HectorDecimal
Registered Senior Member
This is like my 21st birthday. I tried to post this last night while the sun was still sporting a significant flare, but was told I needed to have 20 posts before I could provide links. Here goes with post #21
For my first post here, this is pretty long, still I'd rather give you all enough to bite into with the first course than an appetiser through a slow server.
This is to gain some input from those in related scientific disciplines about the mysteries of Yellowstone Park Caldera. We have known since the 60's that it is a supervolcano. The natural scenario of it being a basin was known since the 1870's. From what I can piece together, it would seem the end of the Maunder Minimum wakened not only the sun's activity but possibly the supervolcano as well. I'd hope by some chance there are some who actually work at the YVO who can answer some questions about the age of the geysers, inclusive of the methodology for such determination. If it can't be truly determined, just say so.
Some of my research dives into the planet's geological/geomagnetic history include Yellowstone's history. Since it's discovery some 200 years after the Maunder Minimum or "little ice age," the caldera had been seen to have geysers. I'm of the opinion that it is not impossible for those leaks to be the earliest stages of fracture, thus eruption and caused by a thaw after such a long deep freeze.. We know very little about supervolcanoes, but if it has an area about 750 times that of Mt. Saint Helens, the lava dome is more plate-like so prone toward further fracturing in the case of more cold, meaning deep freeze, events. It would seem logical that if the area is already hotter than it used to be, thus expanded a bit, and known for having a meaningful water table, this plate, likely weakened around 1650, if it were subjected to some short season of local glaciation, may follow classic physics and contract again, thus fracturing further. I cannot say it has no links to the planet's magnetic inclination, still I cannot either say that it does. Are any of you familiar with any residual magnetic field studies done in the Yellowstone Caldera, similar to Steen's Mountain? Is it in any way a record of geomagnetic field distribution?
IMO... the localized glaciation of the Rocky Mountains, basically on the same great circle tome as Western Europe, with perhaps some oscillation in that, should Yellowstone become subject to another sunspot minimum caused deep freeze, only localized, it is possible the caldera's plate could fracture more and sprout new geysers. Any thoughts to fail this? If that is possible, could this become a runaway effect? If so, and it broke up into constant steam vents, the aquifers from surrounding states could likely be drained into this supersaturation event process as we know the geysers to be. My last look at the aquifers from Wyoming and surrounding states, suggests the caldera would act as one large hot spring. This would progressively bubble over and fill in the basins in those areas. If the steam and water continued to bubble, the flow could create new tributaries meandering the water eventually to the eastern states. Maybe some of you who work with the USGS regurlarly could recommend some sites that I can look up water tables and aquifers online. I first began the study by ordering the maps through the public library here. As I said they all appear to be interleaved quite a bit. I want to see if there is any interleave with the underground river in Mexico in the link below:
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/03/070305-cave-river.html"
http://news.national...cave-river.html
http://api.viglink.com/api/click?format=go&key=ccc2217bc2b75c4bdf5f7e57267f0464&loc=http:/%
http://www.independe...red-941456.html
http://www.environme...akes-river/2190
http://news.national...ocean-asia.html
These are all relevant to the subject of the caldera and underground water sources that could affect it.
This is the NASA site for seeing what the sun's up to as of their last imaging. The following list is of a number of predictions made for solar flares based around the symmetry of the solar wind and some other experiments I've run. The first 4 I've been accurate to within 24 hours and today we are looking at what appears to be two flares in excess of 1.5% of the disk.
Oct 15, 2011
Jan 20 2012
feb 2 2012
feb 15 2012
march 19 2012
april 5 2012
may 5 2012
may 25 2012
july 12 2012
july 27 2012
sep 3 2012
sep 17 2012
oct 27 2012
nov 18 2012
dec 3 2012
dec 17 2012
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/rea ... t_304/512/
The flares are already building as of 1300 hrs today. We can see them actually tracing the path of magnetic symmetry between the Earth, Mercury and Venus.
It doesn't have to be a flare intense enough to make the Aurora dance for positive data. The lesser flares tell us that
1. the core has recently spat out a major plasma burst and
2. internal plasma activity is still seeming to be affected by the planets' external magnetic symmetries affecting an isolated area on the sun.
