I think Quadrophonics and Odin'Izm's argument can be calmed by pointing out that the USA is at the top; China is on the way up. This means that China will send lots of peopel abroad for education, and many of them will come back. For example, the University of St Andrews has over 100 Chinese a year doing MBA's. Nice little earner for the university, and an indicator of the changes going on in China.
China's Emergence As A Global Superpower
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guthrie said:
A great number of them stay in the US, though. Even those that plan to return home are often lured in after getting accustomed to a cushy job, big house, nice car and a paycheck that's 10 times what they could earn back home. And of course there's the lower taxes...
Amazingly, most Chinese that I talk to at universities in China do not want to migrate to the United States anymore. China is on the move and offering lots of luxuries that we now have. Almost all now have tv's, refregirators, a/c, and at least know someone with a car. I heard that they even just opened up Drive-in Theaters in Beijing for their enjoyment, even though this went out of fashion ten years ago in the states. The point is that there is no longer this great massive surge for Chinese to want to live here. They know about our problems and can now see that they may be better off and happier in China.quadraphonics said:
But I think the main reason is indoctrination. Chinese are Chinese and they want to stay and live in China to "serve their country." This is their "obligation." Income is on the rise. Material benefits are there. It's easy to get a loan to buy your own apartment. Many of the wealthy are building large extravagant houses in the middle of slum areas (How ironic, huh? A mansion built surrounded by a neighborhood of dozens of ramshack huts and chicken coops!). And the biggest new commodity is to own a car; thus the reason that China is now one of the most - the most? - largest car manufacturer in the world today.
China WILL take over the U.S. economically, but there is absolutely no reason for them to do so militarily. However, again, because of the invasion by the Japanese during WWII into China, and the horrifying "Rape of Nanjing," that Japan still refuses to apologize for (now here we can talk about burning babies and massive decapitations), Japan definitely has something to worry about. Chinese do not forget.
Actually, I don't know anything about the tax structure in China, or how they pay for government expenses, except through the operation of government industries. But there are no taxes in China on any products that you buy: clothing, fuel, food, vehicles, appliances - none. I don't know where it all comes from.quadraphonics said:
valich said:
I was referring to income taxes, but that's interesting about the lack of sales tax. Nevertheless, I'm sure the difference is made up in corporate and personal income taxes, which I'm given to believe are higher than in the US. There are states in the US without sales taxes on items like food, and I don't believe Alaska has a state sales tax at all...
valich said:
It's certainly true that fewer are staying than used to. You can certainly get a higher standard of living in today's China than you could a few decades ago when large numbers of Chinese began attending US universities. And there have been good times lately for even established US residents to go back and start up companies. But for every fewer Chinese student that ends up staying, there's an Indian or Iranian ready to make up the difference. At any rate, Chinese people make up only around 10% of the foreign-born science & engineering workforce:
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind02/c3/c3s5.htm#c3s5l1
Note that the US has twice as many workers with advanced degrees in science and engineering as China, and that roughly 3500 per year stay in the US. Suffice it to say that America isn't having trouble finding talented scientists and engineers who want to come work and live here.
I'd add that the majority of foreign students who come to the US for grad school start out planning to return home after graduation, but then they get a good job, maybe a girlfriend, and the next thing you know ten or fifteen years have gone by. For top scientists and engineers who want to do cutting-edge work, the US has the lion's share of the positions, both academic and private. Even when people return to their native countries after schooling, the years (more than half stay more than 5 years) they spend here generate tons of intellectual property and profits for US institutions.
The day that American college students are competing for admission to Chinese grad schools is the day that one can argue that China has some kind of lead in the sciences.
valich said:
Kind of like every other country in the world.
valich said:
China's auto production has been expanded greatly in the last year or two, and should put them in third place, behind the US and Japan, in 2006. They are expected to balloon over the next few years (car production has only just gotten started in earnest), possibly putting them in first place. The factor driving this, however, is not really domestic demand. At no point in the next 5-10 years is domestic Chinese demand expected to consume even half of Chinese production. On the contrary, those factories are being set up by foreign auto firms (notably European ones) for exporting to Europe and the US. Like all of the other investment in production capacity in China, it's driven by foreign markets and investors.
quadraphonics:
Thanks for the informative reference, but it was published in 2002 and most recent data mentioned in it that I found was:
“In April 1999, 27 percent of doctorate-holders in S&E in the United States were foreign born.”
