Military Events in Syria and Iraq Thread #4

[Schmelzer]

The question which points the Tiger forces have reached in Raqqa remains unclear, if not to say becomes even more unclear. What seems more or less confirmed now is that the Tiger forces have reached the Euphrat valley East of Raqqa. What today has been announced is that a village Dakhela, which is East of Dalhah (which was announced to be taken yesterday) has been taken. the other place which has been announced to be taken today was an oil field near Al-Sabkhawi.

PS: Today the Syrian army has taken a village named "Salam Aleikum".

Aleikum Salam.

 

[Schmelzer]

The operation around the Syria-Lebanon border advances with good success, the actual situation is in the following map:

Here are several parties involved. On the terrorist side, there is Daesh, and Al Qaida (Nusra, HTS or however named). The fighting goes agains Al Qaida. The area marked by a red line was the original situation before the offensive started. That means, the larger part of the Al Qaida controlled territory has already been taken. On the governments side, there is the Lebanese army, the Syrian army, and Hesbollah. Judging from this map, Hesbollah seems to do the main job, but this may be because the guy who paints the map supports Hesbollah.
Such a coordination of many forces from different parts of a border is very problematic, which was the main reason why these terrorist enclaves have survived up to now. One would hope that after finishing Al Qaida, they continue to fight also Daesh. But I doubt, all the reports are only about fighting Al Qaida. Probably there is some ceasefire with the Daesh part. We will see.

Another interesting map is a screenshot from the briefing from the Russian MD:

The news announced at this briefing was that the gas station T2 has been taken. The Syrian army is now around the meeting point of the Palmyra-T3-T2 road with the road along the Iraqi border. Some 27 km or so remaining to Abu Kemal, the Euphrat border crossing with Iraq.

The US army, together with a few local "FSA" guys, holds the Al Tanf border station and the 50 km around, I think this situation will be left so until Daesh is finished (which is more important), then we will see. Essentially they do nothing but to prevent the use of the best highway Damaskus - Bagdad, just to annoy the drivers who have to travel around. If the US drives away and stops to support those FSA guys, that's all, if taken alone they will simply run away.

The quality of the Russian MO briefing maps are a difficult issue. They usually differ from the maps which are, so to say, Twitter consent or so. The advantage is that the guys have the real information. The question is how much of the real information are they willing to share? My impression is that they are quite conservative in their maps.

 

[Schmelzer]

The map I have posted in #139 seemed to be not as wrong as I said in #140. Who really controls Ukairishah is unclear, some say both control some parts of it, some it has been given to SAA, and may be not really that important. As the news of taking the Itihad university (see #138), as of the taking of the two villages came not from the Tiger forces, but from some local tribal forces. These tribal forces are local Arabs. So are many of the forces paid by the US to join the Kurdish SDF. So, expect that they are loyal only to the dollars paid, not to the wishes of the American deep state. There have been rumors that some of these forces have simply run away, others have switched sides from Kurdish SDF to mainly Arabic SAA once they appeared in the region.

It seems clear that the forces on the ground are interested in fighting Daesh, and in avoiding conflict between them. An interesting article about a coordination center between the Syrian army and the Kurds has appeared in the Independent.

Actually, the Syrian army has taken Huweiyat Shinan, the next greater village. So, whoever owns the two villages, that the Syrian army has reached the Euphrat there is fact.

 

[Schmelzer]

In Arsal, near the border Lebanon-Syria, there is a ceasefire, Hatesh (Al Qaida) is finished there, some last fighters will be, as usual in Syrian, but now also working in Lebanon, transferred to Idlib.

The advances against Daesh continue, the Tiger forces in Raqqa have taken several places in the desert South of the Euphrat:

The standard Tiger forces technique, going around the areas with a lot of population, but leaving Daesh a way to run away, so that the places with a lot of population can be easily liberated.
South of this, on the way from Palmyra to Deir Ezzor, the fight for the last big village on the road, Sukhna, has started. The Syrian army controls the mountains around it and has reached the outscirts of the village.