I have a list developed into 2014. It will take me at least the rest of this year to refine the system that says when a flare or flares may occur. What I'm trying to find through this thread are opinions about Yellowstone Caldera that may be useful in establishing a link between the solar wind and volcanism. It appears the supervolcano may be a type that errupts in phases, slowly as its own system disrupts from expansion. It may be a particular effect or phase could begin and continue for hundreds of years. Such a revelation would be good news because we can know a bit what to expect. IMO 2012 will be nothing like the movie sensationalizes and Yellowstone will not errupt suddenly as was depicted there. The one thing I'm speculating is that a deep freeze in Colorado and Wyoming could be a "next phase" indicator and it could runaway over a period of 10 or 20 years... I hope it would be that progressive.
http://dsc.discovery...nder/under.html
http://en.wikipedia....owstone_volcano
http://news.discover...ume-110414.html
(excerpt):
The plume's high conductivity suggests it contains high levels of silicate rocks and perhaps briny water, he said. The observation that the high conductivity plume is larger and angled differently than the one found with seismic imaging suggests that the plume of molten and partially molten rock may be surrounded by additional liquid including briny water, Zhdanov said.
http://news.national...-magma-science/
http://ngm.nationalg.../achenbach-text
(excerpt):
On August 29, 1870, a 30-year-old Army lieutenant named Gustavus Doane, part of an exploratory expedition in the Yellowstone region in the territory of Wyoming,
http://www.agiweb.or...pervolcano.html
(excerpt):
Around the same time, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) signed a memorandum of understanding with the University of Utah and Yellowstone National Park to create YVO. The idea was to formalize what had been an unofficial observatory for many years and create a stronger framework for monitoring and research. A few years later, in late 2002, a number of geological factors contributed to ramping up public interest in Yellowstone and its volcanic potential.
First, surface waves from the magnitude-7.9 Denali, Alaska, earthquake triggered about 400 small temblors within the park, 3,100 kilometers (about 1,900 miles) distant from the epicenter. Next, Steamboat Geyser, Yellowstone’s tallest and most unpredictable geyser, erupted in March 2003 and again in April and October. A new and vigorously steaming 75-meter (245-foot) line of steam vents erupted within sight of the Norris-Mammoth Road. A trail in the Norris Geyser Basin was closed because of increased steaming and resulting elevated ground temperatures. Our coordinating scientist Robert B. Smith of the University of Utah spearheaded a seismic and GPS-based experiment trying to understand the nature of the changes to hydrothermal features at Norris.
The above are excerpts from the articles directly above them. The last is where I'm basing some of my questions concerning deep freeze and its effects on this huge "lid." A person could spend years digging up all the dates and comparing data, still we have less than 200 years of observations about the caldera, including that of Jim Bridger. Next is to look up the verified historical dates of the eruptions, meaning the lesser erruptions and compare these against solar data if at all possible. It may offer more than just a link between the two where volcanoes are concerned, it could reflect on seismology as well, which we already know exists to a degree. Recently the subject of magnetic reconnection has come into the pieces of the puzzle. These magnetic portals occur every 8 minutes here on Earth. The CLUSTER Mission has only verified these since 2008.
Whether one actually reviews these, especially the wiki article on "The Little Ice Age," or not, the dates in that article are important because they link sunspot activity, or inactivity, to the planet's climate. The evidence also tends to link our own magnetosphere's geometry to our climate, thus the concern over Yellowstone's Caldera. Since the only "time machine" we have is the records of sedementation, CO2 in glacial ice, elevations of mountain ice bases, how much, how cold and when, for instance. How do we come up with some sort of predictability over potential hazards such as the Yellowstone Caldera? Are we all still that primative in our ability to compare evidence that all we can say is "I don't know?"
maunder minimum
http://en.wikipedia....Maunder_Minimum
http://en.wikipedia..../Little_Ice_Age
(excerpt):
It is conventionally defined as a period extending from the 16th to the 19th centuries, though climatologists and historians working with local records no longer expect to agree on either the start or end dates of this period, which varied according to local conditions. NASA defines the term as a cold period between 1550 AD and 1850 AD and notes three particularly cold intervals: one beginning about 1650, another about 1770, and the last in 1850, each separated by intervals of slight warming.[6] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) describes areas affected by the LIA:
Evidence from mountain glaciers does suggest increased glaciation in a number of widely spread regions outside Europe prior to the 20th century, including Alaska, New Zealand and Patagonia. However, the timing of maximum glacial advances in these regions differs considerably, suggesting that they may represent largely independent regional climate changes, not a globally-synchronous increased glaciation. Thus current evidence does not support globally synchronous periods of anomalous cold or warmth over this time frame, and the conventional terms of "Little Ice Age" and "Medieval Warm Period" appear to have limited utility in describing trends in hemispheric or global mean temperature changes in past centuries... [Viewed] hemispherically, the "Little Ice Age" can only be considered as a modest cooling of the Northern Hemisphere during this period of less than 1°C relative to late 20th century levels.[7]
The above is from the wiki article. Red areas are accented to point out how the evidence is relevant to what is happening today.
http://www.iceagenow...in_a_decade.htm
http://thedragonstal...mum-caused.html
My take on all this is just one person's perspective. I'd be very interested in hearing what others have to say about this.
