Part of the strategy was to threaten the wealth of Putin's power base so they'd threaten to withdraw their support.
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Part of the strategy was to threaten the wealth of Putin's power base so they'd threaten to withdraw their support.
Has it worked? Is Putin powerless to discipline his critics if they get upset? Read the stories about Russian soldiers being forbidden from telling their own wives that they're being sent off to fight; it seems pretty clear to me that Putin will do as he pleases with or without the sanctions, so there's nothing to lose by shutting him down at the earliest opportunity rather than waiting. Any agreement or compromise that results in normal relations without a full restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity constitutes a victory for fascism and a functional template for future land grabs.
I have no doubt Putin is willing to let Russia bear full brunt of Western sanctions. But that doesn't mean he wants to. Putin is trying to minimized and delay those sanctions sanctions for as long as possible. Because sanctions will impede his ability to rule and wage war.
Yeah, I agree. The West needs to stop pussy footing around and go straight to maximum sanctions. As long as Putin has the capacity to wage war on neighbouring states he Will. So the West needs to degrade Putin's capacity to wage war on neighboring states.
Putin will not stop his aggression until he is physically unable to wage war. But our European colleagues are reluctant to do what needs to be done...on a number of fronts. And that is why 6 years after the liquidity crisis their economies are still lagging.
Physically unable to wage war? do extrapolate soldier.
LOL , what you don't understand English? You might want to look up the definition of soldier while you are at it.
I am asking the specific political scenario, that precludes any military and economical intervention, you would like to see within the current Russian political party
What you have not been paying attention? Sanctions will degrade Russian military capability. Russia doesn't have the technical or manufacturing capability to build the materials Putin's army needs to invade his neighbors. So over time, sanctions will weaken not only the Russian state but its army as well. Parts wear out, access to new technologies is restricted. So eventually, the Russian Army is a much less a foe and less a threat to neighboring states. Meanwhile while, Ukraine and neighboring Russian states will be beefing up their military capability with better training and new equipment from the West. Putin has clearly demonstrated the need for neighboring states to build up their armies and political alliances.
Putin has succeeded in getting NATO member states to beef up NATO military presence and ability. NATO countries are now, as we write, strengthening their military ability and preparing for a war with Mother Russia. That wasn't the case before Putin began invading, occupying and annexing neighboring states. Putin has made his intentions very clear. Now it is time for the West to react. And former Soviet client states have taken notice. It seems Russia's neighbors are none too thrilled with the prospect of being a Russian vassal state again. If Putin persists, I can see a time where NATO troops will be patrolling the streets of Moscow, assuming Moscow survives and that is a big if. No one from the West wants war, but it will happen if Putin doesn't restrain his ego and begin acting in the interests of the Russian people.
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More sanctions were imposed against Mother Russia today.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29154488
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29154488
About frigging time, hopefully it starts making a difference. No letting the foot off the gas pedal though, and if Russia threatens nuclear suicide over it, all the more reason to keep ramping up the pressure.
The sanctions will not stop Russia and will just cause it to switch to participation with China/India/South America more than ever. Those countries who do not support the current escalation of sanctions on Russia are starting to mount up as parallel sanctions are imposed by Russia on those countries. The countries who have expressed disagreenment with the new sanctions are: Slovakia, Czech Republic, Austria, Switzerland to some degree, Finland to some degree (they want more business). The further escalation of sanctions will not only cause an economical distability with European Union but will threaten the Union alltogether.
Ukraine on the other hand will experience the worst winter in its lifetime, under sweet patronage of US of course. With mounting budget deficit and delay of Euro integration, their future alongside cozy US will come to an end very soon.
Ukraine on the other hand will experience the worst winter in its lifetime, under sweet patronage of US of course. With mounting budget deficit and delay of Euro integration, their future alongside cozy US will come to an end very soon.
