Note:
Please read my entire post so that an over view can be gleaned before responding ( if any).
This CoVid hasn't been around long enough to yet settle into a pattern long enough to know whether it will be a seasonal or not. At the moment we have been going through lockdowns, restricted movements, especially internationally etc. Whether the Covid19 is seasonal or not will so far have been lost in the noise of all those actions we have put in place to try to limit its spread. We will only really know the nature of the beast that we will be living with when we are living with it in whatever "normal" our day-to-day becomes. I.e. until there are no more lockdowns, no more travel restrictions, and life gets back to "normal", we won't know the steady-state of this virus - in terms of seasonal or not.
If it turns out to be seasonal then we have an example to follow in the existing "seasonal flu".
If it is not seasonal then it actually becomes easier: if we know how long a vaccine is effective for (which we will know through data of when people unfortunately catch the virus compared to when they were last vaccinated) then we know how many vaccine shots people need per year, and processes are set up to simply vaccinate people all year round. If it is one shot needed per year then we can spread the vaccinations across all 12 months rather than trying to squeeze into the period before the relevant season.
Of course there are so many unknowns but at the moment, globally, there appears to be no significant seasonal variation and also of course we do not know whether the virus will mutate again, although we could safely predict that it most likely will. We also do not know when another global pandemic with another different virus could sweep the world.
However we do know that deforestation, climate change and globalization, with it's inherent massive increase in affordable mass tourism means that just about any local Category 3 or 4 (CDC risk rating - labs) epidemic can quickly turn into a pandemic.
If a vaccination program was used in conjunction with strong social distancing measures the contagion would die off would it not?
No reproduction = End of virus
Unless you are suggesting the virus may remain dormant some how and can not be tested for...??
The first is simply not an option. Seriously. It mutates and spreads too quickly. As soon as health services can cope with the run-rate of infections and serious cases needing hospital treatment, societies will open up again.
In societies that are naive enough to believe that they can control the exponential reproduction rate, it is inevitable that they will go from lock down to lock down until they realise that the only course is eradication with the help of vaccines etc.
In other words what I would be recommending is that the vaccine be used to aid in the eventual eradication of covid-19 and not consider the seasonal flu as a realistic comparison. ( mainly because the CFR is so high, the highly contagious nature of it and the sheer cost of running so many devoted ICU beds and ancillary services)
It is only because we believe that people will ultimately fail to exercise the restraint (especially regarding entertainment -hospitality industry) necessary to allow a lock down to be successful ( A success demonstrated in Victoria Australia recently)
Right now even though there has been no locally transmitted disease we are still required to wear masks and exercise social distancing but we know that it is relatively safe to go to a restaurant or cafe but not necessarily so for large gatherings such as sporting events and festivals etc. Schools are functioning. The health system has returned to a new normal with significant surge capacity if the need occurs.
It is worth noting that vaccination levels in 1st world nations are not 100% of the population nor are they 100% effective. If even 40% remain vulnerable at any time then the exponential growth factor will quickly over whelm medical facilities especially because the population typically becomes complacent once they are deluded into thinking they have it under control and social distancing activities reduces.
The idea of vaccine only reliance, only works for nations that have the resources to vaccinate thoroughly and continually, with a willing, proactive and compliant population. That being said much of the world's population will remain vulnerable most of the time...
Basically, the idea of multiple vaccination given in a single year on a permanent ongoing basis, even if the virologist could keep up with vaccine development is highly unlikely to succeed IMO.
The societal change that would be needed would be massive.
After watching that movie Contagion and noting the bracelets that had to be worn after vaccination I am not sure the 1st world population is ready to be permanently wearing a vaccine record on their ankles or wrists.
There is now an effective response: vaccination. It is just a matter of ramping up the initial rollout and then putting in place a process to do so on a regular basis - as they do with seasonal flu (albeit with timings adapted to the seasonal nature).
In places that offer subsidized health care perhaps but places where the cost of the vaccine is not subsidized like the USA it may not be.
btw:
(Rough - wholesale)
Moderna vaccine : costs about $32 USD per shot.
Pfizer vaccine: costs about $20 USD per shot.
Astra-Zeneca : costs about $2 USD per shot
Johnson and Johnson : cost about $10 USD per shot
Add in health care worker costs in delivering. Logistical costs etc
You do know that NZ and Australia are both looking toward vaccination as the long-term strategy, right? NZ has bought enough vaccines for the entire country, and they will be free to all people.
No country can expect to live in isolation on this matter, unless they intend to maintain 14-day quarantine on all arriving passengers forever more. Which simply doesn't make sense when you rely on tourism to any great degree. When the rest of the world opens their borders and as Covid becomes "normalised", those isolated countries will start to suffer.
Unfortunately here in Australia, the States are focused on eradication and succeeding where as the Federal Government until recently was taking a more relaxed approach which has led to the importation of the virus for over seas.
Sure nations that do not rely on vaccines because they have successfully eradicated the virus will remain isolated from a world, a world that inevitably will have to do the hard yards of eradication any how...
Vaccination is the future, just as it is with seasonal flu.
Comparing the two viruses is half the problem.
1918 Spanish flu had a R0 factor of about 1.4 to 2.8
Covid -19 has an estimated R0 of about 5.7 ( As of July 2020 ) (
CDC)
The current R0 for the recent UK strain is yet to be estimated but assume a 70% increase at the least.
It seems to me that eradication with the aid of a vaccine will be the only alternative in the longer term. Mainly because this prevents or at least minimizing the anticipated mutations from occurring.
The UK has been a simmering petri dish for far too long. Too much viral load over an extended time ( due to complacency) can only lead one way with this bug. It is highly likely that new more virulent strains will be seen coming out of the USA, Russia, India and Brazil as well.
Now, if the virus didn't mutate - much as smallpox didn't mutate - then eradication would be possible. But for a mutating virus like this... it's here to stay.
We will have agree to disagree. If it stays it will continue to mutate ( most likely) possibly rendering vaccines as useless in the longer term)
The chances were gone as soon as it was released from Wuhan (or wherever it originated) and not fully contained in those first few days, and when governments were too soft (in hindsight) in their initial stances, and when it was shown that it would mutate. Subsequent mutations have simply reduced the chances from 1 in a billion chance to 1 in a billion-and-one chance of being able to eradicate it.
Whether we like it or not, the only nations that will have a functional economy and society will be the ones who successfully eradicate the virus and maintain extreme cat 4 border quarantines.
As with climate change it is a new world order we didn't see coming (?) and one we have to adapt to as a matter of urgency.
Sure, we could theoretically eradicate it. The same way we could eradicate every virus for which we have a vaccine.
But once we control it to a point where health systems can cope with the level of infections, kiss goodbye any incentive to do so.
Polio has been eradicated in most of the world (almost all of the world) and perhaps after a few years of zero new cases they can stop the vaccination routine except for those traveling to or from unknowable situations.
Given the extremes involved with Covid-19 the Health systems will never be able to fully cope ( assuming general social complacency is maintained)
How many times will the UK go into lock down before people start to realise how important it is to actually succeed in achieving what the lock down is intended to do?
That being to stop the spread and kill the virus.
