Expert: China Hiding Bird Flu Cases

[Muhlenberg]

By GEOFFERY YORK
December 9, 2005
From Friday's Globe and Mail

"I don't know if they are brave enough to admit that they have the virus in every corner of the country," said Guan Yi, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong who has analyzed nearly 100,000 bird-flu-virus samples from across China . . .

Full text here

Paper by Guan Yi and others:

Proinflammatory cytokine responses induced by influenza A (H5N1) viruses in primary human alveolar and bronchial epithelial cells

"We demonstrated that in comparison to human H1N1 viruses, H5N1/97 and H5N1/04 viruses were more potent inducers of IP-10, interferon beta, RANTES (regulated on activation, normal T cell expressed and secreted) and interleukin 6 (IL-6) in primary human alveolar and bronchial epithelial cells in vitro. Recent H5N1 viruses from Vietnam (H5N1/04) appeared to be even more potent at inducing IP-10 than H5N1/97 virus."

Guan Yi was profiled by the Wall Street Journal a few weeks ago. He is putting himself at some risk by making public from Hong Kong what so many suspect is the case

 

[MetaKron]

About the time they start talking about cytokines, expect them to start promoting the use of 200 mg doses of prednisone to treat or attempt to prevent pneumonias. If we are morons enough to go for it, like we were with SARS, we're going to get one hell of a high mortality rate.

 

[Baron Max]

If we are morons enough to go for it, like we were with SARS, we're going to get one hell of a high mortality rate.

So what do you suggest that we, as a nation, do about it all? And remember, it takes years to adequately test any new vaccines ...without the testing, the vaccine itself could be deadly. So ....what should we do?

Baron Max

 

[MetaKron]

So what do you suggest that we, as a nation, do about it all? And remember, it takes years to adequately test any new vaccines ...without the testing, the vaccine itself could be deadly. So ....what should we do?

Baron Max

What we should not do is give them drugs that induce pneumonia and other life-threatening conditions like immune suppression, then blame those deaths on the virus.

 

[Baron Max]

What we should not do is give them drugs that induce pneumonia and other life-threatening conditions like immune suppression, then blame those deaths on the virus.

Okay, that sounds reasonable. Now ....what should we, as a nation, do to prevent the very horrors that you say we should do something about. What should we do? Please .....I'm waiting patiently.

Baron Max

 

[MetaKron]

Okay, that sounds reasonable. Now ....what should we, as a nation, do to prevent the very horrors that you say we should do something about. What should we do? Please .....I'm waiting patiently.

Baron Max

First off, anything that comes to us from China is total B.S. If they run the tests, we re-run them. If they tell us to do something as stupid as putting people into artificial comas and giving them huge doses of Prednisone, we use our own learning, which is far superior to theirs, and work it out for ourselves. At least I think it's superior to theirs. Then we do the normal supportive care of people who actually catch the flu.

 

[URI]

very worrying... when news becomes scarce on such a serious topic, the situation becomes severe.

I don't know if there is anything we can do, other than wear space suits.

 

[Muhlenberg]

URI...that is about it. Influenza has never been contained. If this strain goes H-H, there is nothing to do. We will know shortly enough if it has (my guess is it is still very difficult to pass from human to human, if it were not, we would have bodies piling up in NYC. These reports of hundreds of dead in the PRC have been trickling out for months. If and when H5N1 goes H-H it will go global in days and weeks).

Guan Yi and his team are the experts on what is going on in China. They know more than communist party bureaucrats who hide the truth from each other. When the PRC dismissed SARS, Yi said it was a threat and all civets had to be killed. We owe Guan Yi. The first wave of SARS resulted in only 800 deaths but the economic costs were huge. Yi's team certainly prevented a second wave.

What is of concern is Yi had to know about this for some time. That he is going public at this time means attempts to convince the PRC to open up have failed and the situtation is dire. You don't humiliate the leadership of Communist China when you are in China unless you have no choice.

