China's Emergence As A Global Superpower

[Smooth Criminal]

You really haven't learned much from history, have you, Alex?

The now-defunct U.S.S.R. had all the advantages that you attribute to China and they ultimately couldn't keep it working. China won't disintegrate like they did but they cannot totally succeed in their final ambitions without some serious change.

Just what is it that makes you think that China can prevail when the U.S.S.R. could not? Just what do you see as being different between them?

While I know this post is old, I still feel the need to reply to it.

The difference is that China is no Marxist communist dictatorship, they have a controlled free market with capitalist motives in it. Russia was a closed nation, they did not trade with other countries they did not consider communist and they did not care for industry or people at all. When they did reach out to open their market it what by far a desperate attempt for survival done in haste and they could not keep their economy from collapsing in a last second change.

China on the otherhand openly trades, infact is one of the largest traders now in the world, they are rapidly industrializing and while doing so they are laying down the infrastructural foundations needed to not be crushed under their own weigh while also providing their people with a steady growth in qoulity of life.

I can't even see a close comparison between China today and Cold War Russia.

 

[Smooth Criminal]

You forgot the most important reason why waun will resist US et al pressure. US needs China (and Japan and oil exporters) to finance it ever growing debts. If China were to cease buying US notes all these others would follow to avoid loses.

Yah, we can basically gather all that under -The US needs China, and EU needs China -China is well aware of that- China has the upperhand. While of course that also works vice versa but capitalism know not national loyalty and so Chinese don't have to fear loss of investment either way.

 

[Smooth Criminal]

There are far more Chinese that know English than Americans that know Chinese, but they will not come here in mass. They would not desert their family and homeland to take over such a huge population as ours.

Further, the more simple-natured mindset of Chinese, compared to our more-complex analytical way of thought, including the hidden irony and subtle round-about ways that we refer to things in our language - sarcasm, subtle humor, saying "no, no, no" when we really mean "yes, yes, yes," saying hey "that's really "bad" dude (meaning really "good"), or how "cool" (do you mean "not hot"?), etc. - would not be understood by the majority of the Chinese that are even fluent in English. Yet these are the Chinese that China would have send over to try and control our 328 million people (a little under 1/4th their 1.5 billion population). It wouldn't work: they'd have more to lose than gain.

90-95% of Chinese are rural peasants, and most of them cannot even read Chinese, let alone English. That's why the PRC created the Simplified Chinese Character system, rather than the Traditional Chinese Characters still used in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Yet, most of them are still illiterate peasants that work hard in the fields to feed their families. If China were to take over the United States, who are they going to send over here to control us? The peasants? That would be a joke? We'd trick them, make fun of them to no end, because it really would be an unrealistic joke - they wouldn't last here a month. Why would they want to be here? They'd rather be back home with their families making sure ends meet. So who would they send over here to control all of us? The Chinese Liberation Army? Sure they PLA takes orders, but they are no more smarter than the peasants! We'd make a mockery of them in a week and they'd be frantically consulting with the top brass with their tails between their legs all the way back home.

After Tiananmen, a lot of people were scared to talk to me because I was a foreigner. They were scared of any government reprisal. But they were ohhhh soooo glad to see me there - that not all expatriates abandoned them. They had ranks of troops marching around Tiananmen Square and I'd grab my short-wave radio, extend it's antenna to the fullist, and silently march behind them in step - putting the radio to my mouth as if giving the orders. Boy did the Chinese get a big kick out of seeing an expatriate doing that! Kind've broke the ice after what had just happened - and the PLA never caught on to my little childish antics!

By 2080? Well, I doubt ANY one can predict ANY thing acurately that far into the future - except maybe the effects of Global Warming. But politics? The political situation on Earth? I can say that at least until 2050 there is no way the Chinese will takeover the United States. This would be impractical of them and it would lead to WWIII.

Chinese are not dumb - even though I know many "Chinese" that do say that they are! Nevertheless, I think all Chinese will admit that their society is still very "backwards" in many ways; but that is changing: mostly amongst the urban than the rural. Furthermore, they are investing a lot into their military strength and WILL emerge as a global power - rivalling and possibly succeeding that of the United States. But this does not mean that they will "overtake us one day"?

