Republicans In crisis and a Nation and a Democracy on the Sacrificial Alter

[Bells]

Now, Yoho is ready for a bigger fight. He doesn’t want to raise the debt ceiling — ever again. The experts, and Republican leaders, say that would trigger a financial catastrophe.

But Yoho didn’t listen to them about the shutdown. And look how that turned out.

“I think we need to have that moment where we realize [we’re] going broke,” Yoho said. If the debt ceiling isn’t raised, that will sure as heck be a moment. “I think, personally, it would bring stability to the world markets,” since they would be assured that the United States had moved decisively to curb its debt.

PURE INSANITY! The last part just made me laugh a cry at the same time, imagine if someone that owed you a lot of money came up to you at payment time and said "Yeah I need to curb my debt soo I'm not going to pay you" would you respect said person... or break his legs? There a good chance if the USA defaults that the world will decide to drop the dollar and go with something else more stable like the Yuan, the US economy would be doomed and likely never recover.

Anyways republicans say they want to negotiate, but what exactly do they want?

Their pride.

With the government shutdown in its fifth day, many Republicans have conceded the fight is no longer about Obamacare. Rep. Dennis Ross (R-Fla.) added his name to the list on Saturday, saying the matter now boils down to "pride."

“Republicans have to realize how many significant gains we’ve made over the last three years, and we have, not only in cutting spending but in really turning the tide on other things," Ross told The New York Times. "We can’t lose all that when there’s no connection now between the shutdown and the funding of Obamacare."

"I think now it’s a lot about pride," he added.​

Some of the extreme right have declared that all the 'non essential personnel' that are currently furloughed should just be fired, since you know, the Government is apparently doing fine without them. If we ignore that many are currently working without pay for the moment, to ensure the Government continues to function and what are apparently non-essential departments which oversee scientific research into medicine and the like, for example the CDC, even park rangers which go out and search for missing people in national parks, are currently shut down.. Or better yet, the departments which ensures that the food everyone eats is safe.. I mean sure, these things aren't essential, are they? Well they are in all developed and undeveloped countries, but apparently not for the US for the Tea Party darlings.

 

[Asguard]

what about the NTSB, currently all shut up but with workers ready to be called in if a plane crashes. Apparently that's enough, these people don't need regular training and work, just leave them on unpaid leave until there is a disaster, that's the way to treat emergency response

 

[joepistole]

Their pride.

With the government shutdown in its fifth day, many Republicans have conceded the fight is no longer about Obamacare. Rep. Dennis Ross (R-Fla.) added his name to the list on Saturday, saying the matter now boils down to "pride."

“Republicans have to realize how many significant gains we’ve made over the last three years, and we have, not only in cutting spending but in really turning the tide on other things," Ross told The New York Times. "We can’t lose all that when there’s no connection now between the shutdown and the funding of Obamacare."

"I think now it’s a lot about pride," he added.​

This has never been about anything other than satisfying the demands of ring wing media, the Glen Beck’s, Rush Limbaugh’s; Sean Hannity’s…protecting them from exposure as liars and inciting their right wing fanatical base while driving up their ratings.

[ Some of the extreme right have declared that all the 'non essential personnel' that are currently furloughed should just be fired, since you know, the Government is apparently doing fine without them. If we ignore that many are currently working without pay for the moment, to ensure the Government continues to function and what are apparently non-essential departments which oversee scientific research into medicine and the like, for example the CDC, even park rangers which go out and search for missing people in national parks, are currently shut down.. Or better yet, the departments which ensures that the food everyone eats is safe.. I mean sure, these things aren't essential, are they? Well they are in all developed and undeveloped countries, but apparently not for the US for the Tea Party darlings.

Unfortunately, this is what passes as serious intellectual thought in American right wing circles. Our armed forces were working without pay until just recently when Congress passed a bill to pay them. But there are still many federal workers who continue to work without pay like the capital police and the District of Columbia police. I don’t expect that will continue for very long if Republicans in Congress decide to not pay them indefinitely.