If that's such a great economic option for Russia, why wasn't Father Putin developing those ties sooner instead of trading with the West? But that's fine, trade more with China and give the West more reasons to cut off ties with yet another fascist regime. The US will be sure to close down as many loopholes as it can, so if you think the majority of India or South America will pick Russia as its exclusive trade partner instead of the US and Europe, then best of luck to you.
The Union is even more threatened by allowing its sovereign neighbours to be gobbled up by drunk Russian fascists.
This winter will be even worse for them if they allow idiots like you to stumble around on their soil. Go ahead and push Ukraine further into the arms of the US and Canada, we're always happy to have more long-term customers in the pipeline.
Yes, who would want to deal with financial constraints when you have the easy option of permanently giving away sovereign land to drunk imperial warlords? Soon the US will see that Mother Russia only faked its decline to appear stupid and incompetent, so America would let its guard down and allow the invasion of New York to proceed as planned... Muahahahaha *puke* muahahaha!
If that were possible, why did Putin wait so long and only under duress turn to China, India and South America? Do you really think China is willing to sacrifice trading with 2/3’s of the world’s economy in order to trade with Russia which accounts for less than 3% of world GDP? If you do, you are delusional. China is many things, but dumb is not one of them. Russia is basically a one horse economy, oil and natural gas. Oil and natural gas account for about three quarters of Russian exports.
Two, some of those countries you mentioned do support the sanctions. Finland as an example, favors sanctions, but it wants to wait to impose the latest round of sanctions in order to see how well the truce fares – which isn’t well. Europe’s economy isn’t faring very well at the moment, but even so, they are willing to impose economic sanctions on Mother Russia for Putin’s actions in Ukraine. The West is fully aware the sanctions they have imposed and will impose on Russia will hurt their own economies. But they know full well the consequences of Putin’s aggression and that is why they are willing to impose these sanctions. The costs of failing to act, failing to impose sanctions on Russia, far outweigh the costs of sanctions. No one in the West wants to sanction Russia. But the costs of failing to impose sanctions far outweigh the costs of imposing those sanctions. The last time we had a fascist leader in Europe playing this playbook, 60 million people died and Europe and Japan laid in ruin.
Three, Putin’s retaliatory sanctions are largely inconsequential for the West. Putin’s sanctions on the West are strictly for domestic play…kind of like his shirtless photos and pictures with sedated wild animals.
Four, the West has yet to get really tough on the sanction front. The West has given Putin many options to turn back. When and if the West decides to bar Russia from SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication), things will get really difficult if not impossible for Russia to conduct any kind of foreign trade with China or anyone else for that matter. Russia would have to resort to physically exchanging currency because Russia would be locked out of the international banking and payments system.
Ukraine is a free nation. Putin, Russia and people like you need to at some point come to the realization that Ukraine or any of the former Soviet vassal states are NOT Russian patrimony. They are Free states, free people and free to choose how they wish to govern themselves and how they want to live. Russia (i.e. Soviet Union) once before tried to starve people into submission (e.g. Stalin’s blockade of Berlin), it didn’t work then and it likely will not work this time around either.
Instead of worrying about Ukraine, you Russians should be worrying about their faltering and shrinking economy.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gregsat...obamas-sanctions-will-destroy-vladimir-putin/
The US Treasury Department announced further sanctions today on seven Russian officials and 17 Russian companies, including Igor Sechin, the head of Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil company, several financial institutions and a number of firms connected to the energy sector. These will include visa bans, asset freezes and further restrictions on trade.
When the first round of sanctions were imposed, the Russians largely laughed them off and critics of the administration pounced. How could visa bans and asset freezes affect the calculus of Putin’s most ardent supporters? What effect will it have on the ones don’t travel extensively the West or keep assets in foreign banks?
Yet this line of reasoning betrays a deep misunderstanding about the purpose and effects of the sanctions. They are, in fact, a new breed of financial warfare that the Treasury department has been honing since 9/11, which rely on new legislation such as Section 311 of the Patriot Act and “know your customer” banking rules.
