BRIC+ News & comments

Some facts on Brazil, Alcohol, Sugar, GHG & Government Intervention:

1) The global price of sugar is near an all time high (near 30 cents per pound).

2) Thus, production of alcohol was reduced to make more sugar (and also in Brazil there was excess rain, which both lower the sugar content in the cane and made mechanical harvesting more difficult and slow. India, second largest producer, had just the opposite problem – too little rain. This is why sugar is so expensive now.)

3) The large elevation in the price of fuel alcohol in Brazil removed its cost advantage compared to gasoline. Thus, many fex-fuel cars started to use gasoline. This caused the price of gasoline to increase 4% and PetroBras to stop exporting any. (PetroBras is majority owned and controlled by the government. This termination of exports was partially an election year measure to keep voters from becoming angry.)

4) Also to help return the price of alcohol to competitive against gasoline, the government lowered the alcohol content of gasoline. Normally it is 25% but now only 20%. – this is like a 7% increase in the supply of alcohol fuel. That helps keep both fuels less expensive.

Now a few facts about land used for alcohol and other agricultural products & activities in Brazil:
Of the total 297 million agricultural hectares in Brazil*
2% are used for growing sugar cane.
4% are used for growing corn.
6% are used for growing other crops not listed here.
7% are used for growing soy beans
80% are used for growing pasture grass, mainly for beef production, or are abandoned pasture. Sugar cane is a grass and will grow most anywhere grass will grow. Only by recovery of the abandoned pasture, the cane production in Brazil could be increase 500%.

Thus the often stated claims that alcohol is reducing food production is nonsense at least in Brazil; but that may be true in the USA. The production of beef is becoming more concentrated, so that is freeing up pasture. For example in the state of Sao Paulo, which produces nearly half of all the sugar cane, in the one year from 2004 to 2005 the number of cattle went from 128 to141 steers per square kilometer.

Brazil has the world’s largest beef herd, but as it is grass feed the price is lower than feed lot cattle.I do not know recent data, but before the recent draughts in Australia, the value of Australia’s beef production was slightly greater than that of Brazil’s larger herd. Perhaps now both by numbers and by value, Brazil's herd is number one in the world.

The belched methane by this herd is a much greater contribution to Green House Gases than all the cars and power plants in Brazil! (Partially because more than 85% of Brazil’s electric power is hydro power and about half the fleet runs on alcohol (a slight negative contributor to GHG production)

If you want to help reduce GHG production, eat less beef.

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* I am almost sure that the huge amount of land growing trees for paper pulp is not included in this 297 million agricultural hectares. Brazil's is the world's lowest cost producer fo pulp for paper, but may not be the largest producer as Canada and Scandinavia are closer to the main markets.

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Here is link about India's power production problems cause by the lack of rain/ lack of cane. (In both countries, the crushed cane contributes significatly to the national electric grid. This simple power production will be an alternative use that celulosic alcohol will need to compete with. Both for bagesse and other fiber sources. Bagesse is the cheapest thermal fuel as not only is it free, like wood scraps, it is also already at the thermal power plant.):

http://www.livemint.com/2010/01/14213932/Cogen-at-sugar-mills-could-pos.html

Where you can read:
"In years when cane availability drops, power plants find it difficult to operate at full capacity. Low or lack of cogen power has another effect. Sugar companies have started importing and refining raw sugar to make up for the cane shortfall. Without power, they cannot refine sugar either. So companies are embarking on a new path; they are seeking to become power producers using coal. ..."

AFAIK, Brazil is never short of crushed cane and gets nearly 10% of its power from buring bagasse. It also supplies all the energy need for distilation of the alcohol. Thus, in country that uses fossil fuel for power (like India) alcohol fuel for cars is a significantly negative contributor to GHGs as the bagasse produced power displaces the burning of fossil fuels for power.
 
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China has completed first stage of its strategic oil storage facility / reserves (but PeoplesDaily article does not tell the current or planned capacity).

"... Last year, China extended over 60 billion U.S. dollars of loans to oil producers in Russia, Brazil and Venezuela in exchange of annual oil supply of 75 million tons,...

In last December, China imported 21.26 millions of crude oil, setting a new record, according to data from the General Administration of Customs (GAC). China's oil import in the whole 2009 reached 204 million tons, and its dependence on imported oil is estimated to be around 52 percent.

