China's Emergence As A Global Superpower

[Blue_UK]

If you learn mandarin now, you might be able to talk yourself out of ritual beatings during the occupation.

 

[Billy T]

If you learn mandarin now, you might be able to talk yourself out of ritual beatings during the occupation.

I live in Brazil, but will suggest this to my US grand children - thanks

PS if you looked at the computer forum a few weeks ago, you will see that I am already trying to make a GO expert of the oldest via computer and skype converstions. (He shows some real potential at GO.)

I do not expect an occupation, but you never can tell, extra pay make motivate some Chineses administrators to agree to work outside the "central kingdom" in a backward territory, like US in 2080.

I do expect that the social /political system in China will be greatly changed by material progress. Old Karl M. must already be spinning in his grave as more and more of the "means of production" are privatized.

 

[Blue_UK]

'Go' is japanese!

 

[Billy T]

'Go' is japanese!

You may be right. - I thought it like chess, in that no one is sure where it originated. Certainly if you explore around the GO servers you will find many are serving mainly Chineses or mainly Korean (as well as many that serve mainly japanese.) I understand there is even a slight difference in the rules, I think related to scoring at the end, but do not know much about the game. I think it great that different level players can play by giving stones initially and this does not change the nature of the game as much as in Chess. Go is also extremely easy to learn the rules, no unique moves for each piece to learn (no piece moves at all!) etc.

 

[valich]

If you learn mandarin now, you might be able to talk yourself out of ritual beatings during the occupation.

There are far more Chinese that know English than Americans that know Chinese, but they will not come here in mass. They would not desert their family and homeland to take over such a huge population as ours.

Further, the more simple-natured mindset of Chinese, compared to our more-complex analytical way of thought, including the hidden irony and subtle round-about ways that we refer to things in our language - sarcasm, subtle humor, saying "no, no, no" when we really mean "yes, yes, yes," saying hey "that's really "bad" dude (meaning really "good"), or how "cool" (do you mean "not hot"?), etc. - would not be understood by the majority of the Chinese that are even fluent in English. Yet these are the Chinese that China would have send over to try and control our 328 million people (a little under 1/4th their 1.5 billion population). It wouldn't work: they'd have more to lose than gain.

90-95% of Chinese are rural peasants, and most of them cannot even read Chinese, let alone English. That's why the PRC created the Simplified Chinese Character system, rather than the Traditional Chinese Characters still used in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Yet, most of them are still illiterate peasants that work hard in the fields to feed their families. If China were to take over the United States, who are they going to send over here to control us? The peasants? That would be a joke? We'd trick them, make fun of them to no end, because it really would be an unrealistic joke - they wouldn't last here a month. Why would they want to be here? They'd rather be back home with their families making sure ends meet. So who would they send over here to control all of us? The Chinese Liberation Army? Sure they PLA takes orders, but they are no more smarter than the peasants! We'd make a mockery of them in a week and they'd be frantically consulting with the top brass with their tails between their legs all the way back home.

After Tiananmen, a lot of people were scared to talk to me because I was a foreigner. They were scared of any government reprisal. But they were ohhhh soooo glad to see me there - that not all expatriates abandoned them. They had ranks of troops marching around Tiananmen Square and I'd grab my short-wave radio, extend it's antenna to the fullist, and silently march behind them in step - putting the radio to my mouth as if giving the orders. Boy did the Chinese get a big kick out of seeing an expatriate doing that! Kind've broke the ice after what had just happened - and the PLA never caught on to my little childish antics!

By 2080? Well, I doubt ANY one can predict ANY thing acurately that far into the future - except maybe the effects of Global Warming. But politics? The political situation on Earth? I can say that at least until 2050 there is no way the Chinese will takeover the United States. This would be impractical of them and it would lead to WWIII.

Chinese are not dumb - even though I know many "Chinese" that do say that they are! Nevertheless, I think all Chinese will admit that their society is still very "backwards" in many ways; but that is changing: mostly amongst the urban than the rural. Furthermore, they are investing a lot into their military strength and WILL emerge as a global power - rivalling and possibly succeeding that of the United States. But this does not mean that they will "overtake us one day"?

Have we, as the undisputed Global Power, "overtaken" any country? Yes! You can say we overtook Afghanistan and Iran, but why? Global terrorism! Does the United States pose any such of a risk to the world that any country would want to overtake us? No! Much more harm than good. Not only to we not pose any threat, but we have countless alliances throughout the world that would join in to protect us, especially Britain, France, Canada, Australia, Japan, and Germany- along with the entire United Nations. They would immediately condemn such an action and declare defensive actions.

 

[Blue_UK]

The comment was really just a joke but you're quite righ anyway, valich. Although, I'm not sure what population stat. you are talking about. US pop = 295M. US+UK pop = 355M. I agree, if China went on the rampage, they'd probably be more support than just those two before you wake up to the sounds of "hai... hai!... HAI!!!" and gun stocks in the face.

But who knows what the glorious people's republic will develop into.

So you lived in Bejing during the Tiananmen protests of 1989? (*subtley moves google results out of view*)

 

[valich]

355M includes Canada. I'm sure if they were to come here they'd be included.

 

[Billy T]

Seldom that my local newspaper (One of world's best, if you do not mind day old news translated from all the world's best newspapers and only a few original articles with sources outside of Brazil.) has something you did not see yesterday but the following facts are from one of those few original investigations.

In 2005 China, for first time, exported more cars than it imported.

In Sept 2004 China exhibited five different models at the Frankfurt auto show. (World's most important show and China's first time as exhibitor.)

In 2007, China will begin exporting to US car model "Cherry" made by Cherry Motors. - The eighth largest carmaker of China (A little guy gets the jump on seven bigger ones.) I am guessing at the name, it is not yet certain, but car is. It will sell for approximately 30% less than a comparable Japanese model. Visionary Vehicles, in NYC will be the importer. They hope/ expect (verb in Portuguese is a mix of these two ideas) to sell in US 250,000 units in 2007 and one million annually by 2012.

In 2008, a larger Chinese company, Geely, will export to US a copy of the Honda Civic priced at approximately $10,000. Initially the quality is not expected to be as good as the Civic, but will be a few years later.

In the 12 months, March 2004 to 2005, Company "Great Wall" exported 7,120 light trucks, up 431% for prior March-to-March year. They also make a "sport utility" that seats seven people, and will soon (date not stated) sell for approximately $15,000 in US, but paper also states it will sell for 15K euros.
It is a "Chinese copy" of Korean Hyundai.

Chinese exports in first ten months of 2005, (Jan- October) are up 135% and all of 2005 China will export 125,000 cars.

Toyota had a legal action against Greely Company, not for copying a car, but for selecting a logo, that looks too much like Toyota's. Court decision went against Toyota. Greely can use its Toyota rip off logo.

GM also has legal process going against Cherry motors because Cherry is selling copy of the model Spark. (Spark may be the name only in Brazil - I never heard of it in US, but have not lived in US for 12 years.)

Greely, Great Wall, & Cherry compete inside China and so fiercely that there is no "Chinese association of automakers." All have expansion of capacity under development. Greely will produce 20 times more cars by 2015. (2 million annually) Great Wall will invest US$1.2 billion between 2004 and 2008 to increase its capacity by 600,000 units annually.

China is already the world's third largest market for cars, behind only US and Japan, and very rapidly growing as economy of the people improves.

As I have said here before, it is not a question of "Will China overtake US?" but "How many years until it does so?"

I am confident GM will be bankrupt in only a few years* and Ford a few years after that. China will pick their Cherries with Cherry etc. The Automotive Manufactures Association of Brazil, even with modern facilities and cheap labor, is very worried/scared.
_________________________________________
* So are investors - GM stock is at a 23 year low.

 

[valich]

You're totally ignoring politics, humanitarian relations, and even economic relations, and just citing economic trends. They are far from equal. In terms of economics, the Japanese are far ahead of us already: do we consider them a fear? Look at the differences in per capita savings rate and advance in technology between the U.S., Japan, and European countries.

Why would the Chinese want to float their boats all the way over here to overtake us? You're ignoring all the posts above. You seem to assume that there has to be an overtaking instinct in a country nowadays rather than just peacefully trying to get along together as best we can. I'm thinking positive here - and in agreement with the world community - that none of us anymore (save for Al qaeda) are seeking or striving for world dominance.

To change the subject to a more realistic level, the Japanese have much more to fear about China taking over their country - or bombing them - then we will ever have. The Japanese have yet to ever apologize for the war atrocities they committed during WWII to China - especially the horrendous "Rape of Nanjing" - and their top level government authorities still pay pilgrimage to the shrines devoted to the Japanese soldiers that died during their attacks on China. Chinese never forget.

 

[Smooth Criminal]

Do you have even the slightest idea how large the USA is? Do you have even the slightest idea how many ICBMs it would take to "decimate" a country that large? How many ICBMs do you think it would take to "decimate" even the city of Los Angeles? How 'bout San Francisco?

All of the nations on Earth don't have enough ICBMs to decimate the US ...let alone China! Hell, if the US helped them, for god's sake, I don't think it would "decimate" the US!

People get really weirded out when begin talking about missiles and nukes and stuff ...they let their Hollywood-mentality over-power their brain and conjure up some of the strangest ideas and doomsday scenarios!

Baron Max

Correct me if I'm wrong, but even Russia has successfully developed a nuke that could take out the entire state of texas. alone. That's one Nuke.

The Us nukes are smaller in size as a result of being utilized under MIRV technology, meaning they have multiple warheads each so they hold much greater destructive power combined.

Just only by mid 1980's the world had enough nuclear firepower that was the equivalent of every human being having 15 tonnes of TNT. That's enough to take out human kind close to 700 times. And today in an age where nukes are created uner MIRV you can multiple that destructive power. Add to that the radiation that one nuke creates which on a windier day could travel countries afar and you get the point.

 

[Smooth Criminal]

If we wanted to win this chess game, for one thing we should have obedience-trained Saddam. The new regime will cut our throats a hell of a lot faster than Saddam's regime would have, and they are heading for a new dark age as fast as they can. We could have done this at a profit, squeezing him for cheap oil. We could have had that trillion dollars that is being flushed down the tubes to establish moon bases which would help prevent attacks by China. Even doing nothing would be better than what the US has been doing for the last 15 years, because doing nothing would mean that we would have full strength in our military and military hardware, without having made a lot of our men too sick to fight and without having spent the money we could use to build better weapons. That is, we attack no one and we make what we have the best in the world.

Um..Who were the ones who put Saddam in power in the first place? That's right, it's been tried and it didn't work. Saddam isn't a puppet.

 

[Smooth Criminal]

Perhaps both the Chinese and American governments understand that a massive intercontinental cruise missile attack is a fucking stupid idea, especially against a nuclear power.

HAHAHAHA. thank you. You can't get more blunt and freakin simple than that to shed light on something so logical. The whole cruise missile attack contention is ridiculous.

 

[Smooth Criminal]

the trade deficit will diminish as China develops and the Yuan appreciates.

Which of course will only happen in your dreams. China being the worlds fastest growing exporter is not one to be turned tables upon.

While several countries would appreciate to see the yuan revalued and do "diplomatically" push for that goal, they will never infact make economic or military steps to see that infact happen, and China currently has no reason to comply with such an inquiry.

European economy is in a slump, the American economy is just beginning to regain growth, and both nations foreign investment is primarily pouring into China as it grows out to become the worlds largest consumer market of 1.3 billion people. China gains edge in market competitiveness with the current value of the Yuan which greatly stimulates their growth, while is in conflict with US and EU interests will not be sanctioned. For the simple fact that China is in a position where it can get away with it. The US and EU cannot risk to lose their futures largest consumer base, to lose a large percentage of cheap import products and to deteriorate relations.

As long as China has the ultimate upperhand, which it will for the forseeable future nothing major will come out of the international "nudging" to reavulate their currency.

 

[Light]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but even Russia has successfully developed a nuke that could take out the entire state of texas. alone. That's one Nuke.

I believe you are greatly misinformed! Do you have any idea just how big Texas is? There is no such device capable of that. Multiple missles with multiple warheads could take out parts of the major cities but that's the extent of it. Perhaps you want to recheck your information??????

 

[Smooth Criminal]

I believe you are greatly misinformed! Do you have any idea just how big Texas is? There is no such device capable of that. Multiple missles with multiple warheads could take out parts of the major cities but that's the extent of it. Perhaps you want to recheck your information??????

Ok, thanks for the correction. I'm gonna check on that piece of information.

 

[Smooth Criminal]

Ok, thanks for the correction. I'm gonna check on that piece of information.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsar_Bomba

Ok, apparently that was the worlds largest Nuclear Bomb.

Can anyone put into perspective the size of that thing by understandable terms?

 

[Smooth Criminal]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsar_Bomba

Ok, apparently that was the worlds largest Nuclear Bomb.

Can anyone put into perspective the size of that thing by understandable terms?

forget it,

http://www.angelfire.com/biz/setpa/CGM/austnuke.html

It wasn't Texas

 

[Smooth Criminal]

Seldom that my local newspaper (One of world's best, if you do not mind day old news translated from all the world's best newspapers and only a few original articles with sources outside of Brazil.) has something you did not see yesterday but the following facts are from one of those few original investigations.

In 2005 China, for first time, exported more cars than it imported.

In Sept 2004 China exhibited five different models at the Frankfurt auto show. (World's most important show and China's first time as exhibitor.)

In 2007, China will begin exporting to US car model "Cherry" made by Cherry Motors. - The eighth largest carmaker of China (A little guy gets the jump on seven bigger ones.) I am guessing at the name, it is not yet certain, but car is. It will sell for approximately 30% less than a comparable Japanese model. Visionary Vehicles, in NYC will be the importer. They hope/ expect (verb in Portuguese is a mix of these two ideas) to sell in US 250,000 units in 2007 and one million annually by 2012.

In 2008, a larger Chinese company, Geely, will export to US a copy of the Honda Civic priced at approximately $10,000. Initially the quality is not expected to be as good as the Civic, but will be a few years later.

In the 12 months, March 2004 to 2005, Company "Great Wall" exported 7,120 light trucks, up 431% for prior March-to-March year. They also make a "sport utility" that seats seven people, and will soon (date not stated) sell for approximately $15,000 in US, but paper also states it will sell for 15K euros.
It is a "Chinese copy" of Korean Hyundai.

Chinese exports in first ten months of 2005, (Jan- October) are up 135% and all of 2005 China will export 125,000 cars.

Toyota had a legal action against Greely Company, not for copying a car, but for selecting a logo, that looks too much like Toyota's. Court decision went against Toyota. Greely can use its Toyota rip off logo.

GM also has legal process going against Cherry motors because Cherry is selling copy of the model Spark. (Spark may be the name only in Brazil - I never heard of it in US, but have not lived in US for 12 years.)

Greely, Great Wall, & Cherry compete inside China and so fiercely that there is no "Chinese association of automakers." All have expansion of capacity under development. Greely will produce 20 times more cars by 2015. (2 million annually) Great Wall will invest US$1.2 billion between 2004 and 2008 to increase its capacity by 600,000 units annually.

China is already the world's third largest market for cars, behind only US and Japan, and very rapidly growing as economy of the people improves.

As I have said here before, it is not a question of "Will China overtake US?" but "How many years until it does so?"

I am confident GM will be bankrupt in only a few years* and Ford a few years after that. China will pick their Cherries with Cherry etc. The Automotive Manufactures Association of Brazil, even with modern facilities and cheap labor, is very worried/scared.
_________________________________________
* So are investors - GM stock is at a 23 year low.

While all of that is fact, It's really more of a puzzle piece to the answer than an answer itself.

 

[Light]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsar_Bomba

Ok, apparently that was the worlds largest Nuclear Bomb.

Can anyone put into perspective the size of that thing by understandable terms?

Well, here's something for you to consider. The area of Texas is about 695,700 sq. kilometers. And the Tsar bomb was reported to have caused damage at a distance of 1,000 km which I figure was only light damage at it's maximum effective range.

 

[Billy T]

...the simple fact that China is in a position where it can get away with it. The US and EU cannot risk to lose their futures largest consumer base, to lose a large percentage of cheap import products and to deteriorate relations. As long as China has the ultimate upperhand, which it will for the forseeable future nothing major will come out of the international "nudging" to reavulate their currency.

You forgot the most important reason why waun will resist US et al pressure. US needs China (and Japan and oil exporters) to finance it ever growing debts. If China were to cease buying US notes all these others would follow to avoid loses.