China's Emergence As A Global Superpower

[quadraphonics]

From what I have read that is because there are so many more Chinese, at least, (don't know about Indians) trying to go to graduate science schools for every opening. I.e. almost ALL who end up in a US graduate school tried and failed to get in to one or more in China.

LOL riiiiiight.

Probably would be correct if you switched the names of the countries there, though.

Try to find some real numbers for 2008 or later relating to US/Chinese technical migration.

How about you do that, and then if I want to dispute such numbers I'll maybe go to the trouble to find some myself?

I have read that many US grad in sciences can't get any job that uses their training so are going to Asia (or even Brazil) where there is a shortage of people with advanced technical degrees. I know there have been articles in my local paper that the economic troubles in the US have reversed the Brain Drain with Brazil. In fact many Brazilian who went to the USA five or so years ago are now are returning to Brazil to find work - and not just the technically advanced ones.

How about you actually cite some of this purported data, then?

Are you sure you re not just citing pre-crisis / pre2008 data?

I have yet to cite any data. And I'm not going to start, unless you actually back up your interjection of this question with some actual data. This whole "I say the US sucks, prove me wrong!!" game is for the birds. You want to have a data-driven discussion, go ahead and come up with some data to back the assertions that you've chosen to introduce. It's not for me to do your homework for you. You should have done all of that before even formulating your take on the situation, if you're actually serious about such standards of analysis and discourse.

 

[Billy T]

From what I have read that is because there are so many more Chinese, at least, (don't know about Indians) trying to go to graduate science schools for every opening. I.e. almost ALL who end up in a US graduate school tried and failed to get in to one or more in China.

Note the now bold graduate science schools. That is what I was specifically speaking of, not under graduates. Because of their new prosperity Chinese and Indian undergraduates in US universities are at an all time high both in the US and in China and India.
You replied:

LOL riiiiiight. Probably would be correct if you switched the names of the countries there, though.

The reason I said that is confirmed here:

“…Key source countries like China and India simply cannot meet domestic demand for higher education, and a rising middle class in those nations means more families have the money to send their children overseas to study. "There's still more talent out there than can be accommodated," says Peggy Blumenthal, executive vice president of the Institute of International Education, …” From: http://chronicle.com/article/Number-of-Foreign-Students-in/49142/ (from late 2009)

The same source continues with:
“…a survey this fall of 700 institutions {graduate & undergraduate} suggests a mixed picture: Half of the institutions reported foreign-student enrollment increases this year over last, while a quarter experienced declines. A second recent survey, by the Council of Graduate Schools, found that growth in the number of first-time international students in American graduate schools was flat. Enrollments from India and South Korea, two of the three largest sources of foreign students, declined.

Again recall I was speaking of graduate students (and even more narrowly science graduate students. Many Chinese and Indian graduate student are now more interested in learning business techniques - in getting an MBA, etc.) The link then continues:

“…"The question," says Debra W. Stewart, the council's president, "is the extent to which we can continue to rely on international students to feed our graduate schools." Victor C. Johnson, senior adviser for public policy at Nafsa: Association of International Educators, says the recent slowdown points to the need for a national strategy for international-student recruitment.

"We don't want to wake up one day and find out that, because we have not adopted a national policy, we're no longer competitive," Mr. Johnson says. "We need to respond before it's too late to do something." Other international educators, however, point out that the United States remains the top destination for foreign college students, despite efforts by colleges in Australia, Canada, and elsewhere to attract them. …”

IMHO, part of the reason the US remains the top choice is inertia reflecting the fact that years ago many of their professors and advisors were mainly educated in the USA. Another less importnt part is that relative to those other countries, the dollar is now weaker, so it is relatively cheaper to come to the US. Also, unquestionably still the top US science Graduate School, are second to none. They and the business graduate schools will have all the Chinese and Indian students they want to accept. It is in these two areas the China and India are most lacking, and China, at least knows it. China has budgeted to create “50 MITs or better” and is hiring away western top level professors, not all of whom are ethnic Chinese.

I too will not try more to find recent hard numbers, but only note the above downward trend was worrying the above named authorities in the fall of 2009. I think part of the possible drop in science graduate students coming to the US may be due to the fact post graduation jobs are now available, (great demand actually) in their home countries. Five or more years ago that was not the case, so an attraction of studying in US graduate school was the likely opportunity to stay and work after graduation.

The US has made this legally more difficult now as native born American have exerted pressure on Congress to “keep the limited number of good US jobs for Americans”; however, until China does greatly expand its graduate level science schools (as budgeted for and in progress) there will be Chinese trying to get into ones in the US after they could not get one of the very limited (compared to applicants) opening in China’s good science graduate school.

 

[quadraphonics]

Note the now bold graduate science schools. That is what I was specifically speaking of, not under graduates.

Yeah, I know.

Also, unquestionably still the top US science Graduate School, are second to none. They and the business graduate schools will have all the Chinese and Indian students they want to accept. It is in these two areas the China and India are most lacking, and China, at least knows it.

And that suggests exactly that those are the first-choice schools of the foreign talent in question.

China has budgeted to create “50 MITs or better” and is hiring away western top level professors, not all of whom are ethnic Chinese.