Hector Decimal
For my first post here, this is pretty long, still I'd rather give you all enough to bite into with the first course than an appetiser through a slow server.
This is to gain some input from those in related scientific disciplines about the mysteries of Yellowstone Park Caldera. We have known since the 60's that it is a supervolcano. The natural scenario of it being a basin was known since the 1870's. From what I can piece together, it would seem the end of the Maunder Minimum wakened not only the sun's activity but possibly the supervolcano as well. I'd hope by some chance there are some who actually work at the YVO who can answer some questions about the age of the geysers, inclusive of the methodology for such determination. If it can't be truly determined, just say so.
Some of my research dives into the planet's geological/geomagnetic history include Yellowstone's history. Since it's discovery some 200 years after the Maunder Minimum or "little ice age," the caldera had been seen to have geysers. I'm of the opinion that it is not impossible for those leaks to be the earliest stages of fracture, thus eruption and caused by a thaw after such a long deep freeze.. We know very little about supervolcanoes, but if it has an area about 750 times that of Mt. Saint Helens, the lava dome is more plate-like so prone toward further fracturing in the case of more cold, meaning deep freeze, events. It would seem logical that if the area is already hotter than it used to be, thus expanded a bit, and known for having a meaningful water table, this plate, likely weakened around 1650, if it were subjected to some short season of local glaciation, may follow classic physics and contract again, thus fracturing further. I cannot say it has no links to the planet's magnetic inclination, still I cannot either say that it does. Are any of you familiar with any residual magnetic field studies done in the Yellowstone Caldera, similar to Steen's Mountain? Is it in any way a record of geomagnetic field distribution?
IMO... the localized glaciation of the Rocky Mountains, basically on the same great circle tome as Western Europe, with perhaps some oscillation in that, should Yellowstone become subject to another sunspot minimum caused deep freeze, only localized, it is possible the caldera's plate could fracture more and sprout new geysers. Any thoughts to fail this? If that is possible, could this become a runaway effect? If so, and it broke up into constant steam vents, the aquifers from surrounding states could likely be drained into this supersaturation event process as we know the geysers to be. My last look at the aquifers from Wyoming and surrounding states, suggests the caldera would act as one large hot spring. This would progressively bubble over and fill in the basins in those areas. If the steam and water continued to bubble, the flow could create new tributaries meandering the water eventually to the eastern states. Maybe some of you who work with the USGS regurlarly could recommend some sites that I can look up water tables and aquifers online. I first began the study by ordering the maps through the public library here. As I said they all appear to be interleaved quite a bit. I want to see if there is any interleave with the underground river in Mexico in the link below:
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/03/070305-cave-river.html"
http://news.national...cave-river.html
http://api.viglink.com/api/click?format=go&key=ccc2217bc2b75c4bdf5f7e57267f0464&loc=http:/%
http://www.independe...red-941456.html
http://www.environme...akes-river/2190
http://news.national...ocean-asia.html
These are all relevant to the subject of the caldera and underground water sources that could affect it.
This is the NASA site for seeing what the sun's up to as of their last imaging. The following list is of a number of predictions made for solar flares based around the symmetry of the solar wind and some other experiments I've run. The first 4 I've been accurate to within 24 hours and today we are looking at what appears to be two flares in excess of 1.5% of the disk.
Oct 15, 2011
Jan 20 2012
feb 2 2012
feb 15 2012
march 19 2012
april 5 2012
may 5 2012
may 25 2012
july 12 2012
july 27 2012
sep 3 2012
sep 17 2012
oct 27 2012
nov 18 2012
dec 3 2012
dec 17 2012
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/rea ... t_304/512/
The flares are already building as of 1300 hrs today. We can see them actually tracing the path of magnetic symmetry between the Earth, Mercury and Venus.
It doesn't have to be a flare intense enough to make the Aurora dance for positive data. The lesser flares tell us that
1. the core has recently spat out a major plasma burst and
2. internal plasma activity is still seeming to be affected by the planets' external magnetic symmetries affecting an isolated area on the sun.