Have we, as the undisputed Global Power, "overtaken" any country? Yes! You can say we overtook Afghanistan and Iran, but why? Global terrorism! Does the United States pose any such of a risk to the world that any country would want to overtake us? No! Much more harm than good. Not only to we not pose any threat, but we have countless alliances throughout the world that would join in to protect us, especially Britain, France, Canada, Australia, Japan, and Germany- along with the entire United Nations. They would immediately condemn such an action and declare defensive actions.

Well, residing in Europe I have thoghts of my own regarding those allies. European people themselves, not politcs would pretty much rather see any nation including China in the position of Super Power status than the US. The people wouldn't support any war against China which happens to be the country of their biggest interest at the current moment in the first place. And China being a UN perma member would veto all actions which would be to conducted by the UN against them. Of course that would be overwritten do to circumstances, however paperwork takes time as we all know.

But then again China invading the US won't happen, I mean, that's just ridiculous O_O

 

[Odin'Izm]

China isn't as powerful as many seems to believe. They will not, as long as they are communists, be able to conquer the USA.

--

Their socialists for a first. And Yes they will, their the fastest growing economy in the world, with a huge army, amazing scientists, and the ability to hold america on a leash, as mosto f the things you guys order are made IN china, this includes your military technology.

 

[Clockwood]

The biggest nuke actually tested by America was somewhere between 10-15 megatons (Castle Bravo 1954) and it has generally been decided ones that big would be overkill. Russia fiddled with some freaking superbomb (Tsar Bomba 1961) but it also never got to mass production. Most of our combined payloads are in the low hundreds of kilotons. It would take a fairsized number to actually vaporize one city... though just one should be enough to cripple it.

Of the two used on Japan at the end of WWII, Little Boy and Fat Man, one was roughly 25 kilotons and the other 13 kilotons. The radiation had dissipated to background levels in about a day and you started getting survivors not too far away from ground zero. We had annihilated many more cities in Japan through simple firebombing.

What scares the crap out of me about China is the fact that they have over a billion slaves to a small and ideologically fanatical ruling party. People complain about Americans worshipping the government and believing whatever the government says and yadda-yadda. All that in nothing compared to China.

 

[Odin'Izm]

Gamma Rays:
Distance (km) Hiroshima (mGy) Nagasaki (mGy)
1 --------- 35700 -------- 83000
1.5 ---------- 4220 -------- 8620
2 --------- 549 --------- 983

 

[Smooth Criminal]

as mosto f the things you guys order are made IN china, this includes your military technology.

I assume you are relating to the us with that assertment.
TheUS doesn't buy military technology from China. Why would they? That's like the middle age man buying sticks and rocks from the prehistoric Billy. Maybe not that disperate, but as of right now, its more the reverse of what you seem to assert there.

 

[valich]

But then again China invading the US won't happen, I mean, that's just ridiculous O_O

Smooth Criminal: And that you seem to be! I mean you just come out of no where and start posting on this thread without reading anything that came before. Your answer - and it wasn't an answer at all - and your one sentence reply to my post is a case in point. You reposted my entire post but addressed absolutely none of it. Then we go into a comparison of world power and the strength of nuclear missiles.

You're ignoring ALL the posts put before that there is no motivation for China to overtake the U.S. That we have too many allies. That the use of nuclear weapons against such a large continent as ours would send a wave of fallout radiation that would effect and kill Chinese in China as well - global wind circulation. They would imediately be isolated by the U.N. Global restrictions would be put in place. Military retaliation. Why would they want to take over the entire world? Like Hitler? Chinese are not like this. They do not have the same dementia mindset.

There is no country on Earth today that has illusions of grandeur to take over the World: most especially the Chinese. They are no where near like Germany was under the Third Reich. So where do you get this wharped psychotic attitude from that they would want to overtake us? I lived in China for almost 15 years: this type of attitude DOES NOT EXIST. Nor would anyone in China want this to happen. Chinese in general like Americans!

 

[Billy T]

...There is no country on Earth today that has illusions of grandeur to take over the World: most especially the Chinese. They are no where near like Germany was under the Third Reich....

