Economy without fossil fuels

zox

udba
Administrator
Did anyone think about how would global economy react in case of long term fossil fuel shortage?
When the world will be ready to completely switch to other types of fuel and energy?
And generally, are we ready to abandon some of our habits and ultra consumer attitudes in order to help the smooth transition to more environmental friendly technologies?
 
Did anyone think about how would global economy react in case of long term fossil fuel shortage?
When the world will be ready to completely switch to other types of fuel and energy?
And generally, are we ready to abandon some of our habits and ultra consumer attitudes in order to help the smooth transition to more environmental friendly technologies?

Why are the two mutually exclusive? Over the past 30 years, the United States has cleaned up the environment significantly, while at the same time, consumerism has been on the rise.

There is a now a demand for greener products, which is having an impact everywhere. The Superbowl just paid to offset its power consumption, lumber companies are now working hard to plant more trees than they log (also a smart business move, when you think about it), consumers are demanding more fuel efficient vehicles and hybrids (and hopefully hydrogen or electric cars will pan out), and the first contracts for new nuclear plants are going through (first in 30 years, I believe).

There used to be rivers in the United States that you couldn't swim in (upper Hudson, Detroit river, and Boston Harbor in my personal, childhood experience), which are now all beautiful and pristine. A lot of the worst polluters have had to pay into superfunds to do major cleanups, and these have progressed nicely. There are more trees in the U.S. today than there has been in the past (mostly do to more efficient farming technology which has left many smaller farms idle, where they have returned to forests).

Around me, there is a new trend of building smaller, eco-friendly homes. We just had some neighbors that built a 700 square-foot home on 28 acres, that is designed to have almost zero impact on the environment. One of my co-workers and his son have recently taken both of their houses off of the grid and installed solar panels. They use a spring for their water and live like well-socialized hermits.

Look... your anti-consumerism is going to frustrate you for your entire life if you cling to it too hard. The world you want is not the world that most other people want. You need to start figuring out ways to make consumerism greener, because you are not going to get rid of the natural human desire to have more *stuff*. It isn't an American trait, it is a universal trait. So, as each country develops to the US level of wealth, you are going to see the exact same behavior pop up. If you want to "save" the environment, you need to get to these developing countries and help them skip over the mistakes that we made in the past. Show them how to develop cleanly, knowing what we know right now.

This is the direction that the new environmental movement is going. Al Gore admits as much, and the founder of GreenPeace had to leave that organization because it could not make these philosophical changes. You might want to update your own philosophy, to be sure that you are not left behind.

-swivel
 
The question is not pro/anti-consumerism, but whether the current level of consumption is sustainable?

Then why did the original poster include that last sentence? Shouldn't we let the content of his post dictate his direction more than the title of the thread?

It was an agenda-driven question, and I chose to respond to the agenda. Since his agenda is based on fallacies, it makes the question moot. Responding to the question would be a tacit agreement with incorrect assumptions, and not something that I am willing to do.
 
Will oil last forever?

Our sun will not last forever. Our species will not last forever. This universe will not sustain life forever. Your question is meaningless.

The real question should be, "Is there enough oil to last for as long as we will be using it?". And nobody knows the answer to that question. Nobody is even sure where oil comes from. There are abiotic theories of oil that have quite a bit of merit. There is also evidence that the majority of the biomass of the Earth resides below the crust. That "extremophiles" are the rule, not the exception. If so, oil might be a renewable resource. Many of the wells in Pennsylvania that were pumped out at the turn of the 20th century have been looked at again, and there is oil in them.

The experts aren't sure... so how in the world are you?
 
The experts aren't sure... so how in the world are you?
Are you sure? It seems you are banking on an unlimited supply of oil, what if there isn't? What then? Some experts also believe we have gone past peak oil.

Our sun will not last forever. Our species will not last forever. This universe will not sustain life forever. Your question is meaningless.
The question is NOT meaningless if you have children and grandchildren who will be affected by our over-consumption today. The Sun:your comparison to a timescale of billions of years is irrelevant.

If your argument is that everything will die in the end then there really is no point in debating anything is there? Why bother doing anything? We will just be dead whatever happens.
 
Over-consumption is pure waste. It's a waste for the environment. It's a waste for our children. And it's a waste for our minds.
 
IF THE MARKET... is allowed to rule te day...
its simple... when gasoline is at 10 dollars a gallon...

suddenly... it will be real profitable to make methanol and ethonal.

and they will....

the market forces.... will rip us all off.

but.. we need the energy.


he who sets himself up now... with the new fuels... will get rich later.

and the only ones in the position to do that... is big oil.
and they are content to wait.

IM WORKING ON SETTING UP MY OWN EHTANOL PRODUCTION... and maybe methonal...
its not hard... and can be done easily on a small scale.

i just wish i could build a thermal cracking unit... then i could fuel my car with the trash i produce everyday... and.. from plant matter from the garden.... etc...
trash... then suddenly becomes valuble.

in fact... im surprised we still have land fills...
thats not trash.... its future desiel fuel.

-MT
 
Did anyone think about how would global economy react in case of long term fossil fuel shortage?