 

[Schmelzer]

The Tiger forces continue to advance in the desert South of the Euphrat. The have taken today the Wadi Ubayd oil field and an oil pumping station South of Al Jaber:

Again, the interesting question is how many Daesh fighters will remain, and how many leave the region before the Tiger forces cut the M4, as they will in short time.

Near Sukhnah, some progress happened too, but Sukhnah itself is yet controlled by Daesh.

The road from Sukhna toward the North-West, which has now been cut, is the greatest road from the Daesh-controlled Western part around Akerbat and main part, so this is important in itself by making the Daesh communications more problematic. This does not mean that much, there are yet some smaller roads through the desert. Following this road would be another interesting direction of advance, it would thread to cut the Western part completely.

 

[Schmelzer]

The progress of the Tiger forces continues, they have reached today the Deir Ezzor governorate:

And in the evening there appeared news that they also have started to clean the region in the North, taking four villages:

Looks like Daesh has not left many defenders there. And it looks like they were simply following the road, and may be interested in taking control of the South part of the bridge over the Euphrat.

 

[Schmelzer]

The region encircled yesterday is in the process of being cleaned from Daesh, it looks like not much has been left there from Daesh.

The following map is interesting because it marks a quite large region of joint control by SAA and SDF.

 

[Schmelzer]

The whole encircled region along the Euphrat river has now been cleared, says https://www.almasdarnews.com/articl...owns-villages-isis-southern-raqqa-map-update/

This map is quite conservative - there have been enough reliable claims about the Syrian forces having entered Deir Ezzor governate, where the border is marked with the white dotted line. And the border with the Kurds is along the Euphrat river, not the straight line given there.

There is very slow progress, but nonetheless progress in Sukhna too:

But with the mountain in the West of the town under Syrian army control the town will be indefensible.

 

[Schmelzer]

It seems, Sukhna has been taken by the Syrian army. The official confirmation by the Syrian MOD is yet missed, but there are a lot of twits, and with https://www.almasdarnews.com/articl...-stronghold-al-sukhnah-east-homs-countryside/ and https://twitter.com/Syria_Hezb_Iran/status/894130612742873088 confirming it this seems sufficiently certain. This is a really important victory of the Syrian army, it opens the way to Deir Ezzor from Palmyra and endangers the last connections between the Aqerbat part controlled by Daesh in the West and the main part in the East. It already cuts the greatest line of connection:

One can now guess what will be done next: Going North to Fardeh to encircle the Akerbat part, or going East to Deir Ezzor. I would say it makes sense, after taking the nearby gas fields, to go North first.

The advance of the Tiger forces along the Euphrat continues too, today again several villages have been listed as liberated: Al-Hardan, Salem A-Hamad, Al-‘Atshanah, Maqlat Kabeera, Maqlat Saghira and Al-Da’ama. These are villages in a region around a bridge, probably (I'm not sure, but this was posted today too, and "al Fourat" is simply another version of writing Euphrat) this bridge:

 

[Schmelzer]

Today ISIS started some counterattacks, both without success. One in Deir Ezzor, https://www.almasdarnews.com/articl...e-deir-ezzor-losing-key-stronghold-east-homs/ another one North of Sukhna https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/isils-counter-offensive-near-sukhnah-ends-disaster/ Counterattacks immediately after taking a place are dangerous, because there was no time yet to prepare the defenses,and successful counterattacks are something happening very often in Syria. But here this has failed.

There are some small advances around the Aqerbat part. And again the Tiger forces have taken several villages near the Euphrat, so that they are now close to Ma'adan, the most important town after Raqqa on this part of the Euphrat:

The Lebanese army is fighting now near the Syrian border against the ISIS-held part.

