Corona Virus 2019-nCoV

[Quantum Quack]

26th, February, 2020

Using WHO situation reports:https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0226-sitrep-37-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=6126c0a4_2

Daily (24hour) Transmission growth outside of China was est:

• 2020-02-21 : 11.84%
• 2020-02-22 : 16.83%
• 2020-02-23 : 26.17%
• 2020-02-24 : 16.97%
• 2020-02-25 : 18.84%
• 2020-02-26 : 15.73%

Hot spots:

South Korea:
Confirmed 1261 (New 284 ) 24 hour Growth : 22.52%

Iran:
Confirmed : 139
Mortality : 19
Notes:
Mortality rate suggests that the actual number of symptomatic persons is not being reported correctly.

People on the street I met here in Melbourne are all concerned that this virus is a man made genetically edited virus primarily targeting ethnic Chinese. Mixing concerns about genetic engineering developments with racism/xenophobia.
According to my research this virus IS NOT artificially contrived. ( according to some specialists)

However there is significant serious and general concern that gene editing technologies are or will be weaponized now or in the future.

Even luckier it's not the Rage virus, the one that created all those zombies in World War Z.

Perhaps the world should treat this current crisis as a "drill" for some future more dramatic weaponized viral crisis?

After all, the terrorist organizations ( including white supremacists, neo nazis, etc) are watching and learning no doubt...

 

[billvon]

Time to get picky...

The mortality rate, as I understand it, is much lower than that. The mortality rate of something is the number of people likely to die in a given population over a given time. So the mortality rate of flu per year in the US might be seen to be c.80k deaths divided by 250m people etc. The mortality rate takes into consideration how pervasive the disease is as well. Ebola, for example, currently has a mortality rate of zero in the UK.

The 1 to 2% figure for COVID-19 is, it seems, the case fertility rate (CFR), i.e. the chance of dying if you have a confirmed case of the virus.

I'll add a few more important factors:

-The basic reproduction number; how many cases each infected person causes in a given population without precautions. This in turn has a lot of underlying causes/modifiers, like population density, average baseline hygiene, season and weather.

-The generation time; how long it takes from person A being infected to the next person being infected. The faster this is, the faster the disease spreads.

-The asymptomatic infectious period. Before symptoms, many public health measures are ineffective.

It's a combination of these factors that determines how fast a disease spreads, how much of the population it effects, and how effective public health measures are.

So who knows, it may be that the overall mortality rate of this and the flu combined remains the same, only we’re needing to be more vigilant and hygiene conscious etc.

Yep. And if that carries over into everyday life, mortality goes down for everyone even when there's no pandemic.

 

[Quantum Quack]

The Australian Government yesterday announced it is treating the situation as a pandemic and activated emergency planning. This appears to coincide with the concerns expressed in the USA from the Trump Administration as per Trump's recent public address on the issue.
Yet we have relatively few confirmed cases and little growth of transmission. Total 23, no deaths and no new cases for awhile now.
Over reaction?
src:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...emergency-plan-for-covid-19-outbreak/12006960
and
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...-coronavirus-pandemic-emergency-plan/12005734

Re: Situation Report 27th-02-2020
WHO Daily (24hour) Transmission growth outside of China was est:

• 2020-02-21 : 11.84%
• 2020-02-22 : 16.83%
• 2020-02-23 : 26.17%
• 2020-02-24 : 16.97%
• 2020-02-25 : 18.84%
• 2020-02-26 : 15.73%
• 2020-02-27 : 20.36%

Question:
Are the world's authorities over reacting to the threat of COVID-19 given that the common flu is apparently 6 times worse?

How big a role does the lack of any vaccine effect their decision making?

 

[sculptor]

...

People on the street I met here in Melbourne are all concerned that this virus is a man made genetically edited virus primarily targeting ethnic Chinese. Mixing concerns about genetic engineering developments with racism/xenophobia.
...

PLease stop repeating that rumor.
.................
as any propagandist will tell you, repeat a lie often enough, and pretty soon, people start believing it.

 

[Quantum Quack]

PLease stop repeating that rumor.
.................
as any propagandist will tell you, repeat a lie often enough, and pretty soon, people start believing it.

from what I hear many people already do...

 

[Quantum Quack]

Here is the rub,

1. About 400 million people placed in lock down quarantine ( Mainland China)
2. At least two hospitals built in 14 days ( mainland China)
3. A number of cruise ships stranded under quarantine.
   
4. Heavy border restrictions (Global - general)
5. Quarantine zones established in Australia.
6. 45 minutes(?) of Trump's address to the nation.
7. Australia activates emergency pandemic plans. Breaks from WHO recommendations. Aligns with USA.
   