The following is a more recent report, from a more authoritative source, but it also contains some 5 year data old. Things are changing very rapidly*
A few quotes from Physics Today, page 30, March 2005 issue:
(1) "From 1994 to 1998 the number of Chinese, South Korean and Taiwnese students who chose to pursue Ph.Ds in their own countries nearly doubled... and those coming from there to US dropped 19%..." {Billy T insert: If more recent data were available, it would be much worse. - The US "terror fear" immigration policy has made the net influx near zero, if not negative. Korean IT workers now in US on work permits, must wait 7 years before they can apply to become US citizens. Many advanced degree foreign students are having difficulty to avoid deportation. US policy tryng to keep terrorist out is IMHO very crude, non selective, and counter productive.}*
(2) "The ratio of college undergraduates degrees in natural sciences is 5.7 per 100 students in the US .... "Taiwan and South Korea each award about 11 per 100." {Billy T insert: For several other countries listed the ratio ranges between 8 to 13.}
(3) Between 1988 to 2001, East Asian papers in science and engineering have increased by 492% while US production has actually decreased slightly!
(4) From 1980 to 2001 the US share of worldwide high-tech exports fell from 31% to 18% and China and South Korea's share climbed from 7 to 25% {Billy T insert: I think in his important area, China has already passed the US, but US has a clear lead in Rock Concerts, NFL football game contribution to GDP, Hollywood Movies, and other “entertainment items” that have no lasting value.
}
____________________________________
*China has recently announced a program to make 50 educational centers equal or superior to Harvard. They will be staffed / lead by many first-rate imported western-world professors, now being “bought” by offering them salary increases. A large budget has been provided to the new department in charge of this. The article I read named three US professors, from Harvard, Princeton and MIT. Two of 3 had Chinese sounding names and all three were stated to be internationally recognized experts in their fields. - I posted a summary of that article in some thread about a month ago, but can not find it now to repost. - (Not this thread as I have just looked at the last 17 pages for it.)
The other point in article that impressed me relates to item (4) above and the low cost of construction in China: These centers, in new buildings, fully equipped with the latest research instruments, will cost less than half what they would if built and equipped in the US. It is true (I think) that the US still has the lead in scientific research in many areas, but the trends look like this will change in about 5 years. (Especially if the dollar has collapsed and western world is in a depression, with no money to support research and US lacking even money to pay Baby Boomers their social security, except with inflation-producing “printing press dollars.”)
Thus, IMHO, it is highly likely that the western world will soon experience a "brain drain" to China. Compounding this problem is the following fact, quoted from the very biref "Conculsion & Summary" section of quadraphonics' reference:
"The age structure of the U.S. S&E labor force is likely to produce several major changes in the S&E labor market over the next decade. The number of individuals with S&E degrees reaching traditional retirement ages is expected to triple. "
Thanks for the informative reference, but it was published in 2002 and most recent data mentioned in it that I found was:
“In April 1999, 27 percent of doctorate-holders in S&E in the United States were foreign born.”
The following is a more recent report, from a more authoritative source, but it also contains some 5 year data old. Things are changing very rapidly*
A few quotes from Physics Today, page 30, March 2005 issue:
(1) "From 1994 to 1998 the number of Chinese, South Korean and Taiwnese students who chose to pursue Ph.Ds in their own countries nearly doubled... and those coming from there to US dropped 19%..." {Billy T insert: If more recent data were available, it would be much worse. - The US "terror fear" immigration policy has made the net influx near zero, if not negative. Korean IT workers now in US on work permits, must wait 7 years before they can apply to become US citizens. Many advanced degree foreign students are having difficulty to avoid deportation. US policy tryng to keep terrorist out is IMHO very crude, non selective, and counter productive.}*
(2) "The ratio of college undergraduates degrees in natural sciences is 5.7 per 100 students in the US .... "Taiwan and South Korea each award about 11 per 100." {Billy T insert: For several other countries listed the ratio ranges between 8 to 13.}
(3) Between 1988 to 2001, East Asian papers in science and engineering have increased by 492% while US production has actually decreased slightly!
(4) From 1980 to 2001 the US share of worldwide high-tech exports fell from 31% to 18% and China and South Korea's share climbed from 7 to 25% {Billy T insert: I think in his important area, China has already passed the US, but US has a clear lead in Rock Concerts, NFL football game contribution to GDP, Hollywood Movies, and other “entertainment items” that have no lasting value.
}____________________________________
*China has recently announced a program to make 50 educational centers equal or superior to Harvard. They will be staffed / lead by many first-rate imported western-world professors, now being “bought” by offering them salary increases. A large budget has been provided to the new department in charge of this. The article I read named three US professors, from Harvard, Princeton and MIT. Two of 3 had Chinese sounding names and all three were stated to be internationally recognized experts in their fields. - I posted a summary of that article in some thread about a month ago, but can not find it now to repost. - (Not this thread as I have just looked at the last 17 pages for it.)
