How long does the American empire have?

[Michael]

Re: Michael

Firstly - Ouch! nicley done!

Originally posted by spookz
...A ravaged Rome entered the Middle Ages with its once-proud population scattered and unrecognizable in rustic exile...

I like the writing style. Colleen McCullough?
Under the German's rule Roma was at peace and quite prosperous for the first time in decades. It may matter when you define "collapse".

Which of course is the point.

Originally posted by spookz
...a form of bird flu killed six people in Hong Kong and prompted its government to slaughter all the 1.4 million chickens in the territory.

This was one of if not the most dangerous virus to emerge in recent years - lucky enough one person in HK was quick, alert, and smart enough to stop it. ~ 50% mortality rate in humans. And again my point.

Originally posted by spookz
.. i do not see anything magical about the future. everything is not up for grabs. mind you, aliens could always land and demand to be taken to a leader, a meteorite could wipe us out but what is the point of factoring those unlikely events into predictions about the future?

True

Yes you can make predictions about the future. You can also make predictions about the lottery tickets.
No there is nothing wrong about discussing said predictions. It just so happens that my discussing them erked you? My argument is that I simply don’t have confidence that predictions made into the next 25 – 100 – 1000000000 years time (with any amount of specificity) are valid. I'd say whimsicality more than predictability. Prediction implies there's some amount of measurable certainty something will occur. Anyway, my point - and why I was comparing Japan with China - are the similarities with which comments made of China today resemble those made of Japan 15 years ago.

If the similitude was lost on you then so be it.

OK long Aussie weekend – see ya!

 

[kazakhan]

Found 1 of them!

spookz

well do i have to beg for some documentation? some elaboration? on england that is

Isn't it INCREDIBLE that a 1040 form is a payment of a tax to the U.K

 

[ElectricFetus]

Jihad_AlifLamLamHah,

I'm sorry but I don't believe terrorism is a viable military or political strategy. Look at what it has done to the Israel’s: made then stronger and hateful of the Palestinians, look at what it has done to Palestinians: cause the Israelis to take way more Palestinian’s rights, cause constant occupation and destruction. Also we have yet to see a unrestricted Israel, if Palestine declare total gorilla warfare against Israel the Israelis will declare unrestricted war on Palestine and that will not be pretty, if Israel wipes out most of the Palestine then Israel problems is solved. Israel should do as Jordon has done and kill any Palestinian up rest and then some more.

 

[nico]

Shout, Shout let it all out!

The era of Pax Americana is amoung us right now, the war in Iraq was a tick on the elephant. Pax Brittancia happened for approx. 100 years, until the Germans and WWI. Pax Romanum was also over 100 years, what brought this empires down. Expansion and eventual moral decay. All these empires have a heterogenous population in comparsion to their enemies. And the US' enemy is largely a homogenious popuation. China with over 92% the population is Han Chinese, and that majority will never change. The Americans are expanding their imperial rule over every corner of the world:

http://users.erols.com/mwhite28/usaworld.htm

The unipolar world in which we live in will change dramticly. The Chinese aren't going to be alone at the top. The Indians and the Europeans would begin to challenge American power, and we are already seeing a degrading of US power. All empires fall very slowly at first and usually when they are the height of their powers.
I never thought as Pax- anything, is a good thing. Peace starts wars, how? When peace happens the world begins to think about how this peace was achieved and who does this peace benefit? Usually the people in the hegemonic power only. Resentment grows. I don't consider terrorism (Al Qaeda) will help bring down the empire, but the empire will cannibalize it's self to destroy it. These terrorists are like the Roman Christians the more you kill the more want to join. And about China and population loss mike: China lost 30 million people in a year in 1958, did she collapse? No, China's population is so huge that if the country to really suffer she would have to lose 100's millions.

 

[nico]

Gotta interject

Originally posted by WellCookedFetus

I'm sorry but I don't believe terrorism is a viable military or political strategy. Look at what it has done to the Israel’s: made then stronger and hateful of the Palestinians

Has it made Israel stronger? A state's who economy has been severly buffeted, a increasing dependance on the UN economicly, militarily, and at the UN. The Israeli's are suffering from a degenerative disease, it's called terror it's eating away at the very foundations of Israeli secular, democratic society. The need to limit transportation, the occupation and rejection of 3 million people. The emmense cost of keeping all those people under control, paying the reserves to fight the "terror" and continue a unpopular occupation.

look at what it has done to Palestinians: cause the Israelis to take way more Palestinian’s rights, cause constant occupation and destruction.

