Oil Reserves in the U.S. Upped

Go read Golgo's posts in this thread. There is really nothing new here.

And rather than the incredible WorldNutDaily, how about a news source with some credibility?

The price of crude oil could soar to $200 a barrel in as little as six months, as supply continues to struggle to meet demand, a report has warned.

Goldman Sachs energy strategist Argun Murti made the warning as benchmark US light crude passed the $123 mark for the first time.

Surging demand was increasingly likely to create a "super-spike" past $200 in six months-to-two years' time, he said.

Oil prices have now risen by 25% in the

last four months and 400% since 2001.

US sweet, light crude hit an all-time peak of $123.53 (£63.25) on Wednesday, while London Brent crude jumped to $122.32.

Mr Murti correctly predicted three years ago - when oil was about $55 a barrel - that it would pass $100, which it reached for the first time in January of this year.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7387203.stm
 
US Department of Energy, the International Energy Agency, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Matthew Simmons who is the energy advisor to the President, Deutsche Bank Research, the former Vice president of Saudi Arabian oil giant Aramco, and Former CIA director James Woolsey and Vice President Dick Cheney's Energy Task Force policies of '99 and 2001 are all reporting the facts.

Bush was explicitly clear when he said "What people need to hear loud and clear is that we're running out of energy in America. We can do a better job in conservation, but we darn sure have to do a better job of finding more supply. We can't conserve our way to energy independence.". He didn't sugar-coat it.

He also hasn't sugar coated his supply-acquiring solution (*cough*Iraq*cough*) was either.

For this 'Oil depletion is a conspiracy' nonsense to make any sense, you have to revise petroleum history so that the U.S. never peaked as an oil province in 1970 like it did and right on target with Dr. M. King Hubbert's depletion model, you have to believe that every energy authority and geology expert in the world is forging petroleum data, that oil companies are deliberately holding back spare capacity at a time of record demand when they could release more while keeping the price of oil the same and making that much more of a killing.

It makes no sense. If this was some vast international conspiracy to make money, then they would be releasing more oil now that demand is at the highest level ever.

I use a good ol' fashioned Occam's Razor when evaluating competing theories. Cut out the bullshit, and keep a strict 'Just the facts' policy, with minimal speculation.

With that in mind:

Indonesia considers leaving Opec


Crude oil exports have declined by 70% in the past two years

The petroleum facts are explicitly clear. OPEC nations falling off the map isn't exactly incon-fucking-spicuous now, is it?

When you leave OPEC, you don't come back. It means you're busted, you're depleted, and you've gone over the bell curve.

Now if you take all this in with the fact that the first and second largest oil fields in the world going into terminal decline, what does that spell?

It doesn't take a genius to figure out what's going on.

http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=785620&postcount=128

That was posted in 2005.

Opec member Indonesia is considering leaving the oil cartel to concentrate on domestic production, the country's president has said.

Levels of oil production from its ageing wells are declining, making the country a net importer of oil when crude prices are at record levels.

It has had to cut subsidies on domestic fuel to avoid a massive budget deficit.

Some analysts have said the oil exporting group's reluctance to boost production has kept prices high.

Oil analyst Kurtubi said that - as an oil importer - Indonesia's concerns clashed with those of other Opec members.

"[Indonesia's] interests now are different. We want oil prices to come down as high oil prices put pressure on our budget. But exporters want a reasonable or even high price since it is their main source of revenue."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7384968.stm
 
And if we hadn't allowed the environmentalist to dictate our present energy policy's and built the refineries and drilled the reserves in our own country we wouldn't be in the problems we are in now.

And how many years will it be before the infrastructure can be changed and put in place to utilize these new renewable energy sources, that haven't matured to the level to be able to supply the energy need of today?

I find it interesting that new oil finds are announced monthly, major finds, month after month after month, the major problem in the U.S. is that we haven't built a new refinery since 1976, and have limited the drilling of new wells in known oil fields off the west cost, Florida, the Atlantic Cost, or in this country, we are now importing refined gas from overseas, if we would utilize the known reserves in the U.S. and from off shore sites we have a 160 year cushion to mature alternative energies, and to develop the infrastructure necessary to deliver and utilize those sources, and by switching to nuclear power for electricity we could save billions of gallons of oil used to run the generators that produce our electric power.

