect of ... well, in Green's case, I'm not certain what the device is. He seems to treat shutdown and default as an either/or proposition. There is absolutely no reason why we should presume House Republicans, having accomplished a shutdown with their CR fight, would not proceed to attempt a default standoff. And in trying to find that device, we run into the same problem Klein faces. Real political pressure, as such, might only make things worse. Remember how much of this range of the right wing has a victim complex. As those outside actors get involved, who would really want to wager that this faction wouldn't cry persecution and rally their base? If it was all of five bucks one way or another, sure. But there's a bigger stake that you or I can't cover, so ... right.

Maybe the ghost variable, the invisible hand, is John Boehner. Some part of him must know that his entire political legacy is at risk. I mean, sure, I might be rather quite critical of the (ahem!) Speaker In Name Only, but he ain't dead yet. Whether he is the worst Speaker ever is at least arguable, but by no means conclusive. If his House of Representatives pushes this country into default, it might be a century before the Republicans get the keys back, and it will all be on him. He won't just be the worst Speaker ever; he will be infamous in political history. Even setting aside his own ego, such an assessment conveys the magnitude of the challenge before him.

Will House Republicans breach the hull of the ship of state? Are they prepared to attempt to destroy the Republic in order to prove that government doesn't work? How ... crazy ... are ... they ...?

Do we really want to find out?

That is the challenge facing Speaker Boehner.
____________________

Notes:

Klein, Ezra. "The House GOP's shutdown plan is great news". Wonkblog. September 28, 2013. WashingtonPost.com. September 29, 2013. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...8/the-house-gops-shutdown-plan-is-great-news/

 

[Billy T]

Bloomberg post an hour ago:

The House measure would delay a requirement for people to purchase coverage or face a penalty, and postpone the creation of marketplaces -- which are supposed to start functioning this Oct. 1 -- where people could shop for coverage from private insurers. Further, it would repeal the 2.3 percent medical device tax, which would increase the U.S. deficit by about $29 billion during the next decade. The latest House bill would leave intact some parts of the health-care law already in effect, such as requirements insurance companies cover people with pre-existing conditions and that family plans cover children up to age 26. The latest bill would allow insurers to deny abortion coverage based on religious or moral objections.

The final chance to avert a shutdown could come tomorrow evening, if the Senate turns down the latest House plan, as Democrats promise to do. At that point, House Speaker John Boehner would have four main choices -- two of which avert a shutdown. He could pass the Senate bill with mostly Democratic votes or attempt a short-term funding extension to keep the government open past Oct. 1, when fiscal year 2014 begins. The other two options lead to a shutdown. Boehner could add Obamacare provisions to the spending bill and ask the Senate to go along, which Senate Democratic leaders have said they would reject, or do nothing and wait to see the political fallout.

I bet on option 4 - do nothing, except give PR speech about only delaying the costs for year to help the economy recover jobs, etc.

 

[ElectricFetus]

On the question of how insane the tea party wing of republicans could get, remember these people, thanks to the modern internet age, live in an enclosed information bubble where what they do is righteous and everyone, the majority of Americans agree. I don't think that mindset will break with ease, its like a cult and it could possible go so far that long after default as massive riots build up in Washington rioters would need to raid the house and bash the skulls in of every house member before they relies the realty of what they have done, sort of david koresh inverted.

Short of that there is bribery, I think as default looms after shutdown that yes the market place will start to have a say as businessmen start taking tea party house members out to diner asking ever so nicely that if they would not default the USA they could expect to see massive re-election funding.

Personally the insanity of this whole thing is beyond me. Imagine a person goes up to their boss with a gun in their right hand and a baby in the other and demands a raise or else he will shoot the baby, what is the boss to do? Would the boss be wrong to deny a raise? Clearly the employee is beyond reason or sanity if he thinks the baby's death is the boss's fault, yet here we are with house republicans blaming the president and the democrats for this!

 

[joepistole]

Some pearls of wisdom for Republicans from a fellow Republican, George Will.

“Since 1995, the burgeoning of conservative journalism, talk radio, the Internet and social media has changed everything.

Well. Those people who are best at deceiving others first deceive themselves. They often do so by allowing their wishes to be the fathers of their thoughts, and begin by wishing that everything has changed.

If the ACA is, as conservatives believe, as unpleasant in potential effects as it is impossible to implement, conservatives should allow what Lincoln called “the silent artillery of time” to destroy it.” – Washington Post, George Will

http://articles.washingtonpost.com/...barack-obama-obama-administration-republicans

 

[joepistole]

It is worth noting that there is a compelling thesis hoping that a government shutdown will sort of get this poison out of their systems long enough to get through the debt ceiling, because, well, that is a much, much worse fight to drag out.

