BRIC+ News & comments

[Billy T]

Obama, Brazil & China interactions:

Obama was in Brazil’s capital today and will be in Rio (the old capital and still HQ for many of Brazil’s largest firms) Sunday, 20 March11. Brazil wants (and has) Obama’s support for a permanent UN security seat. (Some economically lesser and much smaller countries have permanent seats.) Obama wants more trade and oil but he may be several years too late and quite a few dollars short to get much. China passed the US as Brazil's main trading partner a few years ago. In 2010 trade with China was 56 vs 45 billion with the US and the China trade soared up 53% YoY! For examples of what China is buying (in addition to iron ore):

Three years ago China gave 10 billion dollars to PetroBrass (to be repaid by 200,000 brls of oil / day on average for 20 years to be sent to China). More recently, Sinopec paid 7.1 billion to Spain’s Repsol for their 40% share of an important new “pre-salt” oil field / claims and Sinochem paid 3 billion to Norway’s StatOil for their 40% of the “peregrine” field, less than a month ago. – I.e. more than 20 billion has already locked up for decades much of Brazil’s oil production.

And China is locking up decades of supplies of food too, especially now with food prices rising so rapidly:

Page B14 of today’s O Estado de S. Paulo reports Chongqing Grain Group will build in state of Bahia* a 4 billion dollar soy to oil plant with initial capacity to process 1.5 million tons /year making 300,000 tons of soy oil. The plant will employ 300 people and consume ½ of all Bahia’s current soy production. (Probably all after expansion in a few years). This complex to also include, at not disclosed additional cost, storage for 400,000 tons of soy beans for steady year round production (between harvests). Also at more cost, not disclosed, will be a fertilizer factory and new railroad spur to the Bahian port, Porto sul.

My paper is quoting a Chinese paper as stating that 200,000 hectares have been acquired at 1.5 billion dollar cost to assure a supply of 500,000 tons of soy annually. Thus China will need to buy only a million tons of soy or 1/3 Bahia's current production so will be able to hold farmer's prices down. There are currently no soy to oil processors in Bahia, my paper implies. It looks like Bahia will be a Chinese agricultural colony in a few years - labor cost there are significantly lower than in China as is true of all profitable colonies - ask India.

China seems increasingly desperate to spend dollars from reserves and is even buying gold despite being world’s largest producer. Also China is encouraging its citizens to open the new bank “gold holding accounts,” first made legal in December 2010. More than one million Chinese did so in their first three months of existence, buying on average $550 of gold. (12 tons total). China is also encouraging the population to buy and hoard 20 gm silver “Panda bars” (about $22 of silver in each but more expensive as beautifully packaged and engraved (actually stamped) works of art displaying a panda). Having the population put some of its money in precious metals removes it from circulation and fights inflation in a very intelligent way plus China can always quasi confiscated the gold as the US did. The Panda bars are in sealed plastic packages, very suitable for hiding in the ground.
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* Bahia is a moderately larger but poor agricultural state with little industry, but China plans to change that with continued billion dollar investments.

PS today's paper had simple but very clever main cartoon: It shows Brazil's first woman president large in lower left corner / side looking up at tiny plane approaching down from top right. Caption is: "Guess who is coming for dinner?"

Unstated answer of course is: "America's first black president." - The times they sure are "a changing!" A-typically for my age, I am very pleased by that as I worked hard one summer to make part of these changes.

BTW, more on post 380:
Brazil also increased it banks reserve requirement to 20% on most deposits today. Like China, to fight the exported inflation coming from the USA as dollars flee to higher returns / better investments /etc in Brazil & China.

 

[Billy T]

Here is an "outside summary" of what I have been posting here for years:

"... The truth is that most of our leaders in the western world are making plans based on what is best for today, {BT insert: actually for their next election} while in China they are making plans based on what is going to happen five, ten or even twenty* years down the road.

For many years, China had been rapidly accumulating U.S. Treasuries. Well, that era appears to be over. China has been keeping their stockpile of U.S. Treasuries fairly stable for quite a while now. In fact, over the past year Chinese holdings of U.S. Treasuries dipped slightly to $892 billion. {BT insert: and by ~ 100 billion in the prior year - see graph from post 346 at end of this post before historic trade surplus at end of 2010 restored part of that 100 billion dip.} What China has been doing is they have been getting rid of longer-term Treasuries and replacing them with shorter-term Treasuries. Now China does not hold many Treasuries that have a maturity of greater than five years.{BT insert: The FED, not China, is now the largest holder of Treasury paper! -Other potential buyers want higher interest rates. After QE2 ends in June this makes QE3 almost a certainty as trillion dollar plus deficits will continue for years.}

Instead of accumulating U.S. Treasuries, these days China has been diversifying greatly. There has been much more of a focus on hard assets. If the world is indeed heading for a financial implosion, then it certainly does make a lot of sense for China to be accumulating gold, silver and other hard assets. ...

