Doubtful as china is starting to slow too anyway. Australia didn't suffer from the GFC because it was protected by china but now we are seeing investment falling here because china is slowing so unless something radically changed in china itself they would continue to slow because they wouldn't be selling to the US and EU
Republicans In crisis and a Nation and a Democracy on the Sacrificial Alter
- Thread starter joepistole
- Start date
Doubtful as china is starting to slow too anyway. Australia didn't suffer from the GFC because it was protected by china but now we are seeing investment falling here because china is slowing so unless something radically changed in china itself they would continue to slow because they wouldn't be selling to the US and EU
No no Billy has the impression the Han are a hive mind race with complete intent to fuck over the USA and enslave the rest of the world and that physical reality or individual greed can't get in the way of their progress towards global domination.
Yes, decades of double digit GDP growth must slow as national economy leaves it earlier smaller base behind. China's GDP growth is now only 4 to 5 times faster than the US's but if only items I call "enduring" are counted, instead of tickets sold to NFL football games, etc. China's "enduring GDP" is growing 10 to 25 times faster than the US's is.
True, some of those "enduring investments" are not yet productively used. For example a dozen or so empty new cities, but you need to realize that China must build the equivalent of ALL the US housing, sanitation systems, grocery stores, shopping malls, etc. in the next decade as half (or more than half) a billion people leave their farms to be come urbanites.
Examples of enduring GDP investments:
For scale, note the large earth mover at edge, bottom center.
Eastern and central parts will be operational in 2014 after more than a decade of intense construction and testing. The Nile flow is just over 80 cubic kilometers per year. (reference at: http://www.google.com/#fp=b1848aaff8...+of+nile+river) and a cubic Km is 1000^3 cubic meters, or Nile moves 80 billion cubic meters vs. China is moving 44.8 billion cubic meters. I.e. the Nile moves less than twice as much water as China will but the Nile moves its water slightly more than twice a far. No other man-made water project come even close (not even within 3%) to what China has done to improve the economic health of the nation as world moves into the era of water shortages! China's "half Nile" does a trick nature's Nile can't do: It delivers water to the Beijing area 45 meters higher than its source! (2.8 billion kWh/year pumping energy) China started funding studies for this world's largest water project in 1950!
In contrast, Lake Powell and Lake Mead suppliers of much of the water needed by S. W. USA are going dry. China could do these "enduring investment" things and many others because the CCP leaders are educated as engineers, with a few geologists and economists, but not one lawyer in it, unlike US's government's highest levels where 90+% were trained as lawyers. Plus their term is 10 years with most re appointed, so can fund needed projects with first benefits several decades later as not mainly thinking of the next election, 2 or 4 years away.
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No. Chinese are not intent on fucking the US over; however, they do want to enjoy the benefit the US has had for decades of paying for their imports with printed paper. I.e. Yes they want the RMB to first be part of the IMF's Special Drawing Rights "currency" and ultimately, when US and EU are in deep depression,* the world's main reserve currency, which I am almost certain will be achieved when they want to see dollar collapse (if it has not already) by issue of gold backed RMB bonds, paying higher interest than the US can afford.
As far as "global domination" is concerned, yes they expect that to come too, when they are economically dominate, but have no intent of achieving or keeping that via military power as bankrupt US does. You can see this in the difference of how their GPS is designed. It can not precisely guide cruse missiles to targets on the other side of the world. It only covers China, the S. China Sea (all the way the north and east over Japan and both Koreas) plus the ocean East of Vietnam and most of Vietnam. True its satellites circle the globe, but they don't have precise clocks in them. Instead precise time is kept in the system's ground stations in China. I.e. by design, it is for defense only, not global aggression.
* In the long run, it makes little difference what is the final straw that breaks the US camel's back. In fact it may be of more benefit if the Tea Party is the trigger of a run on the dollar instead of the "bond vigilantes." That would go a long way to riding the country of the party dedicated to serving the already rich. The "big tent" of the democrats can easily split to keep a "two party" system.
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How do you know when you become a fanatic? Well when ideology is correct even when it doesn't work, well you might just be a fanatic.
This is the problem that vexes our nation. Republicans want a reward for holding the nation hostage to their demands. Democrats refuse to reward Republicans for hostage taking.
Republicans like to argue that their hostage taking is just normal business. And it is not. Until 2011 the discussion was always about the debt ceiling. In 2011 the threat changed from debt ceiling to default. Prior to 2011 no party had threatened to put the nation into default. Tea Partiers are denying the country will default if the debt ceiling is not raised, in spite of the massive evidence to the contrary.