I agree with Ezra Klein. I usually do. This is unfortunate but it may help avert a government default which would be much more damaging. Republicans are demanding their drama and they are getting it. This is what happens when political decision making and policy becomes a byproduct of the Republican entertainment complex. Drama, hate, fears and crises sells, truth and rational behavior, not so much. And that is an unfortunate fact for the nation and it is the etiology of our political and economic ills.

Contrary to popular opinion, I think this shutdown may last more than just a few hours. I would not be surprised to see it last right up to the debt ceiling. Republicans will need to suffer some serious damage before they pass a viable spending bill.

 

[Tiassa]

Clear and Present Danger

Clear and Present Danger

The only thing that makes the process complicated, in this case, is human will. And while there is certainly a sound case to be made that this is hardly a unique situation, the truth is that it was easy enough.

​

Everything went well enough, until we had to rely on the House to do its part.

House Republicans not only gathered on a weekend to take a vote that moves the government even closer to a shutdown, they did it in the dead of night.

The Republican-controlled House voted around midnight on Saturday to keep the government open for a few more months in exchange for punting the rollout of Obamacare for a year — the kind of shot at the health care law conservatives had wanted for weeks, even if it’s sure to be rejected by the Democratic-controlled Senate.

The decision makes nearly inevitable a government shutdown on Oct. 1, not only leaving nearly a 800,000 federal workers at risk for furloughs but jeopardizing the fragile economic recovery. On the same day, Americans will still be able to begin signing up for health insurance through new government exchanges created by the health care law Republicans were hoping to defund.

Still, conservatives savored what they saw as a victory Saturday afternoon—cheering and applauding loudly enough to be heard through closed doors during a conference meeting in the Capitol.

Rep. John Culberson of Texas told MSNBC Saturday of the decision to take a shot a at Obamacare: ”I said, like 9/11, 'let's roll!'“

(Clark)​

It is worth noting that on the shutdown menu is a consicence clause: Unless Obama agrees that employers should be able to interfere with the relationships of doctors and the employees on the health plan, we'll shut down the government.

No, really. That was from Kansas Republican Rep. Tim Huelskamp.

But, seriously, this is the lesson. Trying to avert a government shutdown when dealing with people determined to prove their thesis that government doesn't work is an exercise in futility.

I think the great irony is that a number of seemingly unrelated oddities suddenly make sense. Think about how conservatives always shout that health care or marriage equality or whatever will destroy America. It's a ruse, obviously. A sleight. There is no longer any room for question that conservatives and other sympathizers to the Republican Party are actively conspiring to destroy the United States of America.

Republicans and conservatives have announced themselves a clear and present danger to the United States of America.
____________________

Notes:

Yourish, Karen. "What Congress Must Do to Avoid a Shutdown". The New York Times. September 24, 2013. NYTimes.com. September 29, 2013. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...hat-congress-must-do-to-avoid-a-shutdown.html

Clark, Meredith. "Shutdown stalemate". MSNBC. September 29, 2013. TV.MSNBC.com. September 29, 2013. http://tv.msnbc.com/2013/09/29/shutdown-stalemate/

 

[Tiassa]

The Question Remains

Post-Policy Politicking

Like this wasn't predictable:

Twenty conservative House Republicans assembled in front of the locked Senate doors Sunday to slam Democratic obstructionism as the federal government hurtles towards a shutdown.

Trading in colorful metaphors just hours after sending a spending bill to the Senate, the conservative group, led by Republican Conference Chairwoman Cathy McMorris-Rodgers (R-Wash.), accused Democrats of refusing to negotiate. The Senate and President Obama have vowed to reject the Republican's effort to delay the president's healthcare law by one year.

“I urge the Senate to come back,” second-term Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Ohio) said to shouts of "Amen."

“I'm glad now to invite to the microphone the distinguished majority leader in the Senate, Harry Reid,” he added to loud laughs from his colleagues. “Oh, I'm sorry, Harry's not here today. Maybe he'll show up later.”

Football in hand, Rep. Tim Griffin (R-Ark.) accused Democrats of deliberately “running out the clock.” He claimed to have been told by “high-level Democrats in town” that their plan has long been to force a government shutdown and blame it on Republicans.

“This is the old football strategy: when you get to where you want to be in a football game, you run out the clock, because you think you like where you are,” he said. “That's exactly what's going on here. If they really cared if this government shutdown would shut down or not, they'd be here.”

Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-Texas) accused Democrats of taking a “lazy break until 2 o'clock on Monday.”