I think you mean, but do not explicitly state, "takeover militarily" not "takeover economically"

All most all countries, throughout almost all history, have wished (and those that could, did) takeover other countries, economically.

Prior to WW1, almost all of Africa had been taken over economically. To some extent WW1 was more to redistribute control of the wealth in African than a response to the murder of an arch duke in Serbia, which disturbed alliances. (Germany, the WW1 loser, lost all of their African territories, plus iron-ore rich Sarr valley of pre WW1 Germany, but that just gave motive to try again. Hitler did not want to destroy Europe, but to control it economically. I think his domestic war on the jews was mainly because he thought they had too much economic power, but the "Purity of the Nordic Race" would play better with his people, than "lets steal the wealth of the Jews." The protracted nature of his failing war effort is what inadvertently caused the destruction of Europe.)

Certainly, the current war in Iraq is mainly motivated by the Bush administration’s desire to takeover the lucrative oil contracts previously held by the French and Russians. (Also of course why France and Russia strongly opposed the invasion.) The millions starving in Zimbabwe would have been a better humanitarian cause. Oil contracts in the home of 19 of the 9/11 Terrorists were already securely in US hands - economically counter productive to invade the homeland of the Terrorists, but Iraq could be blamed for 9/11, if WMDs turned out to not exist in Iraq. Any government worth its salt, can convert a "Pearl Harbor", "9/11", "Napoleonic Expansion", "Spanish Armada" etc. in to a "good cause" (and economic gain, control of other countries.)

War is, as some one observed long ago, just a more violent form of political conflict and political conflict ALWAYS has an economic struggle for wealth as it base. Of course, no government openly states: "We want your wealth, and can take it by force, so we will." - That would not make their citizens willing to "die in the war" (excuse me, "for the good cause")

Almost anything will serve as the "good cause" for a war, if it is packaged well, but the list below (partial only, as I don't know much history.) has been used:

(1)White man's burden (to save the blacks, Indian indians, etc from their poor state, etc.).
(2)To regain the holy land for God.
(3)To make the world safe for democracy.
(4)To protect the homeland
(5)To secure freedom (of the sea, or oil routes, usually added)
(6)To destroy the base of the_______*
(7)To fulfill American’s destiny (got Texas from Mexico with this one.)
(8)To bring God's word to the heathen

Many more - feel free to add your favorite.

My favorite "good reason" for war is: "To secure a lasting peace."
_________________________________
*Fill in some group your people can be persuaded are a threat to them, such as: Barberry Pirates, Terrorists, Opium traders, Alcohol-crazed Indians, French/Canadian traders, Drug Lords, Communists, Fascists, etc. - Almost anyone will do. (The evil "Japs" and "Krouts" were suitable in WWII, but now are US allies.) Etc.

 

[quadraphonics]

I think the only thing that the US can do in a few years to pay this debt is to print money.

Fortunately, you aren't the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Foreign creditors usually collect their due by purchasing US assets (factories, stock, etc.). There's no reason to expect that China won't do the same. Indeed, they have a clear interest in keeping the dollar up against the yuan, so the last thing they want is a flood of dollars on the market.

 

[quadraphonics]

What scares the crap out of me about China is the fact that they have over a billion slaves to a small and ideologically fanatical ruling party.

Err... maybe 60 years ago they did. Now they've got an educated middle class that doubles in size every couple of years.

People need to drop this whole "China is a nation of zombie robots dictated by a power-mad military leader" nonsense. It's just plain wrong. North Korea, on the other hand...

 

[quadraphonics]

amazing scientists,

Amazing US-educated scientists, that is.

and the ability to hold america on a leash,

Riiiiight....

as mosto f the things you guys order are made IN china, this includes your military technology.

No it doesn't. America is by far the world's largest *exporter* of military hardware. We supply Taiwan, India, Pakistan, South Korea, Thailand, Japan, Mongolia, most of the Stans, and Australia, to name just a few in China's neighborhood. China is a military importer that is only now beginning significant domestic production of military equipment (submarines and fighter planes). Essentially all of China's advanced equipment is still imported, mainly from Russia (if I'm not mistaken). Nobody (except maybe North Korea) imports Chinese military equipment.