The Chinese have shown themselves to be incredibly shrewd when it comes to financial matters. There have been times in recent years when it has appeared that the Chinese have been playing "economic chess" while the United States has been playing "economic checkers". China is now the second largest economy in the world and their ascent on the world stage has been absolutely stunning.

So when China starts hoarding gold like there is no tomorrow, perhaps we should all start paying attention. Perhaps they know some things that the rest of us don't. Or perhaps they can just see some things that the rest of us simply don't want to see. {Billy T insert: A collapse of the dollar before Halloween 2014} In any event, it is undeniable that China's appetite for gold is stronger than ever and that it continues to grow. ..."

From: http://endoftheamericandream.com/ar...out-gold-fever-in-china-that-may-surprise-you

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* One 20 year example: For a mere 10 billion dollars given about three years ago, China will get an average of 200,000 barrels of oil per day from PetroBras for 20 years. This is however small compared the deals with Venezuela, which will soon not need to (or be able to or want to) sell oil to the USA. The US’s 2nd plan for getting rid of Chavez collapsed less than a year ago when the people of Columbia threw out the US supported right-wing (puppet?) government. One of the first acts of the new government was to cancel the treaty/ agreement which allowed the US to build or expand 11 air fields that could launch fighter bombers. Two of these bases were on the border with Brazil and that prompted Brazil to order new air defense systems, and dozens of interceptor fighters. (That contract is delayed now, but President Lulu said contract should be for the French plane, not the more expensive US one, nor the cheaper one from Sweden.) Also four new submarines from France to help protect Brazil's off-shore oil platforms, etc. are still on order, AFAIK.

See adjacent post 381 for more examples of China locking up Brazilian oil (this time by buying 40% of new oil fields) that will be producing for at least 30 years.

The 1st attempt did depose Chavez for a few days but masses of people took to the streets supporting him until the wealthy and their “Bay of Pigs” like mercenaries ceased trying to govern. Presumably the fighter/bombers were to keep them off the streets in the 2nd attempt. The CIA may be too busy with current problems to give much attention now to "Plan C" for getting rid of Chavez.


For discussion of why & how China is encouraging its population to buy Gold and Silver see:
http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2706702&postcount=170 For 10 "surprising facts" about China and gold see:
http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2718140&postcount=174

In the first three months that they could open "gold holding accounts" in their local banks, more than 1 million Chinese did so and set aside 12 tons of gold. China's plan for citizens hoarding silver may consume the entire global prodution - see link 170 and links therein for photo of the beautiful 20gm silver Panda Bars China is intenally selling. (All this takes money out of circulation and thus also helps with the inflation problem. As above quote states: The CCP has been "incredibly shrewd when it comes to financial matters" locking up much of the still available to the market known reserves of oil, etc. for up to 30 years and moving tons of gold and silver into China each year as it dumps decreasing value dollars.

"...

China has started to cut back its US paper holdings, mainly by not rolling maturing longer term bonds.***

*** That increases the US's need to print even more money to pay China off....

Note Japan holds 886 Billion dollars of US treasury bonds and the financial cost of the quake is now expected to exceed 300 billion. Japan has most of its debt held by Japanese - why they can have the 200% of GDP debt without collapse long ago. It will be very hard for them not to sell at least 200 billion of US treasury paper. That will drive interest rates up. This "black swan" may have wings that reach into the US's already disastrous housing market if mortgage rates climb back to more normal levels.

