ESP experiments starting with Rhine at Duke university about 70 years ago are designed to find ESP even if it does not exist.
It seems like deliberate fraud to me. Consider the Rhine design, which is used by many others.
Rhine designed a set of 100 cards with five different designs (20 of each). Guessing should result in averaging 20 correct for each run through the deck. In a telepathy test, the person in charge looks at each card before the testee makes his guess. In a clairvoyance test, the person in charge does not look at each card first.
Hundreds or thousands of people are given initial tests. Those who average more than 20 correct are given more tests. those who average close to 20 correct for each run are not tested further. After a lot of testing, some people are discovered with scores which seem to be statistically incredible, or at least unusual. This is taken as evidence of ESP.
Now let us think about the basic design, and apply it to an experiment with simpler mathematics.
Suppose we started with 2048 people and asked them to guess heads or tails on a coin flip. About 1024 would figure to guess right. Now we ask the 1024 who guessed right to try again. About 512 would figure to guess right again. If you keep this up, you will find a few people who guess right 8-10 times in a row.
Would the above be evidence of ESP? Of course not, you would expect a few out of 2048 to have a run of correct guesses.
What would be a good experimental design? One that I can think of is the following.
The fact that they used a flawed design suggests to me that they are charlatans in spite of their credentials. Being a department head at a major university is a damn good job, with a significant salary and some prestige. If you can get way with being a charlatan, it is a lot easier than doing legitimate research in competition with real scientists.
When I was in ninth or tenth grade about 60 years ago, a friend of mine and I noticed an article about Rhine. ESP seemed like a cool idea to us, and we studied up on his work. We even ran some experiments using a deck of ordinary playing cards. Being arrogant teenagers, we decided that if we did not have ESP, nobody did. We were both into mathematics, especially probability since we enjoyed Blackjack and a few other gambling games. After a few days of exsperiments and discussions, we realized how foolish the Rhine design was.
If a couple of teenagers can recognize a bad experimental design, why do researchers with alleged credentials not also see the error? The answer is simple. You can make more money writing about ESP being credible than you can writing about it not working.
A wise man once said.
It seems like deliberate fraud to me. Consider the Rhine design, which is used by many others.
Rhine designed a set of 100 cards with five different designs (20 of each). Guessing should result in averaging 20 correct for each run through the deck. In a telepathy test, the person in charge looks at each card before the testee makes his guess. In a clairvoyance test, the person in charge does not look at each card first.
Hundreds or thousands of people are given initial tests. Those who average more than 20 correct are given more tests. those who average close to 20 correct for each run are not tested further. After a lot of testing, some people are discovered with scores which seem to be statistically incredible, or at least unusual. This is taken as evidence of ESP.
Now let us think about the basic design, and apply it to an experiment with simpler mathematics.
Suppose we started with 2048 people and asked them to guess heads or tails on a coin flip. About 1024 would figure to guess right. Now we ask the 1024 who guessed right to try again. About 512 would figure to guess right again. If you keep this up, you will find a few people who guess right 8-10 times in a row.
Would the above be evidence of ESP? Of course not, you would expect a few out of 2048 to have a run of correct guesses.
What would be a good experimental design? One that I can think of is the following.
- Start with several thousand people and test them with the Rhine ESP deck or coin flips.
Plot the results.
Compare the plot with a plot of the expected results, which approximates a bell shaped curve.
If the shape of the two plots is noticeably different, it would be evidence of ESP, or at least be a strong suggestion that ESP is possible.
The fact that they used a flawed design suggests to me that they are charlatans in spite of their credentials. Being a department head at a major university is a damn good job, with a significant salary and some prestige. If you can get way with being a charlatan, it is a lot easier than doing legitimate research in competition with real scientists.
When I was in ninth or tenth grade about 60 years ago, a friend of mine and I noticed an article about Rhine. ESP seemed like a cool idea to us, and we studied up on his work. We even ran some experiments using a deck of ordinary playing cards. Being arrogant teenagers, we decided that if we did not have ESP, nobody did. We were both into mathematics, especially probability since we enjoyed Blackjack and a few other gambling games. After a few days of exsperiments and discussions, we realized how foolish the Rhine design was.
If a couple of teenagers can recognize a bad experimental design, why do researchers with alleged credentials not also see the error? The answer is simple. You can make more money writing about ESP being credible than you can writing about it not working.
A wise man once said.
Fill in ESP, UFO phenomena, Bermuda Triangle nonsense, et cetera for the . . .
