Corona Virus 2019-nCoV

[Quantum Quack]

Rant:
What a lot of politicians do not understand is that the Chinese experience of this issue is not able to be replicated any where else.
They had an epicenter, a ground zero, that could be contained if they were aggressive about it. They had essentially only one major hot spot to deal with. Wuhan.

• They shut down 400 million people to do it.
  
• They are still struggling after 3 months.
  
• Their citizens are more compliant to authority and are mainly unarmed.
  
• They generally embrace social engineering for the greater collective benefit.
• They were prepared to sacrifice their economy to do so.

For other nations they have no epicenter, they have multiple hot spots cropping up all over the place. The chances of general population infection over time are quite high.
Here in Australia just about every state and territory has reported transmission hot spots. This means that it is more or less inevitable that the entire population will have some form of exposure in the coming weeks.
Population 23million, 16% are over 65yo, potential fatalities if containment fails to slow this illness is massive.
The USA which is also experiencing transmission hot spots in just about all States.
Population 330+ million, 16 %+ over 65yo, potential fatalities if containment fails to slow this illness is even more massive. (millions)

It is essential that all persons Globally take up the need to socially isolate and take preventative measures immediately and not wait to be told what to do by Trump or any one else in his next TV address.

The global economic ramifications are and are going to be absolutely devastating.

If people act now to contain their exposure and potential contagiousness this issue will be all over more or less with in 3- 6 months or so, with minimal fatalities. If people don't, this could go on for many more months and have massive fatalities and even more serious impacts o the global economy.

Ironically the same issue of procrastination, denial and consequences because of, can be applied to AGW Climate Change but on a much larger scale.

End of rant...

 

[Saint]

I believe Vaccine will be mass produced in 3 months time.

 

[Write4U]

I believe Vaccine will be mass produced in 3 months time.

Let's hope.

 

[exchemist]

I believe Vaccine will be mass produced in 3 months time.

Highly unlikely. It is best to assume it will take 12 months. Once you have a candidate you have to do trials for both safety and efficacy.

We do not want another thalidomide scandal, as a result of panicky short cuts.

 

[iceaura]

does "flattening the peak" alter the eventual total number of people infected?

It can. Especially in the second waves and sporadic recurrences.
More likely it just improves the survival rate of the infected by an order of magnitude, saves the basic institutions of civilization, and allows for the development of routine better responses - maybe even a vaccine.

Now that it is known that people who have the virus but are asymptomatic can infect other people, a local(minnesota) epidemiologist said that controlling the spread of the disease was much like trying to stop the wind.

Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and China itself, have all bent the curve in their favor considerably.
Testing thoroughly goes a long way toward preventing the asymptomatic from becoming Typhoid Marys of their day (there are always a few asymptomatic carriers, in any widely spread plague).

you are right... flaming Trump isn't going to solve anything.

It may cost him the election - even better, it may rub off on his supporters and Party, and cost his supporters an election or two.

Tyrants fall by derision, fairly often. It's one of the most effective strategies. As Machiavelli was not the first to observe, a Prince must avoid the scorn of the people above all. People will not sufficiently fear an incompetent whom they know to be generally despised.

And it may stiffen the backbones of those in a position to act well - governors of States, etc. Before the '08 Crash a bunch of State officials got together and tried to re-regulate the banks in their States, but didn't have enough support - Americans did not despise W&Cheney enough to make that a safe gambit. They caved, with consequences visible everywhere.

Americans learned nothing from Iran Contra and the S&L crash, they learned nothing from the '08 Crash, Katrina, or the Iraq War, but maybe this will finally get some tar stuck to the Republican Party - at least get the Republicans out of the way so the adults can do something.

Thing is, if we don't do something about the Republican Party we will never get a handle on this stuff.

 

[sculptor]

We have
Passive antibody therapy
If those who have survived donate plasma
that can keep 2 others from succumbing to the disease

 

[billvon]

We have
Passive antibody therapy
If those who have survived donate plasma
that can keep 2 others from succumbing to the disease

As long as the deaths from allergenic reactions and transfusion related infection are kept down. That's why so far it's only being done for very serious cases, where the odds of dying from the virus are greater than the odds of dying from the transfer of blood components. It also has the problem that you can't treat people until a lot of other people already have it.

 

[wegs]

The USA (Trump) had plenty of time to take this virus seriously and actually put contingency plans in place if he hadn't spent so much time in denial. Don't worry just about all world leaders were caught in some state of denial, even my own government had their head in the sand.

you are right... flaming Trump isn't going to solve anything. He needs to be supported or stood down but not played with.

I guess I see it differently. None of us would be handling this any better - it’s a new virus so even scientists and doctors are learning more about it daily. Think Trump’s “task force” is doing a pretty good job but Governor Cuomo is wow...has blown me away with his calm yet responsible stance throughout this whole thing. NYC is really tough to control and he’s managing!

 

[parmalee]

I’m no Trump lover but he’s doing the best he can, no one expected to be hit this hard. And he actually was working on this back in January.

???