We had more refineries, they were closed. It's a bad investment with no future. Perhaps nuclear power is a viable alternative, are you willing to pay more taxes to pay for them? There is also the problem of a uranium peak.
 
Why do we need to drill in ANWAR if oil is abiotic? Shouldn't we just wait until the old field replenish themselves? Oh, silly me, trying to make sense...
 
We had more refineries, they were closed. It's a bad investment with no future. Perhaps nuclear power is a viable alternative, are you willing to pay more taxes to pay for them? There is also the problem of a uranium peak.

Johnny one note, the world is running out of everything.........really? then why are new oil find coming every month?, why haven't we run out of oil? the peak says we should be seeing no more finds of the magnitude that are being report.

http://www.jsg.utexas.edu/news/feats/2007/location_location.html

Location, Location, Location: Mapping the World’s Oil & Gas Giants
August 2007

Want to find the next giant oil or gas field? Then look at the map produced by Paul Mann and his colleagues.

Mann—senior research scientist at the Institute for Geophysics at The University of Texas at Austin—says it provides some important clues. The map of the world’s giants prepared in collaboration with consultant Mike Horn of Tulsa, and Ian Cross, a vice-president for IHS, an energy information company headquartered in Houston, indicates the location and tectonic setting of all known giant fields, those with over 500 million barrels of ultimately recoverable oil or an equivalent amount of gas.

Spend a little time with the map and you see that giants understand the old real estate adage: location, location, location. They prefer to hang out in about 25 upscale neighborhoods or clusters. These clusters are very unevenly distributed around the planet. The combined cluster areas cover less than a third of the Earth’s surface.

The Persian Gulf is the largest cluster with over 200 of the 932 giants the group has identified so far. The Persian Gulf is a long lived passive margin of the former Tethyan ocean that collided with Eurasia in the Cenozoic. Its long lived history means the rock layering has superimposed or “stacked” intervals of both high quality source and reservoir rocks. If the oil misses one reservoir on its migration upward there is an overlying reservoir to sop it up. Evaporites provide seals or “caulking” that prevent the hydrocarbons from escaping to the surface.

The second densest cluster of giants are the 93 giants of the Western Siberian basin, a huge, largely on-land rifted area formed during the Permo-Triassic as Asia tried to split apart.

In fact, as this article was being prepared, an obscure Russian independent operator announced the discovery of a giant gas field in eastern Siberia's Irkutsk region. Proceeds from hydrocarbons produced in the Western Siberian basin are helping to power the revived Russian economy and make it one of the key oil and gas exporters to eastern and western Europe.

Computer technology makes it easier to track the locations and main characteristics of the many giants.

“We can click on any giant field on our map and pull up a spreadsheet of its main characteristics,” says Mann. “We plot the basin locations on geologic maps to gain understanding of their tectonic settings. We mine the published literature for seismic and well data to construct a database for each giant field. We can sort fields which share particular characteristics including production figures or geologic characteristics like reservoir types.”
“Once we pulled the database together for this paper, it has become less of a chore to update it each year,” he says. Fifty seven giant oil and gas fields were discovered in the period from 2000 to 2005.

Running on Empty?

Discoveries of giants, which make up roughly half the world’s oil and gas reserves, have declined since the 1970s. No one argues about that, says Mann. The decline has led some experts to predict that oil and gas will run out in the next few decades.


Paul Mann conducting field work in Nicaragua, May 2007Mann says his team’s mapping and tabulation of fields helps to show how these trends are evolving decade by decade and how improving technologies like 3D seismic data are impacting the hunt.

There are 932 giants on our giants map at the moment,” he says. “Working with Ian Cross, our collaborator at the Global Petroleum Information department of IHS, we are always adding new ones and classifying their tectonic settings. We greatly appreciate Ian’s collaboration since he keeps us up to date with the latest discovery information from the industry.”


Of particular interest in their compilation are the new giants that are discovered in areas with no previous track record of giants. These are the potential cluster areas of the future since favorably large source and reservoir potential exists. Some examples of these new emerging clusters are the deepwater area of the Bay of Bengal (both eastern India and Myanmar), the Ordos and Tarim basins of western China, the Mekong delta of Viet Nam, the Sudan rift of Africa, and the deepwater area of northern Australia. In all of these areas, geoscientists are working feverishly to define the size and limits of the cluster. The larger the cluster area, the better the outlook.

