Corona Virus 2019-nCoV

Quantum Quack said:
Do You think I am over reacting about an over reaction?
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No. I think the media is giving people what they want (terrifying stories of mass deaths and overcrowded hospitals) and they in turn are demanding more and more action; the government is thus spending more time on medical theater than on actually working on the issue. And that just compounds the problem, because people see the theater and get scared.
Perhaps you can tell our Government that they are over reacting?
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Sure.

"Hey Australia! Cool it with the overreaction! Travel bans don't really work."

There. That should straighten things right out.
 
Quantum Quack said:
The first thing to realise is that the data being provided for the situation in China is unable to be verified, confirmed or considered as credible by normal means. Any Doctor or specialist that voices an opinion is removed and essentially vanishes.
The second thing to realise is that the data provided by China may very well be heavily distorted and terribly understated.

Like the way Iran has been handling this crisis, with so many deaths yet so few confirmed transmissions....the actual situation on the ground in China and Iran is any ones guess...
No info is available for North Korea other than rumor.

You are right. We the public, have no real idea of what is going on.

However, Governments with access to sophisticated surveillance capacity can be better informed.
So when a Government launches a significant health strategy that has no apparent empirical evidence to support it, it is highly suggestive that it is operating with intelligence info that we may not be privy to.

It is also worth noting that the WHO situation report for the 28th has not been published yet. It is over due. As to why, we can only speculate. The large number of organizations that require these daily reports will also be speculating as to the delay.
Perhaps a change in Global status from epidemic to pandemic is about to be announced.

edit: The report has finally been published a little late. Global Risk has been upgraded to "Very High"

Intelligent news papers?!! lol
WSJ reports pets are mildly/partially infected in Hong Kong and should be quarantined...lol

The Hong Kong government said pets of coronavirus patients must be quarantined, after a dog belonging to an infected person in the city tested mildly positive for the respiratory illness.​

So what do you think is happening on social media in the USA at the moment?
Unbelieveable!!!

"Sorry sir, you are not fully infected...next!" lol
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You are rambling. Try to get a grip.
 
James R said:
COVID-19 is worse than Ebola, in terms of the number of people it will kill.

One of Ebola's problems is precisely its high mortality rate. From a virus's point of view, it's no good if its hosts all immediately get sick and die. For the virus to spread widely, the ideal case is that a lot of hosts have mild or even no symptoms. Those hosts keep moving around and interacting with other potential hosts, thus ensuring the widespread transmission of the virus. Even better if some hosts (not to mention authorities trying to control the virus's spread) don't realise they are carriers of the virus.

It seems likely that the mortality rate for COVID-19 is 1 to 2%. In Lebanon, for example, with its 6 million people, we might then expect 60,000 to 120,000 deaths, assuming that the entire population contracts the virus. Those deaths are very unlikely to happen all at once. They will be spread over time. The same applies in every other nation.

If you want a reasonable comparison to COVID-19, consider ordinary influenza. COVID-19 is likely, over time, to become another kind of "flu" that we will all have to deal with on a regular basis. Initially, though, there will be a lot of deaths because most people won't have any immunity.
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Study of 72,000 COVID-19 patients finds 2.3% death rate
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate

The average EVD (Ebola virus disease) case fatality rate is around 50%. Case fatality rates have varied from 25% to 90% in past outbreaks.
https://www.afro.who.int/health-topics/ebola-virus-disease
​
Where are you getting your rates for comparison?
 
Quantum Quack said:
Do You think I am over reacting about an over reaction? lol
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You are simply just overreacting (yet again) and even alluding to conspiracy theories as a result (yet again).

Quantum Quack said:
Do you think people generally are over reacting about an over reaction?
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People just overreact in general. Take yourself as a prime example.

Quantum Quack said:
Perhaps you can tell our Government that they are over reacting?
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They are implementing plans. You are taking that and running screaming like the end of the world is nigh.

Quantum Quack said:
The first thing to realise is that the data being provided for the situation in China is unable to be verified, confirmed or considered as credible by normal means. Any Doctor or specialist that voices an opinion is removed and essentially vanishes.
The second thing to realise is that the data provided by China may very well be heavily distorted and terribly understated.

Like the way Iran has been handling this crisis, with so many deaths yet so few confirmed transmissions....the actual situation on the ground in China and Iran is any ones guess...
No info is available for North Korea other than rumor.