You can't possibly be serious here? Up until 48 hours ago, Trump dismissed it entirely--and repeatedly, as shown by this fairly complete timeline of his dismissals: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/opinion/trump-coronavirus.html<<<. (Note: relatively speaking, it's a fairly long read)--as a "Democrat hoax." Two years ago, he disbanded the task force set up by Obama to deal specifically with a pandemic.

Honestly, prior to 48 hours ago, he had done everything wrong, in spite of the abundance of info provided by the CDC, WHO, and others o. the gravity of the situation. I generally oppose capital punishment; however, Trump should be executed. Of course, now is hardly the time to be concerned with such, but... yeah. I don't even like people generally, yet even to me Trump's callousness and indifference is fucking repugnant.

 

[wegs]

Oh wow...how did I miss this? I admit, I don't follow Trump news all that closely, but have been hearing (very recently) that he was in 'discussions' with China, relating to COVID19 back in January.

But, then I read this...

Spoiler

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/coronavirus-donald-trump-timeline

But, is it somewhat fair to say that if the US took the kinds of precautions that it's taking now back in January, would we (American citizens) have taken it seriously? (since the disease wasn't widespread, then)

 

[Quantum Quack]

ut, is it somewhat fair to say that if the US took the kinds of precautions that it's taking now back in January, would we (American citizens) have taken it seriously? (since the disease wasn't widespread, then)

-Of all the people in Government it is the president that has the availability of the sum of all knowledge. It is the president that has the tools to lead, even more so than any of his administration. If he is incapable of making proper and wise decisions based on that knowledge for the benefit of the people, because of his own emotional immaturity then he really shouldn't be in the job nor aspire to be in the job.
Trump has devoted his presidency to cherry picking what intell he accepts, doesn't accept and claims to be fake.
Example: Intel says that bio-security is being seriously threatened he ignores it and considers the intel fake due to his own political fears. For over 2 months he has done virtually no planning since he himself placed restrictions on Chinese entry.
What sort of person would ban travel for biosecurity reasons, watch a super power quarantine 400 million people and then do nothing?

I am sorry , but it is distressing when you look at the numbers and forecasts for the USA. Forecasts that Trump must have been informed about over 2 months ago and yet no contingency planning undertaken to manage the hysteria sweeping the nation because he himself is a part of and cause of that hysteria. Denying a problem exists when most people know it does is the best way to inflame hysteria not mitigate it...

As to taking it seriously, it is his job to ensure he communicated the seriousness to the people and he simply didn't do his job.
Remember he is the man who should know the most...

 

[wegs]

-Of all the people in Government it is the president that has the availability of the sum of all knowledge. It is the president that has the tools to lead, even more so than any of his administration. If he is incapable of making proper and wise decisions based on that knowledge for the benefit of the people, because of his own emotional immaturity then he really shouldn't be in the job nor aspire to be in the job.
Trump has devoted his presidency to cherry picking what intell he accepts, doesn't accept and claims to be fake.
Example: Intel says that bio-security is being seriously threatened he ignores it and considers the intel fake due to his own political fears. For over 2 months he has done virtually no planning since he himself placed restrictions on Chinese entry.
What sort of person would ban travel for biosecurity reasons, watch a super power quarantine 400 million people and then do nothing?

I am sorry , but it is distressing when you look at the numbers and forecasts for the USA. Forecasts that Trump must have been informed about over 2 months ago and yet no contingency planning undertaken to manage the hysteria sweeping the nation because he himself is a part of and cause of that hysteria.

As to taking it seriously, it is his job to ensure he communicated the seriousness to the people and he simply didn't do his job.
Remember he is the man who should know the most...

But, then there's this article:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51353279

From the article:

What measures has the US taken?
On 23 January, the US ordered the departure of all non-emergency US personnel and their family members from the city of Wuhan in Hubei province, where the virus originated.

Less than a week later, the US allowed for the voluntary departure of non-emergency personnel and relatives of US government employees from China.

On 30 January, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a global health emergency over the new virus.

Following this, the US ordered the departure of all US personnel family members under the age of 21 in China.

Any US citizen who has been in Hubei province will be subject to 14 days' quarantine upon returning to the US.

It seems like in some articles that I've read, Trump was acting earlier than has been mentioned, and he was being accused of causing fear and panic. So, one article calls him reckless for dismissing the virus and other articles state that he was acting too soon?

So, what should we believe? Looks like there was a lot in the works back in January.

 

[Quantum Quack]

But, then there's this article:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51353279

From the article:

What measures has the US taken?
On 23 January, the US ordered the departure of all non-emergency US personnel and their family members from the city of Wuhan in Hubei province, where the virus originated.

Less than a week later, the US allowed for the voluntary departure of non-emergency personnel and relatives of US government employees from China.

On 30 January, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a global health emergency over the new virus.

Following this, the US ordered the departure of all US personnel family members under the age of 21 in China.

Any US citizen who has been in Hubei province will be subject to 14 days' quarantine upon returning to the US.

It seems like in some articles that I've read, Trump was acting earlier than has been mentioned, and he was being accused of causing fear and panic. So, one article calls him reckless for dismissing the virus and other articles state that he was acting too soon?

So, what should we believe?