The first part of this decade has seen an uptick in the number of giant discoveries, despite the overall decline in discoveries since the 1970s. This is a reflection of the tremendous increase in deepwater exploration of the passive margin and rift environments along continental margins.

This decade is poised to become the third most prolific in history for the discovery of giants. And that has Horn feeling optimistic about the future of oil and gas. “I see a turn around,” says Horn. “There was a burst of activity in the 1960s and 70s with the advent of digital seismic. We had a major new tool. That was followed by a rapid decline in the 1980s and 90s. Now we’re seeing a turn around.”

Based on trends in the numbers of annual discoveries, Mann and colleagues predict that 33 more oil and gas giants will be discovered before the end of this decade, as reported in their talk at the April 2007 AAPG annual meeting in Long Beach, California.


GIANT FIELD TRENDS-2: Giant fields likely to supply 40%+ of ...
Since Jan. 1, 2000, 72 giant fields have been discovered. ... Decade 1940 leads the list with an average giant oil field size of 4.67 billion bbl. ...
http://www.ogj.com/display_article/...-likely-to-supply-40+-of-world’s-oil-and-gas/


Actually there has been a increase in the oil reserves of the world, the new fields in the U.S., Jack Field, (15 billion barrels of oil) Thunder Horse, (1 billion barrels of oil), Cleansweep, just starting production,

Chevron discovery, BP announced it had driven its drills through a layer of oil almost 250 meters (820 feet) thick west of Jack 2. That would be the second-thickest layer of oil ever discovered in the Gulf of Mexico. Seen on a map, the eight discoveries are distributed like a string of pearls.

http://www.spiegel.de/img/0,1020,700091,00.jpg

Massive Oil Deposit Could Increase US reserves by 10x
Massive Oil Deposit Could Increase US reserves by 10x. America is sitting on top of a super massive 200 billion barrel Oil Field that could potentially make ...

"As an astronomer reading spectrographs," Corsi noted, "Gold knew that hydrocarbon products such as methane are abundant in our solar system. Gold knew that the abundant methane on Titan, the giant moon of Saturn, did not get formed by little dinosaurs up on Titan, or by any other kind of biological material. So far as we know, nothing living has ever been found on Titan."
 
Discoveries continue as long as there is financial incentive to continue. They do not contribute to a significant re-evaluation of the oil situation, since none of them compare to the first finds, they are qualitatively and quantitatively lesser.

Peak oil is not the premise that oil will run out, as if it can be economically viable until the last drop can be squeezed from the Earth. In all likelyhood, only half of all the oil will ever be recovered.
 
Why do we need to drill in ANWAR if oil is abiotic? Shouldn't we just wait until the old field replenish themselves? Oh, silly me, trying to make sense...

Because we have capped the existing wells and the environmentalist and Democrats block any attempt to re-open those old fields.

Are Old Oil Fields Refilling? || kuro5hin.org
This Newsday article indicates that the "impossible" may be happening: old, depleted oil fields are refilling with more oil. ...
http://www.kuro5hin.org/story/2002/4/24/101927/375

Apparently, this new oil is seeping up from deeper underground. The article asserts that this is simply upward movement from older, deeper oil fields. I would point out, however, this discovery might also be evidence supporting the controversial theory that oil originates within the molten mantle of the earth, not from the decay of organic material (which is the accepted theory).

Oil Fields Are Refilling...Naturally - Sometimes Rapidly There Are ...
Although it sounds too good to be true, increasing evidence from the Gulf of Mexico suggests that some old oil fields are being refilled by petroleum ...
http://www.rense.com/general63/refil.htm

Kennicutt, a faculty member at Texas A&M University, said it is now clear that gas and oil are coming into the known reservoirs very rapidly in terms of geologic time. The inflow of new gas, and some oil, has been detectable in as little as three to 10 years. In the past, it was not suspected that oil fields can refill because it was assumed the oil formed in place, or nearby, rather than far below.

Geochemist Says Oil FieldsMay Be Refilled Naturally - New York Times
COULD it be that many of the world's oil fields are refilling themselves at ... If we were to go back to some old oil field that had been abandoned 50 years ...
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpa...5A1575AC0A963958260&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=all

Geochemist Says Oil FieldsMay Be Refilled Naturally

By MALCOLM W. BROWNE
Published: September 26, 1995
COULD it be that many of the world's oil fields are refilling themselves at nearly the same rate they are being drained by an energy-hungry world?