And best of luck to them with that. But such is easier said than done - it's not a simple matter of budgets. This isn't straightforward infrastructure development where cash and political will are sufficient to meet whatever grandiose plans one might care to announce.

I too will not try more to find recent hard numbers, but only note the above downward trend was worrying

There was no "downward trend" mentioned - the stuff you cited described flat international enrollment.

I think part of the possible drop in science graduate students coming to the US

Again, no such drop is in evidence.

Chinese trying to get into ones in the US after they could not get one of the very limited (compared to applicants) opening in China’s good science graduate school.

None of the data you have provided here suggests that international schools are a second choice to domestic ones. Indeed, your admission that said domestic schools are not even in the top tier strongly suggests otherwise.

Anyway, here's the official NSF data on international enrollment in science and engineering:

http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/gradpostdoc/

The latest data available is for 2008, and shows that such increased by 5.5% over 2007 (itself a record year), and fully 45% from 1999 to 2008. The growth for first-time enrollees in full-time S&E graduate studies increased 11% between 2007 and 2008. Growth in international post-docs in those fields was around 5%.

 

[Billy T]

... (1)And that suggests exactly that those are the first-choice schools of the foreign talent in question.

(2) And best of luck to them with that. But such is easier said than done - it's not a simple matter of budgets. This isn't straightforward infrastructure development where cash and political will are sufficient to meet whatever grandiose plans one might care to announce. ...

(3)The latest data available is for 2008, and shows that such increased by 5.5% over 2007 (itself a record year), and fully 45% from 1999 to 2008. The growth for first-time enrollees in full-time S&E graduate studies increased 11% between 2007 and 2008. Growth in international post-docs in those fields was around 5%.

On (1):
China does have few universities "second to none" BUT, thousands of Chinese try to get in for each one accepted, so fact that many who can afford to chose to study in a foreign school is mainly a reflection of lack of chance to attend very high quality school in China, which may have been their first choice. For obvious reasons, China is trying to keep more of its bright students at home - See my replies to both (2) & (3):

On (2):

I read today article by Howard W. French, (translated into Portuguese) that must have been in the New York Times a few days ago, so my translation back of parts into English is not exact and to save typing, I am also condensing the facts and ideas:

1) 58 year old Princeton U. prof (Andrew Yao), world leader in computer sciences, & Yale genetist Xu Tian, and nuclear physicist Yan Fujia are among the dozens highest level professors that China has already bought home to well equipped new labs in a "billions of dollars" plan to make 30 mainland universities "superior to Harvard." Money is no objective /problem thanks to the great trade surplus. Because of the low general wage levels etc the cost of the new buildings is less than US $50/ square foot.

2) Already each year China graduates in engineering alone: 442,000 new engineers, plus 48,000 with masters degrees, plus 8,000 Ph.D.s Since 1998, when Jiang Zemin began to transform higher education in China, it has been transformed. In 2004 alone, US$10.4 billion was spent on improving the graduate schools and "buying professors" from the world's best universities. Ex MIT's mathematician, Tian Gang is heading up a new advance math research center that will soon exceed western-trained "brain power" at Princeton’s Center for Advanced Studies, where Einstein et al worked.

Living outside of US, in a city with great news papers (They ought to be as they copy from all the world's best and have staff on site around the world.) one is not as "thought controlled" as in the US. Thus three year ago I became aware that western world has already lost engineering leadership to Asia and is in the process of losing scientific leadership during this generation as well. That is why I wrote Dark Visitor ...

From: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=911507&postcount=4 (Made in November 2005)

AFAIK, this drive to create many top level centers of higher education is continuing in full force, well funded. Especially after 4Q08, the offer of higher salaries, a new lab fully equipped to your specifications, dozens of bright eager Chinese students just waiting for you to come in world's most rapidly growing economy and education system, is very attractive to top level western researchers not all of who are even ethnic Chinese. (One who is not was named in the article my old 2005 post was based on but was not included in my condensation.) This program rarely makes anything but local university news as it is an old program and done, one professor at a time.

On (3): I agree, before the crash in last quarter of 2008, getting into a good US graduate school was very desirable because then they were very likely to get a good, high paying US job that used their technical education. I suspected that you would drag up pre-2009 data so warned you not to in my first post.

Conditions have drastically changed after 4Q08. Now even native born technical school graduate are being forced to take jobs that do not use their training. The immigration laws have also changed, making it very hard for a Chinese graduate to remain in the US, taking a job which a Native Born American needs. Thus, there has been a great drop in the bright Chinese student coming to the US graduate schools. - A concern expressed by the international experts I quoted in my prior post.

Also their and been a great increase in the number of native born graduate students finding first employment that uses their education in India, where language is English plus a huge number of previous Chinese graduates of good US scientific and technical schools, returning to China, often even after working in the US for many years. This is in part because there are more job opportunities for the well educated native speaker of Mandrin in China than in post 4Q08 USA (And the generous inducements mentioned in reply 2) but also because the desire to help their home land is is very strong now with most Chinese "ex-pats."