An oil pipeline linking Russia's far east to China's northeast is set to start operation by the end of 2010. The pipeline would transport 15 million tons of crude oil annually from Russia to China, he added. ..."

From: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90778/90860/6871469.html

Billy T comment:
China has the cash to sign up long term (up to 30 years) supply contracts. US has neither the cash nor the long term planning needed to do so. US only plans thru the next election.
 
Why America and China will clash

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e9306da0-0461-11df-8603-00144feabdc0.html

Why America and China will clash

By Gideon Rachman

Published: January 18 2010 19:54 | Last updated: January 18 2010 19:54

Pinn

Google’s clash with China is about much more than the fate of a single, powerful firm. The company’s decision to pull out of China, unless the government there changes its policies on censorship, is a harbinger of increasingly stormy relations between the US and China.

The reason that the Google case is so significant is because it suggests that the assumptions on which US policy to China have been based since the Tiananmen massacre of 1989 could be plain wrong. The US has accepted – even welcomed – China’s emergence as a giant economic power because American policymakers convinced themselves that economic opening would lead to political liberalisation in China.

If that assumption changes, American policy towards China could change with it. Welcoming the rise of a giant Asian economy that is also turning into a liberal democracy is one thing. Sponsoring the rise of a Leninist one-party state, that is America’s only plausible geopolitical rival, is a different proposition. Combine this political disillusionment with double-digit unemployment in the US that is widely blamed on Chinese currency manipulation, and you have the formula for an anti-China backlash.

Both Bill Clinton and George W. Bush firmly believed that free trade and, in particular, the information age would make political change in China irresistible. On a visit to China in 1998, Mr Clinton proclaimed: “In this global information age, when economic success is built on ideas, personal freedom is essential to the greatness of any nation.” A year later, Mr Bush made a similar point: “Economic freedom creates habits of liberty. And habits of liberty create expectations of democracy ... Trade freely with the Chinese and time is on our side.”

The two presidents were reflecting the conventional wisdom among America’s most influential pundits. Tom Friedman, New York Times columnist and author of best-selling books on globalisation, once proclaimed bluntly: “China’s going to have a free press. Globalisation will drive it.” Robert Wright, one of Mr Clinton’s favourite thinkers, argued that if China chose to block free access to the internet, “the price would be dismal economic failure”.

So far, the facts are refusing to conform to the theory. China has continued to censor new and old media, but this has hardly condemned it to “dismal economic failure”. On the contrary, China is now the world’s second largest economy and its largest exporter, with foreign reserves above $2,000bn. But all this economic growth shows little sign of provoking the political changes anticipated by Bush and Clinton. If anything, the Chinese government seems to be getting more repressive. Liu Xiaobo, a leading Chinese dissident, was recently sentenced to 11 years in prison for his involvement in the Charter 08 movement that advocates democratic reforms.

Google’s decision to confront the Chinese government is an early sign that the Americans are getting fed up with dealing with Chinese authoritarianism. But the biggest pressures are likely to come from politicians rather than businessmen. Google is an unusual company in an unusually politicised industry. If the Googlers do indeed head for the exits in China, they are unlikely to be crushed by a stampede of other multinationals rushing to follow them. To most big companies the country’s market is too large and tempting to ignore. Despite Google, US business is likely to remain the lobby that argues hardest for continuing engagement with China.

The pressures for disengagement will come from labour activists, security hawks and politicians – particularly in Congress. To date, the Obama administration has based its policy firmly on the assumptions that have governed America’s approach to China for a generation. The president’s recent set-piece speech on Asia was a classic statement of the case for US engagement with China – complete with the ritualistic assertion that America welcomes China’s rise. But, after being censored by Chinese television in Shanghai and harangued by a junior Chinese official at the Copenhagen climate talks, Barack Obama may be feeling less warm towards Beijing. An early sign that the White House is hardening its policy could come in the next few months, with an official decision to label China a “currency manipulator”.

Even if the administration itself does not move, the voices calling for tougher policies against China are likely to get louder in Congress. Google’s decision to highlight the dangers of cyberattack from China will play to growing American security fears about China. The development of Chinese missile systems that threaten US naval dominance in the Pacific are also causing concern in Washington. Impending US arms sales to Taiwan are already provoking a dispute.