A geochemist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts says she believes that hitherto undetected gas and oil reservoirs lying at very great depths within the earth's crust could stave off the inevitable oil depletion much longer than many experts have estimated.

The scientist, Dr. Jean K. Whelan, whose research is part of a $2 million Department of Energy exploration program in the Gulf of Mexico south of New Orleans, has found evidence of differences in the composition of oil over periods of time as it flows from greater to shallower depths. By gauging degradative chemical changes in the oil resulting from action by oil-eating bacteria, she infers that oil is moving in quite rapid spurts from great depths to reservoirs closer to the surface.


Geochemist Says Oil FieldsMay Be Refilled Naturally

By MALCOLM W. BROWNE
Published: September 26, 1995
The discovery that oil seepage is continuous and extensive from many ocean vents lying above fault zones has convinced many scientists that oil is making its way up through the faults from much deeper deposits. Faulting associated with such seepage is common along the Pacific Coast, in parts of the North Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico, among other areas, Dr. Whelan said.


Sustainable oil?
Another interesting fact is that every oil field throughout the world has ... that several oil reservoirs around the globe are refilling themselves, ...
http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=38645

Sustainable oil?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted: May 25, 2004
1:00 am Eastern

By Chris Bennett
© 2008 WorldNetDaily.com

About 80 miles off of the coast of Louisiana lies a mostly submerged mountain, the top of which is known as Eugene Island. The portion underwater is an eerie-looking, sloping tower jutting up from the depths of the Gulf of Mexico, with deep fissures and perpendicular faults which spontaneously spew natural gas. A significant reservoir of crude oil was discovered nearby in the late '60s, and by 1970, a platform named Eugene 330 was busily producing about 15,000 barrels a day of high-quality crude oil.

By the late '80s, the platform's production had slipped to less than 4,000 barrels per day, and was considered pumped out. Done. Suddenly, in 1990, production soared back to 15,000 barrels a day, and the reserves which had been estimated at 60 million barrels in the '70s, were recalculated at 400 million barrels. Interestingly, the measured geological age of the new oil was quantifiably different than the oil pumped in the '70s.
 
Bloomberg.com: Latin America
Apr 15, 2008 ... ``That whole area off the coast of Brazil is becoming a new oil province.'' The Carioca field, also known as BM-S-9, is located beneath a ...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aUWwKQhtYbbM&refer=news


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7201744.stm

Tuesday, 22 January 2008, 07:08 GMT

'Huge' gas field found off Brazil
By Gary Duffy
BBC News, Sao Paulo

Recent finds could turn Brazil into a leading global energy supplier
A huge natural gas field has been found a short distance off Rio de Janeiro's coastline, Petrobras, Brazil's state-controlled oil company, says.

The company believes the new field, Jupiter, could match the recently discovered Tupi oil field in size.

Tupi is thought to be one of the largest fields discovered in the past 20 years.
 
Discoveries continue as long as there is financial incentive to continue. They do not contribute to a significant re-evaluation of the oil situation, since none of them compare to the first finds, they are qualitatively and quantitatively lesser.

Peak oil is not the premise that oil will run out, as if it can be economically viable until the last drop can be squeezed from the Earth. In all likelyhood, only half of all the oil will ever be recovered.

But haven't you said that there should not be any more discoveries of this magnitude? Peak Oil? running out?

What about Paul Mann?

Have you even bothered to look at his finding, or look at the map produced by Paul Mann and his colleagues.

They are making money for their efforts, and the oil industry is coming to them for the next big location to drill.

No you haven't you just stick with the discredited information from the last century that the world is dying and we are running out of everything, well show me a prediction that has come true, the oceans aren't dead, the global warming has not developed, in fact in the last five years a cooling trend is in progress, you sing your one note, and they just keep finding new Elephants, Since Jan. 1, 2000, 72 giant fields have been discovered, and Mann predicts 33 mode by the end of the decade, that is the new reality, not the predictions of the last century.
 
Peak oil doesn't mean running out. Can we start from there?

Then what does it mean? your the one who keeps pushing this theory, and I keep finding reports of new elephants, and I have found new information developed by Paul Mann, Ph.D., senior research scientist at the Institute for Geophysics at The University of Texas at Austin, which shows were to find giant oil field, and that the next decade as the most prolific for new oil finds, what are your bona fides?