One of the first to return for this "help China grow" reason had his office just down the hall from mine at the Applied Physics Lab, at least 25 years ago. - Dr. Chin was a very respected theoretical physicist with some global standing. He had just become old enough to retire with full benefits and thus did not have any financial worries, especially when back in China. I went to his farewell lunch where he, in somewhat emotional voice, explained that he wanted to help China develop its education system (in physic) and had always wanted to be buried in his home town; so he was going back to do some good before that happened. I think he did have a Professorship waiting for him.

 

[Billy T]

See impressive 4000 ton Chinese frigate warship off Libyan coast in video at:
http://edition.cnn.com/video/#/video/world/2011/03/13/gps.china.flex.cnn This video also documents China's increasing sea power projection capacity, including some views of its first full aircraft carrier under construction , it stealth jets, etc.

This is the first time ever China has put warship into the Mediterranean. It was used, along with dozen of large air planes and several hired ferry boats to extract Chinese from Libya, and more than 2000 non-Chinese for nations that could not do so.

 

[Billy T]

... And best of luck to them with that. {building many MIT equal new universities} But such is easier said than done - it's not a simple matter of budgets. This isn't straightforward infrastructure development where cash and political will are sufficient to meet whatever grandiose plans one might care to announce. ...

I have already replied to this by re-posting one of my old post as point (2) of post 1124, that named names of top fight professors China is getting from the West. Here is one of the latest, with his reasons:

China’s drive to make at least 30 new MIT- level universities continues, one professor at a time:

“… Professor John Zarnecki from the UK's Open University has had an amazing career at the pinnacle of British space science. He's worked on a diverse group of missions, including Europe's Giotto probe which flew by Comet Halley in 1986, and on the development of Hubble. He also led the surface science instrument team on Huygens, the European spacecraft that landed on Saturn's moon Titan in 2005. But he's felt the wind of change, and is heading to China for several months a year to start working on the Asian giant's space programme.

He's being given a lab, people and money to work on space instrumentation. "They've offered me a visiting professorship at Beihang University, which is a new name for the Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics.” There's a good chance the products of this work will end up on China's Chang'e programme, which is exploring the Moon.

"The OU is encouraging me because, like a lot of UK universities, they recognise that China is the coming force and it's important to engage at all levels, from teaching to research. And whereas in the UK we are under tremendous pressure over resources, in China they're offering me a lab and giving me people. …I will be able to get on some great missions like Chang'e 3, 4 and 5. Here, we're talking about a lunar lander, a lunar rover and lunar sample return over the next three missions.

It's the sort of access British researchers could never have got any other way because the UK simply does not have the budget to launch these kinds of missions on its own. It looks increasingly likely that these opportunities will also now present themselves in China and India. Who'll grab opportunities? …”

{Billy T answers that question: The best and most experienced Professors of Western Universities and leaders of major Science Projects – Higher salaries, new labs equipped to your specification and dozens of bright eager students in a country with generous budgets for science is “an opportunity you can’t refuse.”}

From: http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/jonathanamos/2011/03/the-sun-rises-on-chinese-space.shtml

PS, As I noted before: China is going after he best, not just ethnic Chinese, but they are the easiest to steal away from western universities..

 

[livingin360]

I love China. At least they make a attempt at building a advanced collective society. They could do much better though.

 

[quadraphonics]

On (1):
China does have few universities "second to none"

Research universities? No, they don't. They don't even have a single research university in the top tier. They have a handful of universities that are highly thought of in undergraduate education - but still far behind the IIT system in that regard.

On (3): I agree, before the crash in last quarter of 2008, getting into a good US graduate school was very desirable because then they were very likely to get a good, high paying US job that used their technical education. I suspected that you would drag up pre-2009 data so warned you not to in my first post.

I posted the latest available data. If that's not good enough for you, then there's nothing to talk about.

Since we're apparently in the business of "warning" one another now, I'll warn you to stop demanding data that is not yet available - such a stilted expectation is not honorable.

The immigration laws have also changed, making it very hard for a Chinese graduate to remain in the US, taking a job which a Native Born American needs.

Not really - there was a law about bank hiring along those lines, but that's marginal to this phenomenon. There was a memorandum issued tightening requirements to clamp down on job-shop immigration (i.e., people getting H1-B's that were simply going to work on a temporary contract basis with companies on the other end of the country), but that is again a marginal phenomenon and not really relevant to the topic.

Thus, there has been a great drop in the bright Chinese student coming to the US graduate schools.

No, there hasn't. And you haven't produced any data that would suggest that there has been.

- A concern expressed by the international experts I quoted in my prior post.

That expert expressed concern that a preliminary report on international enrollment indicated it was flat - not declining. And it came from a person who has a vested interest in creating concern about such. I'll wait for the actual data to be released, before I credit this as anything more than hot air.

Also their and been a great increase in the number of native born graduate students finding first employment that uses their education in India, where language is English plus a huge number of previous Chinese graduates of good US scientific and technical schools, returning to China, often even after working in the US for many years. This is in part because there are more job opportunities for the well educated native speaker of Mandrin in China than in post 4Q08 USA (And the generous inducements mentioned in reply 2) but also because the desire to help their home land is is very strong now with most Chinese "ex-pats."

So what? Do you even have any data expressing how significant this stuff is?