Originally, these rules were designed to lock terrorists out of the global financial system. As Juan Zarate, one of architects of the new techniques, explains in his book Treasury’s War:
“The point was not necessarily to freeze assets in US banks—though that was a benefit—but instead to use the designations to make it harder for individuals who were financing terrorists to access the formal financial system. Our analyses therefore focused on the networks of actors and institutions providing the financial backbone to the terrorist enterprises.
Before long, the new techniques were expanded beyond counterterrorism and deployed against nation states, such as North Korea and Iran, to great effect. When coordinated with allies these are even more effective, but are powerful even if pursued unilaterally.
That doesn’t mean that the sanctions will deter Putin—like any lunatic out on a ledge, the decision to jump is his alone—but his actions will incur ever increasing costs that will undermine his already weak regime.
To understand how the sanctions work, let’s look at the case of Vladimir Yakunin, Putin’s close friend and the head of Russian Railways. He told the Financial Times, “I did not intend to travel to the US. I have no assets. So it does not bother me at all.” Even if we assume he’s telling the truth about his assets (which is doubtful), the sanctions still hit hard.
While asset freezes and visa bans are somewhat of a nuisance—Yakunin’s children live abroad—the real strength of the sanctions lie in the fact that they are designations. In effect, they are the financial equivalent of leprosy, discouraging financial institutions from touching the targeted entity in any way.
What many people don’t realize is just how pervasive the US financial system is. If, for example, Mr. Yakunin wanted to buy a nice vacation house in Dubai. He’d have to pay for it somehow. Yet to transfer the money, he would need to use a bank and that’s where things get difficult. Every financial institution needs a correspondent banking relationship with a US entity in order to do business.
The penalties for defying US Treasury designations can be quite severe—HSBC was fined $1.9 billion—and if the offending bank wants to continue to do business in the US, it complies. In effect, once you are designated, you are cut off from the international financial system.
Further, the sanctions apply not only people like Yakunin, but also entities they control. In his case, Bank Rossiya was also designated. So it can no longer do business with any bank that deals in dollars either. In fact, they can’t deal with any entity that does business in the US, which is why Visa and MasterCard MA -0.5% cut off service.
The new sanctions tighten the noose even further because companies in the financial and energy sectors are now being targeted aggressively. That means that their ability to do business internationally will be greatly curtailed. The EU will be announcing their own sanctions later today, magnifying the impact.
And it doesn’t stop there. Because the sanctions are designed to be incremental, nobody knows for sure who will show up on the list next. So the entire Russian economy is effectively being isolated in a much more effective way than it would be under a traditional sanctions regime. It is not specific activity that is being proscribed, but financial relationships themselves.
The effects are already being felt. Russian corporations can’t roll over their loans and have had to cancel IPO’s. The Russian government has had to call off all but two bond auctions since the beginning of the crisis. This adds to capital flight, puts pressure on the Ruble and creates inflation. At the same time, it limits investment in the country and lowers income.
Recognizing the serious peril the Russian economy finds itself in, Standard & Poor’s recently downgraded Russia to one level above junk status, which will lead to further capital outflows as bond funds reallocate their portfolio’s to manage risk. And the crises is still young, things will only go downhill from here for Putin’s regime.
While it’s true that the nationalist fervor in the wake of the Ukraine crisis have increased Vladimir Putin’s approval ratings, it is doubtful that will last. The May holidays—a big deal in Russia—are coming up and many Russians will have to alter their travel plans. Others will find that their credit cards don’t work. Foreign adventures become decidedly less attractive when they inhibit the ability to enjoy your life.
When Russians arrive back home, they will find things only getting worse. The Russian economy is expected to fall into recession this quarter and Putin’s continued adventures will only get more expensive. Before long, imported goods will become scarce and social payments will need to be cut. Russians will begin to remember what the Soviet Union was really like.