Are Chinese-made components (microchips, LEDs, cables, etc.) utilized in America-made equipment? Sure. But that stuff can easily be purchased elsewhere in the event of a conflict. In a pinch, it wouldn't be a big deal to put up a few more factories in the US, although it's hard to see why it would be necessary. We'd put them in Mexico before we'd move them back here. The reason America buys so much stuff from China isn't that there's no other place to get it, but that there's no cheaper place to get it. Which is to say, the US is leveraging China's people and environment to reduce its own costs in producing miliary equipment that is then sold to all of China's neighbors. And yet somehow it's the US that's on a leash?

 

[valich]

I think you mean, but do not explicitly state, "takeover militarily" not "takeover economically"

War is, as some one observed long ago, just a more violent form of political conflict and political conflict ALWAYS has an economic struggle for wealth as it base. Of course, no government openly states: "We want your wealth, and can take it by force, so we will." - That would not make their citizens willing to "die in the war" (excuse me, "for the good cause")

Almost anything will serve as the "good cause" for a war, if it is packaged well, but the list below (partial only, as I don't know much history.) has been used:

(1)White man's burden (to save the blacks, Indian indians, etc from their poor state, etc.).
(2)To regain the holy land for God.
(3)To make the world safe for democracy.
(4)To protect the homeland
(5)To secure freedom (of the sea, or oil routes, usually added)
(6)To destroy the base of the_______*
(7)To fulfill American’s destiny (got Texas from Mexico with this one.)
(8)To bring God's word to the heathen

Yes, of course. I mean take over militarily, not economically. This is what we've been talking about all throughout this thread - China coming over her and overtaking us (militarily). Thus the discussion on nuclear warhead strength, etc.

But after you state this, you also go into reasons for a military takeover: "cause for a war."

Read all of the above posts. We've been through all this already.

A military takeover by China would lead to:

1) Worldwide condemnation and resolution and immediate global retaliation.
2) World War III
3) Nuclear takeover would cause harm to their own people through wind circulation from radiotactive fallout.
4) Economically, this would lead to world economic disaster.
5) Why would Chinese want to do this? Most Chinese like Americans.

Absolutely none of the reasons that you list above, as those that "will serve as the "good cause" for a war," apply to China. The reasons that you list relate to belief in God, protecting the homeland, democracy, and to secure freedom.

America promotes, influences, and enhances all of these motives in China: just the opposite of being a threat. WE are the ones that are advancing democracy and human rights in China. WE are the underlying cause of there freedom: both politically, democratically, and economically. Chinese look upon us as a role model for democracy and freedom: not as a cause to overtake us. Further, as far as religion goes, most Chinese are atheists. Forget about any religious war. The country's religious and philosophical beliefs are a mixture of Confucian ethics, Taoism, and Buddhism, with a bit of our Christian prostelyzing, although some Muslims live in Western China and Mongolia. Any fanaticism in religion is strictly controlled by the government.

 

[Billy T]

To Valich:

I was almost sure you were concerned with an economic takeover, as I am, not a military one* and I think that the base for economic takeover is being well constructed now, mainly by US increasing its debts, but also by Chinese intelligence, hard work, and almost 2 million new workers coming monthly into China's urban work force from the fields^, plus a controlled, non-floating, Yuan are also reasons for the China’s steady success in taking over the US economically.

To All:

(A few minutes ago, just before signing on to sciforums, I read yet another financial service's strong recommendation to sell GM stock, to establish a 2005 tax loss, even though it is now at 23 year low, as next year it probably will be even lower, if not worthless.) China is definitely winning this economic war, and has not yet fired its big gun. They are still putting powder in that gun's chamber (building up their dollar hoard). Japan needs US protection so even though they have an even greater hoard of dollars, they will not start a run on the dollar, but will be forced to join the crowd of central banks dumping dollars when China fires that economic gun to make the dollar worth much less and oil too expensive for US to import in adequate quantity for its economy.

Currently China has not yet developed a population rich enough to absorb all its full productive capacity, so China needs trade with US et. al., but it is by far the world's fastest growing market for cars, for computers, for imported food^, etc. In a few years, after China's big gun has been fired (dollars dumped by buying oil in ground and other assets, almost regardless of price.), and the flood of dollars has collapsed their value, most of the world will be in very deep depression, except for a few areas like China (and possibly India) that have great productivity and huge internal markets that their production facilities, even running at near 100% of capacity, can not fully satisfy (the domestic demand).