8. Video and uploaded info suggests situation in China much worse than published.
9. Other rather dramatic measures taken.

and all for just a bug that is reportedly less serious that the common flu...
( Ever seen people being arrested for simply having the flu before?)

Either the world has gone crazy and is over reacting or we simply aren't being told the real deal.

People are not stupid. They see radical actions being taken by Governments all round the globe that are in many ways unprecedented and can not help but wonder WTF....
Every time the Governments make some sort of dramatic action, it fuels the hysteria and the concern that information is being with held.

so...

Either the world's authorities are reacting appropriately for a threat yet to made public. ( avoiding panic )
or
They including mainstream media are over reacting...and creating panic.

which?

Example:
Simply put, Australia has no real need to activate emergency Pandemic planning.
So why have they?

 

[Sarkus]

Are the world's authorities over reacting to the threat of COVID-19 given that the common flu is apparently 6 times worse?

Even though people have tried to explain how comparing just the mortality rate of a widespread and uncontained virus, with a virus outbreak that is in its infancy, where quarantine measures are in place, is a flawed measure of how much "worse" a virus is, you still try to use that flawed measure to ask sensationalist questions. You don't work for one of those trashy newspapers, do you?

You would be better judging how "worse" a virus outbreak is by its potential if the authorities don't put the measures in place. And this virus might have the potential to be so much worse than the flu, depending on the factors that others have noted... that is why they are reacting the way they are. Whether it turns out to be an over-reaction will be for history to inform us, but based on what we currently know, I'd say it is a pretty fair reaction. And that's how it should be judged.

Sure, the flu kills more, is/should be a more immediate concern for almost everyone on the planet, and we should of course do everything we can to prevent catching it each year. But nothing sharpens the mind by asking what would happen if a similar virus came along that can potentially kill 20x more people. There were probably people in 1918 wondering if governments were overreacting about influenza compared to, say, the number of people dying of heart disease. And they'd be wondering about it right up to the point that millions started dying. And then they'd likely criticise the authorities for not doing enough.

So I'm happy for them to do what they need to so as to try to nip it in the bud, so that we never have to find out just how bad it could be. If it ends up burning itself out, like SARS did, then great, we can breathe a sigh of relief. And yes, it's garnered a lot of attention, but that is based on its potential (which is still somewhat unknown) rather than what it has achieved thus far.

 

[Quantum Quack]

Even though people have tried to explain how comparing just the mortality rate of a widespread and uncontained virus, with a virus outbreak that is in its infancy, where quarantine measures are in place, is a flawed measure of how much "worse" a virus is, you still try to use that flawed measure to ask sensationalist questions. You don't work for one of those trashy newspapers, do you?

Working from a common social perspective to highlight the communities concerns and hopefully find a balance is why I am asking the questions I am.
Besides, it is worth noting that trashy newspapers are as popular as they are for a reason..and no I do not work for any one.
I personally tend to believe that most of the recent declarations are a result of Governments attempting to minimize hysteria, indicating that fears expressed are being taken seriously and that they are in control of the situation.
Unfortunately even our medical professionals are not immune to the current wave of hysteria moving through the population.
For example - according to media sources:
Able bodied retired Doctors, nurses, paramedics, are being called upon to prepare to re-enter the profession as activated reservists, knowing fully well that the COVID-19 case load here in Australia is almost zero currently.
While this may very well be proven to be a necessary precaution, as it stands, it appears to be unnecessary today and invites the questions I have outlined above.

At present the case load is close to zero so it begs the question what exactly are they scared of?

It is the nature of collective paranoia ( Hysteria ) to answer the question in sometimes bizarre ways.
The Government knows this so again it begs the question ....why are they fueling paranoia?

Maybe it is more about being damned if you do and damned if you don't so err on the side of caution regardless?

 

[Quantum Quack]

 

[LaurieAG]

Simply put, Australia has no real need to activate emergency Pandemic planning.
So why have they?

You are from Melbourne so you should know what is down the garden path in your own backyard.

The Australian Broadcasting Commission (ABC) has its head offices there and it likes to portray anything that the present federal government does in negative tones while it does the opposite for the current federal opposition. If our federal government doesn't make this announcement it will be mindlessly pilloried for the next month.

 

[Quantum Quack]

You are from Melbourne so you should know what is down the garden path in your own backyard.

The Australian Broadcasting Commission (ABC) has its head offices there and it likes to portray anything that the present federal government does in negative tones while it does the opposite for the current federal opposition. If our federal government doesn't make this announcement it will be mindlessly pilloried for the next month.

perhaps you are correct and as I posted:

Maybe it is more about being damned if you do and damned if you don't so err on the side of caution regardless?