The other point in article that impressed me relates to item (4) above and the low cost of construction in China: These centers, in new buildings, fully equipped with the latest research instruments, will cost less than half what they would if built and equipped in the US. It is true (I think) that the US still has the lead in scientific research in many areas, but the trends look like this will change in about 5 years. (Especially if the dollar has collapsed and western world is in a depression, with no money to support research and US lacking even money to pay Baby Boomers their social security, except with inflation-producing “printing press dollars.”)
Thus, IMHO, it is highly likely that the western world will soon experience a "brain drain" to China. Compounding this problem is the following fact, quoted from the very biref "Conculsion & Summary" section of quadraphonics' reference:
"The age structure of the U.S. S&E labor force is likely to produce several major changes in the S&E labor market over the next decade. The number of individuals with S&E degrees reaching traditional retirement ages is expected to triple. "
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Certainly. But barring major social upheavals combined with major resource issues, such as oil and minerals, I see no particular reason why China will not reach that stage at some point. The USA, like the UK before it, has reached a plateau of development and ecnoomic capabilities, that means that it cannot help but cede international power and leverage to developing countries. I am talking about generational timescales here though. The UK peaked early in the 20th century, and it took 40 odd years to realise it properly.quadraphonics said:
Billy T: "50 educatonal centers superior or equal to Harvard": Can you supply references or sources on this? Thanks.Billy T said:
Beijing University is considered as the "Harvard of the East," but from my personal experiences after visiting there three times, I would think that neighboring TsingHua University supplies more intelligent students - especially engineers. Personally, I was unimpressed with Beijing University.
There is a great massive influx of peasants from rural areas migrating to urban areas. The major source of the job oportunities are in constructing: thus their wages are extremely low (extremely low cost in construction everywhere in China).
China is now putting out far more scientists and engineers than the West. There is no doubt about this. Their only lack right now is the facilities, equipment, and supplies that they need to work with. This is a problem that will very soon be overcome.
This forum is getting more-and-more intense, with accurate detail. And that is good. Let's try to keep emotions out of it and stick to the facts without interjecting any subjective comments.
Good job Billy T.
Billy T said:(4) From 1980 to 2001 the US share of worldwide high-tech exports fell from 31% to 18% and China and South Korea's share climbed from 7 to 25% {Billy T insert: I think in his important area, China has already passed the US, but US has a clear lead in Rock Concerts, NFL football game contribution to GDP, Hollywood Movies, and other “entertainment items” that have no lasting value.
Even non-perishable items made in China have no lasting value, actually.
quadraphonics said:
All the engineers are hoping to go to china, thats where the money and the research is. China is dumping massive amounts of money into aeronautics, and I sure as hell as an aeronautical engineer want to go there, along with plenty of other engineers I know in other areas. And this is coming from one of he best Engineering faculties in he UK.
$ 7,262,000,000,000 - China
$ $ 11,750,000,000,000 - US
And this may be because the things you make you sell at twice the price at which the chinese do. If you include expence of production and sale, china out produces the USA by a mile.
the cold war is still there, but its much quieter.
quadraphonics said:
All the engineers are hoping to go to china, thats where the money and the research is. China is dumping massive amounts of money into aeronautics, and I sure as hell as an aeronautical engineer want to go there, along with plenty of other engineers I know in other areas. And this is coming from one of he best Engineering faculties in the UK.
$ 7,262,000,000,000 - China
$ $ 11,750,000,000,000 - US
And this may be because the things you make you sell at twice the price at which the chinese do. If you include expence of production and sale, china out produces the USA by a mile.
Russia is the majority supplier to india, as it always has been. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/1735912.stm
Russian supplies
Russia is still the principal source of advance weaponry and looks set to continue in this role.
A protocol signed between the two governments in June 2001 covers Russian supplies of some $10bn worth of weaponry and other military hardware over the coming decade.
In January, India agreed to lease four nuclear-capable Tupolev Tu-22 long-range bombers from Russia along with two nuclear-powered submarines.
India is seeking to blend Russian, western and local technology in an effort to tailor its military equipment to its own needs. The Sukhoi Su-30 Mk I fighter is a good example.
The first squadron of these advanced fighters entered service last September. Their hi-tech control systems incorporate a number of Indian and Western built elements, incorporated into the Russian air-frame.
Interestingly, India is interested in Russian air defence systems as well, with persistent reports that India's long-term aim is to deploy an anti-ballistic missile system of its own, perhaps based upon the Russian S-300VM system.