 

[Billy T]

“… A few weeks before the tsunami struck Fukushima’s uranium reactors and shattered public faith in nuclear power, China revealed that it was launching a rival technology to build a safer, cleaner, and ultimately cheaper network of reactors based on thorium. … China’s Academy of Sciences said it had chosen a “thorium-based molten salt reactor system”. The liquid fuel idea was pioneered by US physicists at Oak Ridge National Lab in the 1960s, but the US has long since dropped the ball. {Billy T insert: mainly because making nuclear bombsd with thorium is impossible – Thorium fission does not produce enough neutrons to sustain a chain reaction.} Dr Cywinski, who anchors a UK-wide thorium team, said the residual heat left behind in a crisis would be “orders of magnitude less” than in a uranium reactor. Chinese scientists claim that hazardous waste will be a thousand times less than with uranium. The system is inherently less prone to disaster. “The reactor has an amazing safety feature,” said Kirk Sorensen, a former NASA engineer at Teledyne Brown and a thorium expert.
…
Summary: the cold war’s need for bombs took the world down the wrong nuclear energy path. The Japanese disaster may be a change to change paths.

Part of my post at: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2718805&postcount=19

 

[Billy T]

{post 381, in part}... And China is locking up decades of supplies of food too, especially now with food prices rising so rapidly:

Page B14 of today’s O Estado de S. Paulo reports Chongqing Grain Group will build in state of Bahia* a 4 billion dollar soy to oil plant with initial capacity to process 1.5 million tons /year making 300,000 tons of soy oil. The plant will employ 300 people and consume ½ of all Bahia’s current soy production. (Probably all after expansion in a few years). This complex to also include, at not disclosed additional cost, storage for 400,000 tons of soy beans for steady year round production (between harvests). Also at more cost, not disclosed, will be a fertilizer factory and new railroad spur to the Bahian port, Porto sul.

My paper is quoting a Chinese paper as stating that 200,000 hectares have been acquired at 1.5 billion dollar cost to assure a supply of 500,000 tons of soy annually. Thus China will need to buy only a million tons of soy or 1/3 Bahia's current production so will be able to hold farmer's prices down. There are currently no soy to oil processors in Bahia, my paper implies. It looks like Bahia will be a Chinese agricultural colony in a few years - labor cost there are significantly lower than in China as is true of all profitable colonies - ask India. ...

The other main newspaper of Sao Paulo reports today that China will invest 12 billion in agriculture development in another more central Brazilian state, mainly for more assured supply of soy beans at a price they can control by being the producer. China will not suffer as much as many with the rapid food inflation as it is spending declining dollars from reserves to get items of increasing value.

 

[Billy T]

More on China dumping declining dollars for real assets, with increasing value:

"... Minmetals Resources Ltd., the Hong Kong unit of China’s biggest metals trader, made an unsolicited offer of about C$6.3 billion ($6.5 billion) in cash for Equinox Minerals Ltd., in China’s biggest minerals takeover. Minmetals bid C$7 a share, 23 percent more than Perth-based Equinox’s closing price in Toronto on April 1, ..."

From: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aI2ZLFTYROAg&pos=2

Spending 3 or four billion (on average) every day for real assets can burn a Trillion dollars of reserves a year - That seems to be China's objective - Hell despite being world's largest producer of gold they are well on their way to becoming the world's largest buying of it by end of 2011!

 

[Billy T]

“… Bank of China increased its benchmark lending rate, effective tomorrow April 6, from 6.06% to 6.31%. The bank’s one-year deposit rate {like US’s 1yr CD}will go to 3.25%, from 3%. (Of course, with inflation running near a 5% annual rate, keeping money in the bank even at the new rate is a losing proposition.)…”
From: http://www.moneyshow.com/investing/...22691/Chinas-Rate-Hike-Bad-News-for-Inflation

Billy T comment: China is importing gold at last twice as fast as last year, but one can expect the rate to soar more as now private citizens can open “gold accounts” in bank. Why would anyone hold yuan bank account to lose ~2% /year of their purchasing power, when a gold account will probably gain at least 10%/ year in purchasing power?

Read more on these new gold holding bank accounts, how China is importing more gold than ever (despite being world’s largest producer of gold), and how China is also encouraging its citizens to buy and hold silver at: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2706702&postcount=170

US citizens don't have the same convenient way to buy gold at their bank. AFAIK, ounces of gold bank accounts only exist in China.
The politicians and FED want your only have paper money bank accounts which can rapidly lose purchasing power as part of the "monetization" of US's growing debts.

 

[Billy T]

China & Brazil’s presidents shake on 1.4 billion dollar deal:

“ … China Southern Airlines and Heibei Airlines each placed orders for 10 Embraer E-190 planes with option to buy 15 additional aircraft. These are narrow-body planes which can seat up to 100 passengers. China's economic success has seen a surge in demand for air travel within the country. Embraer has been looking to tap into the fast growing market. The company has been lobbying for permission to start producing its E-jet series of planes in China.