However after listening to a few Government interviews since posting earlier, it becomes apparent that the Government is expecting the pandemic to become obvious any time now. The use of words like when it arrives rather than if it arrives etc... indicate that the government is almost 100% certain of it's arrival in the very near future ( est 2 weeks or so)
So whether the news media's bias is relevant or not is not so much the question but providing solid and decisive leadership for an expected health crisis is.

If, as the PM has clearly suggested that the arrival of this pandemic is inevitable and imminent then what is being put in place is entirely appropriate. IMO.
The PM is obviously privy to intelligence that we may not be privy to. ( given his confidence that the issue is imminent.)

Another complication that I am sure the authorities are aware of but not commonly entertained is that we are entering our flu season ( April to October ) and that symptoms of common flu are similar to COVID-19.

The problem is in determining which patients are COVID and which are simply flu. Leading to serious overwhelming of ER's , medical clinics and surgeries...with patients mixing with either...
How they are going to deal with this massive confusion is any ones guess but I would be sure that they are considering this issue seriously.

 

[Sarkus]

and all for just a bug that is reportedly less serious that the common flu...
( Ever seen people being arrested for simply having the flu before?)

Either the world has gone crazy and is over reacting or we simply aren't being told the real deal.

And there you go with the sensationalism again!
The world has not gone crazy, nor is the “real deal” being withheld from us. Sure, some countries may be underreporting, but on the whole the information about this virus is out in the public domain.

People are not stupid. They see radical actions being taken by Governments all round the globe that are in many ways unprecedented and can not help but wonder WTF....
Every time the Governments make some sort of dramatic action, it fuels the hysteria and the concern that information is being with held.

You start this section with “People are not stupid” and then conclude it by describing a way in which said people are being stupid.

Example:
Simply put, Australia has no real need to activate emergency Pandemic planning.
So why have they?

”No real need” is your subjective view. Presumably those that the government are listening to are somewhat more expert in this field. But, well, we are talking Australia so maybe not.
If you only plan for a guest when they are already sitting at your dinner table and eating your food, you’ve left it too late, especially if there’s a risk they have a voracious appetite. Surely better to plan when there’s a risk they might be arriving, and stock up on food just in case?

 

[exchemist]

Here is the rub,

1. About 400 million people placed in lock down quarantine ( Mainland China)
2. At least two hospitals built in 14 days ( mainland China)
3. A number of cruise ships stranded under quarantine.
   
4. Heavy border restrictions (Global - general)
5. Quarantine zones established in Australia.
6. 45 minutes(?) of Trump's address to the nation.
7. Australia activates emergency pandemic plans. Breaks from WHO recommendations. Aligns with USA.
   
8. Video and uploaded info suggests situation in China much worse than published.
9. Other rather dramatic measures taken.

and all for just a bug that is reportedly less serious that the common flu...
( Ever seen people being arrested for simply having the flu before?)

Either the world has gone crazy and is over reacting or we simply aren't being told the real deal.

People are not stupid. They see radical actions being taken by Governments all round the globe that are in many ways unprecedented and can not help but wonder WTF....
Every time the Governments make some sort of dramatic action, it fuels the hysteria and the concern that information is being with held.

so...

Either the world's authorities are reacting appropriately for a threat yet to made public. ( avoiding panic )
or
They including mainstream media are over reacting...and creating panic.

which?

Example:
Simply put, Australia has no real need to activate emergency Pandemic planning.
So why have they?

I suggest you drop the insinuations and conspiracy theories and read a few intelligent newspapers.

It's a new bug that can cause viral pneumonia and can kill esp. elderly people. Nobody yet knows exactly its virulence, modes of transmission or propensity to change over time as it spreads and (potentially) mutates. Because it is new, there is no vaccine yet. We live in a world with far more international exchange of people than in any previous era in history. Given the foregoing, it makes sense to try to slow down its spread and buy time, to learn more about it and to get preparation of a vaccine under way. That is what is going on.

As with all fast-moving incidents requiring rapid reaction, governments and organisation react in a variety of ways, and a certain amount of conflicting information and advice is inevitable.

I'm not sure what you mean by "activating planning". Planning is what you do to get ready, before you start taking action. It seems to me that is exactly what the authorities should be doing.

It really does not help to hyperventilate about something more serious being hidden. There is no reason at all to suspect anything of the kind.