You are right. We the public, have no real idea of what is going on.

However, Governments with access to sophisticated surveillance capacity can be better informed.
So when a Government launches a significant health strategy that has no apparent empirical evidence to support it, it is highly suggestive that it is operating with intelligence info that we may not be privy to.
Click to expand...
They are implementing plans after their experiences with previous coronavirus outbreaks in the past in Australia and flu outbreaks in the years gone by. It's to make sure they have enough staff and equipment on standby should the need arise.

An analogy would be the recent Brisbane floods. The city was shut down, people evacuated early, when we knew the Brisbane River was going to flood and inundate the city. We prepared early, to allow for a quicker recovery time afterwards and to reduce risk to those who live in areas that are prone to flooding.

You are literally panicking. And in doing so, you are spreading false information, conspiracies and general fear for no reason whatsoever. Please calm down.

Quantum Quack said:
It is also worth noting that the WHO situation report for the 28th has not been published yet. It is over due. As to why, we can only speculate. The large number of organizations that require these daily reports will also be speculating as to the delay.
Perhaps a change in Global status from epidemic to pandemic is about to be announced.

edit: The report has finally been published a little late. Global Risk has been upgraded to "Very High"

Intelligent news papers?!! lol
WSJ reports pets are mildly/partially infected in Hong Kong and should be quarantined...lol

The Hong Kong government said pets of coronavirus patients must be quarantined, after a dog belonging to an infected person in the city tested mildly positive for the respiratory illness.
So what do you think is happening on social media in the USA at the moment?
Unbelieveable!!!

"Sorry sir, you are not fully infected...next!" lol
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For the love of all that is holy, calm down.

You are going to do yourself more harm than this virus could do to you at this rate.
 
Bells said:
You are simply just overreacting (yet again) and even alluding to conspiracy theories as a result (yet again).


People just overreact in general. Take yourself as a prime example.


They are implementing plans. You are taking that and running screaming like the end of the world is nigh.


They are implementing plans after their experiences with previous coronavirus outbreaks in the past in Australia and flu outbreaks in the years gone by. It's to make sure they have enough staff and equipment on standby should the need arise.

An analogy would be the recent Brisbane floods. The city was shut down, people evacuated early, when we knew the Brisbane River was going to flood and inundate the city. We prepared early, to allow for a quicker recovery time afterwards and to reduce risk to those who live in areas that are prone to flooding.

You are literally panicking. And in doing so, you are spreading false information, conspiracies and general fear for no reason whatsoever. Please calm down.


For the love of all that is holy, calm down.

You are going to do yourself more harm than this virus could do to you at this rate.
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ok... no problemo...

Time will tell. est 2 weeks.
 
billvon said:
"Hey Australia! Cool it with the overreaction! Travel bans don't really work."
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Especially when one considers the types of travel bans...

China and now Iran..

But nothing for Italy - which has more confirmed cases compared to Iran. Same goes for Japan and South Korea, as another prime example.

These travel bans seem to be very very selective.. Particularly the countries of origin.

Quantum Quack said:
ok... no problemo...

Time will tell. est 2 weeks.
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It's not the zombie apocalypse.
 
Bells said:
Especially when one considers the types of travel bans...

China and now Iran..

But nothing for Italy - which has more confirmed cases compared to Iran. Same goes for Japan and South Korea, as another prime example.

These travel bans seem to be very very selective.. Particularly the countries of origin.
Click to expand...

There may be some discriminatory motives at play here, but there are some very legitimate reasons to single out Iran and China. Both of those countries have particularly repressive governments which have a history of reacting poorly to crises and have made the current crisis much worse by repressing the spread of information and even outright denying the threat. Both of those countries also have substandard healthcare systems unfit to handle the situation, so it seems wise for precautions to be taken with their travellers.
 
Bells said:
Especially when one considers the types of travel bans...

China and now Iran..

But nothing for Italy - which has more confirmed cases compared to Iran. Same goes for Japan and South Korea, as another prime example.

These travel bans seem to be very very selective.. Particularly the countries of origin.
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According to Dutton its because of the lack of adequate reporting standards and a lack of transparency if I am not mistaken.
 