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Where do you get this idea from? Believe me please, you are way out of line. Chinese want to stay in China because they are Chinese and have been indoctrinated to serve their rising motherland. The pay that an engineer or scientist would receives in China is still way far below what they would receive by immigrating to a Western nation. What foreign expatriate scientists are now working in China? Why would they want to work there? To enjoy the lack of human rights? The lack of freedom of speech? Do live alongside their massive accumulating pollution?Odin'Izm said:
I'll being leaving for China tomorrow night for a week. Anything that you'd like me to tell them?
valich said:
My grandfather, a geophysicist makes the equivalent of 160 000 dollars a year when he works in china. But then again he's quite famouse.
And I know they are hiring engineers and doctors for massive ammounts of money. Yet they are all specialists, a normal scientist would'nt be so lucky.
They work there bacause thats where the pay and the future lie.
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I would suggest you open a bank account there (if you do not already have one) and put as many dollars, converted to Yuan, in it as you can spare. Tell them you plan to open an industry to train some of the nearly two million former farmers who come to the cities every month how to use computers etc. if you need to justify the deposit.valich said:
Mosheh Thezion
Registered Senior Member
china already has won... it has how many times more people????
and are they poor and starving?
NO....
Dont get me wrong... i completely disagree with Mao's little red book.
but lets face the facts.
-MT
and are they poor and starving?
NO....
Dont get me wrong... i completely disagree with Mao's little red book.
but lets face the facts.
-MT
Actually I do have a bank account with the Hong Kong and Shangai Bank Corporation (HSBC) but it is only for convenience purposes.Billy T said:
The United States and WTO are putting tremendous pressure on China to raise their exchange rate; however, because the exchange rate is so low right now ($1 US= $8.1 RMB renminbi) it would be foolish to put more money in a Chinese bank. As soon as they raise their exchange rate - and with all the pressure on them to do so, you'd think that they soon will - you'd loose a fortune. Right now, however, the dollar is worth much more in China, and buys a lot more, than it does in the U.S.
But that has nothing to do with longterm investment. Any financer, businessman, or entrepreneur should know by now that when you invest in China, you best know the culture and have links established, else don't even bother trying to sew up that hole in your wallet where you'll loose all that money. Joint ventures are the best way about going about it.
But to live and work there. Well, I like the culture but hate the overpopulation and pollution. You work in China, you won't make much, and there are very few professionals that do so, because you don't make jack. In the Xiamen - one of the five Special Economic Zones - I know of only one European doctor, always a lot of English teachers, and the rest of the expatriates were either corporate reps or involved in a joint venture.
Some had a saying in Hong Kong about British expatriates that came to work in Hong Kong. Some - not many - called them FILTH (an acronym for: "Failed In London: Try Hong Kong). Get it? When Hong Kong was handed over to China, the rich, the intellectuals, and the professionals that could, booked to Britain, because they all knew what would happen when Hong Kong was handed over to China: downhill from there - and it has been and still is! Just last week the parliament/council sufferred a major defeat in democratic reforms.
So unless there's something special that you really like about China - as I do - economically there's no reason to go there, unless your a major corporation with personal contacts, links or establish a joint venture. As a single person - why?
"China's 2005 growth rate lifted to 9.8 percent: Survey finds economic output was higher the previously thought.
China’s economy grew by an unexpectedly strong 9.8 percent in 2005, as a new survey showed that authorities had previously underestimated the economy’s size, the official Xinhua News Agency said Tuesday.
The larger figure was due almost entirely to robust growth in the service sector, long ignored by the outdated communist statistical system that focuses on manufacturing and relies on businesses to have a full-time employee to report statistics — something small, private firms rarely do....The results show mainland China replacing Italy as the world’s sixth-largest economy, trailing the United States, Japan, Germany, Britain and France. Original figures put China’s economic growth at 9.5 percent in both 2003 and 2004....Meanwhile, government tax revenue in 2005 totaled 3.087 trillion yuan ($382.5 billion), up 20 percent from the previous year, the State Administration of Taxation said over the weekend." http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10690844/
China’s economy grew by an unexpectedly strong 9.8 percent in 2005, as a new survey showed that authorities had previously underestimated the economy’s size, the official Xinhua News Agency said Tuesday.
The larger figure was due almost entirely to robust growth in the service sector, long ignored by the outdated communist statistical system that focuses on manufacturing and relies on businesses to have a full-time employee to report statistics — something small, private firms rarely do....The results show mainland China replacing Italy as the world’s sixth-largest economy, trailing the United States, Japan, Germany, Britain and France. Original figures put China’s economic growth at 9.5 percent in both 2003 and 2004....Meanwhile, government tax revenue in 2005 totaled 3.087 trillion yuan ($382.5 billion), up 20 percent from the previous year, the State Administration of Taxation said over the weekend." http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10690844/