Total anarchy, wars and the end of the civilzations as we know it. Most people don't realize it, but the technological advantages of the transportation and lots of other things like plastic and medicine are OIL BASED...

There is a theory which I happen to believe to be true, that once we are running out of oil, civilization will start to decline.

The wars about oil already started...

When the world will be ready to completely switch to other types of fuel and energy?

We should be switcing right now if it isn't already too late. Carter was right back in the 70s but nobody paid attention to him... Iraq is the price what we pay for it...
 
Are you sure? It seems you are banking on an unlimited supply of oil, what if there isn't? What then? Some experts also believe we have gone past peak oil.


The question is NOT meaningless if you have children and grandchildren who will be affected by our over-consumption today. The Sun:your comparison to a timescale of billions of years is irrelevant.

If your argument is that everything will die in the end then there really is no point in debating anything is there? Why bother doing anything? We will just be dead whatever happens.

I wasn't being pessimistic, just showing you that your question of the finite supply of oil is meaningless. You need to phrase your questions better because it will force you to understand the problem more accurately.

What would you say, if you could go back 120 years, and hear the people complaining that there weren't enough horses for all the people? That the big cities were being overrun with the large animals, and their waste was making living there a nightmare. What about the people who worried that whale blubber was going to run out, so they would no longer be able to work at night?

These people didn't know about automobiles, or oil. They were foolishly worried about the eternal demands of the *present*, when that has never been an indicator of the demands of the *future*. You are making the same mistake.


Another thing to think about: Stuff isn't going to just run out one day. You won't wake up to a headline that we have run out of copper, or oil. Think about how these things are produced. There are hundreds of miners and drillers and thousands and thousands of sources. We keep turning up new ones as old ones run out. The process of running completely out of something will be gradual, and market forces will come into play.

Think about how it would work: The top 5 copper mines in the world are played out. No replacement is found. What happens? First, the price of copper follows supply and demand, and is so expensive, that replacement materials are found to offset the demand. Also, just as is happening now, the price for old copper keeps rising, so the supply is staunched by recyclers (a big industry right now). Eventually, rather than running out, the copper supply will be so tight that only essential uses will be able to afford it. It won't go away, but due to economic pressure, other things will take its place.

For instance, the biggest use of copper right now is for wiring. The first devices that send electricity over a small distance, wirelessly, have now been created. In 100 years, it may be that all electricity is beamed wirelessly throughout businesses and homes. The technology seems feasible.

Most oil use could be replaced by battery-operated vehicles that are recharged off the grid. A grid which uses nuclear power, which is much cleaner and more abundant than current power production. Perhaps solar cells will continue to advance, and we can just use solar power for most uses. This seems certainly the way things are progressing right now.

Think outside the box, friend. The way we use resources today is not going to last. It never has. And the scare-tactics that you are falling for have always been wrong, over and over and over again for 2,000 years that I am aware of.

So, again... please come with some proof for your dire fears, instead of the same rhetoric that anti-consumerists have been spouting for 40 years. You guys have been on the wrong side of history too often to think that you have credibility to burn here.
 
We depend on oil for absolutely everything. Copper is a bad example, because it can be recycled. Oil can't.

Nuclear powerstations take a ridiculous amount of money and energy to make. The majority oppose nuclear power. The majority don't see running out of oil as a concern. You're right - levels will decrease slowly, but we'll start to feel the burn and it will gradually get worse until there is no petrol in your area, no food on the shelves of the supermarket and no job to go to because nobody can get into work (no petrol), and nobody buys the products or services the company you work for sells (because they have no money).

Manufacturing of a lot of goods requires oil. To power machines, lubricate them, to compose the materials of the product, etc.

What makes you think 'they' will come up with a decent solution? You assume somebody will come up with a decent solution, but what if they don't?
 
Swivel, you know shit about oil. Maybe you should educate yourself before arguing...

What would you say, if you could go back 120 years, and hear the people complaining that there weren't enough horses for all the people?

Horses are infinite resources. 200 years from now there will still be horses...


Stuff isn't going to just run out one day. You won't wake up to a headline that we have run out of copper, or oil.

True, that's why we already have oilwars although oil is just peaking right now. Imagine when it goes into decline...

We keep turning up new ones as old ones run out.

In your dreams. Last years was the first year when the growth of demand OUTPACED the speed of new discoveries. Do the math, that means relative decrease...

A good start for your education could be the book The Prize... It is about the history of oil...
 
Nuclear powerstations take a ridiculous amount of money and energy to make. The majority oppose nuclear power.
They oppose nuclear power because oil has been cheap and they think it's safer. But as oil gets more expensive, people will get over their fear of nuclear power.
 
They oppose nuclear power because oil has been cheap and they think it's safer. But as oil gets more expensive, people will get over their fear of nuclear power.
France generates 80% of its electricity from Nuclear Power. They seem to have a love affair with it.

France's decision to launch a large nuclear program dates back to 1973 and the events in the Middle East that they refer to as the "oil shock." The quadrupling of the price of oil by OPEC nations was indeed a shock for France because at that time most of its electricity came from oil burning plants. France had and still has very few natural energy resources. It has no oil, no gas and her coal resources are very poor and virtually exhausted.
 
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