Which makes the situation worse, it's cannibalism. Once their rights go away eventually the rights of the normal Israeli isn't that far behind.

Also we have yet to see a unrestricted Israel, if Palestine declare total gorilla warfare against Israel the Israelis will declare unrestricted war on Palestine and that will not be pretty,

What would be the victory for Israel? The Pals. have a clear and presistant goal the destruction of Israel. Do you Israeli's? A empire from the Nile to the Euphrates. Mass terror would be good for Israel's Zionist leaders.

 

[nico]

Neo-liberalism

Noam Chomsky wrote a excelant article on what is going on in this brave new world.

http://www.thirdworldtraveler.com/Chomsky/ProfitsOverPeople_Chom.html

The champion human rights violator in the hemisphere is Colombia, also the leading recipient of U.S. military aid and training in recent years. The pretext is the "drug war," but that is "a myth," as regularly reported by major human rights groups, the church, and other who have investigated the shocking record of atrocities and the close links between the narcotraffickers, landowners, the military, and their paramilitary associates. State terror has devastated popular organizations and virtually destroyed the one independent political party by assassination of thousands of activists, including presidential candidates, mayors, and others. Nonetheless Colombia is hailed as a stable democracy, revealing again what is meant by "democracy."


enjoy!

 

[justiceusa]

Getting back to the original topic, the decline of America, the biggest factor is going to be globalization of business and the influence that the mega corporations involved have over our government.

What effect and to what extent globalization will have in the long term is still an unknown entity. There has always been international trade, but Globalization in the context that it is currently happening is an economic phenomina that we have never experienced before.

Our entire social structure and economy was developed based on fairly precise guidlines provided by the US constitution, and the laws enacted under it.

There are no rules, no guide lines and no previous experiences which can be applied to globalization. It appears to be a corporate 'free fo all', with the rules being made by those who have the most to gain.

The outcome may be good, bad, or neutral . The fact is, we really don't know. But if the driving controlling factor continues to be corporate greed in the guise of being competitive, we can be assured the outcome will be a negative one.

My wish is that at some point the American people will be able to express opinions and make changes to this new phenomina of globalization so that we may remain "One Nation Indivisible".

 

[spookz]

Michael

I like the writing style. Colleen McCullough?

frommers travel guide

Under the German's rule Roma was at peace and quite prosperous for the first time in decades. It may matter when you define "collapse".

subst italy for rome and i would partially agree. specifically, the northern city states. this period would be referred to as the renaissance i think

Yes you can make predictions about the future. You can also make predictions about the lottery tickets

unfair comparison

My argument is that I simply don’t have confidence that predictions made into the next 25 – 100 – 1000000000 years time (with any amount of specificity) are valid.

again unfair. variables become unmanagable the further into the future you go. there is no crystal ball used here so lets stick to a reasonable period of time

 

[spookz]

Originally posted by WellCookedFetus
I'm sorry but I don't believe terrorism is a viable military or political strategy.

i think osama has done pretty well for himself. at the least, grievances would be brought to the table for resolution. sri lanka might be an example of a successsful terrorist campaign. sketchy on specific details....... i will be back

 

[spookz]

Re: Shout, Shout let it all out!

Originally posted by nico
and we are already seeing a degrading of US power. All empires fall very slowly at first and usually when they are the height of their powers.

interesting. what are the signs?

 

[nico]

interesting. what are the signs?

Simple:

1) Reaches Hyperpowerdom
2) Imperialism
3) Expansion
4) Repression at home
5) Moral decay

All this usually happens at the height of her hegemonic powers. This is when the Pax happens but the pax is really a false ense of relief, because this is the era of the festering thoughts of rebeillion. But worst of all:

6) Underestimations of her enemies.

Which every empire had encountered, Rome the Barbarians, the Brits the Germans, and the US well it depends India, EU, China we will have to wait and see.

 

[spookz]

still clueless

expand upon your points. what is hyperpowerdom? distinction b/w 2 and 3. i like to know your definitions. for instance i could assert america has been imperialistic ever since it became a nation.

6) Underestimations of her enemies.

perhaps a return to mad/spheres of influence with the wannabe empire?

 

[nico]

Muh!

still clueless

expand upon your points. what is hyperpowerdom? distinction b/w 2 and 3. i like to know your definitions. for instance i could assert america has been imperialistic ever since it became a nation.