This is the problem that vexes our nation. Republicans want a reward for holding the nation hostage to their demands. Democrats refuse to reward Republicans for hostage taking.
Republicans like to argue that their hostage taking is just normal business. And it is not. Until 2011 the discussion was always about the debt ceiling. In 2011 the threat changed from debt ceiling to default. Prior to 2011 no party had threatened to put the nation into default. Tea Partiers are denying the country will default if the debt ceiling is not raised, in spite of the massive evidence to the contrary.
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Or they could just wait! It only a matter of time before china is the world's largest economy and enjoys a high median standard of living, why risk global depression (including for china) by trying the rush the inevitable? China can slowly over the next few decades get the world to buy into the Yuan over the dollar, and by doing so at slow and steady rate, not collapse the world and its self.
Or you can just look at how their defense budget as grown, their purchase of aircraft carriers, etc, to see that they also have 'Hawks' and a corrupt military industrial complex that wants money and power.
I sort of agree, I just don't think it is garenteed the USA will have a 'sudden' decline.
To be on thread I note that if US military spending were reduced by 75% the deficit and budget problems would be solved and US still would spend more than any other country on defense! Plus its existing equipment is by far the world's most technically capable. The US's Industrial Military Complex eats up slightly more than 20% of ALL US government spending.
BRIEF SUMMARY: The US military is NOT defending the US - It is destroying the US!
Note China's GDP is slightly less than half that of the US's so if compared to US GDP, China spends ~0.5% of that on defense. Also note China has world's largest standing army that has value only for defense (or helping after earthquakes and floods, etc.) - that is the Chinese MIC's main cost / funding. Like their GPS design, which can not guide hostile missiles far from China, That is evidence of the defensive nature / goals / of their military. The US's GPS was designed by the military to be able to send a cruse missile thru ANY selected window on the other side of the world.
* China is building a "blue water" navy now, including air craft carriers as they have invested about half a trillion dollars in PAID UP FRONT,** future delivery (over up to 30 years) purchases of oil, minerals, timber, food stocks (including outright buying of farm land when they could plus large food processors, like world's largest pork seller, Smith Field hams, which, not too surprisingly announced yesterday that they were stopping to add something to the pig food that makes the meat leaner as they will export more to China, were the fatter the pig is the higher price per pound the customer will pay.) China probably will not need to overfly US or Brazil with fighter bombers to make sure those government deliver as contracted, but may need to do that with what ever regime in several African nations is thinking about welching on the delivers. - Why China will have five aircraft carriers by ~2020.
** China was smart and expected the dollar to crash, as I have, so they converted that half trillion of dollar assets into purchases of real value (not paper promise) items.
The contract with Brazil's PetroBras was an earlier significant one: China paid 10 billion dollars for the promise of 200,000 barrels of oil delivered every day (on average) for 20 years.
Because of sanctions on Iran, China is paying for many (I don't know details) years of oil by building two of the world's largest and most modern oil refineries there. Oil rich Iran has none. Must import every drop of gasoline and other refined products, now. This is a very good deal for both Iran and China, regardless of the details, but knowing how China "bargains," especially with Iran over a US made economic barrel, I sure much more so for China
It is rather ironic that the main benefits of US blood and treasure spent in the Mid East Gulf region is resulting in benefits for Iran and China. Just as I predicted before GWB invaded Iraq - the Shiite government there is already the "Northern Provence" of Iran as I forecast, but my forecast that NE Iraq would be come "Kirdistan" causing great trouble for US / Nato ally Turkey is not yet fully fulfilled.
BRIEF SUMMARY: The US military is NOT defending the US - It is destroying the US!
If China can enjoy great benefit of paying for imports with printed paper, as US was able to do for more than two decades, why wait three decade more to do so?
Yes growing but still a small fraction of the US Military Industrial Complex, MIC, funding. US's MIC rakes in more than the total of China and the next 15 largest spenders on defense.
* China is building a "blue water" navy now, including air craft carriers as they have invested about half a trillion dollars in PAID UP FRONT,** future delivery (over up to 30 years) purchases of oil, minerals, timber, food stocks (including outright buying of farm land when they could plus large food processors, like world's largest pork seller, Smith Field hams, which, not too surprisingly announced yesterday that they were stopping to add something to the pig food that makes the meat leaner as they will export more to China, were the fatter the pig is the higher price per pound the customer will pay.) China probably will not need to overfly US or Brazil with fighter bombers to make sure those government deliver as contracted, but may need to do that with what ever regime in several African nations is thinking about welching on the delivers. - Why China will have five aircraft carriers by ~2020.