China is Brazil's biggest trading partner and foreign investor as trade between China and Brazil has surged in the last 10 years. China has also made investments in Brazil, and its goods have been flooding the Brazilian markets. This has led to fears in Brazil that China's growth and investment may hurt domestic businesses* …” From: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13045546

*Billy T comment: It will and is. Dozens of Brazilian manufactures have closed their doors. For example, simple steel tools like a hammer (probably made from Brazilian iron ore sold to China) are no longer made in Brazil as Chinese imports are cheaper than local production. This is mainly a "market volume factor" as local wages differ little. As I forecast long ago, Brazil is becoming an “economic colony” of China. – That will at least protect it from the depression that will hit US and EU within less than four years.

BTW, an interesting "body language" comment on relative importance of China, Brazil & USA:
About two weeks ago, Obama came to Brazil, hoping to boost bi-lateral trade. Now Brazil's woman president is in China, with the same objective (and much more success). China need not go begging anywhere.

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“…Brazil is one the fastest growing economies in the world, making it an attractive market for companies. However, many firms have not been able to tap fully into this potential as high import tariffs make their goods expensive.

Foxconn is the biggest contract electronics manufacturer in the world. Ms Rousseff {Brazil’s President} said that her government was discussing various options with the company. "You've got an ample range of investments that go from $300-to-$400m to $12bn over 5 to 6 years in the case of Foxconn," she said.

Meanwhile, Brazil's science and technology minister Aloizio Mercadante said if discussions and negotiations go smoothly, Foxconn is planning to begin assembling iPads at its plants in Brazil as early as this year. "The negotiations are far from complete but I'm confident," he said. …” From: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13058866

Billy T comment: Note the words “assembling iPads.” Chery is also planning to assemble cars this year in Brazil. Many Chinese bicycles are assembled in Brazil. It is not that Brazilian labor is cheaper than in China, (it isn’t) but that unassembled parts enter Brazil with much lower import duty.

Few realize it but Brazil’s internal market is large amd unlike the US, the real purchasing power of salaries is rapidly growing. (Brazil is known for its exports, but they make up only 8% of GDP!)

Many Chinese and others are coming to Brazil for that large, growing, market and ducking most of the import duties by building assembling centers here. – That makes low skill local jobs, even though, they are not manufacturing jobs, which Brazil is losing to China. These low skill jobs are badly needed as millions of poorly educated workers no longer cut sugar cane. - It is nearing 100% mechanical harvest now. Thanks to the "Bolsa Familia" tax supported program, their educated children will get good paying jobs in the cities instead of earn very little working on the family farm.

Real salaries now buy a lot more imported items as the Brazilain Real is so strong. As noted in first part of this post, you can not commercially make a hammer in Brazil now as they are so cheap to import with the strong Real.

 

[Billy T]

More on post 387 - Here are other highlight from ChinaDaily’s report on the Brazil/China meeting/agreements:

“…Both countries agreed to promote the registration of Brazil's poultry and beef companies and vowed to quicken procedures to add new products onto their import and export lists.

China and Brazil agreed to work more closely on reforming international financial and monetary systems under the G20 framework ... {For more details, see: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGmtBln_U9vU&pos=6 }

Chinese and Brazilian companies signed 13 deals and cooperation documents: including purchase of 35 E190 planes … worth about $1.4 billion. The aircraft can seat 98 to 114 people. About 80 Embraer planes are currently in operation in China.

Embraer, the third largest global airplane manufacturer behind Boeing and Airbus, was also set to sign an agreement with the State-owned Aviation Industry Corporation of China to manufacture the firm's Legacy 600 business jet, Brazilian officials told AFP.

{Billy T insert: It had years of back log orders after one collided with big Boeing, which broke into two pieces*, killing more than 300 people, but the tiny Embraer jet flew on, with damaged wing and tail for more than half an hour to land safely with no one injured!}

The two presidents on Tuesday night also witnessed the signing ceremony of eight other cooperation documents, including one on defense signed by the defense minister and Brazil's foreign minister. No details of the agreements were released. Hu said in the talks that "the China-Brazil strategic partnership has become a successful example of South-South cooperation and has an increasing global impact and strategic significance", according to a press release issued by the Foreign Ministry. ...”