From Michael Osterholm's presentation at the Wilson Center Nov. 30th:

• Assuming the next pandemic will be caused
by H5N1

• Most estimate that 30 to 60 percent of the
world’s population will become infected

• 1968-like pandemic; 2 to 7.5 million deaths

• 1918-like pandemic; 180 to 360 million
deaths

• Based on current H5N1 case fatality rate;
1.6 billion deaths.

Human deaths in the USA based on a 1918 event:

1,763,664

More

 

[URI]

from link

>> ..started tracking it in 1997, ..... analyzed 150,000 samples from across Asia. They've watched the virus mutate 20 times.>>

and human casualties... oh well

It is obvious that no matter what we might do, this rubick's cube buster will keep on generating genetic recombinations... it has persisted for many years...
If it is contained once, it will only be a delay.

There is Africa on the waiting list.

I am glad you are onto this, Muhlenberg

 

[Paraclete]

Well, an anthropologist might probably write a book one day, about how humans behave in times of rumours and crisis ......

The reason why H5N1 induces high levels of cytokines is simply an expression of the high pathologic degree towards human cells - the more cells an infection infects and destroys - the higher the level of cytokines - a natural response that activates the natural immunorespons as fast and as strong as possible .....

Tamiflu does not work against H5N1 unless taken within 48 hours of the onset of the disease - I can understand why a Vietnamese doctor do not think highly of tamiflu,
when treating halfdead patients , that have come to late to the hospital.....

That is why tamiflu SHOULD BE KEPT BY PRIVATE PEOPLE , so they can take it within the first 24 - 48 hours of onset of disease , when the pandemic breaks out - and NOT wait untill they feel so ill , that they need to go to the hospital (too late - no effect - the vira have allready spread all over your bronchial and lung epithelia ).

There are other drugs with effect on flu :
amantadine (works only on flu A - and for some reason it seems that H5N1 might be resistant towards it - though we still do not know if it will also be the case , when it mutates into H-H )
relenza aerosol (both flu A and B)
virazole aerosol (flu A and B as well as RS-virus , but for some reason best against the flu A/B in adults )
Virazole(ribavirin/rebetol) aerosol is however only available at hospitals , it needs a special nebulator (nebulizer) to be dispensed.Also extremely expensive.
Oral tablets of rebetol seems to work on flu - they are effective against a lot of vira.

Quarantine is only possible in the initial phase - when the pandemic starts , it might be too late .....

Vaccine - our best hope - takes time to make , and the new mutant H5N1, that will go H-H , is "probably" not around yet - so right now, you would have to make vaccine for the avian H5N1 and pray to , that it might also work on the new H-H mutant !!

 

[MetaKron]

Well, someone put up the word here that a good portion of China's population tests positive for antibodies to this strain already. It's been there and gone already if this is true. Even the so-called experts don't seem to collate their facts and put them together to see the picture that they actually form. If you have live birds who aren't sick in a lot of different places who test positive for antibodies, the disease has been there and gone already and hasn't killed them off. This thing about China "covering up" the extent of SARS or bird flu is total horse manure in one respect. What they are covering up is not that either item has killed a lot of people. They are covering up the fact that the fatality rate is way lower than they have advertised. Covering up SARS? These jerks invented SARS from the illnesses that a small group of people contracted after breathing sewer gas from bad plumbing.

If we cannot see past the use of "cytokines" as a buzzword, we may deserve every bit of trouble we get. The number one remedy for inflammation is plain water. Vitamin C is a huge help too, as is MSM, a popular over-the-counter dietary supplement. It's very suspicious that the media isn't pushing what they used to push, fluids, chicken soup, all of the supportive care. I have even seen a certain local newsperson spend about one sentence on that.

The article linked to says that China has been seeing bird flu cases for at least 10 years. It looks like another very very slow plague. The thing's going to have to mutate to become a credible threat. I find it hard to believe, also, that people got sick from bird flu by eating poultry in countries where neither sanitation nor refrigeration are standard household items. Most likely it was coliform or salmonella.

I am simply not going to worry about the bird flu infecting me and making me any sicker than I was several times in the 1980s.