Meanwhile, protectionism seems to be becoming intellectually respectable in the US in ways that should worry China.

A trade war between America and China is hardly to be welcomed. It could tip the world back into recession and inject dangerous new tensions into international politics. If it happens, both sides will share the blame. The US has been almost wilfully naive about the connections between free trade and democracy. The Chinese have been provocative over currency and human rights. If they want to head off a damaging clash with America, changes in policy would be well advised.
 
Too bad, our politicians failed to understand that China is run by Engineers and not Lawyers. Our experience of Engineer President Carter not withstanding...
 
Ref. Esoteric’s post 243:
A possible near term trigger for conflict between the west (including US supported Japan) and China is:

“...’China would firmly uphold its due rights in the East China Sea.’ … Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi {said to his Japanese counterpart}… Yang has made clear China's stance on the East China Sea issue and stressed the sovereign rights of Chunxiao oil and gas field belong to China

According to the principled common understanding reached between the two countries on the East China Sea issue, the Japanese side could participate in the cooperative development of Chunxiao in accordance with relevant laws of China, but the cooperative development is different from "joint development." …”

From: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90776/90883/6872215.html (Today’s issue)

Billy T comment:
China is claiming most of the South and East China Sea, at least as its exclusive economic exploitation zone based on some Chinese “Islands” many of which are under water at high tide. (As I recall, the exclusive economic zone is that part of the sea which is no more than 200 miles from your sovern land. Why these often flooded “islands” are so important to China.) On some of these islands they have built continuously manned observation stations (for weather and communications) and a few tiny permanent civilian settlements (a few dozen inhabitants). Japan, the Philippians and Vietnam also make similar conflicting claims to smaller, more limited regions, but are doing nothing to physically demonstrate their claims. Many conflicts get started when oil is to be had.

Although not able to successfully challenge the US's 7Th fleet in the South China Sea (except possible near the coast with support from large numbers of land based cruise missiles) China is developing and testing a global "blue water" navy capacity.
 
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Here is a graphical picture of many country's agricultural use and potential. Note how only Brazil could greatly expand production (and it has the freshwater and sunshine to do so).

getArticleImage
From: http://www.biomassmagazine.com/article.jsp?article_id=3454&q=&page=2

Bar graph shows that only 1/8 of Brazil's potential farm land is being used, but much is legally "off limits" so that is somewhat missleading. Note however that only 2% of the land in agricultural use is growing sugar cane. I.e. most is abandoned pasture that could grow sugar cane.
 
"... Couples in Beijing may be allowed to have a second child even if their spouse has siblings, the Beijing News reported today. Currently parents are only permitted to have a second child if they are both from an only-child generation. Those entitled to conceive a second child will also no longer have to wait four years after their first has been born.

"Couple should have the right to decide when to have their second child," said Peng Yuhua, deputy head of Beijing Population and Planning Commission. "According to natural law of stable human replacement, every woman should bear at least 2.1 children. The number now in China is leveled at 1.8, while Beijing comes down to 1 right now," said Peng ..."

From: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90782/90872/6877800.html

Billy T comment:

More evidence that China is trying to rapidly convert to a domestic based GDP economy. - Nothing expands a family's purchasing more than twice as many children. That second child will do a lot to reduce China's 50% of income being saved.
 
US and a few allies fought the war in Iraq, at great cost, but China won it cheap:

"China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), Total and Petronas will join South Oil Company in Iraq to form a consortium, signing a 20-year contract with Iraq on January 27, 2010. Under the contract, CNPC will work as the operator, and CNPC, Total, Petronas and the Iraqi South Oil Company are to own 37.5 percent, 18.75 percent, 18.75 percent and 25 percent rights and interests respectively.

Halfaya oilfield* is located in southeastern Iraq. According to data provided by the Government of Iraq, Halfaya oilfield has about 4.1 billion barrels of recoverable reserves, and current production can reach 3,100 barrels per day. The consortium led by China National Petroleum Corporation promised to raise oil production to 535,000 barrels per day. ..."

FROM: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90778/90861/6881269.html

China also has oil rights up in the Kurdish area. AFAIK, not one US oil company has any rights to any Iraq field.

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*Note that large, low production cost field is close to the gulf - making it one of the most desirables ones. It is producing and there is little doubt about the volume of oil there, but Iran also claims part of it. Not likely Iran will trouble China as China buys about 60% of Iran's oil, and is helping to develope gas fields in the NE of Iran - Possibly to tie into the just opened pipe line to China's East coastal cities. (Currently the pipe line is filling - building up to operational pressure on gas from one or two of the XXXXistans, near the Black Sea. Only cities in Western China are currently taking gas from it.)
 
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China, sex & the internet

Here is a seldom discussed aspect of China’s problems associated with fact that until recently almost a million young men were leaving the farms each month to get higher paying jobs in the city:

“… During long periods of separation from their spouses, some migrant workers ask for "help" from sex workers to meet physiological needs … Unsafe sex by migrant workers will lead to a rise in venereal diseases and other social problems," Zhang said.

Due to separation from their wives or unhappy marriages, 30 percent of married men hire prostitutes for sex, and another 30 percent said they have had many sexual partners.

Zhang made a proposal to the provincial political consultative conference last year, asking authorities to conduct an official survey on migrant workers' sex problems, but it was turned down. To help promote safe sex, Zhang's commission distributed some 100 million condoms to migrant workers last year. …” {Billy T notes: For the same reason, despite being the most Catholic country in the world, Brazil also gives out nearly that same number, for free, mainly around Carnival time.}

From: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90776/90882/6883226.html

Chinese are more prudish than Americans, at least in public – part of why they control what can be seen on internet sites. For example, also from today's People's Daily:

“..China has cracked down on 109 cases of Internet pornography on overseas servers or websites and seized 152 suspects, said the Ministry of Public Security. …”

From: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90776/90882/6883206.html

BTW, Bill Gates is supporting China in the dispute with Google. He notes that in Germany the internet cannot display anything that is favorable to the Nazis, etc. I.e. claims that every country has right to control the internet material as it thinks best for it. - Cynics, me included, think fact that MS's search engine, Bing is trying to gain acceptance in China may have a lot to do with Bill's support for China against Google.
 
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Just a thought:

Economists say that China may not be able to catch up with USA GDP till 2025 or 2030.

In 2009, China GDP was 33.54 Trillion RMB. So if China is forced to revalue their currency in 2012 say on par with US dollar, should not that double of US GDP?
 
kmguru said:
... Economists say that China may not be able to catch up with USA GDP till 2025 or 2030.

In 2009, China GDP was 33.54 Trillion RMB. So if China is forced to revalue their currency in 2012 say on par with US dollar, should not that double of US GDP?
Click to expand...
On the timing accuracy of predictions of economists about China, it is interesting to note that the Goldman Sack report of a few years ago, which first used the term "BRIC"s included the prediction that China's would pass Japan in 2016 - It will do that in 2010, six years sooner than predicted (in less than half the time predicted).

As far as your question on GDP, I do not know the answer. Superficially, if you declare (and can make stick) your currency to be worth twice as many dollars, then it would seem your GDP, in dollars would double. But surely if you are making the same number of goods and services, that would be nonsense.

This may just reflect another silliness in the GDP. For example, if half the real estate in California were destroyed by the "big one" then when half of the destroyed is rebuilt that rebuilding will be a big increase in GDP compared to CA's pre-big one GDP, (despite the fact that 25% of the buildings are still destroyed)! I.e. a dollar of repair or restoration is treated in the GDP calculation the same as a dollar of new construction - That is just stupid and very distorting of what GDP is supposed to reflect.

Another silly example of how to add 20,000 dollars to GDP is to hire and pay $10,000 to one team of men to dig a big hole and then $10,000 to another team to fill it back in. I think a valuable GDP would ONLY measure the development of increased productive capacity. I.e. every thing spent on the rose bowl or NFL games or night club singers, etc. should be ignored as next year there is nothing productive to show for these events.

Part of the reason China's GDP is small compared to the US's GDP is that these, "not there next year" expenditures are much lower part of China's efforts. Their expenditures tend to be for things like new high speed railroads, dams, power plants, bridges, green energy systems, etc.
 