* Quite possibly the impact did not directly break the Boeing into two pieces. That may have happened minutes later due to control or aero-dynamic damage. The Boeing debris were found concentrated in the jungle at two spots several miles apart, as it fell from more than 30,000 feet. The business jet had been sold to a US firm and was being delivered by two American pilots, not very familiar with Brazil's fight lanes, and they appear to have disabled its collision avoidance transponder system. - The Boeing never knew what hit them at more than 1000mph relative velocity or that any thing was coming at them.

Brazilian air traffic control was also at fault. - They knew the little jet was in a South bound altitude lane, but did not keep trying to tell them of their altitude error after a few tries when the L600 exited their region of control nor tell the next region of control of the problem.

 

[Billy T]

Presidents of five countries finished the 3d BRIC summit in China (S. Africa was included):

“… BRIC joint communique, termed the Sanya Declaration, said the current {financial / political} system was no longer representative. {Want Brazil and/or India added to the permanent Security Council}"The governing structure of the international financial institutions should reflect the changes in the world economy, increasing the voice and representation of emerging economies and developing countries," it said.

The Brics called for a broad-based international reserve currency system and for the International Monetary Fund to expand its use of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). They agreed to cease using the dollar for their mutual trade and use their local currencies instead.- Will create mutual credit lines denominated in their local currencies.*

The four nations have 40% of the world's population and almost a fifth of the world's growth. {And ~1/3 of global trade} …”

From: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-13076229 with {Billy T inserts}

* Note China has already done this for most of its Asian trading partners. In a few years, no more than half of world trade will use dollars. Central banks, especially China's are decreasing the percentage of dollars held in reserves (increasing the fraction of Euros and gold, but gold is still only a tiny part). This is partly due to fact China has been buying bonds of even the more financially troubled members of EU and partly due to the fact Euro assets already held are worth more dollars now with ~1.45 dollars required to buy a Euro.

 

[Pinwheel]

BRIC is now BRICS with South Africa?

 

[Billy T]

BRIC is now BRICS with South Africa?

not known yet. I suspect that other economically significant on a global scale will also join. Obviously, one can not just keep adding another letter, if that is the case. Thus, I think BRIC will lose it original specific reference to four countries and come to mean countries of growing importance which are not adequately represented in Global institutions, such as the UN Security council, the world bank (the president of which is an American one year and a European the next, etc.) the IMF, the world court, etc.

I.e. in 10 years, BRIC (or perhaps BRICK) will simply mean globally important countries that were not part of the "old boys club" that ruled the world during the 1900s. - BRICKs are countries with solid, like a brick, growing economies with debt and inflation under control as contrasted to the US and EU which have collapsing economies.

Before 2020, the US and EU will come with hat in hand asking the BRICKs for financial loans, a "Marshall Plan" to help them recover from the depression that hit them so hard in the second decade of the 21st century.

The financial world will be turned upside down, with the new foundation being the BRICKs. Of course, if that does not happen as I expect, then most likely the term will just not be used much as with 8 or 9 members and no dominate position in the world's economy, there will not be much need of the term. They have very little in common and many disagreement between them even with only four BRICs.

 

[Billy T]

Interesting fact I just read (and some day location of sugar cane production for fuel and plastics?):

"... About 70% of Indonesia’s landmass is occupied by tropical rainforest, and the country is the largest exporter of thermal coal and natural gas. In addition, it has significant exposure to many soft commodities. ..."

I never thought of Indonesia as one of the world's energy production centers and likely to gain in percentage supplied as oil gets more expensive. Those "world's largest" energy exports are probably going to China (and some to India) - Why I did not know about them.
Like Brazil, Indonesia seems well on its way to becoming an "economic colony" of China (and of India?) but safe from the global depression in US and EU coming soon.

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More on China's recent buy of 40% of Norway's Statoil owned Brazilian field:

"... Norway's Statoil said on Thursday it has made {another} significant new oil find near its big Peregrino field off Brazil, where production began last week, raising the possibility of a satellite development area. Statoil said its drilling crew struck "a significant gross oil column of 130 metres" in a structure called Peregrino South near its main Peregrino centre, where it expects to produce 100,000 barrels a day in partnership with China's Sinochem. The new discovery and an older one south-west of Peregrino could jointly hold some 100-300 million barrels of oil on top of the 300-600 million that Peregrino is thought to contain. "The South and South-west (reservoir) structures have the potential to hold an additional 100-300 million barrels of oil," Statoil's Executive Vice President Tim Dodson told Reuters. ..."