I will try to explain as best as one can:

1) Reaches Hyperpowerdom

The French coined this term calling the US a hyperpower when there is no actually polar enemy to the US. The US is un-stoppable, she is the hegemon. No one can seriously challenge the US.

2) Imperialism
3) Expansion

These two don't mean the same, imperialism is dealt with weaker states socio-economic domain. So the US controls Mexico in almost every respect, but does she invade Mexico? No. Expansion is what the US when she invades another state, Iraq and Afghanistan or when another allows US troops to be based in her territory. In the long run imperialism is much more impactful on the US.

4) Repression at home

E.German styles of population servaillance, cannibalism of society in the US.

5) Moral decay

That's been happening since the 20's.

perhaps a return to mad/spheres of influence with the wannabe empire?

Wannabe empire? :bugeye: the US is the most successful empire ever known to man.

 

[Jerrek]

the US is the most successful empire ever known to man.

I beg to differ. There was a time when the sun never set over the Union Jack.

 

[EI_Sparks]

There was a time when the sun never set over the Union Jack.

As the saying went, mainly because God would never trust an englishman in the dark

Besides, there are valid arguments for that title to go to the Romans, the Turks, the Chinese and a half-dozen others. Me, I'd say the Chinese should get it.

 

[nico]

I beg to differ. There was a time when the sun never set over the Union Jack.

The sun never sets on the American empire as well, not only that the US has gotten into countries that the Brits could wish to have gotten into, Khiva (Uzbekistan), Saudi Arabia, Colombia, etc. The Americans monopolize trade worldwide (she imports everything). Albeirt the British were strong there was always a empire that could have degraded British power, not so with the US. Well until 2010.

 

[spookz]

i could have sworn moral decay happened in the 60's

http://www.geocities.com/way2muchsense/images/defender_of_freedom.jpg

could this be an example of moral decay? (a collectors item)

 

[Jihad_AlifLamLamHah]

Fetus :
I'm sorry but I don't believe terrorism is a viable military or political strategy.

If you're aims are pure offensive it is the best military method ever , especially when it is placed within the possibility of kamikaze .

Look at what it has done to the Israel?s: made then stronger and hateful of the Palestinians, look at what it has done to Palestinians: cause the Israelis to take way more Palestinian?s rights, cause constant occupation and destruction.

It didnt make Israel stronger , the opposite really , it has found something Israel simply cant do anything about . You'd be shocked by the ammount of assaults : www.ict.org.il

Indeed in Palestinian defence it hasnt done anything , but they dont have that much to defend you know , they are defending refugeecamps ......

Also we have yet to see a unrestricted Israel, if Palestine declare total gorilla warfare against Israel the Israelis will declare unrestricted war on Palestine and that will not be pretty, if Israel wipes out most of the Palestine then Israel problems is solved. Israel should do as Jordon has done and kill any Palestinian up rest and then some more.

But there is absolutely no possibility to wipe everybody out, this isnt the 50's , and these arent peoples who are ready to be eliminated , they rather ensure death while ensuring wounding Israel . You cant gain shit when you try to kill somebody that will blow himself up , you can only wound or kill yourself . And do you think that Jordan is terrorist-free ?

The only way for Israel to fight terrorism is to go back to guerilla , this means they will risk loosing total controll , but they do ensure having some controll . terrorism vs state , state loses eventually . if terrorism is high enough , it falls into anarchy . Its easier to destroy than to hold on .

 

[ElectricFetus]

spookz,

i think osama has done pretty well for himself. at the least, grievances would be brought to the table for resolution. sri lanka might be an example of a successsful terrorist campaign. sketchy on specific details....... i will be back

Osama is living in fear, hiding like a pussy! the USofA is going around killing Arabs like a crazy elephant, ya terrorism has help there cause really well!

Nico,

Israel economically is a very powerful country ... if anything its killing Palestinians that sucks money out of Israel, not the other way around. As such its dependence in aid is to support is massive military, which unfortunately is very needed.

 

[Jihad_AlifLamLamHah]

Osama is living in fear, hiding like a pussy!

No he's not . Not even Saddam is

the USofA is going around killing Arabs like a crazy elephant, ya terrorism has help there cause really well!

The cause of Arabs and of Islamists isnt the same . Only big hit they got was Afghan ...but its coming back dont worry .