Probability of evolution

answers

Registered Senior Member
I've got this thing that mathematically works out the probability of evolution, and comes to the conclusion that it has no chance at all. But I'm not going to spend time posting it if it has already been posted before, and I know how much you guy's hate hearing the same thing you've heard before, and I sense that this has been done before. Please tell me, thanks.

CyA
 
Maybe it has been here before, but I haven't seen it. Please post it or a link to where it is. I like pseudo math.
 
There is already an equation and because I have looked at it and can tell it works I know you are lying or have made a mathematical error.
Of the known stars the number that have planets that have experienced evolution is staggering. It was an insanely gigantic number. But I remember the number that evolved civilisation is only about 50 000. That is a little more chancey. There are 50 000 planets out there with cities, way, way way more with animal kingdoms.
Think about it, mars is a millimetre(figuratively speaking) away from evolution itself, it just missed out, 2 planets in this tiny galaxy had the potential for it.
And you think there is no chance for it happening in all the universe? Thats insane.
 
Bad math

Originally posted by answers
I've got this thing that mathematically works out the probability of evolution
Evolution is an observed phenomena, the probability is therefore 100%. Calculating the odds (which is actually impossible) of it's occurrence makes no more sense than calculating the odds that lightning will strike a specific tree that has already been struck, no matter how "impossible" you think the event may be, it happened.

To wit: There are about 8.6 billion of acres of forest worldwide with about 500 trees per acre (a low-middle figure based upon reforestation) which gives us about 4.3 trillion trees. The probability of a single tree being hit by lightning (given that one must be hit, which is not really true) is 1 in 4.3 trillion. So with such "impossible" odds I guess trees are almost never hit by lightning.

Hopefully, that illuminates the problem for you.

~Raithere
 
Raithere, I'm not going to let you pull the wool over someone else's eyes because of ignorance. When you say "evolution" you mean the (1)theory that intelligent life evolved from dead matter (2)deduced from observed changes in natural life, or differences between existing and extinct species. It is far from fact.

Since the odds of life evolving on earth is 100% (since we observe life on earth), why is there no life or remnant of it on the moon, which is younger than the earth? Because you seem to indicate the odds against that is far from impossible - you even make it sound likely in your argument.
 
why is there no life or remnant of it on the moon, which is younger than the earth?

The Moon doesnt have the right conditions to sustain life. Proximity to the sun and the planet's resources are crucial factors that need to be taken into consideration.
 
For how long must a planet be in the "sweetspot" for life to get the hint and start evolving?
 
Shearing the Creationists

Originally posted by Jenyar
Raithere, I'm not going to let you pull the wool over someone else's eyes because of ignorance. When you say "evolution" you mean the (1)theory that intelligent life evolved from dead matter (2)deduced from observed changes in natural life, or differences between existing and extinct species. It is far from fact.
Sorry, but you are the one who is incorrect.

The theory that intelligent life evolved from dead matter is properly called Abiogenesis and is not a part of observed Evolution or evolutionary theory although it is indeed indicated from a scientific 'evolutionary' perspective. However, even a proven creation event would not invalidate the observed facts of Evolution. Fact is fact, you cannot talk your way around it. Abiogenesis, however, is not a fact it is a hypotheses or theory at this point.

Evolution, is defined as, "Change in the genetic composition of a population during successive generations, as a result of natural selection acting on the genetic variation among individuals, and resulting in the development of new species.". Which is has been proven to be fact. There is no escaping this fact no matter how many problems/mistakes/contradictions you may have for Abiogenesis or the various explanatory theories of how it has and does occur.

Evolutionary theory includes the various and sometimes contradictory explanations of what the precise mechanisms and history of the development of species are. Indeed, although many of the mechanisms and incidents described in evolutionary theory are facts, there is still quite a bit of contention amongst Biologists in this arena.

Creationists attempt to repudiate the entire body of factual as well as theoretical work under the label "Evolution" while in actuality they are only able to contest Abiogenesis and certain aspects of evolutionary theory. It is the creationists who are being dishonest and attempting to "pull the wool" over our eyes... in actual fact they are lying to us.

Since the odds of life evolving on earth is 100% (since we observe life on earth), why is there no life or remnant of it on the moon
Um, hello. Because it's not the Earth.

which is younger than the earth?
The Moon is approximately the same age as the Earth and, actually, older rocks can be found upon it because it lacks the atmospheric weathering and the plate tectonic activity we find on Earth.

Because you seem to indicate the odds against that is far from impossible - you even make it sound likely in your argument.
It happens, which makes it's certain, which means that the probability that evolution occured on Earth 100%.

The probability that life would occur on any random planet is a different calculation but the indications are quite good that life is rather common throughout the Universe. Intelligent life is thought to be far less likely, civilization even less likely and the chances that there is another civilization with a comparable technology to ours coexisting at the same time period and within a communicable distance is far far less likely.