(Pecquet and Hooper)​

There is, indeed, a certain kernel of truth: Harry Reid has, indeed, adjourned the Senate until two o'clock Monday.

House Republicans approved a stopgap spending bill that delays ObamaCare in an early-morning Sunday vote that increases the chances of a government shutdown.

The high-stakes GOP move intensifies a game of chicken with Senate Democrats with just 48 hours to go before the lights could go out on the federal government.

The White House threatened to veto the measure, while Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) proclaimed it dead in the upper chamber ....

.... The bill now moves back to the Senate, where Reid is expected to scrap the two healthcare amendments with a single vote on Monday, when the Senate returns, and return the "clean" CR, yet again, to Boehner and House Republicans.

“To be absolutely clear, the Senate will reject both the one-year delay of the Affordable Care Act and the repeal of the medical device tax,” Reid said in a statement. “After weeks of futile political games from Republicans, we are still at square one: Republicans must decide whether to pass the Senate's clean CR, or force a Republican government shutdown.”

That move could potentially come just hours before the Tuesday shutdown.

(Lillis)​

The thing is that Republicans are determined to use the very function of government for leverage; they are apparently willing, or so we hear, to use the full faith and credit of the United States as a lever. And for what? Their demand is essentially that the nation enact the political platform rejected at the ballot box last November.

The strategy is to begin by demanding everything they want, so that when they “compromise” to merely destroying Obamacare, it seems reasonable. But two aspects of this approach are immediately striking. The first is its tactical wisdom. John Boehner seems to believe that the way out of the shutdown problem is to make extravagant promises for the debt ceiling crisis, which is a much more dire threat, and on which Obama has committed himself not to negotiate. Why would making more extensive promises make this easier for Boehner in the end? Won't it make conservatives that much angrier when he ultimately has to give up the things he promised?

The second point is a normative one. The fact that a major party could even propose anything like this is a display of astonishing contempt for democratic norms. Republicans ran on this plan and lost by 5 million votes. They also lost the Senate and received a million fewer votes in the House but held control owing to favorable district lines. Is there an example in American history of a losing party issuing threats to force the majority party to implement its rejected agenda?

(Chait)​

Republicans are showing a fairly unique and contemptible cynicism, here. In the end, the question remains: Imagine Republicans succeed to any particular degree. Is this how we want things to go?
____________________

Notes:

Pecquet, Julian and Molly K. Hooper. "House Republicans say Dems trying to run out clock on government shutdown". The Hill. September 29, 2013. TheHill.com. September 29, 2013. http://thehill.com/homenews/news/32...-say-dems-trying-to-run-out-clock-on-shutdown

Lillis, Mike. "House sends stopgap back to Senate 48 hours before shutdown". The Hill. September 29, 2013. TheHill.com. September 29, 2013. http://thehill.com/homenews/house/325331-house-sends-stopgap-back-before-senate-48-hours-to-shutdown

Chait, Jonathan. "House Republicans Issue Ransom Demand: Implement Romney Plan or the Economy Gets It". Daily Intelligencer. September 26, 2013. NYMag.com. September 29, 2013. http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/09/republican-ransom-demand-implement-romney-plan.html

 

[greenboy]

American Socialism

Two out of three guys younger than 25 years old are not working, they are taking disability, or some king of assistance. This is all around the country, we can not keep this up. So we are getting to collapse as a society..

 

[Billy T]

... Like this wasn't predictable ...

Probably not targeted at my 7 year old predicition of a run on the dollar "on or before Halloween 2014" with worst ever depression to soon follow for US & EU but only at worst a couple of years of recession in China and its supplies, like Brazil, et. al. (and that includes the fertile Mid West farms - why clear thinking Soros & Gates have moved billions of their funds into buying there.)

So just to be sure: I note I have always said it is impossible to forecast the path that will be taken to the "run on the Dollar." House Republicans may (or may not) be a way station of the path to that destination, which GWB made certain. I can't get too excited about what path gets the US to its inevitable destination or the precise date of arrival there.

 

[joepistole]

Two out of three guys younger than 25 years old are not working, they are taking disability, or some king of assistance. This is all around the country, we can not keep this up. So we are getting to collapse as a society..

Oh, and where is your proof? Where is your BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) data that supports that claim? Let me guess, you don't have any. You are just repeating mindless right wind drivel you picked up somewhere on the web, conservative email chain, or right wing entertainment.

Most people under 25 are in school, in public school which is where they are supposed to be. So you think students are not working and advantaging themselves of the evils of socialism?

 

[ElectricFetus]

Two out of three guys younger than 25 years old are not working, they are taking disability, or some king of assistance. This is all around the country, we can not keep this up. So we are getting to collapse as a society..