Billy T comment:China is not only being smart to assure future supplies of needed energy and materials, paying now up front with declining value dollar, but this time got lucky too. I don't think Statoil can back out of the sale, but not all government approvals are in. I hope they can as I hold shares in Statoil - why I got this news today from C.Schwab and would rather see Norway than China own this oil.

 

[Eflex tha Vybe Scientist]

http://articles.economictimes.india...83_1_economies-food-security-local-currencies

Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa - the BRICS group of fastest growing economies - Thursday signed an agreement to use their own currencies instead of the predominant US dollar in issuing credit or grants to each other.

The agreement, the first-of-its-kind, was signed at the 3rd BRICS summit here attended by Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, China's Hu Jintao, Brazil's Dilma Rousseff, Russia's Dmitry Medvedev and South Africa's Jacob Zuma.

"Our designated banks have signed a framework agreement on financial cooperation which envisages grant of credit in local currencies and cooperation in capital markets and other financial services," Manmohan Singh told reporters at a news conference with other BRICS leaders.

 

[Billy T]

... Thursday signed an agreement to use their own currencies instead of the predominant US dollar in issuing credit or grants to each other. ...

Yes I reported that and several other points of agreement several days ago in post 389.

I can now add from my local paper some specifics:

The bank of Development China has already extended credit to other BRICs equal to 38 billion dollar. For several years now it has given credits (in exchange for getting the same) to / with more than a dozen other Asian nations. All so that the dollar is no longer used for their mutual trade.

I think I recall reading the Brazil has 17 billion dollar line of credit from China. - Probably the major part of the 38 billion Bric total.

Like wise for a couple of years Brazil and Argentina have mainly avoided the use of the dollar in their mutual trade. For example in 2010, of the 32.5 billion R$ trade, only only 1.2 billion R$ were settled in dollars.

A couple of years ago, China gave Brazil's oil company 10 billion dollars which will be repaid by delivery of 200,000 BRL/ day (on average) of oil to China for 20 years. I just learned of their more recent deal with Russia for oil: Russia gets 25 billion now (up front) and pays it back with 300,000 BRLs / day until 2030.

A growing combination of mutual currency credits and China dumping dollars from its reserves to future delivery of oil, other minerals and ownership of farm land is making the dollar ever less important for world trade.

The "sh_t will really hit the dollar when oil is no longer sold only for dollars. All central banks are reducing their holdings of dollars now, slowly, although couple of months go a group of Arab oil producers cut 9% from their reserves essentially over night. - They did not roll maturing bonds but too cashed them in and put part into Pounds and Euros and part into gold. - Part of why gold hit a new all time high again today of $1477.99 / oz (silver too at 31 year high of $42.71 /oz. That would be and all time high also, if one excludes the week or two when the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the market (buy all available silver and have the short sellers at their very limited mercy.)

17April11 correction: The credit line China gave Brazil in Yuan credits is equal to 14 billion dollars, not 17 as I remembered. 17 billion is how much new capital PetroBras needs now to continue its exploration and development of the newly discovered, "pre-salt" oil. They want China to loan it, in a deal like the one just signed with Russia (see text above) instead of issue new stock or borrow from banks, etc. they are in late stages of discussion with the Chinese Development Bank. -The deal will probably firm up by end of the month at the same effective evaluation of the oil as in the Russian deal.

$17billion is ~2/3 of the 25 billion granted to Russian so Brazil send 2/3 as much oil for same period or 200,000 BRL/day. Note this is the same repayment rate as the older deal repayment in oil for which Brazil only got 10 Billion, but oil is more expensive now. If that is the deal, Brazil is getting 70% more for its oil than three years go. I.e. China got a good deal back then and very likely is getting a good deal now even paying 70% more as oil may be >$500/ BRL before the last barrels are delivered.

Too bad the US is too broke to buy oil while it is cheap for future delivery as China is doing all over the oil producing world. China putting a warship into the Med Sea for the first time ever and operating a full battle group off Yeman etc. to help fight the pirates, plus testing its new "final approach maneuvering" ICBM, which US military says can sink a zig-zagging US carrier, has lot to do with US's history of taking the oil of others, like Donald Trump is suggesting we do to Iraq, now. China's first of several aircraft carriers is nearing the sea trials stage. China will have a strong "blue water" navy when it needs to defend its purchased oil. US, if in the depression I have long predicted, will not have oil for an operational carrier group.