One of the first to return for this "help China grow" reason had his office just down the hall from mine at the Applied Physics Lab, at least 25 years ago. - Dr. Chin was a very respected theoretical physicist with some global standing. He had just become old enough to retire with full benefits and thus did not have any financial worries, especially when back in China. I went to his farewell lunch where he, in somewhat emotional voice, explained that he wanted to help China develop its education system (in physic) and had always wanted to be buried in his home town; so he was going back to do some good before that happened. I think he did have a Professorship waiting for him.

The disposition of retired workers is not particularly relevant to the question. Where somebody retires, is of very little relevance to technological competitiveness.

I personally know literally dozens of US-educated technical workers from China and India. Exactly two of them have returned home - both to India, and both for exclusively family reasons. One later returned, once he realized that no worthwhile carreer was forthcoming there, despite his decades of experience and strong knowledge. The other really had no choice - his parents would have disowned him if he'd not returned, and they arranged a respectable job and wife for him. My Chinese colleagues look at me like I'm crazy when I ask whether they'll return home - many already have too many children for it to even be an option. Several have gotten US citizenship.

 

[quadraphonics]

“… Professor John Zarnecki from the UK's Open University has had an amazing career at the pinnacle of British space science. [...] But he's felt the wind of change, and is heading to China for several months a year to start working on the Asian giant's space programme.

Call me back when China starts attracting space talent from countries that actually have significant space programs to speak of. The "pinnacle of British space science" doesn't involve putting a man on the moon, or even participating in the ISS. That China can afford to attract somebody - part time - from a country that offers him basically no good opportunities to begin with, says more about Britain than China.

PS, As I noted before: China is going after he best, not just ethnic Chinese, but they are the easiest to steal away from western universities..

Duh, really? I thought China wanted to throw money at the least qualified candidates?

Point is that your example there is not one of them actually getting "the best." Try it again if they manage to poach some top talent from NASA or somesuch - until then, total backfire.

 

[Billy T]

To Quad:

I admit that the post crisis data on brain drain etc, is not yet available so I have only the fact that university graduates often after 2008 are finding it difficult to get US technical jobs they expected after graduation to support idea that the “brain drain” has reversed. So yes we will need to wait for the facts. I was only putting you on notice that pre economic crisis data would not impress me as still valid. As you can see below (in the less than month old graph) the relative strength in science of US and China is rapidly changing. As far as rate of China’s vs. US’s scientific advance is concerned, this graph tell it all:

Note graph is not giving the number of published papers, but the number of citations of published papers – much more an index of the importance of the papers. This graph is from: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12885271 and that article is entitled:

"China to overtake US on science in two years" with David Shukman, Science and environment correspondent of the BBC News as its author.

The research / study his article is based on considered only papers published in recognized international journals listed by the Scopus service of the publishers Elsevier. (I.e. does not include any Chinese only journals). The Study its self is called: “Knowledge, Networks and Nations”

To quote from the article, the study and its charts are a, “challenge to the traditional dominance of the United States, Europe and Japan."

BTW, as NASA, is winding down large parts of it space program, quite a few ethnic Chinese, who worked at NASA have already returned to work in China's space programs, (They are the best funded programs in the world.) but I read that more than a year ago so doubt if I could find a link now.

 

[Billy T]

China has arrived, at least in terms of beautiful girls in bikinis: See video (too long to watch all for most) at: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/video/2011-04/01/content_12262237.htm You need to let it run a minute or two before they appear. Probably a good idea to let it all down load, while you do other things and then step thru it as your interest dictates. Or if you want just to see about 50 beautiful ladies in bikinis in one continuous stream on the cat walk, drag the playing block to the 6 minutes position.

On the switch to a domestic based economy rapid progress is also being made (population's purchasing power rapidly growing):

"... Wage inflation has spread across China and is expected to continue in the coming years. In 2010, China’s average minimum wage rose about 23%. From 2004 to 2008, the average growth rate had been 18% each year. In one example I {Henry Zhang, CFA, Portfolio Manager, Matthews International Capital Management, LLC} came across during a recent visit to a metal component manufacturer with operations across China, an executive told me that six years ago, he was able to easily recruit workers for a monthly salary of about US$76. Now, it’s a challenge to find enough workers to hire for more than US$228 each month, he said. Earlier this month, China promulgated its 12th five-year plan, which offers a blueprint for its development strategies until 2015. One key government target is an aim to increase the minimum wage "by no less than an average of 13% each year." ..."

From: http://us.mg6.mail.yahoo.com/dc/launch?.gx=1&.rand=2c59eep56b31k


Billy T notes:
Inflation peaked at 5.1% a few months ago and is slowly declining now (and unlike the US food and fuel is included, so these gains in salary are very real. - again unlike the US where Joe American's purchasing power is in decline again.)

 

[Billy T]

"... Jim Rogers makes ​​no secret of his optimism about China's financial market. A guru whose global-investing credentials are numerous—his Quantum Fund was one of the first successful international funds—believes that China and Asia will become the center of the world in the next ten years, he said in an interview at the World MoneyShow Shanghai.