** China was smart and expected the dollar to crash, as I have, so they converted that half trillion of dollar assets into purchases of real value (not paper promise) items.
The contract with Brazil's PetroBras was an earlier significant one: China paid 10 billion dollars for the promise of 200,000 barrels of oil delivered every day (on average) for 20 years.
Because of sanctions on Iran, China is paying for many (I don't know details) years of oil by building two of the world's largest and most modern oil refineries there. Oil rich Iran has none. Must import every drop of gasoline and other refined products, now. This is a very good deal for both Iran and China, regardless of the details, but knowing how China "bargains," especially with Iran over a US made economic barrel, I sure much more so for China
It is rather ironic that the main benefits of US blood and treasure spent in the Mid East Gulf region is resulting in benefits for Iran and China. Just as I predicted before GWB invaded Iraq - the Shiite government there is already the "Northern Provence" of Iran as I forecast, but my forecast that NE Iraq would be come "Kirdistan" causing great trouble for US / Nato ally Turkey is not yet fully fulfilled.
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Well we are down to the wire...drum roll please. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t925JwYXhVA
Adding to the absurdity, Tea Party Ted (AKA Canadian Ted) and his mentor Sarah Palin protested the closing of the WWII War Memorial which they caused when they defunded the government.
http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2013/10/13/sen-ted-cruz-joins-protest-at-wwii-memorial-in-washington/
https://www.teaparty.org/cruz-palin-join-protesters-at-wwii-memorial-29500/
http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2013/10/13/sen-ted-cruz-joins-protest-at-wwii-memorial-in-washington/
https://www.teaparty.org/cruz-palin-join-protesters-at-wwii-memorial-29500/
If Republicans are successful in driving the country into default, they will have succeeded where al-Qaeda failed. Republicans would cause more damage to the US than even al-Qaeda could have dreamed of.
Don't Blame Canada: Conservatism is a Part of Nature
I honestly wonder, sometimes, if our conservative at Sciforums are actually conservatives or bumbling liberal provocateurs who can't write proper conservative arguments. This point occurs to me at present because I am enjoying, far too much, an apt metaphor.
We can watch Americans go through fits with life and death when the issue is quite literally life and death; an example would be assisted suicide. Setting aside the usual jokes about states-rights conservatives trying to use the federal government to block Oregon's assisted suicide laws, we might recall the grave fears about scheming relatives who would give disingenuous medical advice to their grandmothers, or whatever. And, yes, as an Oregon liberal, I would note we raised voter coercion concerns when the state went to vote-by-mail; I was so wrong about that outcome that when I moved to my current address in Washington, yes, I fondly recall the chocolate chip cookie squares and rice crispy bars at the local polling site in the Fremont neighborhood of Seattle, but up here in Snohomish County, I was quite happy to slip back into the vote-by-mail arrangement, and even went so far as to regale everyone in my association who doesn't live in the county with the tale of my voter registration being approved by Bob Terwilliger.
Cartoon jokes aside, 'tis true I digress.
Assisted suicide:
Meanwhile, the patient is alive and kicking, and has no kind words for those hoping Republicans get away with its murder.
Carcano said:
I honestly wonder, sometimes, if our conservative at Sciforums are actually conservatives or bumbling liberal provocateurs who can't write proper conservative arguments. This point occurs to me at present because I am enjoying, far too much, an apt metaphor.
We can watch Americans go through fits with life and death when the issue is quite literally life and death; an example would be assisted suicide. Setting aside the usual jokes about states-rights conservatives trying to use the federal government to block Oregon's assisted suicide laws, we might recall the grave fears about scheming relatives who would give disingenuous medical advice to their grandmothers, or whatever. And, yes, as an Oregon liberal, I would note we raised voter coercion concerns when the state went to vote-by-mail; I was so wrong about that outcome that when I moved to my current address in Washington, yes, I fondly recall the chocolate chip cookie squares and rice crispy bars at the local polling site in the Fremont neighborhood of Seattle, but up here in Snohomish County, I was quite happy to slip back into the vote-by-mail arrangement, and even went so far as to regale everyone in my association who doesn't live in the county with the tale of my voter registration being approved by Bob Terwilliger.