 

[joepistole]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/30/us-usa-fiscal-poll-idUSBRE98T15G20130930

In recent polling of economists referenced by Reuters, they put the odds of a US debt default at 10%, but we must remember economists are not politicians. Wall Street has consistently underestimated Republicans and their Tea Party. And it resulted in a US credit downgrade last time around. I think Wall Street has yet again underestimated the odds of a US debt default. I would put the odds of a US debt default at 50-50. I think it all boils down to one man, John Boehner. Does Boehner have the integrity and guts to act in the interests of the nation or will he act to save his job as Speaker? Thus far history has shown us that Boehner has neither integrity nor courage and that does not bode well for Americans. Boehner has said that he wouldn’t shut down the government, but he did. Boehner said he wouldn’t cause a debt default. History has yet to be written on that one. Let’s hope Boehner has picked up a sudden streak of honesty and courage. But I think the odds of that are as bad as winning the lottery, the Mega Millions jackpot.

 

[joepistole]

Here's a pretty good SNL Video that sums it up pretty well: http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/

 

[Billy T]

"We are not going to pass a clean debt limit,” Boehner said in an interview on ABC’s “This Week” program. “The votes are not in the House to pass a clean debt limit.” Boehner said he believed the country could end up in default if Obama doesn’t negotiate. “That’s the path we’re on,” Boehner said.

1 hour old

 

[ElectricFetus]

Well Billy I think we are about to see your predictions come true a little early and who would have figured it would be triggered on purpose?

What bothers me is why doesn't Obama even talk with these terrorist? Oh wait he has, but they keep saying he hasn't.

 

[Billy T]

Well Billy I think we are about to see your predictions come true a little early and who would have figured it would be triggered on purpose?...

Same post 186 story / different source:

"The nation's credit is at risk because of the administration's refusal to sit down and have a conversation," Boehner told ABC's "This Week," adding that there were not enough votes in the House of Representatives to pass a "clean" debt limit bill, without any conditions attached.

Asked if that meant the United States was headed towards a default if President Barack Obama did not negotiate ahead of an October 17 deadline to raise the debt ceiling, Boehner said: "That's the path we're on." The comments appeared to mark a hardening since late last week when Boehner was reported to have told Republicans privately that he would work to avoid default, even if it meant relying on the votes of Democrats, as he did in August 2011.

There are many paths to the run on dollar I forecast. It sort of requires some alternative to the dollar exist. Short term, the US's dysfunctional Congress may paradoxically strengthen the dollar, as that alternative is not clear and investors still tend to think of the dollar as the "safe haven" in times of uncertainty, like Congress is making.

The IMF, China, farm land, gold etc. or a mix of them may become the missing "alternative" but that will take some time. My Halloween 2014 is about right, I think.
With gold one can also estimated the price will soar by then too. In less than 14.2 months from now I calculate here:
http://www.sciforums.com/showthread.php?134352-Gold-Bubble-goes-POP&p=3117578&viewfull=1#post3117578

 

[Billy T]

Problem pre-dates tea party, etc.

{posted in August 2006 at: http://www.sciforums.com/showthread...US-voters-be&p=1131890&viewfull=1#post1131890 }
The US has two basic choices:
(1) drastically reduce its spending so it does not need to borrow more each year.This leads to global depression OR
(2) drastically increase interest rates to attract the money it needs to borrow and slow the growing trend to not roll the debt by China and other central banks. This too leads to global depression ... you must realize that if a nation (or individual) tries to live beyond their income, year after year going deeper into debt by borrowing more each year - it (or he) is headed for disaster.

US current generation has had a great time at the debt-financed, cheap-energy, party, but now (or very soon) the bill will fall due, and it can only be paid by the printing presses. This too leads to run away inflation, which destroys real wealth production or again a global depression of economic activity as existing liquid wealth is “burnt“ by inflation. ...

In fact much earlier (~1834) the fundamental problem (with low quality education local funding of schools gives) was recognized as discussed here: http://www.sciforums.com/showthread...ments-stable&p=2573119&viewfull=1#post2573119
Scandinavian countries federally fund high quality education and health care for ALL. Get your money into one of their currencies (Norwegian Kroner, is probably best as Norway has oil and gas) but even Brazil's Real or any other major supplier of minerals, energy, food stocks and timber to China will fare better than the dollar in the long run (decade or more).
I'm glad my two kids are fluent in Norwegian. (Both spent many summers there until age 12, when air fares became full fare. Both have worked in hotels there, later in life.*)

I don't think China will be ready by Haloween 2014 to tell US:
Go to Hell. We don't need to sell to you and won't lend more to you. Our factories are hard pressed to supply domestic demand and customers with cash.
As the Chinese are still saving too much of their income to buy all the factories can produce that is not needed as exports to pay for their imports, but if dollar has not collapsed under the growing debt and rising interest rates on it, by time red text is true, don't expect China to hesitate.