72 new giants since 2000, 33 more before the end of the decade, and how many more after that?

How about the research that shows the old fields are refilling, that is still happening, and we sit here with our thumbs up our backsides waiting on the new renewable energy, and all the while our economy and standard of living is stagnating, and crumbling.

Which new renewable energy source is able to fill our need today? Name IT! there is none, and we in this country have no energy policy for today or even the next decade, and the RES, will not be able to replace oil in the next 20 years, the infrastructure cannot be replaced that fast, and if the economy goes in the tank, we will not have the money to ever do it.
 
solor, wind and hydrogen could do it quite easerly if we were to actually put the MONEY into them. HELL we could all have free energy if the goverment paid for solor and wind to be installed on every roof, hydrogen could be made from that energy and water again if the goverment was willing to pay for these to be installed in peoples homes

But they wont because that would mean shutting down an intire industry straight away, not to mention making all the cars on the road require replacement
 
buffalo said:
Since Jan. 1, 2000, 72 giant fields have been discovered, and Mann predicts 33 mode by the end of the decade, that is the new reality, not the predictions of the last century.
The chart I linked for you was not made last century. If you want, you can fill in the last year or so of discovered reserves on it, and see what effect they have on the trend.

Not much.

We will never run out of oil. Just oil we can afford to burn in cars for fuel, or make fertilizer out of for animal feed corn.

And the day we can't afford to use oil as a feedstock for ordinary plastics, medicine, fertilizer, handy sophisticated objects and devices and materials of all kinds that we are just beginning to figure out, in mass production, will be the day people look back on the cars we were driving in the twentieth century and wonder what in hell we were thinking.
 
The chart I linked for you was not made last century. If you want, you can fill in the last year or so of discovered reserves on it, and see what effect they have on the trend.

Not much.

We will never run out of oil. Just oil we can afford to burn in cars for fuel, or make fertilizer out of for animal feed corn.

And the day we can't afford to use oil as a feedstock for ordinary plastics, medicine, fertilizer, handy sophisticated objects and devices and materials of all kinds that we are just beginning to figure out, in mass production, will be the day people look back on the cars we were driving in the twentieth century and wonder what in hell we were thinking.

What's more credible - running low on a finite resource, or a global conspiracy to cover up the fact that there is actually more of that resource than humans could ever possibly use? Remember, the OP is a creationist.
 
And the day we can't afford to use oil as a feedstock for ordinary plastics, medicine, fertilizer, handy sophisticated objects and devices and materials of all kinds that we are just beginning to figure out, in mass production, will be the day people look back on the cars we were driving in the twentieth century and wonder what in hell we were thinking.
Plastic is still pretty much dirt cheap, isn't it?

But, regarding your larger point, I remember reading something by Author C. Clark or maybe Larry Niven about oil. This was an article in an anthology from like 30 years ago. He pointed out that the problem with using oil wasn't pollution, it was that it was useful for too many other things to go around burning it all up!
 
Back in the late 70's I was a roughneck in Texas. Per Federal regulations we were capping every 3rd well that was drilled. This didn't matter if the lease was held by ARAMCO, SHELL, or Cheveron. What the domistic oil producers were doing back then was to pump a portion of their oil onto ships, take them out beyound the 3 mile barrier for a week, bring them back in and charge imported prices per barrel. Oh yeah, the capping was for the national reserve for the USA. Didn't matter if it was natural gas or oil, it was capped.
 
Peak oil doesn't mean running out. Can we start from there?

Nope. Because it DOES mean running out. Honestly, I expected more from you. Buffalo isn't going to improve or understand the problem, but you should be smarter than that...
 
Ever notice that there has never once been an oil shortage during the past year of spiraling gas prices? It would seem that gas should be in short supply if it were actually running out wouldn't it?:shrug:

We are just being screwed at the pumps by the oil companies telling us lies while they make some of the largest profits in history and the gas keeps flowing.:mad:
 
Ever notice that there has never once been an oil shortage during the past year of spiraling gas prices? It would seem that gas should be in short supply if it were actually running out wouldn't it?:shrug:

We are just being screwed at the pumps by the oil companies telling us lies while they make some of the largest profits in history and the gas keeps flowing.

It isn't some spot shortage caused by an embargo. It is a structural deficit caused by a long term trend of supply being unable to keep pace with an ever increasing demand.

Brent Crude Oil $ per BBL, last twelve months:

 
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