Cartoon jokes aside, 'tis true I digress.
Assisted suicide:
• Some believe the U.S. is fatally sick ("inevitable trajectory").
• Some hope to profit by the demise of the United States of America ("my investments would profit from a US default").
• No wonder those people are advocating assisted suicide.
• Some hope to profit by the demise of the United States of America ("my investments would profit from a US default").
• No wonder those people are advocating assisted suicide.
Meanwhile, the patient is alive and kicking, and has no kind words for those hoping Republicans get away with its murder.
Yes, GWB's acts and lack of SEC enforcement, etc. assisted me to join that group more than 6 years ago, but I want all to call the coming depression in US & EU: "GWB's depressions" not Obama's as they probably will.
It is easy, too easy, to blame the right wing Republicans, when they just pay for TV ads that exploit the ignorance, locally funded poor neighborhood schools produce. Think more deeply what the problem is.
A well educated population like Scandinavian countries produce with federal funding of schools is not so easily led to vote against their own long-term self interest by negative ads and mis-leading TV sound bites.
The person who wrote that isn’t knowledgeable enough or sophisticated enough to profit from a US default. He thinks he will profit, but that belief is attributable to ignorance and is not a realistic expectation. Should the US actually default, he will be in for a surprise. In a depression all prices, with the exception of a few derivative securities, fall. That is why it’s called a depression, prices become depressed.
And that brings us to another cause of our current woes, misinformation and ignorance. When these people hurt themselves as they inevitably will, they will blame everyone but the person who is really at fault...themselves.
Billy T said:
Because doing so now would risk damaging china's own economy greatly! Of course if the US defaults the damage would be done, dropping the USA at that point would be a more logical.
So? The question is what will it be, not what it is now! The trend is growth. Will china's military complex be as large and burdensome as the USA presently when china becomes the world largest economy? This all depends on how much progress jingoistic paranoid xenophobes make in the Chinese government over the next decades. So far they have increase military operations in the Eastern oceans and sea to demand control over open oceans.
kmguru
Staff member
al-Qaeda = Middle-East oil...so it is the same group between TP and AQ, one is very big and the other one is very small...
Well it is certainly sad and a bit ironic that the Republican Party, if successful its efforts to drive the country into default, will have accomplished what al-Qaeda attempted but failed to do.
"In China, Xinhua, the official government news agency, said that as American politicians continued to flounder over a deal to break the impasse, “it is perhaps a good time for the befuddled world to start considering building a de-Americanised world”
If America defaults China will likely have to pull out on the dollar! Billy's Prophesies will likely come true early not as a matter of Chinese spite, but as a matter of China cutting it loses because default will be proof the US can't even managed their own economy let alone the whole world. China and the rest of world will suffer economically because of it, with the damage done why not take this opportunity to drop the USA like a **** brick? The logic will be enhanced by the fact the USA will be the cause of the global depression, not up-starter china, not anyone else, a little vengeance and a lot of pragmatism make the decision to "de-Americanize" clear at that point. The damage a default will have on the world economy will force everyone to de-Americanize in order to rebuild the then depressed world economy with a more stable security, that being China! The USA will take many years if not decades to recover and likely never be what it was. Of course there are serious questioning that China might not yet be up to the task to replace the USA, but if the USA defaults the choice to switch will be forced upon the world!
If America defaults China will likely have to pull out on the dollar! Billy's Prophesies will likely come true early not as a matter of Chinese spite, but as a matter of China cutting it loses because default will be proof the US can't even managed their own economy let alone the whole world. China and the rest of world will suffer economically because of it, with the damage done why not take this opportunity to drop the USA like a **** brick? The logic will be enhanced by the fact the USA will be the cause of the global depression, not up-starter china, not anyone else, a little vengeance and a lot of pragmatism make the decision to "de-Americanize" clear at that point. The damage a default will have on the world economy will force everyone to de-Americanize in order to rebuild the then depressed world economy with a more stable security, that being China! The USA will take many years if not decades to recover and likely never be what it was. Of course there are serious questioning that China might not yet be up to the task to replace the USA, but if the USA defaults the choice to switch will be forced upon the world!
This and That
Perhaps, but that still begs the question; after all, more important to history than the actual truth is what people believe is the truth. The same can be said for this sort of prognostication. It is said that the dumbest person in the cult is the last one to drink the magic potion, but if you believe you're about to catch a ride on a comet and discover the secrets of eternal happiness and wisdom, you eat the freakin' applesauce.
I don't disagree, but would suggest in the first place that is a longer term issue that needs to be addressed, and also that isn't exactly relevant to the question of advocating euthanasia for profit. Then again, it's only the society to which I was born. Those come and go every day, right?
We may be fatally flawed, but we're also bloody brilliant creative, and the world is in so deep that as long as we keep trying in good faith, they're in. We might lose this gamble over the long run in some catastrophic way, breaking before the structure can provide an escape hatch.
What happens is what happens. Those who would advocate our premature demise are, like anyone else who makes such a choice, declaring themselves our enemies. Will they conspire to make it happen? Well, it's hard to see how people like our neighbor could, and that's almost as satisfying, I suppose, as the bravery of being out of range.
Political malice? That would be one thing. But our neighbor is hoping for this disaster sheerly for the sake of greed.
We're not ready to roll over yet. He's welcome to come on down to the good ol' U.S. of A. and make his pitch. Yes, people will gasp and say terrible things about our Canadian neighbors—we do, anyway—but, like I said, you can't really blame Canada. The conservative affliction is widespread, and fundamentally connected to the most animalistic aspects of our human nature. In other words, it is a tragically human condition.
Joepistole said:
Perhaps, but that still begs the question; after all, more important to history than the actual truth is what people believe is the truth. The same can be said for this sort of prognostication. It is said that the dumbest person in the cult is the last one to drink the magic potion, but if you believe you're about to catch a ride on a comet and discover the secrets of eternal happiness and wisdom, you eat the freakin' applesauce.
• • •
Billy T said:
I don't disagree, but would suggest in the first place that is a longer term issue that needs to be addressed, and also that isn't exactly relevant to the question of advocating euthanasia for profit. Then again, it's only the society to which I was born. Those come and go every day, right?
We may be fatally flawed, but we're also bloody brilliant creative, and the world is in so deep that as long as we keep trying in good faith, they're in. We might lose this gamble over the long run in some catastrophic way, breaking before the structure can provide an escape hatch.
What happens is what happens. Those who would advocate our premature demise are, like anyone else who makes such a choice, declaring themselves our enemies. Will they conspire to make it happen? Well, it's hard to see how people like our neighbor could, and that's almost as satisfying, I suppose, as the bravery of being out of range.
Political malice? That would be one thing. But our neighbor is hoping for this disaster sheerly for the sake of greed.
We're not ready to roll over yet. He's welcome to come on down to the good ol' U.S. of A. and make his pitch. Yes, people will gasp and say terrible things about our Canadian neighbors—we do, anyway—but, like I said, you can't really blame Canada. The conservative affliction is widespread, and fundamentally connected to the most animalistic aspects of our human nature. In other words, it is a tragically human condition.
Here is the rub, China cannot de-Americanize. It cannot pullout of the dollar without sacrificing a good part of its economy. And China knows it, the US knows, everyone with an understanding on international trade knows that. Further, it is no secret that no matter what happens now, China has been and continues to see the US as a threat and will do whatever it can whenever it can to bring down the US. But the unpleasant fact for China and those pushing the China agenda, trade is not charity. Trade is a two way street. In the US-China trade, for the most part, goods come to the US and US dollars go to China which China invests in US Treasuries, real estate, gold, etc. So if China "de-Americanizes", they stop the cash inflow and have a depression on their hands.
A US default will have worldwide ramifications…ramifications that far exceed China. It will be a clear signal to the world that the US government is no longer a reliable partner. It will be a clarion signal to the world that the US government is no longer capable of acting rationally, that the US would no longer have a stable government. A US default would trigger a worldwide reassessment and re-pricing of US debt and reassessment of risk. Heretofore US political risk had been near zero. This could cause a liquidity crisis of enormous proportions, take the last Great Recession and multiply it by several orders of magnitude. It will bring everyone down. And worse, the US government would be unable to take the remedial actions needed to mitigate the resulting depression and foment a recovery because Republicans in Congress will not allow it. They almost didn’t allow it in 2008. It’s a pretty ugly picture. That is why most on Wall Street and around the world don’t believe it will happen. It’s kind of like the business equivalent of nuclear war. But I think these Tea Party Republicans are just crazy enough and divorced from reality enough to do it. Never under estimate the Republican capacity for crazy.