To understand why, China with delight, when ready, will economically crush the West, read this posts: http://www.sciforums.com/showthread...amp-comments&p=2668027&viewfull=1#post2668027
China will be too happy with its long waited revenge to even shed a "crocodile tear."

* Summer Jobs as hotels need more staff with the summer tourists. Fact that they also spoke French and of course, English helped get them the jobs. Fact that the hotel also knew that they would ask to leave to return to college helped too. Now days, if you speak Japanese or Mandarin and the local language, any hotel in Europe wants to hire you for the summer.

 

[ElectricFetus]

I'm confused, how is it logical to view the dollar as a 'safe haven' when US is teetering on default? I think if/when the US defaults critical chunk of global inverters will decide that its time to move to a new currency, most likely the Yuan and the US economy will deflate like a puncture balloon as the value of the dollar declines rapidly, only encouraging more investors to jump ship in an exponential feedback cycle, leaving nothing but torn shreds of vulcanized latex for the US economy.

 

[Billy T]

I'm confused, how is it logical to view the dollar as a 'safe haven' when US is teetering on default?....

Where did you get the idea that investors were, non-human logical processors? Most don't realize still what I explained in my August 2006 post, just quoted. If enough think we can "muddle thru" we can for many years, but the end is near now.

It is hard to buy Yuan outside of China & the IMF's special drawing rights, etc. are just for central banks. Big investors, like Sorus & Gates are already pouring billions into farms and related industries. Gold is being held down by paper gold traders, but not even for the 14.2 months more I calculated in the link I gave at end of pot 188. Did you read the logic there? How that upper limit on the delay of soaring gold prices was computed?

 

[ElectricFetus]

Where did you get the idea that investors were, non-human logical processors? Most don't realize still what I explained in my August 2006 post, just quoted. If enough think we can "muddle thru" we can for many years, but the end is near now.

Why would they think we can "muddle thru"? I would think investors are greedy almost perfect Nazi caricatures of "the jew" who would fuck over their own mother for an extra buck.

It is hard to buy Yuan outside of China & the IMF's special drawing rights, etc. are just for central banks. Big investors, like Sorus & Gates are already pouring billions into farms and related industries. Gold is being held down by paper gold traders, but not even for the 14.2 months more I calculated in the link I gave at end of pot 188. Did you read the logic there? How that upper limit on the delay of soaring gold prices was computed?

I've ready many detail financial prophecies before from many others, that end up usually being wrong, so I take yours as a "wait and see" event. What bothers me is that if the US defaults something 'like' your predicts is likely to come true, very soon.

 

[Billy T]

Why would they think we can "muddle thru"? ....

Strong tendency, especially in complex question, to assume the near future, at least,* will be like the recent past. US has never defaulted, Ergo it won't

* This is often extended to be "never can happen" like the guy the judge sentenced to death: " Sometime this month when you don't expect it."

He quickly realized it could not be the last day, so if that day was impossible so was the next to last day - logic exending all the way back to the first day of the month. Boy was he surprised when they hung him on the fourth day, to save on food cost.

Likewise, there will be a lot of Americans, surprised to wake up one day and learn they live under Marsha Law for the "indefinite future."

 

[joepistole]

If you want to know what the Republican/Tea Party kooks are going to do next, just listen to their leaders like Hannity, Beck, Limbaugh, Santelli (CNBC), Fox News, et al. They have been very good predictors in the past.

http://mediamatters.org/blog/2013/09/26/fox-hosts-are-ok-with-us-defaulting-on-debt/196118

http://mediamatters.org/video/2013/10/04/limbaugh-repeats-myths-that-downplay-consequenc/196292

And they, with the exception of Santelli, are telling their Republican/Tea Party followers that debt default is no big deal. In fact they are portraying debt default as a good thing. Santelli is simply saying a default will not happen.