 

[Schmelzer]

It appears that there was yet, over the last days, some Daesh resistance in Sukhna - and some part of the town were not even tried to control, because Daesh had yet control of some part of the surrounding mountains, so that entering these parts made sense only after clearing these surroundings completely. So, the official confirmation about the clearing of Sukhna came only yesterday.

There was a successful a night air drop operation of the Syrian army 20 km behind the lines of Daesh. http://sana.sy/en/?p=111578 As the result, the Syrian army has taken Al Kadir, which is 6 km North of the Al Qom (or al Kawm) oasis, and claims to have destroyed a large number of various vehicles. This is quite interesting because this is nothing the Syrian army is known to know how to do it.

So it looks like after the liberation of Sukhna the aim is to split the Daesh forces into two part along the direct line Al Qom - Al Taybah.

 

[timojin]

It appears that there was yet, over the last days, some Daesh resistance in Sukhna - and some part of the town were not even tried to control, because Daesh had yet control of some part of the surrounding mountains, so that entering these parts made sense only after clearing these surroundings completely. So, the official confirmation about the clearing of Sukhna came only yesterday.

There was a successful a night air drop operation of the Syrian army 20 km behind the lines of Daesh. http://sana.sy/en/?p=111578 As the result, the Syrian army has taken Al Kadir, which is 6 km North of the Al Qom (or al Kawm) oasis, and claims to have destroyed a large number of various vehicles. This is quite interesting because this is nothing the Syrian army is known to know how to do it.

So it looks like after the liberation of Sukhna the aim is to split the Daesh forces into two part along the direct line Al Qom - Al Taybah.

Is this true ?
In the United States, a global network to finance activities of the Islamic State terrorist organisation through eBay was disclosed. Such an operation can be regarded as progress in the process for the US to abjure its strategy in Syria. Or does it look like efforts to hide traces of cooperation between US officials and terrorists?"


"No, the Americans have decided to break off all relations with ISIL. Certain representatives in the CIA had tried to manipulate terrorist organisation in the past, but the USA has ended it on state and political levels. A for the arrested American citizen, the FBI was supposed to arrest him long before it happened. The US administration has decided to retreat from the Middle East and from Syria - the Americans have realised that they have lost all that. There is no one left in the region, whom they could rely on."

 

[Schmelzer]

The info seems to come from http://www.pravdareport.com/world/asia/syria/11-08-2017/138386-usa_middle_east_syria-0/ which for the news about the disclosed eBay network they refer to Wall Street Journal, and there seems no reason to doubt about this. The comment made by Yakov Kedmi that the US really broke off all relations with IS is more questionable. Kedmi is a popular media figure in Russia, what he says usually makes sense, but if it is really trustworthy? Not sure. It would be good news if true.

 

[timojin]

The info seems to come from http://www.pravdareport.com/world/asia/syria/11-08-2017/138386-usa_middle_east_syria-0/ which for the news about the disclosed eBay network they refer to Wall Street Journal, and there seems no reason to doubt about this. The comment made by Yakov Kedmi that the US really broke off all relations with IS is more questionable. Kedmi is a popular media figure in Russia, what he says usually makes sense, but if it is really trustworthy? Not sure. It would be good news if true.

Let me ask this are we supplying the contra the Syrian government ?

 

[Schmelzer]

Let me ask this are we supplying the contra the Syrian government ?

Of course, this was the quite official policy of the US during all the Obama time.

The only question was which anti-Assad forces have been paid, supplied with weapons and training, and which not. Officially, ISIS was never supported - but many observers think that they have been supported undercover in various ways. Officially, Al Qaida (Al Nusra, today named Hatesh) has not been supported too. But here is much less doubt that they have been directly supported, and the diplomatic and media support was quite open: There was a big diplomatic and media campaign against Russia because it fighted against Al Qaida forces. A la "they do not fight IS, but only moderate rebels" and so on.