 

[sculptor]

US stock markets seem worried about a potential pandemic
no panic yet
but
anyone who shorted this past week has done well
The dow should dip to down 14% today.........?......
(I'm expecting a late day bounce as shorts cover) .... ?....

 

[billvon]

Either the world has gone crazy and is over reacting or we simply aren't being told the real deal.

Because people like you are demanding the overreaction.

Most likely the virus will peak in a few weeks to a month and start to decline, like most other new viruses. It's a pattern we have seen dozens of times before. In case it doesn't, the government is preparing for a bigger problem. (And doing some things that are good ideas in any case, like fast tracking vaccines and monitoring airports and ports.)

 

[Quantum Quack]

Because people like you are demanding the overreaction.

Most likely the virus will peak in a few weeks to a month and start to decline, like most other new viruses. It's a pattern we have seen dozens of times before. In case it doesn't, the government is preparing for a bigger problem. (And doing some things that are good ideas in any case, like fast tracking vaccines and monitoring airports and ports.)

Do You think I am over reacting about an over reaction? lol
Do you think people generally are over reacting about an over reaction?
Perhaps you can tell our Government that they are over reacting?

 

[exchemist]

Do You think I am over reacting about an over reaction? lol
Do you think people generally are over reacting about an over reaction?
Perhaps you can tell our Government that they are over reacting?

If, as you say, they are readying the plans for what they might need to do, that is not overreaction. Do try to calm down.

 

[Quantum Quack]

I suggest you drop the insinuations and conspiracy theories and read a few intelligent newspapers.

It's a new bug that can cause viral pneumonia and can kill esp. elderly people. Nobody yet knows exactly its virulence, modes of transmission or propensity to change over time as it spreads and (potentially) mutates. Because it is new, there is no vaccine yet. We live in a world with far more international exchange of people than in any previous era in history. Given the foregoing, it makes sense to try to slow down its spread and buy time, to learn more about it and to get preparation of a vaccine under way. That is what is going on.

As with all fast-moving incidents requiring rapid reaction, governments and organisation react in a variety of ways, and a certain amount of conflicting information and advice is inevitable.

I'm not sure what you mean by "activating planning". Planning is what you do to get ready, before you start taking action. It seems to me that is exactly what the authorities should be doing.

It really does not help to hyperventilate about something more serious being hidden. There is no reason at all to suspect anything of the kind.

The first thing to realise is that the data being provided for the situation in China is unable to be verified, confirmed or considered as credible by normal means. Any Doctor or specialist that voices an opinion is removed and essentially vanishes.
The second thing to realise is that the data provided by China may very well be heavily distorted and terribly understated.

Like the way Iran has been handling this crisis, with so many deaths yet so few confirmed transmissions....the actual situation on the ground in China and Iran is any ones guess...
No info is available for North Korea other than rumor.

You are right. We the public, have no real idea of what is going on.

However, Governments with access to sophisticated surveillance capacity can be better informed.
So when a Government launches a significant health strategy that has no apparent empirical evidence to support it, it is highly suggestive that it is operating with intelligence info that we may not be privy to.

It is also worth noting that the WHO situation report for the 28th has not been published yet. It is over due. As to why, we can only speculate. The large number of organizations that require these daily reports will also be speculating as to the delay.
Perhaps a change in Global status from epidemic to pandemic is about to be announced.

edit: The report has finally been published a little late. Global Risk has been upgraded to "Very High"

Intelligent news papers?!! lol
WSJ reports pets are mildly/partially infected in Hong Kong and should be quarantined...lol

The Hong Kong government said pets of coronavirus patients must be quarantined, after a dog belonging to an infected person in the city tested mildly positive for the respiratory illness.​

So what do you think is happening on social media in the USA at the moment?
Unbelieveable!!!

"Sorry sir, you are not fully infected...next!" lol

 

[Quantum Quack]

If, as you say, they are readying the plans for what they might need to do, that is not overreaction. Do try to calm down.

You need to review the video I embedded in post #149 and form your own opinion.
Readying the plan is not the same as activating it...and according to the PM the plan has been activated.

 

[Quantum Quack]

Who SR 28th-02-2020

• Globally 83 652 confirmed (1358 new) growth: 1.62%**
  
• China 78 961 confirmed (331 new) 2791 deaths (44 new)
• Outside of China 4691 confirmed (1027 new) 51 countries (5 new) 67 deaths (10 new) growth: 21.89%**

WHO RISK ASSESSMENT

• China Very High
  
• Regional Level Very High
  
• Global Level Very High

**My notes

Notes:
Nigeria and Algeria have reported cases. (1 each)
Brazil also has reported confirmed cases.
The real concern is not the reported cases but the unreported cases.