I.e. It will be a strange world - Part in deep depression and an isolated part in run-a-way boom. Brazil and a few other mainly raw material exporters and food product producers, will be helped by the Boom part's demand, but hurt by the near zero exports to the depressed part. (In 2005 Brazil’s exports were 117 billion US dollars and imports were 44 billion less. 1.3 billion of Brazil’s exports were soybeans, mainly to China, but iron ore exports were larger, a yet unknown total. - China has a 25 year contract for iron ore from Brazil now. Is paying for port improvements, building railroads, etc. to get the ore out more efficiently. China has a 50 year development plan for its economy and is ahead of schedule. In 2005 Brazil became a net exporter of oil, in small part because alcohol, natural gas and biodiesel are displacing gasoline domestically. Brazil will be OK as an economic colony of China.)
___________________________________
*Since China is winning the economic war, it would be silly to start a military one which would destroy China. I get annoyed at the foolish posts that do appear in this thread discussing the military war, with China trying to occupy US etc. That is less probable than an invasion from Mars. So rather than talk about Chinese using cobalt bombs, etc. if we must discuss military war, lets talk about the method Martians would use - They are well adapted to low atmospheric pressure, so I bet their plan is suck up 2/3 of the atmosphere with super vacuum cleaner and take it away.

(Few people realize that the Martian test of the prototype of the vacuum cleaner is the true cause of the "ozone hole." - The CIA knows this is fact, but they never tell the truth.)

^The migration to the cities, unprecedented in human history, now occurring in China is good news for Brazil and other food exporters. The needs of their factories for raw material are also. Chinese demand if the main reason almost all commodity prices have at least doubled in last few years. I do not understand how so many people can be blind to the economic victor of China, which is already so evident.

For example, in seven mid-western US industrial states, the average annual salary (of those who still have jobs? or everyone? BBC not clear on this.), is down $16,000! - This BBC news report is hard for me to believe, but it is the industrial mid west that has been hardest hit in the economic war now in progress and it is true that the national average US wage (In inflation adjusted dollars) has decreased every year of the last four, so perhaps it is true, if the base of comparison used is the peak salaries of several years ago. (BBC was not clear on what the 16K was down from or if inflation adjusted or not.)

 

[MetaKron]

Billy, my point was that China can and will use death threats to get what it wants. US is acting like China's pussy because of that. What other reason could we possibly have?

 

[Odin'Izm]

I assume you are relating to the us with that assertment.
TheUS doesn't buy military technology from China. Why would they? That's like the middle age man buying sticks and rocks from the prehistoric Billy. Maybe not that disperate, but as of right now, its more the reverse of what you seem to assert there.

They dont buy technology, they get alot of their parts made in china, tank parts, rocket parts, airplane part you name it.

 

[Odin'Izm]

Amazing US-educated scientists, that is.

No, amazing chinese physicists, mathematicians and engineers, who know alot more about their area than any american does, education in china is amazing compared to the states, thats why three chinese boys won the us national maths olympiad. 1st 2nd and 3rd place.

Riiiiight....



No it doesn't. America is by far the world's largest *exporter* of military hardware. We supply Taiwan, India, Pakistan, South Korea, Thailand, Japan, Mongolia, most of the Stans, and Australia, to name just a few in China's neighborhood. China is a military importer that is only now beginning significant domestic production of military equipment (submarines and fighter planes). Essentially all of China's advanced equipment is still imported, mainly from Russia (if I'm not mistaken). Nobody (except maybe North Korea) imports Chinese military equipment.

Are Chinese-made components (microchips, LEDs, cables, etc.) utilized in America-made equipment? Sure. But that stuff can easily be purchased elsewhere in the event of a conflict. In a pinch, it wouldn't be a big deal to put up a few more factories in the US, although it's hard to see why it would be necessary. We'd put them in Mexico before we'd move them back here. The reason America buys so much stuff from China isn't that there's no other place to get it, but that there's no cheaper place to get it. Which is to say, the US is leveraging China's people and environment to reduce its own costs in producing miliary equipment that is then sold to all of China's neighbors. And yet somehow it's the US that's on a leash?