But then there were all the other, less famous jihadist groups which were supported officially. Among them a lot of jihadist fanatics proudly naming themselves "worse than ISIS" and distributing a video where they murder a child by cutting his head. This created a minor media scandal, because even after this the US refused to stop to support them. https://twitter.com/Souria4Syrians/status/761248812254031872

 

[Schmelzer]

The main regions of operations against Daesh (IS) can be seen from this map:

There has been large progress today in both directions of cutting the IS-held territory into parts. In the center, the Tiger forces have taken the Al Kawm oasis, yesterday the Northern part, today the remaining part in the South of it. Now the remaining distance is 30 km. But the main transport line through the village Al Tayba is in the middle of it, and protected by some mountains visible even on this map.
Even more serious progress has been made in the Western direction, South of Ithriyah. Here, the actual gains during the last two days are on this map:

This is serious because it means, if correct, that the Syrian army would be 1-2 km away from cutting the main road connecting the Western and Eastern parts. There would remain some 20 km to close the connection completely, but without a good road, through mountains.
Some progress has been mentioned from other fronts too. In particular, the village Al Baajat has been taken by the Syrian army.

Near the Syria/Lebanon border the clearing of the Al Qaida controlled areas has been finished, the remaining fighters have been transferred from Lebanon to the Syrian Idlib. So, the border is now free of Al Qaida. It remains to destroy the remaining IS enclave in this region. Small progress of the Syrian army also from East Ghouta, but, as usual, only small - a few buildings or so.

Then there has been, again, an increase of IS attacks against the encircled Deir Ezzor. The explanation is that these are forces who have left the Aqerbat region before it becomes encircled, as well as those fighting near Sukhna.

 

[CptBork]

The info seems to come from http://www.pravdareport.com/world/asia/syria/11-08-2017/138386-usa_middle_east_syria-0/ which for the news about the disclosed eBay network they refer to Wall Street Journal, and there seems no reason to doubt about this.

There's always good reasons to doubt Russian state media, comrade. Even when they claim to cite a western news source, they love to bungle the details and cite individuals as if they represent the opinions and actions of millions. Only an insecure Russian ultranationalist like yourself would think that a majority of Syrians support a government that needs to hire a foreign air force and 100,000 Russian and Iranian-paid militants just to retain control over half of its territory.

 

[Schmelzer]

There's always good reasons to doubt Russian state media, comrade.

Not only Russian state media, all media.
But the news about the disclosed eBay network has no obvious propaganda value, neither for Pravda nor for Wall Street Journal. Moreover, it does not hurt be at all if it is faked, thus, not worth to spend time for checks. So I see no reason to doubt.

BTW, let's see if we have, in near future, to open a thread titled "Military events in the US", given that papers like Washington Post write things like "Start throwing rocks." https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...efeat-white-supremacy-only-direct-action-can/

Whatever, the Syrian army continues its progress against Daesh, on all directions toward cutting the IS-held region into parts. In the Western part, it has been claimed that Sawanat Husayah has been taken from the South:

From the Northern direction, some places have been taken East of what has been reached before, so the frontline from the North looks like in the following map (where Sawanat Husayah claimed to be taken is yet far away in the North of Al Shaer):

The remaining distance before connection is claimed to be around 10 km. In the other, more Eastern direction the Tiger forces have taken a lot of points West of the Al Kawm oasis.

 

[Schmelzer]

Now already several sources claim that the first, Western cut Al Shaer - Itriya has been established:

 

[Schmelzer]

A lot of progress on different fronts against Daesh (ISIS)

If you compare the two maps, you see a large region East of Itriya which has been taken by the Syrian army, up to Taibah, which was on the last road from the middle part toward Deir Ezzor, so that de facto the middle part is encircled too. What is on the way yet is a quite serious mountain, Jabal Dahek. I doubt there are many Daesh forces remaining inside the middle part.

Another serious progress is that Humanymah, at the East of this map, has been finally taken. Another progress is not shown on this map - the Aqerbat pocket is shrinking too:

And a lot of progress also around the Daesh pocket at the Lebanon-Syria border: