Im not sure if their is any threads on this but on google if you search somethings on oil, humanity is heading into the stone ago within the next 30 years. Oil prices are sky rocketing, its getting harder to get oil as we run out. Cost of barrel oil is sky rocketing. Eventually we will run out and then what? Everything stops no cars, no electricity, billions loose jobs. Would it really be the end of civilization as we know it?
Oil Crisis
- Thread starter ck27
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geistkiesel
Valued Senior Member
You don't think that the current price of oil is market driven do you? Do you ever have a corruption factor in your economic analyses?ck27 said:
Get a vuison of this. Relax anbd close your eyes. You see black smoke rising over 900 Kuwaiti oil fields on fire the previous week the barrel prce of oil was around $22, whe h eoil fields flamed heprice shot up to a high of around $37, 38.The day or so the proce dropped back to the $22 pice which is remained for some length of time.
Earlier still , I was in a line of cars of bouit 20 long wwaiting to get gas from a Chevron station. There were 4 irows pf pumps pr 8 lanes available for getting gas. I saw the owner opf he station (owner manager) and went up to him and asked him iof he people in he line would get gas today. The owner said sure. Now there was only one;ane open for everybody. So when I said, "Wll why don't you open up all the lanes so we don't have to wait arouind in line?"
The owner go flusterd and angry nbd said, waving his arms, "I have to have enough gas for my customers tommow."
I have heard others repeat this over the years. They ain't no fuel shortage.
Currently the first excuse I remember seeing in the paper was a comment about an Iraqi pipeline that was blown up, by guess who? Yep ,terrorists. and thereby interupting the flow of oil.,Of yeah what abiout 900 Kuwaiti oil fields on fire?
The market is imperfect. That aside, there isnt quite a fuel shortage, but even "respectable" newspapers are currently pointing out that there is a shortage of supply of oil. Arabia is pumping it as fas as it can, so is just about every other oil producing country, but the oil is being sold as fast as it can be pumped out the ground, mainly because China and INdia are developing and hoovering up as much oil as they can. The biggest hope for increased oil production is Iraq, which could increase production by maybe 2 or 3 million barrels per day if it wasnt getting attacked by terrorists and had a better oil infrastructure. Then over the next 5 to 10 years it could easily be producing over 5 million barrels per day.
The Kuwait oil feields fires at least had a chance to be put out and returned to produciton, and there wasnt such a squeeze on golbal oil production at that time.
The Kuwait oil feields fires at least had a chance to be put out and returned to produciton, and there wasnt such a squeeze on golbal oil production at that time.
Something fishy is going on.
Three observations:
First-
Before the war I payed about a dollar for a gallon of gas. A barrel of lt.crude was about 40$. Today a Barrel is what 50$? and a gallon of gas is over 2 dollars. What's wrong with this picture?
Second-
When crude oil prices were rising one day last year. I passed a station that had gas for say 1.75$, When I returned from my errand 10 minutes later the price was a nickle higher. No tanker refill. Same gas.
Third-
My state of Washington ran a story in the local news. It was regarding the state certification stickers on the pump, insuring valid weights and measures. The story confirmed:
1- 13% of the pumps were incorrectly judging the outflow/cost this year
2- only 1 out of 3 pumps were checked this year.
Therefore approximately 39% of Washington state's gas pumps aren't giving you what they say they are giving you.
Three observations:
First-
Before the war I payed about a dollar for a gallon of gas. A barrel of lt.crude was about 40$. Today a Barrel is what 50$? and a gallon of gas is over 2 dollars. What's wrong with this picture?
Second-
When crude oil prices were rising one day last year. I passed a station that had gas for say 1.75$, When I returned from my errand 10 minutes later the price was a nickle higher. No tanker refill. Same gas.
Third-
My state of Washington ran a story in the local news. It was regarding the state certification stickers on the pump, insuring valid weights and measures. The story confirmed:
1- 13% of the pumps were incorrectly judging the outflow/cost this year
2- only 1 out of 3 pumps were checked this year.
Therefore approximately 39% of Washington state's gas pumps aren't giving you what they say they are giving you.
We should get of the use of oil for more than financial reasons, why are we burning it still when there are other ways of heating our homes, and moving our cars, and generating our electricity. Everyone will save money if they lived in harmony with nature rather than destroying it. If we do run out of oil then we are forced to use the technologies that we already have, besides in thrity years a fuel cell car, or at least a hybrid car should be relatively reasonable in price. And the more advanced energy options and tech should have progressed even more by then if not there is something wrong with humanity, besides I like horse and buggy 
Ophiolite
Valued Senior Member
Here is the critical point, taken from this article http://www.peopleandplanet.net/doc.php?id=1462 :
"The halfway point to production of all the Ultimate Recoverable Reserves is a crucial milestone. Strong historical evidence for many oil basins shows that oil production peaks and starts to decline when about half the recoverable resource has been consumed. This is a matter of oil reservoir physics rather than production technology or economics.