“We sold our house in New York in 2004 and moved to Singapore," he said. "Now my two daughters can speak very fluent Chinese. I will also open Chinese stock trading accounts for them.” ..."

from: http://www.moneyshow.com/investing/article/29/GlobalPer-22719/The-Next-10-Years-Belong-to-China

More of the same POV, but from banks:

"... China’s fourth interest-rate increase in less than six months is spurring investment strategists at four of the world’s biggest banks to say it’s time to buy stocks in the fastest-growing major economy. Credit Suisse Group AG boosted its 12-month forecast for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, predicting a 28 percent gain after the central bank raised its one-year lending rate by a quarter point to 6.31 percent on April 5. HSBC Holdings Plc increased its rating on China to “overweight,” while Macquarie Group Ltd. said investors should lift holdings. Citigroup Inc. advised buying options to bet on gains.

The recommendations, which follow bullish forecasts last month from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG, signal confidence that Premier Wen Jiabao’s government will curb the fastest inflation since 2008 without derailing growth in an economy forecast by the World Bank to expand 9 percent in 2011. ..."

From: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ayPJjWpoaIlM&pos=1

 

[Billy T]

China has first quater with a trade deficit in seven years:

"... Asia’s largest economy had a deficit of $1.02 billion in the first three months of the year compared with a surplus of $13.9 billion a year earlier... Imports jumped 32.6 percent to a quarterly record of $400.7 billion, helped by stronger domestic demand and higher global commodity prices...

Premier Wen Jiabao said last month exchange-rate reform must be gradual to maintain social stability, and that boosting domestic demand is the best way the nation can contribute. “This is a sign that China’s rebalancing* efforts are advancing more rapidly than many had thought and it will take some heat off the pressure for faster yuan gains,” said Shen Jianguang, a Hong Kong-based economist ...

The trade surplus was $196 billion in 2009, down from a record $295 billion in 2008, customs data show. The gap will decline this year as exporters come under pressure from rising labor and raw material costs and imports are supported by strong domestic demand, Shen said.

... Inbound crude oil shipments in the first quarter rose 12 percent by volume and 39 percent by value to $43.7 billion, according to today’s customs data. The cost of iron ore imports jumped 82.5 percent to $27.7 billion while the amount of metal climbed 14.4 percent.

“China is still facing strong pressure from imported inflation,” said Liu Li-Gang, an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group in Hong Kong who formerly worked for the World Bank. “While the authorities can use fiscal subsidies to offset this, the exchange rate tool is more effective to contain imported inflation.” ..."

From: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTiYqiuXfuO0&pos=1

*Note "rebalancing" is China's code word / term for "switching to a domestic economy" from one that exported mainly to the US and EU. Note also that China still plans to be a major global exporter, but to Asian nations and some others like Brazil and Australia that do not need to borrow funds to pay for their imports from China as they too are prospering.

Quick supporting summary by Billy T: China is switching to a more domestic based economy faster than most could imagine. The CCP knows that the US and EU are broke and can only buy China's exports if China, lends them the money to do so, but China knows those loans will be paid back by dollars of much lower purchasing power. (FED is "monetizing" the debt so many are buying gold and silver etc. to avoid losing purchasing power by holding dollars.) China too is trying to reduce its holdings of dollars, and the fraction of it GDP related to exports to US and EU. I.e. China is buying real assets it will need, paying now, up-front, for delivery contracts that require deliveries extending two or three decades into the future. - All this I have said many times, years ago, as predictions.

 

[fedr808]

I have to disagree billyt.

Your right that the US government is in debt (but what country isn't? Seriously, name ten).

But the US government aren't the ones buying cotton shirts and all the other loads of crud that the Chinese export.

Its the private industry that does, and there is no indication that the national debt has any sort influence over that.

BillyT, something tells me that your predictions required less skill, and more common sense.

 

[EmptyForceOfChi]

Must be all the organs they are harvesting from their convict population.


Peace

 

[Billy T]

... Your right that the US government is in debt (but what country isn't? Seriously, name ten).

Most are, but the important thing is how they will pay off bonds. In the US that is by printing dollars, which still have value although it is rapidly decreasing, wrt ALL other major currencies. Several other countries, like the US, have been living beyond their means by borrowing, not their local currency, but mainly dollars or Marks, etc. They can not pay their debts by destroying their currency as the US can and is doing. They must do what the US needs to do -tighten their belts and many are doing so, even with populations that are protesting in the streets. The US will just continue to print money until the dollar has much less value.

... But the US government aren't the ones buying cotton shirts and all the other loads of crud that the Chinese export.

If you can find a Chinese made cotton shirt for sale in the US, it probably was misplaced in the stock room a few years ago. Wages in China's coastal cities where such shirts were once made are up 40% in less than two years! China does not have "cheap labor" any more. China is not competitive with several other, mainly Asian, makers of low value added manufactured goods, like shirts, now.

In fact for the first quarter of this year China had a trade deficit. (Details and ref. in post 1133.) - Importing more than they export. Their demand is driving up the price of nearly everything. The state is not only raising the minimum wage (20% or so, I forget exact value) but also reducing the cost of many services, especially the out of pocket medical cost (was 70% of the total bill and now is about 35% - drop of 50% in less than two years also.) Thus not only are incomes way up, but expenses, except for food and housing are down. Thus the Chinese are no longer saving more than half their prior tiny salaries for medical cost etc. - this too is adding to the rapidly growing domestic demand.