What is really puzzling is that even though he made those reasonable orders he failed to realise that the infection was spreading globally and that the contagion was capable of coming to the USA from many nations and not just China. He seemed to think that a travel ban on China was all he had to do and that no further contingency planning was necessary. No test kits, no masks, no visors, no extra respirators etc... and worst of all no significant co-ordination with the various states. It appears his time is devoted solely to re-election and that effectively the USA has NO president.
In other words everything he has done had been devoted to November and how he can manipulate the situation to that end.

He has no plan and is simply incapable of planning beyond getting re-elected.

Good planning is a skill set that he simply doesn't have.

Edit:
To be fair, not many national leaders have been prepared for what is happening today. If anything the true test of leadership is being demonstrated.
The UK will prove to be a classic...case of the costs when a government leadership has it's head in the sand. ( if the current stats are any indication)

"True leadership is non-political." ~Anon

 

[wegs]

What is really puzzling is that even though he made those reasonable orders he failed to realise that the infection was spreading globally and that the contagion was capable of coming to the USA from many nations and not just China. He seemed to think that a travel ban on China was all he had to do and that no further contingency planning was necessary. No test kits, no masks, no visors, no extra respirators etc... and worst of all no significant co-ordination with the various states. It appears his time is devoted solely to re-election and that effectively the USA has NO president.
In other words everything he has done had been devoted to November and how he can manipulate the situation to that end.

He has no plan and is simply incapable of planning beyond getting re-elected.

Good planning is a skill set that he simply doesn't have.

Edit:
To be fair, not many national leaders have been prepared for what is happening today. If anything the true test of leadership is being demonstrated.
The UK will prove to be a classic...case of the costs when a government leadership has it's head in the sand. ( if the current stats are any indication)

"True leadership is non-political." ~Anon

Can you cite sources as to why you believe he only was concerned with China?

 

[Quantum Quack]

Didn't trump publicly delegate the issue to Pence?
Why is Trump trying to run the show when he has delegated to Pence?
IMO Trump made a good decision to delegate and maintain a certain distance from the issue.

 

[Quantum Quack]

Can you cite sources as to why you believe he only was concerned with China?

Public TV coverage SBS world news as it happened... Live announcements etc...

 

[wegs]

I will say that I’m taken aback that South Korea seems to be far ahead of the curve in terms of testing, etc than the US - like by a long shot, which makes me concerned as to why are we so behind? (from a proactive perspective)

It just blows my mind that in 2020, a random flu could take the entire world down, economically. What?

Trump has only been around for a few years, why is the US so behind in terms of science and medicine? Why are we relying on China to manufacture the majority of our meds?

Perhaps disasters like this can serve as hard lessons for us all to learn ...unfortunately we all pay the price for the recklessness of unbridled capitalism aka greed.

 

[sculptor]

As long as the deaths from allergenic reactions and transfusion related infection are kept down. That's why so far it's only being done for very serious cases, where the odds of dying from the virus are greater than the odds of dying from the transfer of blood components. It also has the problem that you can't treat people until a lot of other people already have it.

actually,
the plan is to boost the immunity of the recently infected as well as those at risk of infection(read health care workers, etc...)
see dr. Arturo Casadevall
and, a slightly different approach bu takeda

 

[Quantum Quack]

I will say that I’m taken aback that South Korea seems to be far ahead of the curve in terms of testing, etc than the US - like by a long shot, which makes me concerned as to why are we so behind? (from a proactive perspective)

It just blows my mind that in 2020, a random flu could take the entire world down, economically. What?

Trump has only been around for a few years, why is the US so behind in terms of science and medicine? Why are we relying on China to manufacture the majority of our meds?

Perhaps disasters like this can serve as hard lessons for us all to learn ...unfortunately we all pay the price for the recklessness of unbridled capitalism aka greed.

I empathize with you. It is hard to get your head around especially when the worst is yet to come.
The Money vs Life trade off is a painful one and there can only be one conclusion - no one wins.

Australia is moving more and more to a national mandatory enforced "Shelter in Place" situation and that means almost total economic dismantling.
A nation planning to survive this has it's work cut out for it.. for sure...

 

[wegs]

I empathize with you. It is hard to get your head around especially when the worst is yet to come.
The Money vs Life trade off is a painful one and there can only be one conclusion - no one wins.

Australia is moving more and more to a national mandatory enforced "Shelter in Place" situation and that means almost total economic dismantling.
A nation planning to survive this has it's work cut out for it.. for sure...

Wow, even in Australia. This is madness. I can't help but wonder...before all of this...people went to work sick. I have been around sick coworkers before, so have you, so has everyone. They have had the flu, strep throat, and a host of other contagious ailments. But, if we cough a little now, or run a bit of a temperature, we need to quarantine ourselves? This just doesn't make sense to me.

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-...is-a-bigger-threat-to-the-us-than-coronavirus

Don't get me wrong, I'm taking COVID19 seriously, but it just seems odd to me that we are literally changing how we live our lives, the stock market has paused four times throughout the past week, companies are out of business, layoffs are starting...but, many people die every year battling the flu. And there are no economic disruptions over it.

I need someone to explain this to me.