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CptBork said:
There may be some discriminatory motives at play here, but there are some very legitimate reasons to single out Iran and China. Both of those countries have particularly repressive governments which have a history of reacting poorly to crises and have made the current crisis much worse by repressing the spread of information and even outright denying the threat. Both of those countries also have substandard healthcare systems unfit to handle the situation, so it seems wise for precautions to be taken with their travellers.
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Given this Government, there are definitely discriminatory motives when it comes to the travel ban for Iran.

The Morrison government will put a travel ban on people coming from Iran from Sunday due to the country's "high death rate" from coronavirus as it tries to stem the flow of the disease into Australia.

But Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy played down the likelihood of more bans for other countries, explaining "it's not possible to further isolate Australia", and that the focus should be on detection and containment instead.​
 
Given the situation in Italy, I am wondering why there is no Australian travel ban on Italy, similar to the ones imposed on China and Iran.
 
Vociferous said:
Study of 72,000 COVID-19 patients finds 2.3% death rate
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate

The average EVD (Ebola virus disease) case fatality rate is around 50%. Case fatality rates have varied from 25% to 90% in past outbreaks.
https://www.afro.who.int/health-topics/ebola-virus-disease
​
Where are you getting your rates for comparison?
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What do you think comparing CFRs is going to tell you about how many people it will kill?
For example, sporadic CJD has a CFR of 100% - it is invariably fatal. Yet only 90 people in the UK died from it in 2014 (https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/creutzfeldt-jakob-disease-cjd/).
 
billvon said:
Most likely the virus will peak in a few weeks to a month and start to decline, like most other new viruses.
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Unlikely. The math says otherwise.

That is, when it declines it won't keep declining - the busts as well as the booms will be temporary. It's too contagious, not lethal enough to burn out in pockets like Ebola, and has lots of dense population centers to invade yet (most of the US is still open, for example, mobile and incompetently governed - a free fire zone for something like this).

More likely it will become globally endemic, either by becoming less lethal or by becoming less symptomatic in carriers, and vanish only upon being put down by some kind of global vaccine/immunization operation (like measles or smallpox).
 
iceaura said:
Unlikely. The math says otherwise.

That is, when it declines it won't keep declining - the busts as well as the booms will be temporary. It's too contagious, not lethal enough to burn out in pockets like Ebola, and has lots of dense population centers to invade yet (most of the US is still open, for example, mobile and incompetently governed - a free fire zone for something like this).

More likely it will become globally endemic, either by becoming less lethal or by becoming less symptomatic in carriers, and vanish only upon being put down by some kind of global vaccine/immunization operation (like measles or smallpox).
Click to expand...


I feel you are correct, that global transmission is inevitable but much can be achieved by ensuring it's global spread is as slow as possible, allowing medical facilities to keep up with demand better and allow a vaccine to be produced ( est. by some to be between 12 -18 months away) and made available for distribution.
 
Pertinent notes:
  • The virus persist after recovery for about 2 weeks. Recovered patients are encouraged to self isolate for 14 days after recovery. ( Contagion in a recovered patient is considered very low but may be achieved with intimate contact)
  • Reinfection has not been ruled out.
  • The virus remains active for about 48 hours on surfaces.
  • There are many critical knowledge areas that are unknown at this stage.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-spread-after-recovery.html

Another good article worth having a look at can be found:
https://ama.com.au/article/update-novel-coronavirus-covid-19


Cases outside China grew by 18.21% in last 24 hours. ( WHO report 2020-03-02)
Most of which has occurred in
  • South Korea 4212 (476)
  • Italy 1689(561)
  • Iran 978 (385)

Notes:
Iran appears to be reporting better. Has received vital assistance from the USA ( radio reports claim)
 
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Anyone got any knowledge on whether gargling with warm salt water is beneficial for this virus ? I have read that it is helpful for all viruses in shortening the duration of the illness.

Would that imply a lessening of mortality rates,?

Apparently it may be the chlorine that is "active ingedient" and seemingly it may dehydrate the region ,flushing out the virus.

Is there much science in this,does anyone know?( Not my explation ,I have no knowledge except that I have always done this )
 
Aussie Winter and flu season just around the corner: Get your flu vaccine shots and practise reasonable hygiene and things should be OK.With travel bands etc, it is far better to be safe then sorry and take all necessary precautions until more is known about this thing and/or a vaccine is developed.
 
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