... ... BillyT, something tells me that your predictions required less skill, and more common sense.

I agree, not much skill (at financial research etc.) is needed. What helps me is a wide set of sources of information, living in Brazil as I do. My local papers are great - they steal from all the world's best and don't have much of a political slant to push (except for Brazilian politics). In the US most of the news is unconsciously (or consciously) biased to re-enforce some POV. Fox News is a good example with the Washington Post or CNN on the other side, but not so strongly biased, IMHO.) You can get the facts from the WSJ or the NYTimes, but unless you are looking to avoid it, you are still having your thought shaped. It is very hard, even if you are intelligent, not to have your thought somewhat controlled in the US - basically you get to chose which of two biases you will fall under. To think more clearly and free of US's bias, I recommend reading at least the ChinaDaily.com and watching the BBC.com via you computer every day.

 

[Luis A.C.ROMANELLI]

I think it will. Democracy is not the way forward for capitalism. China can now become rich and still keep the people down. The downfall of any economic system is people’s rights and expectation increase with wealth in a Democracy. China can still stop you reading web pages they don't like or kill you for any reason they see fit. We are looking at the first major Dictatorship, Capitalist Superpower. This will change the world and who can stop them? No one!

For "Alexb123" ! ! !
I think that if China has 1300 there is other big Contry with 1100 tha is India and may be
with that numbers of similar population we can thik in PEACE for all the World if not I don`t
need word to describe ower destination ! ! !...(EXCUSE MY BAD ENGLISH) ! ! !

 

[Luis A.C.ROMANELLI]

Wy do we think that China is an emergenci ???

What is the problem with a Global Superpower "CHINA" ???

 

[Billy T]

What is the problem with a Global Superpower "CHINA" ???

From the US POV, not being the world leader and unable to consume about (a guess as too lazy to do the reserch and energy % is different form mineral % etc.) three times the per capita share of the world's limited natural resources ending will be painful for Americans.

China, has the economic resources to lock up in 20 to 30 years paid up front future delivery contracts much of these resources and is doing so:

For example, a few years ago China gave Brazil's state oil company, PertoBras, 10 billion dollars which will be repaid over the next 20 year by the delivery of 200,000 barrels of oil per day on average. There are dozens of such agreements with other countries, especially Venezuela, where China is pouring many tens of billions of dollars into the development of the world's largest shale oil deposit and building two refineries to process that heavy crude into gasoline etc.

Currently Venezuela ships its heavy oil to refineries along the US gulf coast, as it has no other choice. That will stop in a few years. The US knows this so is building new and extensions to existing pipelines to deliver Canadian shale oil to these Gulf refineries - US would to import higher cost refined product is they have no crude supply to process.

Brazil is also a net exporter of oil energy, but it too has mainly heavy crude so imports lighter oil too. (But with net positive cash flow.) Brazil and Venezuela are jointly building two heavy crude refineries (identical in design), one in Venezuela and one in Brazil. Each will own 40% of the one not in its own territory and 60% of it own.

China has been buying more (usually 40% shares) of several coastal Brazilian oil fields (and off African coast too, but there, often the whole field, etc.) China has no problem putting several million dollars into a corrupt leader's Swiss Bank accounts to close the deal. The US is too broke to make tens of billions of dollars up front investments for each oil field. Donald trump's plan is to try to take them by force, but that does not work well in practice. - It much too easy to blow up wells and pipe lines. - For example Iraq's oil production is just now getting back to about 50% of the pre-invasion production rate. Iran has practiced "Scorched Earth" plans to destroy it fields if invaded.

An invasion would greatly anger China as it buys 60% of Iran's oil and an invasion would send the world into deep depression as price of oil quickly climbs well above $300/ barrel in a few days even if China did not, in retaliation for loss of its main oil supply, immediately destroy the dollar by dumping its bonds. Iran has many old, but very capable against an oil tanker, silkworm cruise missiles. Some are no doubt well protected in caves in Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf. At spots in the St of Hormuse, near some of these Iranian islands, the channel is too narrow for loaded tankers to pass. Sink only one there and the world's oil supply is cut to less than half want is needed for months.
Some samples of China locking up it future needs in long term contract of out right buybig of the resources in the ground from The “BRIC+ Thread”:

... recently, Sinopec paid 7.1 billion to Spain’s Repsol for their 40% share of an important new “pre-salt” oil field / claims and Sinochem paid 3 billion to Norway’s StatOil for their 40% of the “peregrine” field, less than a month ago. – I.e. more than 20 billion has already locked up for decades much of Brazil’s oil production.

And China is locking up decades of supplies of food too, especially now with food prices rising so rapidly:

Page B14 of today’s O Estado de S. Paulo reports Chongqing Grain Group will build in state of Bahia* a 4 billion dollar soy to oil plant with initial capacity to process 1.5 million tons /year making 300,000 tons of soy oil. The plant will employ 300 people and consume ½ of all Bahia’s current soy production. (Probably all after expansion in a few years). This complex to also include, at not disclosed additional cost, storage for 400,000 tons of soy beans for steady year round production (between harvests). Also at more cost, not disclosed, will be a fertilizer factory and new railroad spur to the Bahian port, Porto sul.