China has the largest production industry in the world, they make everything, this includes components for US missiles, airplanes, bombs, tanks. Why? because they will make it atleast 100 times cheaper than a factory in the us would. ANd you dont supply India, thats russian turf. (remmember the Indo-Pakistani war?)

But that stuff can easily be purchased elsewhere in the event of a conflict

No it cant, because no one else has the same production capability, not only will it cost alot of money and time to set-up a production line of Ailerons for a F-16 , they will be produced slower, and each one will cost you more than it would in china. Besides If the US got in conflict with china, it would no longer receive all the things china makes for it, and neither the US nor another 3 producers put together could sustain that level of production.


I'm not even mentioning the fact that china is the worlds fastest growing economy, soon it will over take the Us, give it 5-10 years.

 

[quadraphonics]

No, amazing chinese physicists, mathematicians and engineers, who know alot more about their area than any american does, education in china is amazing compared to the states, thats why three chinese boys won the us national maths olympiad. 1st 2nd and 3rd place.

Funny then that the best scientists, mathematicians and engineers produced by China (and every other country in the world) all want to go to grad school and do research in the US. Notice where that math olympiad was held. How many top-notch foreign students are applying to grad school in China? My guess would be roughly zero.

China has the largest production industry in the world,

Funny then that the US GDP is almost twice the Chinese GDP.

ANd you dont supply India, thats russian turf. (remmember the Indo-Pakistani war?)

Which one? Anyway, you may have heard that the Cold War is over and Russia lost. India just signed a huge contract to buy their planes from the US, and is expected to buy all kinds of new systems next year. Why eat hamburger when you can have steak?

 

[Billy T]

(1)Billy, my point was that China can and will use death threats to get what it wants. (2) US is acting like China's pussy because of that. What other reason could we possibly have?

On (1)
Threats, even to strap a bomb to oneself and blow it up, can be creditable and thus make someone else do something, perhaps shoot you as recently happened on US airplane. (Unfortunately, it was an error. - the dead "bomber" had no bomb, only a history of being under mental care.)

However, a threat made by a complex nation, with one fourth of the world's population, that it will commit suicide to destroy US by force, is not creditable. (Especially if most Chinese experts believe, as I do, that they would be lucky to take out at most three or four US cities.)

Non-creditable threats are useless. China is not stupid. They do not make useless threats because that would make them look silly and "lose face."

If I tell you to stop this silly talk of China making trying to occupy or destroy US and threaten to blow you house up by driving TNT loaded car into it, it will have no effect upon you as that threat is not creditable.

Further more, if you hold a wining hand in a poker game, you do not fold, you raise the stakes. China is winning the economic struggle. They want the US as an economic colony, same as they will surely get one in Brazil - The US has great agricultural potential. Until recently, it out produced Brazil in soybeans and several grains (still does and always will grow more wheat, which likes a colder climate.)

As I said: China is not stupid. They are winning the only war that makes sense. They will not throw away victory to claim total destruction. How can you think they would? A threat to do so simply is not creditable.

On (2):
US debt is caused by buying more than you earn - not by China. It does no good to blame the people lending to you.

 

[Billy T]

....Funny then that the US GDP is almost twice the Chinese GDP....

You also need to look at what goes into the GDP. If you compare only the industrial products, it would be much closer but China has probably already passed the US. The US's GDP in the entertainment sectors is probably 10 times greater than China's (They do not include 100,000 people paying $10 a head for rock concerts etc.)* Take out the frivoless items from US GDP and then consider what a 9% annual growth rate does and you have an entirely different and very disturbing picture.

I am not well informed about football. Perhaps someone will estimate what the NFL contributes to GDP, both directly in tickets sales at games and indirectly in "tailgating," hotels bills, restaurant meals, travel to games, etc annually.

Hollywood's contribution must be at least 1 trillion dollars annually, judging by the production costs of some recent movies and possibly twice that if indirect cost of Hollywood productions are added.
___________________________________________
*Perhaps it is 50,000 people paying $20 /head? that get it to be a million dollars of GDP for something that does not even exist a few hours later.