"...Brazil already produces ethanol from sugar cane at a cost of $36 to $43 a barrel, {and} spent decades fostering a flex-fuel auto industry -- the 10 millionth flex-fuel car rolled off Brazil's auto assembly line March 4 -- that makes ethanol a hugely attractive substitute for gasoline when oil is selling for $80 a barrel. No wonder Brazil's ethanol industry is in the midst of a merger-and-acquisition boom as players scramble to grab share. ..."

From: http://articles.moneycentral.msn.co...ill-oil-hit-200-dollars-after-all.aspx?page=2

Billy T comment:
Perhaps when oil is $200/ barrel, US taxpayers will revolt against taxation and tariffs that support the corn to alcohol industry because they could drive (now at half the cost per mile) or when oil is $200/barrel at approximately 1/5 the cost per mile IF TROPICAL SUGAR CANE ALCOHOL were allowed to be imported.

(In both cases, I have included both the price at the pump and the taxes paid to support economically and environmentally unsound corn to alcohol production and blending.)
 
A 40 year long iron ore sale patten is broken:

"... “We have no options,” Shen, who heads China’s largest privately held steelmaker, said today ... “Iron ore prices have gone too far. We have to accept it, although we can’t afford it.”

Brazil’s Vale, the largest supplier*, set a precedent this week by securing a 90 percent price increase from Sumitomo Metal Industries Co. and shifting to quarterly pricing from a 40-year system of selling iron ore through annual contracts. The World Steel Association asked regulators to probe an “oligopoly” among iron ore miners and the China Iron and Steel Association said it will hold an emergency meeting today to discuss the issue.

Vale said yesterday it agreed with 97 percent of its global clients to adopt quarterly price contracts, following moves by BHP Billiton Ltd. to replace annual negotiations with more frequent adjustments to prices. The two companies and Rio Tinto Group control about two-thirds of the $200 billion ore market, according to Credit Suisse Group AG. ...

Lakshmi Mittal, chief executive officer of ArcelorMittal, said March 31 the world’s biggest steelmaker will raise costs for customers by $150 a metric ton this quarter. The new price will be 20 percent more than the current rates compiled by Metal Bulletin. ..."

from: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alQKY6fp0wm4

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*Not only the largest, but the cheapest producer and yields the highest purity Fe2O3 (Ore in the high 90 percent!) but shipping to China cost more than from Australian producers. I think about 1/3 of Vale's production goes to Europe. Then it has lower shipping costs.

Prices of products with high steel usage are going up. (cars, washing machines, etc.) Copper prices increases will also add to inflation of items with electric motors. Dollar's purchasing power going down in the long term is not just due to the Treasury / FED printing more. China, world's largest car market, will drive up the cost of oil. (That seems to be already happening with oil at ~$85/barrel now.)

To bad US tax payers are not allowed to import low cost tropical alcohol for their cars and cut their driving cost in half, if subsidies for corn to alcohol were eliminated and this saving to tax payers is also included in the computation of driving cost per mile. The "How Dumb can US Taxpayer Be?" thread give more details (and other examples of how special interest exploit the common tax payer to grow even richer.)
 
While Vietnam is not officially a "BRIC" it has replaced China as a cheap labor area. Here is thumb-nail sketch made by Matthew Asia's investment adviser after his recent visit there:

"According to Vietnam’s Ministry of Information and Communications, the country’s mobile phone penetration rate was 85% in 2008, higher than Indonesia at 60% and the Philippines at 78%. In addition, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City host over 8,000 free Wi-Fi locations. Vietnam’s adult literacy rate is higher than 90% and nearly all urban households have access to a desktop computer, giving telecom firms a good foundation from which to embark on a rapid broadband Internet expansion plan. The country’s largest private-public joint venture telecom operator, which I met with on this trip, experienced a 35% growth in its broadband Internet business in 2009 and expects 38% growth in 2010. One interesting fact is that Vietnamese telecom companies have found cost-effective ways to deliver results. Households are connected to the Internet through cables connected by street utility poles. These ubiquitous cable lines probably have made Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City two of the most “wired” (in the literal sense) cities in Asia. However, as the country’s infrastructure continues to develop, these hanging cables should eventually be upgraded to underground fiber optic cables.

