My 2 cents on "Mind Ramblings" by KeithW
Normally I would agree with the supposition presented in the article, but today, I want to be difficult and would like to give you a pessimistic view, due to the fact that I am in the middle of a project that requires "emergent complexity" applications and I am frustrated.
It is true that human technology has been increasing in complexity. However, at the same time, human development has not moved very far. It is the human development that will put a dent on the author's utopia. From my experience between 1973 and 2003:
*** I could not get rid of the blank space below , let me know if there is a trick to it
<table cellpadding="2" cellspacing="2" border="1" width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr valign="Top">
<td>Item .....................$Cost -></td>
<td valign="Top">1973<br>
</td>
<td valign="Top">2003<br>
</td>
<td valign="Top">2033<br>
</td>
<td valign="Top">2063<br>
</td>
<td valign="Top">2093<br>
</td>
</tr>
<tr valign="Top">
<td valign="Top">Standard Car<br>
</td>
<td valign="Top">3,000<br>
</td>
<td valign="Top">30,000<br>
</td>
<td valign="Top">300,000<br>
</td>
<td valign="Top">3 million<br>
</td>
<td valign="Top">30 million<br>
</td>
</tr>
<tr valign="Top">
<td valign="Top">Food per month<br>
</td>
<td valign="Top">200<br>
</td>
<td valign="Top">1,000<br>
</td>
<td valign="Top">5,000<br>
</td>
<td valign="Top">10,000<br>
</td>
<td valign="Top">50,000<br>
</td>
</tr>
<tr valign="Top">
<td valign="Top">Home<br>
</td>
<td valign="Top"> 20,000<br>
</td>
<td valign="Top">200,000<br>
</td>
<td valign="Top">2 million<br>
</td>
<td valign="Top">20 million<br>
</td>
<td valign="Top">200 million<br>
</td>
</tr>
<tr valign="Top">
<td valign="Top">Electronics<br>
</td>
<td valign="Top">3,000<br>
</td>
<td valign="Top">3,000<br>
</td>
<td valign="Top">3,000<br>
</td>
<td valign="Top">3,000<br>
</td>
<td valign="Top">3,000<br>
</td>
</tr>
<tr valign="Top">
<td valign="Top">Income<br>
</td>
<td valign="Top">15,000<br>
</td>
<td valign="Top">150,000<br>
</td>
<td valign="Top">0 (unemployed)<br>
</td>
<td valign="Top">0 (unemployed<br>
</td>
<td valign="Top">0 (unemployed)<br>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br>
***<br>
As you can see, if robots will take over, then there will be widespread unemployment, after all, that is the basis of the article that we will not work for food.
Robots
Today, we use extensive amount of robots and automation in industrial production, from mining raw material to making chemicals, oil and cars. Have you noticed that the price of the cars have gone down any? In fact, the cars you bought in 1973 can be paid on credit in 24 months. Today, it is 60 months. Before you know it, you will have to get a 30 year loan to pay for a car that will only last 10 years. We can put a man on the moon with the old technology, but we have been tinkering with fuel cells and photocells for 15 years without much success. Is the technology so difficult or is it human greed that will not allow us to get there? While the electronic performance is going up, the mechanical items price is also going up. We have technology today such that a lawn mower can self propel and mow your yard. But it will cost too much to justify such an investment. C3PO robots are possible in 2033 but will not happen for many reasons.
Prosthesis
Electronic prosthesis leading to augmenting your body with electromechanical parts are possible. But that vision is silo based similar to our government with many departments that rarely collaborate. The theory assumes that technology will advance faster in this area than genetics. That is not true at all. Once you understand the biochemistry of gene , it is a single subject that can be improved upon at a very fast rate where as electromechanical devices are much more difficult to design to solve highly complex systems. So, my bet will be in the gene science and bioinformatics.
Computing Power
There is a dark side to computing power and advancement in technology. By 2050, we will still have the Moslem fundamentalists (or any religion) who will despise the quality of life and utopians society we are trying to create through technology. So they will use this technology to create advanced small footprint bombs (nuclear, chemical, biological) to blow up New York. If you think 911 caused this much damage to economy, imagine the whole New York - the financial center of the planet, gone. The aftermath will be devastating to the planet and not just USA.
In this pessimistic view, we are plunged into a barbaric society with science gone wild. This view ends with an automated global nuclear war precipitated by the power vested with one person somewhere on the globe.
Those who would like to portray the future vision always forget the multidimensional nature of reality. They talk about "emergent complexity" but base their vision on extrapolation of a very few threads. The future is what the future will bring. With good leadership, we may be able to avert any disaster and reach the utopia we seek. The universe always shows you the path, it is upto you to take it.