The probability that life would occur within any random Universe is the one that Creationists like to toss around in order to "demonstrate" the "impossibility" of the conditions for life. However, the problem is that there is only one observable Universe, for which we can only hypothesize the parameters of its occurrence. Basically, the numbers are pulled out of their ass with little to no justification.

~Raithere
 
Originally posted by man_of_jade
How about this... What are the chances that it was going to happen?
It depends upon what conditions you accept as given.

If you accept no conditions at all as given the chances are infinitesimal. However, if you accept the laws of chemistry and physics as given the odds improve considerably.

The fact that organic chemicals develop naturally from inorganic chemicals and are found throughout the Universe combined with the sheer number of stars in the Universe (somewhere on the order of 10^21 (that is 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000)) and the discovery that extra-solar planets are probably more common than originally thought (in fact most young stars have proto-planetary disks around them) the possibility comes pretty damn close to a certainty.

~Raithere
 
Originally posted by Jenyar
For how long must a planet be in the "sweetspot" for life to get the hint and start evolving?
Define what you mean by life.

But if you accept cellular organisms as the most basic form the earliest evidence is about 3.5 billion years old, meaning that it took life about a billion years from the formation of the Earth to get to the point of fossilize-able remains. Of course the "sweet-spot" was probably considerably shorter.

~Raithere
 
OK. This is the way I see it, although I probably don't know what I'm talking about.

If I role a 12,456 sided die, what are the chances of getting a number? 1 in 12,456. Now, this is a slim chance, but I HAVE to get a number. Once I get the number, I can't say "That can't be possible, it only had a 1 in 12,456 chance of happening." The truth is, it has occurred.

What I am trying to say that although the chances of life being created and evolving are small, this doesn't mean it didn't happen.

Look at the enormous amount of planets observed by astronomers. Not one of them has life (that we know of). How many planets do you think there are in the universe? A billion. Therefore, according to theoritical probability, at least one will have life. We are just lucky enough to be that life, and are able to comprehend life.

Hmmm. Opinions from others. Do you think I'm right?
 
The dice allegory doens't really make sense, since you assume that every possible side on that dice represents life, while only one - that specific one that it happens to lie on - represents the origin of life. And your dice is far too small to be representative - in reality chances are closer to 1 against infinity.
 
Originally posted by Jenyar
The dice allegory doens't really make sense, since you assume that every possible side on that dice represents life, while only one - that specific one that it happens to lie on - represents the origin of life. And your dice is far too small to be representative - in reality chances are closer to 1 against infinity.
I think he is trying to say that no matter what the odds are there is no denying that it happen. I can stand here and argue that the specific sperm that made me, me had an ice cube's chance in August of hitting paydirt, but there is no denying that I am here annoying people and making typos.
 
Originally posted by Jenyay
The dice allegory doens't really make sense, since you assume that every possible side on that dice represents life, while only one - that specific one that it happens to lie on - represents the origin of life.
Are you attempting to tell us that no other set of conditions could have resulted in life?

And your dice is far too small to be representative.
I already addressed this above, your assertion is purely assumptive.

~Raithere
 
Maybe they could have, but since we are looking at it from the perspective of existence - as you are - we see that in fact no other set of conditions have resulted in life. Nobody is denying that it did happen, but it's a strange premise to work from since all our other variables are X leaning towards infinity.

I guess this is where you say "not yet", and this is where you are also being asumptive.
 
Let me throw in my two cents here....

Science appeals to me becuase you can touch it, taste it, smell it, feel it. The conclusions are reached by asking questions, digging dirt, experimenting...it's a far more appealing alternative to religion, which you cannot see, cannot feel, cannot taste, cannot touch.

But it's this argument, the probability of life in the Universe, that makes believing the science as rediculous as believing in the Christian God. It's a leap of faith! A ludicris one!

The numbers, if you can believe this, are based on only one example, ours. They do not know of any other life (Or so they say...mwahahaha) on any other planet, so all they know of what it takes for life to happen is what happened HERE. Tell me in what other circumstance would a scientist draw a conclusion this way? NONE.

And let's be perfectly honest here, and speak frankly; nobody is sure how mankind came about in the first place, so the numbers for probability of life on other planets is really just based on a theory.
 
they base the theory on the factors that are deemed necessary for life to exist and the random occurance that that situation might occur- which equates to an infinitesimally small number. but times that against the random occurance of planets around stars- which is observed to a degree and an absolutely MASSIVE number, and you have a decent chance that life will come about just through chance. i.e. planet earth. in our solar system we have 9 planets alone. 9!!! believe me when i say the probability that life will occur randomly is much bigger than you think it might be, and that we cannot assume that our planet is the only planet that has some sort of life on it.
 
Originally posted by atheroy
in our solar system we have 9 planets alone. 9!!!
Sure we have 9 planets, but that is nothing when you consider there are somewhere around 95 when you count all the moons.
 
Back
Top