The idea was first proposed by the United States oil geologist M King Hubbert who predicted, in 1956, using two estimates of that country's Oil Ultimate, that United States oil production would peak in the early 1970s. Hubbert was widely ridiculed by the oil industry, but was proved right when United States oil production peaked and began to fall in 1971."
Fluctuations in demand and in reserve estimates make it difficult to accurately predict this for the planet, but assessments range from 2005 to 2025. We have time, but only if we act responsibly. Gasoline at $1 or $2 a gallon is not responsible. In the UK we pay around $1.50 a litre. The rest of Europe is similar. Arguably this is too low. To put it crudely you can get your wrist slapped now or have your hand chopped off in thirty years.
"The halfway point to production of all the Ultimate Recoverable Reserves is a crucial milestone. Strong historical evidence for many oil basins shows that oil production peaks and starts to decline when about half the recoverable resource has been consumed. This is a matter of oil reservoir physics rather than production technology or economics.
The idea was first proposed by the United States oil geologist M King Hubbert who predicted, in 1956, using two estimates of that country's Oil Ultimate, that United States oil production would peak in the early 1970s. Hubbert was widely ridiculed by the oil industry, but was proved right when United States oil production peaked and began to fall in 1971."
Fluctuations in demand and in reserve estimates make it difficult to accurately predict this for the planet, but assessments range from 2005 to 2025. We have time, but only if we act responsibly. Gasoline at $1 or $2 a gallon is not responsible. In the UK we pay around $1.50 a litre. The rest of Europe is similar. Arguably this is too low. To put it crudely you can get your wrist slapped now or have your hand chopped off in thirty years.
Interesting discussion guys. When I went to school in the 40th, my teacher said the known world oil reserves would last 20 years. last week I read the oil sands in Alberta Canada alone contains over 900 billion barrels (3.5 times Saudi Arabia) and Venesuela is supposed to have a like amount. You go figure.
Ophiolite
Valued Senior Member
Your figures for Venezuela are wrong. (See Table 1, here http://www.daviesand.com/Perspectives/Forest_Products/Oil_Reserves/)apolo said:
Guthrie has noted the problem with the tar sands.
Your teacher was quite correct, but he, or she, was talking about known oil reserves . The calculations I referred to in my post above, and which are shown graphically in the link above, are based on known and projected reserves. The oil companies are pretty good on average at predicting that. Just like bookies.
The problem is real. The problem is close.
Due to some economic factors, I don't see a lot of differences on the oil price (euro/$, taxes of 75%). The only problem could be the lake of oil in the next 20 years... but I don't worry too much about it : the car constructors will "find" a way to solve it otherwise they would lost their market (hydrogen, electric cars...) and for the other ways to use oil/petrol we already know how to replace it (plastic...). While there's petrol, we will use it, then we will change (and maybe that it will be better for the Earth!).
Insanely Elite said:
I've heard this complaint several times before. It's one that is not often understood unless you've studied the market or ran a market purchase driven business of your own. Let me explain it in analogy.
You run a business that delivers blocks to customers. You do not make the blocks yourself, but are more of a middleman. When you open up shop in the morning you're selling blocks that cost you $1.00 each based upon yesterdays cost of acquiring them. So you send of your deliverymen selling the blocks for $2.00, giving you $1.00 profit on each block you sell.
Around noon, your supplier calls and tells you that the cost of blocks will change on your next shipment to $1.50 per block. At this point you have a practical decision to make upon the return of your deliveryman. You know that the cost of running business (purchasing blocks from your supplier) will go up for shipments coming in today to be sold tomorrow. Will you continue to sell the blocks for $2.00, and personally finance your shipments from your supplier that will come in today, or will you raise the price by $0.50 for your next customer today? Doing so will allow you to keep less excess capital on hand to handle such price changes as well as allowing you to charge a cheaper price to your customers in general because you'll be able to keep the selling price closer to Marginal Cost on average.
This may seem unfair, but the more you think about it, the more it makes sense. Hope that helps!
-Will
You guys pay a dollar? in the UK we have to pay about 6 dollars a gallon! A point about Venezuala oil, its not used for petrol. Its far to heavy in terms of distillates. But on the bright side the UK announced yesterday a massive new field is to be opened up on the west coast of the Shetland Isles. The harsh fact about oil is that the third world want some now as well. China and India are causing a strain on supply that the oil producers cannot keep up demand with, along with providing the industrialised nations as well. The oil market gets the wobbles and along with disruption from the middle east the price starts to spiral.There is plenty of oil in the ground, its just the cost if getting it out. How long? who knows, i've read between 50 and 100 years before oil starts to run out.
Ophiolite
Valued Senior Member
Slotty, please try to avoid making irrelevant points. It is of secondary importance when the oil runs out. From a global economic perspective it is the time when production peaks that is important. That is when prices spiral and the potential for global recession is great, unless we have alternative energy resources coming on-line in quantity.slotty said:
That production peak is not fifty or one hundred years away, it is within the next twenty five years, quite possibly within the next ten. The problem is real, the problem is serious, the problem is now.
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