In the years to come, decreased gas exports to Europe and a softening market for oil could cost the Russian economy as much as $100 billion annually—roughly 5% of GDP. Putin promised a new stronger Russia, respected throughout the world. Now he is delivering an impoverished pariah state.
Perhaps most importantly, it’s hard to see how Putin will prevail. Ukraine is a big place and occupying it would take hundreds of thousands of troops—something Russia can’t afford financially or militarily. There is, in fact, very little he can do besides make threatening noises while Obama’s sanctions erode the Russian economy.
And that means trouble. Running an aggressive, authoritarian state takes money. You need a hefty military budget, a large internal security service, lots of money sloshing around to buy the loyalty of officials and extensive social benefits to keep the populace docile. Even a brutal, corrupt ruler needs internal support.
The truth is that Putin is a KGB operative to the core and, as David Paul recently pointed out in an excellent article in the Huffington Post, the KGB has been losing since the 1970’s. He has rather sloppily blundered into the same mistakes his predecessors made in Afghanistan decades ago.
As strange as it may seem, Vladimir Putin, the bare-chested, horse riding tiger hunter, is about to be taken down by a bunch of accountants.” - Greg Satell, Forbes
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Ukraine approves the trade deal with Europe and claims Russia/Putin has withdrawn most of its troops from Ukraine territory. This is good news.
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/uk...es-e-u-deal-triggered-russia-conflict-n204266
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/uk...es-e-u-deal-triggered-russia-conflict-n204266
The weird thing to me is that even if the Ukraine once again became a part of a greater Russia they are still left with the fundamental problem of people seeking liberty, competitive market forces and the desire that all men have to better themselves.
Annexing the Ukraine will only further highlight the deficiency of the old Soviet philosophy of over control, over regulation, over censorship and generally the oppression of freedom.
So why do they wish to do it?
What's the point of repeating the same old mistakes?
So they take the Ukraine and "10 years" or so from now they will have to take it again and so on...futility barks loud!!!
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sculptor
Valued Senior Member
Just a friendly "heads up":
I'd a friend who was Ukrainian. He would get a tad irate if/when anyone said "the Ukraine".---" You mean like the russia, the france, the germany...etc...
You are correct though, only a complete fool would want to try and integrate Ukraine and dissident Ukrainians into Russia.
Oops.. I see your point. I was referring to the (a) definition more than the nation.. my mistake..
Well as they say, there is no fool like an old fool.
I do hope their soon will be some sort of monitoring station in the region, whilst I do believe Russia is involved in this conflict I notice a distinct lack of proof and in trutht both parties lie and everybody is biased to believe either one side or the other. Drones might actually help in removing the bias and honnesly I don't believe either side would dare to move if they believe they will be monitored.
sculptor
Valued Senior Member
This thing was badly played by the west. For all the posturing and saber rattling, nothing worthwhile came of it.
The idea of having NATO military exercises within Ukraine was the absolute epitome of stupidity. (I know, lets make Ukraine a battleground.) idiocy by any other name would still be as stupid.
What has the west, the us, and nato accomplished (aside from demonstrating their petty squabbles to the world.)?
Our leaders have pretty much convinced Ukraine that we will do nothing to help nor protect them, just like the west did nothing when Stalin starved millions of them in the '30s.
The idea of having NATO military exercises within Ukraine was the absolute epitome of stupidity. (I know, lets make Ukraine a battleground.) idiocy by any other name would still be as stupid.
What has the west, the us, and nato accomplished (aside from demonstrating their petty squabbles to the world.)?
Our leaders have pretty much convinced Ukraine that we will do nothing to help nor protect them, just like the west did nothing when Stalin starved millions of them in the '30s.
Well Ukraine and Western powers have long sought independent observers and have had independent observers in the country. But Putin had his thugs imprison them, rough them up and expelled them from land occupied by Russian forces.