Update Melbourne Victoria (State pop: 6.4 million):
Posted mainly to make use of this situation as a COVID case that may be useful in learning and developing COVID containment and management strategies.
Today they announced that the new case load of confirmed cases has continued it's trend downwards with only 41 cases reported statewide.
Notes (Observatons/opinion):
While the level 4 lock down on Melbourne ( pop: 4.9 million) has proven to be effective in containing and reducing community transmission it has on this occasion ( 2nd wave) taken longer than the first wave.
This is the second time we have had to endure severe restrictions on movement and social connections.
The first time the national community managed very well in coping with restrictions and transmission curves reflected their commitment. This time, the second time, the impacted communities are more resistant to compliance and lock down fatigue is significantly evident. The ability to flatten and then push down the curve is reduced as people quite naturally IMO become more restless and complacent.
The economic cost is quite staggering and people are anxious to save their jobs and businesses putting further pressure on compliance.
While most people know that there really is no choice in this, some tend to feel that now that the case load is so low we can relax and somehow the transmission will not exponentially increase. From a behavioral perspective the situation of COVID transmission could rapidly deteriorate causing further restrictions and extended economic loss associated.
Many people including media tend to think that it is a money vs health issue when it fact it can only be a health issue, because with out the health there is no money.
The Federal Government is focused on the economy where as the Victoria State Government is focused on the health. This battle between states and Federal is typical world wide and not just the province of Australia.
There is a strong potential that the States will succumb to Federal pressure and relax border restrictions for the sake of economic urgency but the problem is that it is the long term economic health that is at stake and further
hard solution procrastination will only mean that both individual health and economic health will continue to deteriorate as further future lock downs become necessary.
Vexation:
This vexation is mainly because of the exponential nature of transmissions that can only be prevented by significant restrictions on movement and social connections.
Added to this are
- the unknown variables of asymptomatic carriers,
- Community transmission ( that which is not imported from over seas)
- Increased (%) airborne transmission, loss of trained medical staff, and
- The rebellion against isolation caused by social distancing, in the form of potentially contagious hot spots due to illegal mass gatherings ( protests, parties, entertainment etc)
- The inability to adequately contact trace once case numbers exceed a 10-20 thresh hold in any given outbreak. ( regardless of the resources employed)
The bottom line is that as a community we can not be half hearted about quarantine provisions. Whether this is voluntary or enforced is not so much the point. Half hearted-ness only leads to extending this global crisis with it's associated massive health and economic losses.