My paper is quoting a Chinese paper as stating that 200,000 hectares have been acquired at 1.5 billion dollar cost to assure a supply of 500,000 tons of soy annually. Thus China will need to buy only a million tons of soy or 1/3 Bahia's current production so will be able to hold farmer's prices down. ...

From part of: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2714047&postcount=381

The other main newspaper of Sao Paulo reports today that China will invest 12 billion in agriculture development in another more central Brazilian state, mainly for more assured supply of soy beans at a price they can control by being the producer. China will not suffer as much as many with the rapid food inflation as it is spending declining dollars from reserves to get items of increasing value.

From: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2724776&postcount=384 (a few days after post 381)

China is planning to make their Yuan an (if not “the”) international reserve currency soon. They are the world’s largest producer of gold and can easily back the Yuan NOW: with gold for central banks, only. They would not in practice actually ask for interest paying Yuan bonds to redeemed in gold any more than they ask for dollar bonds to be converted into gold.
For more details / discussion on how easy it would be for China to make the Yuan an international currency, back by gold, see:
http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2604131&postcount=95
Note also the IMF is pushing it SDRs as the new international currency and planning to include the Yuan in the mix defining the value of the SDR. Very few want to hold dollars in their reserves, but changing that is not easy until China backs the Yuan with gold, which it is not yet ready to do. Must spend down for real assets more of its dollars first and convert more to a domestic economy (with little need to export to US or EU as its coastal factories will export mainly to other prosperous Asian nations.) before destroying the dollar.

Text that followed the following 10 facts (an my comments) is at: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2718106&postcount=382

"...Most Americans simply don't understand how big of a player China has become when it comes to precious metals. China is not only gobbling up gold, it is also voraciously buying up silver as well. The following are 10 facts about gold fever in China that may surprise you....

#1 According to the World Gold Council, China consumed 579.5 tons of gold during 2010. The United States only consumed 233.3 tons.

#2 China has been importing gold at a feverish pace. In fact, China imported five times as much gold in 2010 as it did during 2009.

#3 The Chinese appetite for gold only seems to be accelerating in 2011. The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China sold approximately 15 tons of physical gold in 2010. That was a huge amount. But during the month of January alone, the bank sold approximately 7 tons of physical gold. The growth in the demand for gold in 2011 is being called "explosive" by executives at the bank.

{Billy T insert: See post 170 about the new "gold holding" bank accounts"}

#4 Chinese demand for gold has now risen to approximately 25% of total global production.

#5 Investment demand for gold in China soared by a whopping 70 percent during 2010.

#6 It is being projected that China’s gold investment demand will grow another 40 to 50 percent during 2011.

#7 Consumers in China and India now account for more than half of all global demand for gold jewelry and gold coins.

#8 Chinese households have purchased almost half as much gold since mid-2007 as all the investors in the West combined.

#9 On the Shanghai Gold Exchange, trading volume soared 43 percent during the first 10 months of 2010.

#10 China replaced South Africa as the number one gold producer in the world back in 2007. China's gold mines produced an all-time record 340 tons of gold last year. ..."

From: http://endoftheamericandream.com/ar...out-gold-fever-in-china-that-may-surprise-you

From: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2718140&postcount=174

For more on how China is now getting its population to hoard gold, and silver See also:
http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2706702&postcount=170
OR
http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2693295&postcount=155

 

[Billy T]

What is the problem with a Global Superpower "CHINA" ???

From the US POV, not being the world leader and unable to consume about (a guess as too lazy to do the reserch and energy % is different form mineral % etc.) three times the per capita share of the world's limited natural resources ending will be painful for Americans.

China, has the economic resources to lock up in 20 to 30 years paid up front future delivery contracts much of these resources and is doing so:

For example, a few years ago China gave Brazil's state oil company, PertoBras, 10 billion dollars which will be repaid over the next 20 year by the delivery of 200,000 barrels of oil per day on average. There are dozens of such agreements with other countries, especially Venezuela, where China is pouring many tens of billions of dollars into the development of the world's largest shale oil deposit and building two refineries to process that heavy crude into gasoline etc.

Currently Venezuela ships its heavy oil to refineries along the US gulf coast, as it has no other choice. That will stop in a few years. The US knows this so is building new and extensions to existing pipelines to deliver Canadian shale oil to these Gulf refineries - US would to import higher cost refined product is they have no crude supply to process. Read more detail and see map of the pipeline here: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2667151&postcount=62

Brazil is also a net exporter of oil energy, but it too has mainly heavy crude so imports lighter oil too. (But with net positive cash flow.) Brazil and Venezuela are jointly building two heavy crude refineries (identical in design), one in Venezuela and one in Brazil. Each will own 40% of the one not in its own territory and 60% of it own.

China has been buying more (usually 40% shares) of several coastal Brazilian oil fields (and off African coast too, but there, often the whole field, etc.) China has no problem putting several million dollars into a corrupt leader's Swiss Bank accounts to close the deal. The US is too broke to make tens of billions of dollars up front investments for each oil field. Donald trump's plan is to try to take them by force, but that does not work well in practice. - It much too easy to blow up wells and pipe lines. - For example Iraq's oil production is just now getting back to about 50% of the pre-invasion production rate. Iran has practiced "Scorched Earth" plans to destroy it fields if invaded.