Ten days remain till the US is no longer able to pay its bills unless the debt ceiling is raised. And Boehner, the Republican entertainment industry, Canadian Ted still believe President Obama will cave into their hostage demands.

 

[paddoboy]

Not quite into American/US politics, but just speaking as an obtrusive outsider, could Obama call another election of both houses to resolve the situation?

We had a similar situation in Australia in 1974 after the election of a Labor government after 23 years of Liberal conservatism, but they [the government] did not have a majority in the senate, and new policies were continually being blocked.... The government under Gough Whitlam implemented a large number of new programs and policy changes, including the elimination of military conscription and criminal execution, institution of universal health care and fee-free university education, and the implementation of legal aid programs.
Some policies were blocked in the senate and Whitlam in 1974 called a double-dissolution election [ or election of both houses] which they subsequently won.

 

[joepistole]

Not quite into American/US politics, but just speaking as an obtrusive outsider, could Obama call another election of both houses to resolve the situation?

We had a similar situation in Australia in 1974 after the election of a Labor government after 23 years of Liberal conservatism, but they [the government] did not have a majority in the senate, and new policies were continually being blocked.... The government under Gough Whitlam implemented a large number of new programs and policy changes, including the elimination of military conscription and criminal execution, institution of universal health care and fee-free university education, and the implementation of legal aid programs.
Some policies were blocked in the senate and Whitlam in 1974 called a double-dissolution election [ or election of both houses] which they subsequently won.

No our election cycles are fixed and our president cannot call new elections. Our next election for congress will be on November 4, 2014. Until then we must live with what we have. And the House, which is the current cause of our angst, is elected by congressional district. Many of those districts have been rigged by Republicans to give Republicans an unfair advantage in elections. That is why we currently have a House of Representatives controlled by the Republican Party. The rigging process is called gerrymandering. Democrats won more votes for House seats last election but remains a minority in the House because of gerrymandered congressional districts.

 

[Tiassa]

No Honor Among Thieves

Republicans: We've Got Nothing, So We're Just Going to Keep Lying to You

Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA22) is so confused by his party's maneuvering on the shutdown that he has simply given up and taking to lying:

On Monday, Nunes' office asked The Washington Post to remove the congressman's name from their list of House Republicans who have called for passing a clean continuing resolution to end the government shutdown. Nunes had been on the paper's list since last week, and he's still included in The Huffington Post's tally. The move by Nunes' office comes a few days after the congressman fumed to conservative outlet Newsmax that a certain "left-wing publication" had incorrectly reported that he said he would back a clean funding bill.

"The last thing I would do is work with [House Minority Leader] Nancy Pelosi," Nunes told Newsmax. He suggested that "someone took some comments I made and then made up a conclusion."

But HuffPost's Sabrina Siddiqui asked Nunes last Monday, hours before the shutdown began, whether he'd support a clean funding bill if it came down to it. His response: "Yeah." During the same exchange, Nunes told another reporter that he expects there's "more [Republicans] that would support it" as more time goes by.

(Bendery and Siddiqui)​

Meanwhile, the congressman's spokesman, Jack Langer, clarified that his boss had simply changed positions:

"He had considered a clean CR before the shutdown, as an alternative to the shutdown," Langer said. "Since the shutdown occurred, he has supported GOP leadership and voted with them and with the House majority for all the CRs."

When asked if Nunes had basically just changed his mind, Langer said, "No, the shutdown created new circumstances."

Langer added that Nunes has "done a lot of media in the last week explaining his position." He also said Nunes "frequently speaks on the House floor to Huffington Post reporters, who know his position well."​

I love that bit about HuffPo reporters knowing Nunes' positions well, since the underlying story is that the California Republican is trying to lie about a statement he gave to a HuffPo repoorter about the continuing resolution.

Changing one's mind is, well, one thing. It happens. It's part of being human, and actually an important faculty when it comes to not running the species extinct for stupidity.

However, it's apparently so anathema to Rep. Devin Nunes that lying is the preferable alternative.