Even if this was true, how do we fix it? Stop covering them?, Do you think jobs would magically form for these people if kicked to the curb despite competition from overseas sweetshop/pseudo-slave labor and every growing automation and mechanized labor which could one day make all human labor obsolete?

 

[Tiassa]

Comprehension Should Not Be an Important Factor

Narrative and Scope

Here's the thing about partisan narratives: When you make it easy for the other side, there's probably merit to the narrative.

That is to say:

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) appeared on "Face the Nation" yesterday and made clear that he's confused about the federal budget process. Noting that the House and Senate have passed competing spending measures intended to keep the government's lights on, the Republican senator asked, "Why don't we have a conference committee on this?"

It fell to Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) to patiently try to explain the details Rand Paul must have missed: "We've been trying for more than six months to get Republicans to approve a conference committee on the budget."

I mention this exchange because I imagine there are quite a few Americans wondering how in the world we ended up, once again, with the prospect of an imminent government shutdown. It's worth taking a moment to remember that this crisis isn't an accident—congressional Republicans created it on purpose several months ago.

In the early spring, both the House and Senate approved competing budget resolutions, and under the American system of government, both sides were supposed to go to a conference committee to hash out the differences ....

.... If the House and Senate had gone to a conference committee back in the spring to work out their budget differences, Republicans would have been expected to compromise to reach a broader agreement—but Republicans don't want to compromise.

So they decided to abandon the budget process they themselves had asked for so they could do precisely what they're doing now—use extortion instead of compromise to try to get what they want.

(Benen)​

I mean, sure, there's a lot in that. But as any sports fan with a clue is aware, the whole bit about which players and coaches suck is a bit hyperbolic; after all, these athletes have made it to the premier league in their sport.

To the other, though, the same does not seem to hold in politics.

Samajima Mamimi: Legs spread, same width as the shoulders, body tight; then hit the ball like you're defeating the enemy. Here, the pinky finger is the key. And then you just hit, hit, hit—kakin ... bingo!

Nandaba Naota: What are you talking about?

Mamimi: He who conquers the left side conquers the world, Chief. Setting the parameters. That's really the hard part.

Naota: You talking about a video game?

Mamimi: Hmm? Takkun, what are you doing.

Naota: Homework.

Mamimi: Then why don't you do it at home?

Naota: It's not cool.

Mamimi: You could do my homework too, if you want, huh?

Naota: Hmm? Your hands are upside-down.

Mamimi: Hmm? Oh! You should play baseball, too, Takkun. Why do you always carry around a bat?

Naota: Why do you always hang around here by the river?

Mamimi: Because, you know. Huh? Now, why was it?

(FLCL)​

​

Remember that Mitt Romney's presidential-caliber team somehow made it into election night without having a clue what was actually happening. But it's hard to tell whether Benen's cynicism is on target—"Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) ... made clear that he's confused about the federal budget process"—or the Republican rhetoric really does presume that sort of sleight is smart enough to slip through unnoticed. It's kind of like flipping a coin; heads and you're insulted that Rand Paul and other conservatives think people are that stupid, or tails and you're suddenly distressed that Rand Paul and other conservatives might actually be so ignorant.

I imagine there are quite a few Americans waking up this morning thinking, "Wait, the government is about to shut down?" What they don't appreciate is the fact that GOP lawmakers always intended for this to happen, and set this plan in motion months ago.

(Benen)​

____________________

Notes:

Benen, Steve. "How Congress reached this point". The Maddow Blog. September, 30, 2013. MaddowBlog.MSNBC.com. September 30, 2013. http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2013/09/30/20756914-how-congress-reached-this-point

"FLCL". FLCL: The Complete Series. Writ. Yōji Enokido. Trans. Marc Handler. Dir. Kazuya Tsurumaki. Funimation, 2011. DVD.

 

[wellwisher]

I imagine there are quite a few Americans waking up this morning thinking, "Wait, the government is about to shut down?" What they don't appreciate is the fact that GOP lawmakers always intended for this to happen, and set this plan in motion months ago.

One problem with this process is the democrats will not submit a budget, and have not done so in 4 years. The president is supposed to lead and not just let others do the work and then complain. It could be laziness, fear of exposing waste or incompetence. This breaks the law since the Constitution requires a budget. But when you surround yourself with yes men they may not have a brain for math between them.

I like the idea of shutting down the government and then restarting it, based on what the majority of citizens miss the most. It is supposed to be a government by the people for the people. It would be like starting up say a power grid for the first time, beginning at the core and then gradually adding things sectors until the entire grid is up and running. I would start each aspect of the start-up with a Spartan staff of managers and experts. The fat will stand out and then we can trim.