I have a list developed into 2014. It will take me at least the rest of this year to refine the system that says when a flare or flares may occur. What I'm trying to find through this thread are opinions about Yellowstone Caldera that may be useful in establishing a link between the solar wind and volcanism. It appears the supervolcano may be a type that errupts in phases, slowly as its own system disrupts from expansion. It may be a particular effect or phase could begin and continue for hundreds of years. Such a revelation would be good news because we can know a bit what to expect. IMO 2012 will be nothing like the movie sensationalizes and Yellowstone will not errupt suddenly as was depicted there. The one thing I'm speculating is that a deep freeze in Colorado and Wyoming could be a "next phase" indicator and it could runaway over a period of 10 or 20 years... I hope it would be that progressive.
http://dsc.discovery...nder/under.html
http://en.wikipedia....owstone_volcano
http://news.discover...ume-110414.html
(excerpt):
The plume's high conductivity suggests it contains high levels of silicate rocks and perhaps briny water, he said. The observation that the high conductivity plume is larger and angled differently than the one found with seismic imaging suggests that the plume of molten and partially molten rock may be surrounded by additional liquid including briny water, Zhdanov said.
http://news.national...-magma-science/
http://ngm.nationalg.../achenbach-text
(excerpt):
On August 29, 1870, a 30-year-old Army lieutenant named Gustavus Doane, part of an exploratory expedition in the Yellowstone region in the territory of Wyoming,
http://www.agiweb.or...pervolcano.html
(excerpt):
Around the same time, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) signed a memorandum of understanding with the University of Utah and Yellowstone National Park to create YVO. The idea was to formalize what had been an unofficial observatory for many years and create a stronger framework for monitoring and research. A few years later, in late 2002, a number of geological factors contributed to ramping up public interest in Yellowstone and its volcanic potential.
First, surface waves from the magnitude-7.9 Denali, Alaska, earthquake triggered about 400 small temblors within the park, 3,100 kilometers (about 1,900 miles) distant from the epicenter. Next, Steamboat Geyser, Yellowstone’s tallest and most unpredictable geyser, erupted in March 2003 and again in April and October. A new and vigorously steaming 75-meter (245-foot) line of steam vents erupted within sight of the Norris-Mammoth Road. A trail in the Norris Geyser Basin was closed because of increased steaming and resulting elevated ground temperatures. Our coordinating scientist Robert B. Smith of the University of Utah spearheaded a seismic and GPS-based experiment trying to understand the nature of the changes to hydrothermal features at Norris.
The above are excerpts from the articles directly above them. The last is where I'm basing some of my questions concerning deep freeze and its effects on this huge "lid." A person could spend years digging up all the dates and comparing data, still we have less than 200 years of observations about the caldera, including that of Jim Bridger. Next is to look up the verified historical dates of the eruptions, meaning the lesser erruptions and compare these against solar data if at all possible. It may offer more than just a link between the two where volcanoes are concerned, it could reflect on seismology as well, which we already know exists to a degree. Recently the subject of magnetic reconnection has come into the pieces of the puzzle. These magnetic portals occur every 8 minutes here on Earth. The CLUSTER Mission has only verified these since 2008.
Whether one actually reviews these, especially the wiki article on "The Little Ice Age," or not, the dates in that article are important because they link sunspot activity, or inactivity, to the planet's climate. The evidence also tends to link our own magnetosphere's geometry to our climate, thus the concern over Yellowstone's Caldera. Since the only "time machine" we have is the records of sedementation, CO2 in glacial ice, elevations of mountain ice bases, how much, how cold and when, for instance. How do we come up with some sort of predictability over potential hazards such as the Yellowstone Caldera? Are we all still that primative in our ability to compare evidence that all we can say is "I don't know?"
maunder minimum
http://en.wikipedia....Maunder_Minimum
http://en.wikipedia..../Little_Ice_Age
(excerpt):
It is conventionally defined as a period extending from the 16th to the 19th centuries, though climatologists and historians working with local records no longer expect to agree on either the start or end dates of this period, which varied according to local conditions. NASA defines the term as a cold period between 1550 AD and 1850 AD and notes three particularly cold intervals: one beginning about 1650, another about 1770, and the last in 1850, each separated by intervals of slight warming.[6] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) describes areas affected by the LIA:
Evidence from mountain glaciers does suggest increased glaciation in a number of widely spread regions outside Europe prior to the 20th century, including Alaska, New Zealand and Patagonia. However, the timing of maximum glacial advances in these regions differs considerably, suggesting that they may represent largely independent regional climate changes, not a globally-synchronous increased glaciation. Thus current evidence does not support globally synchronous periods of anomalous cold or warmth over this time frame, and the conventional terms of "Little Ice Age" and "Medieval Warm Period" appear to have limited utility in describing trends in hemispheric or global mean temperature changes in past centuries... [Viewed] hemispherically, the "Little Ice Age" can only be considered as a modest cooling of the Northern Hemisphere during this period of less than 1°C relative to late 20th century levels.[7]
The above is from the wiki article. Red areas are accented to point out how the evidence is relevant to what is happening today.
http://www.iceagenow...in_a_decade.htm
http://thedragonstal...mum-caused.html
My take on all this is just one person's perspective. I'd be very interested in hearing what others have to say about this.
Hector Decimal