I mean, hell, it's easier.
____________________

Notes:

Bendery, Jennifer and Sabrina Siddiqui. "Devin Nunes Denies Backing 'Clean' Funding Bill To Avert Shutdown, But He Did -- And We've Got It On Tape". The Huffington Post. October 7, 2013. HuffingtonPost. October 7, 2013. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/07/devin-nunes-clean-cr-shutdown_n_4059229.html

 

[Tiassa]

Every Time I Blink, the GOP Escalates Its Stupidity

Republican Messaging on Debt Ceiling

I wish I could lead off with two great jokes, but, unfortunately, no matter how much these sound like jokes, they're not, and even if they were, they wouldn't be so much great as rather quite sick:

"There's no such thing as a debt ceiling in this country because it's never been not increased, and that's why we're $17 trillion in debt," [Sen. Tom Coburn] said on CBS This Morning. "And I would dispel the rumor that's going around that you hear on every newscast that if we don't raise the debt ceiling, we'll default on our debt—we won't. We'll continue to pay our interest, we'll continue to redeem bonds, and we'll issue new bonds to replace those."

(Johnson)

• • •​

Now, Yoho is ready for a bigger fight. He doesn't want to raise the debt ceiling — ever again. The experts, and Republican leaders, say that would trigger a financial catastrophe.

But Yoho didn't listen to them about the shutdown. And look how that turned out.

"I think we need to have that moment where we realize [we're] going broke," Yoho said. If the debt ceiling isn't raised, that will sure as heck be a moment. "I think, personally, it would bring stability to the world markets," since they would be assured that the United States had moved decisively to curb its debt.

(Farenthold)​

Let nobody say we weren't warned. Those who cannot imagine Republicans forcing a debt default lack a very basic imagination, since it seems GOP caucuses in both House and Senate are preparing to do just that.
____________________

Notes:

Johnson, Luke. "Tom Coburn: 'There's No Such Thing As A Debt Ceiling'". The Huffington Post. October 7, 2013. HuffingtonPost.com. October 7, 2013. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/07/tom-coburn-debt_n_4056976.html

Farenthold, David A. "For Rep. Ted Yoho, government shutdown is 'the tremor before the tsunami'". The Washington Post. October 4, 2013. WashingtonPost.com. October 7, 2013. http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...b5aa8c-2c3c-11e3-8ade-a1f23cda135e_story.html

 

[paddoboy]

No our election cycles are fixed and our president cannot call new elections. Our next election for congress will be on November 4, 2014. Until then we must live with what we have. And the House, which is the current cause of our angst, is elected by congressional district. Many of those districts have been rigged by Republicans to give Republicans an unfair advantage in elections. That is why we currently have a House of Representatives controlled by the Republican Party. The rigging process is called gerrymandering. Democrats won more votes for House seats last election but remains a minority in the House because of gerrymandered congressional districts.

Our election cycles are set at a maximum of 3 year terms....The PM though, as happened in 1974, may call an early election.
Sometimes also, a PM can call an early election date if situations and polls are favourable.
Election boundaries are set by the Australian Electoral Commision in a manner that is determined by population. To ensure equal representation, the boundaries of these divisions have to be redrawn or redistributed periodically...So gerrymandering is at least in theory non-existant. [although some depending on allegiance will argue with that]

 

[Billy T]

More, but same POV on my posts 191&193 from NYT/ OpEd by Stephen D. King, chief economist at HSBC, is the author of When the Money Runs Out: The End of Western Affluence.

Not knowing who, ultimately, will lose as a consequence of our past excesses helps explain America’s current strife. This is not an argument for immediate and painful austerity, which isn’t working in Europe. It is, instead, a plea for economic honesty, to recognize that promises made during good times can no longer be easily kept.

That means a higher retirement age, more immigration to increase the working-age population, less borrowing from abroad, less reliance on monetary policy that creates unsustainable financial bubbles, a new social compact that doesn’t cannibalize the young to feed the boomers, a tougher stance toward banks, a further opening of world trade and, over the medium term, a commitment to sustained deficit reduction.

In his “Future of an Illusion,” Sigmund Freud argued that the faithful clung to God’s existence in the absence of evidence because the alternative — an empty void — was so much worse. Modern beliefs about economic prospects are not so different. Policy makers simply pray for a strong recovery. They opt for the illusion because the reality is too bleak to bear. But as the current fiscal crisis demonstrates, facing the pain will not be easy. And the waking up from our collective illusions has barely begun.*

Bold added by Billy T

* I "woke up" more than 10 years ago, and posted 7+ years ago the dire inevitable was coming about Halloween 2014.