An invasion would greatly anger China as it buys 60% of Iran's oil and an invasion would send the world into deep depression as price of oil quickly climbs well above $300/ barrel in a few days even if China did not, in retaliation for loss of its main oil supply, immediately destroy the dollar by dumping its bonds. Iran has many old, but very capable against an oil tanker, silkworm cruise missiles. Some are no doubt well protected in caves in Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf. At spots in the St of Hormuse, near some of these Iranian islands, the channel is too narrow for loaded tankers to pass. Sink only one there and the world's oil supply is cut to less than half want is needed for months.
Some samples of China locking up it future needs in long term contract of out right buybig of the resources in the ground from The “BRIC+ Thread”:

... recently, Sinopec paid 7.1 billion to Spain’s Repsol for their 40% share of an important new “pre-salt” oil field / claims and Sinochem paid 3 billion to Norway’s StatOil for their 40% of the “peregrine” field, less than a month ago. – I.e. more than 20 billion has already locked up for decades much of Brazil’s oil production.

And China is locking up decades of supplies of food too, especially now with food prices rising so rapidly:

Page B14 of today’s O Estado de S. Paulo reports Chongqing Grain Group will build in state of Bahia* a 4 billion dollar soy to oil plant with initial capacity to process 1.5 million tons /year making 300,000 tons of soy oil. The plant will employ 300 people and consume ½ of all Bahia’s current soy production. (Probably all after expansion in a few years). This complex to also include, at not disclosed additional cost, storage for 400,000 tons of soy beans for steady year round production (between harvests). Also at more cost, not disclosed, will be a fertilizer factory and new railroad spur to the Bahian port, Porto sul.

My paper is quoting a Chinese paper as stating that 200,000 hectares have been acquired at 1.5 billion dollar cost to assure a supply of 500,000 tons of soy annually. Thus China will need to buy only a million tons of soy or 1/3 Bahia's current production so will be able to hold farmer's prices down. ...

From part of: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2714047&postcount=381

The other main newspaper of Sao Paulo reports today that China will invest 12 billion in agriculture development in another more central Brazilian state, mainly for more assured supply of soy beans at a price they can control by being the producer. China will not suffer as much as many with the rapid food inflation as it is spending declining dollars from reserves to get items of increasing value.

From: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2724776&postcount=384 (a few days after post 381)

China is planning to make their Yuan an (if not “the”) international reserve currency soon. They are the world’s largest producer of gold and can easily back the Yuan NOW: with gold for central banks, only. They would not in practice actually ask for interest paying Yuan bonds to redeemed in gold any more than they ask for dollar bonds to be converted into gold.
For more details / discussion on how easy it would be for China to make the Yuan an international currency, back by gold, see:
http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2604131&postcount=95
Note also the IMF is pushing it SDRs as the new international currency and planning to include the Yuan in the mix defining the value of the SDR. Very few want to hold dollars in their reserves, but changing that is not easy until China backs the Yuan with gold, which it is not yet ready to do. Must spend down for real assets more of its dollars first and convert more to a domestic economy (with little need to export to US or EU as its coastal factories will export mainly to other prosperous Asian nations.) before destroying the dollar.

Text that followed the following 10 facts (an my comments) is at: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2718106&postcount=382

"...Most Americans simply don't understand how big of a player China has become when it comes to precious metals. China is not only gobbling up gold, it is also voraciously buying up silver as well. The following are 10 facts about gold fever in China that may surprise you....

#1 According to the World Gold Council, China consumed 579.5 tons of gold during 2010. The United States only consumed 233.3 tons.

#2 China has been importing gold at a feverish pace. In fact, China imported five times as much gold in 2010 as it did during 2009.

#3 The Chinese appetite for gold only seems to be accelerating in 2011. The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China sold approximately 15 tons of physical gold in 2010. That was a huge amount. But during the month of January alone, the bank sold approximately 7 tons of physical gold. The growth in the demand for gold in 2011 is being called "explosive" by executives at the bank.

{Billy T insert: See post 170 about the new "gold holding" bank accounts"}

#4 Chinese demand for gold has now risen to approximately 25% of total global production.

#5 Investment demand for gold in China soared by a whopping 70 percent during 2010.

#6 It is being projected that China’s gold investment demand will grow another 40 to 50 percent during 2011.

#7 Consumers in China and India now account for more than half of all global demand for gold jewelry and gold coins.

#8 Chinese households have purchased almost half as much gold since mid-2007 as all the investors in the West combined.

#9 On the Shanghai Gold Exchange, trading volume soared 43 percent during the first 10 months of 2010.

#10 China replaced South Africa as the number one gold producer in the world back in 2007. China's gold mines produced an all-time record 340 tons of gold last year. ..."

From: http://endoftheamericandream.com/ar...out-gold-fever-in-china-that-may-surprise-you

From: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2718140&postcount=174

For more on how China is now getting its population to hoard gold, and silver See also:
http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2706702&postcount=170
OR
http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2693295&postcount=155