 

[Billy T]

"... The Indian defence ministry picked the pan-European Eurofighter and France-based Dessault's Rafale ahead of jets made by Boeing and Lockheed Martin. The US ambassador in India said the US was "deeply disappointed" by the news. ..."
From: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13233177

Brazil too is shopping for new interceptor fighter jets. Officially the US is still in the running, but recent president Lula announced, just before leaving office that the order would be for France's Rafale. It is highly likely that the US will be "deeply disappointed" again:

In part because the US backed the right wing over throw of the democratically elected president of Honduras and recognized the military junta, while every South American country (except the puppet government of the US in Columbia) did not. The expelled president took refuge in the Brazilian Embassy for about a year.

Also, US will be "deeply disappointed" again because the prior puppet government of Columbia had granted the US the right to build or expand 11 airfields for fighter/bombers. Two of which were to be right on the border with Brazil and would allow most of Brazil to be bombed without aerial refueling. - Why Brazil placed the order for the fighter / interceptors and is negotiating with Russia still for four very-modern (reported to be able to hit ICBMs also) mobile ground to air missile defense systems. Each system has four multiple missiles launcher units and a central control system unit. (Russia has never before let this new model out of their country.)

Fortunately the newly elected Columbian Government tore up that agreement permitting the US to base fighter bombers on it soil, and re-established trade relation with Hugo Chavez to build a peaceful relationship between the two countries. I believe it was the US's intention to again try to remove Hugo by force - the last time he was only out of power for only three days before the masses jammed the streets demanding his return. The fighter bomber would have been able to keep them off the streets for CIA's right-wing thugs to keep control longer the next time.

As soon as the two new heavy oil processing refiners China is helping to build are functional, Hugo will cut off about 10 to 12% of the US oil supply. Currently only the US gulf-coast refiners can process that heavy crude. Thus the US is building an new large diameter pipeline (the keystone extension) to bring Canadian shale oil to these Gulf-Coast refineries.

... to give these gulf coast refineries crude to process after they are cut off, there was expected to be a large new pipeline bringing shale oil heavy crude down from Canada, but had no link to that at the time. Here is more (map and some text) on the pipeline planned for when Chavez can cut the US off from about 12% of its oil supply:

"...The State Department is set to issue what could be a final ruling to allow a massive new pipeline expansion from central Alberta to the Gulf of Mexico. ... Known as "Keystone expansion," {DASHED LINE IN THE MAP} the project is an expansion of an existing pipeline that now terminates in Oklahoma. Stretching over 1,600 miles -- four times the length of the Trans-Alaska system -- the new pipeline would be one of the biggest in the country. ..." From: http://money.cnn.com/2010/12/23/news/economy/oil_sands_pipeline/index.htm?a=4

SUMMARY: Here again is another example of how China is "eating the US's lunch" (or oil in this case.) High speed rail exports is another. trade with S. Korean, yet another, not to mention most of the rest of Asia as China increasing supplies their hi-tech needs in trade for their cheap labor, low value added, components China imports from them. China/ India just agreed to expand their trade to 100 billion dollars value per year, but they don't plan to use dollars. China agreed to import more from India so the trade is balanced. (Currently China has a trade surplus with India settled in dollars.)

From: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2667151&postcount=62

“… Billy T comment: Venezuela’s proven shale oil field is bigger than Canada’s - See third graph below. It is not as well explored as Hugo, drives Western oil companies out of Venezuela, confiscates their drill rigs etc. Only the yet unknown "probably reserves" alone, when explored, are likely exceed Canada's total. China is likely to make huge profits on the billions it is giving Hugo. For more on how China is locking up decades of oil and its other needs, read my old post at: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2731307&postcount=1140

... Hugo hates the US and owes the oil to China for the funds received.

Brazil surely has much more, not yet "proven."

From: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2732256&postcount=83

 

[Billy T]

“… China Marine Surveillance's Sun Shuxian said 1,000 new personnel would be added as well as new equipment. Sea patrols would be carried out more frequently "to strengthen law enforcement in Chinese-related waters", the China Daily quoted him as saying. Mr Sun, the agency's deputy director, said that as well as increasing staff, another 36 inspection ships would be added over the next five years. "New equipment will be installed on part of the inspection fleet to improve law enforcement capacity," the newspaper quoted him as saying. …”

{BT comment: I think you are to understand that as guns and ship-to-ship missiles.}
From: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-13257263

China's claim to the Spratley Islands is based on fact they have manned several with weather and radio relay stations etc. on them. As I recall, one is not even above water when higher than normal tides occur. - Everything is up on stilts, but it is "occupied" Chinese national territory, from the Chinese POV and probably will stay that way as in the real world, "might make rights." A few years ago, Vietnam (or some country also claiming islands) tried to sell oil explorations leases, but no oil company even bid. - They knew China would not allow their extraction of oil from what it claimed to be Chinese islands.

China has a rapidly growing “blue water” navy : ten ships operating off East Africa and one frigate in the Mediterranean Sea – first time ever a Chinese was ship operated there. China’s first of several aircraft carriers is now in sea trials. In the South China Sea (map above) they dominate all other naval forces, but US could go there, if needed for balance. China is physically occupying several of the disputed islands and there is little anyone can do to stop this defacto exercise of their claims.

 

[Billy T]

up date on Keystone oil pipeline (map in post 395)"

"... The {Canadian} letter said the EU's plan to rate oil sands fuel as having a bigger carbon footprint than other sources, raised the prospect of "unjustified discrimination". {however it is true that} The mining of bitumen and its conversion into usable fuel require large amounts of energy which in turn produce green house gases.

Meanwhile Canada's plan to expand its oil exports to the United States has been encountering growing resistance from politicians south of the border. {Environmental concerns and NIMBY}

The key project for growth in the US is TransCanada Corporation's $13 billion Keystone XL pipeline, which would deliver 1.1 million barrels of crude a day from Alberta, through six American states, to refineries on Texas' gulf coast. But the project is not moving forward in the the way the industry had hoped.

From: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13244503

BT comment:Keystone pipeline will become a little opposed high priority project when Hugo Chavez cuts off at least 10% of US's imported oil and the Gulf State refineries close for lack of crude to process. Read details in post 395, second part.

 

[Billy T]

up date on Keystone oil pipeline (map in post 395):

"... The {Canadian} letter said the EU's plan to rate oil sands fuel as having a bigger carbon footprint than other sources, raised the prospect of "unjustified discrimination". {however it is true that} The mining of bitumen and its conversion into usable fuel require large amounts of energy which in turn produce green house gases.

Meanwhile Canada's plan to expand its oil exports to the United States has been encountering growing resistance from politicians south of the border. {Environmental concerns and NIMBY}

The key project for growth in the US is TransCanada Corporation's $13 billion Keystone XL pipeline, which would deliver 1.1 million barrels of crude a day from Alberta, through six American states, to refineries on Texas' gulf coast. But the project is not moving forward in the the way the industry had hoped.

From: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13244503

BT comment:Keystone pipeline will become a little opposed high priority project when Hugo Chavez cuts off at least 10% of US's imported oil and the Gulf State refineries close for lack of crude to process. Read details in post 395, second part.

 

[Billy T]

Chinese Report, just released, up dates post 396:

"... Chinese territorial waters were entered 1,303 times by foreign ships and 214 times by foreign airplanes in 2010, according to the State Oceanic Administration, the Beijing Times reported Tuesday.

The marine monitoring departments conducted 523 flights and 188 sails to monitor intrusions into its territorial waters last year, said Sun Shuxian, Party secretary of the Chinese marine surveillance squad.

The departments took 57,332 photos and recorded 6,921 minutes of video of trespassing ships and airplanes, and organized operations to expel them.

From: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2011-05/03/content_12435945.htm

 

[Billy T]

May 3 (Reuters) - " Wal-Mart Stores Inc , the world's biggest retailer, will invest 1.2 billion reais ($759 million) in Brazil this year to tap buoyant consumer demand in Latin America's largest economy, the unit's top executive said on Tuesday.

Wal-Mart Brasil Chief Executive Marcos Samaha told reporters in Brasilia that the plan aims to build 80 new stores including hypermarkets, discount stores, warehouse retailing units and grocery shops by the end of the year, creating 7,000 jobs. Wal-Mart's plans underscore its growing interest in Brazil, where consumption is solidly supported by record job creation and rising wages as millions join an emerging middle class. More than half of the new stores will focus on serving lower middle-class families -- the bulk of consumers in the 190 million nation. "

Closely related news (From my local Brazilian paper): In 1Q11, Brazil for the first time ever imported more from China than from the US. Mainly it was an increase in imported Chinese cars. ($26.4 million dollars worth of Chinese cars vs 16.1 million in 1Q10.) Some years ago, Brazil started to export more to China than to the US.