Vietnam has made tremendous economic achievements for its 86 million people after more than two decades of economic reform known as “doi moi” (“renovation”). The government has anchored its monetary policy on the depreciation of its currency, the dong. A depreciating currency makes goods cheaper and wages more competitive, which in turn increases foreign direct investment (FDI) and promotes exports. Major Asian economies such as Singapore, Korea and Japan have been drawn to Vietnam for its commitment to the World Trade Organization, the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement and the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement. Amid the global financial crisis, Vietnam received FDI of US$10 billion in 2009, a 13% year-over-year drop, but better than the 25% to 30% decline for other countries in the region during the same period. ..."

Billy t comment:
If US and EU are in deep depression 10 years from now, as I have forecast for years, perhaps even Vietnam will be the US's economic equal then. China will be the ruler of the world then with its new "blue water navy" keeping order. "Unthinkable" - Yes, but what happens often is.
 
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“…If China weren’t already halfway through the construction of the world’s largest high-speed rail network, it would be difficult to take this proposal seriously: … China is planning a series of transcontinental high-speed rail lines designed to connect London to Beijing in just two days … Taking the growing Chinese rail network as the starting point, new 200 mph lines would extend south towards Singapore, north and west into Siberia, and west through India, Kazakhstan, and Turkey, with the eventual goal of linking into the growing European fast train syste m. …” See Map:

Chinese-Transcontinental-High-Speed-Rail-Network.jpg


“…Negotiations are already underway with 17 countries, premised on the idea that China would spend its own money building the rail links in exchange for resources it currently lacks. According to Wang Mengshu, a consultant working on the project, “We would actually prefer the other countries to pay in natural resources* rather than make their own capital investment.”
China has already agreed to finance a rail link into Myanmar in exchange for the rights to that country’s lithium reserves. Russia and China have announced plans to build a new trans-Siberian link. Iran, Pakistan, and India are each negotiating with China to build domestic rail lines that would link into the overall transcontinental system. …”
From: http://www.thetransportpolitic.com/...continental-ambitions-with-massive-rail-plan/

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*Exactly what Billy T has predicted for years: China wants (and is) draining down dollars in its reserves by buying real assets it will need in the future now, before the dollar loses most of its purchasing power. For the last four months, Chain has been a net seller of US Treasury paper promises. (Maturing and not rolled bonds are effective sold back to the Treasury at face value, so are counted in these sales.) This decline in treasury holdings is despite fact China still has a large trade surplus with the USA. (Billions of dollars pouring into China still.) The Chinese are, however living better and imported more than they exported last month for first time in 6 years. That is to be expected as the real purchasing power of urban Chinese is increasing at ~15% annually (and that of the rural folk at ~10%).
 
"... The {Require Reserver Ratio},RRR, for the rural credit cooperatives and rural banks would remain unchanged at 13.5 percent, said the PBOC.{effectively China's central bank} However, the RRR for other small financial institutions would rise to 14 percent, and that for large financial institutions to 17 percent.

This is the third rise in the deposit ratio this year. On January 12 and February 17, the central bank raised the deposit ratio by half a percentage point each time. ..."

From: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-05/03/content_9802877.htm

Billy T comment: The PBOC cut the ratio four times in 2008 to stimulate. They really are doing a good Keynesian job. In the US we only follow Keynes when stimulation is called for.
 
"... When completed in 2020, {China's strategic oil reserve} will have a reserve capacity of 90 days' crude oil imports, the report revealed.

The first phase of four reserve bases has been completed and was put into operation in 2009. They are located in coastal provinces - Zhenhai and Zhoushan of Zhejiang province; Huangdao in Shandong province; and Dalian in Liaoning province, with a total oil reserve capacity up to 16.4 million cubic meters or 102 million barrels, which is equivalent to the amount of 21 days' oil imports.

The second phase, which is expected to have total reserve capacity of up to 26.8 million cu m, or 168 million barrels, is under construction, but the locations have not been officially revealed.
The third phase is under programming, according to the report. ..."

From: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2010-05/10/content_9830938.htm

Billy T comment: This, with China's rapidly increasing wealth and car sales (now greater than the US sales), will push oil above 100 dollars per barrel soon. The Gulf Coast oil spill will also reduce the drilling for new supplies and add to the upward pressure on prices.
 
China and India:
"... CHINDIA, in popular lingo, are now automobile market leaders in passenger cars by posting a staggering 34% increase to 1.11 million vehicles and 39.5% to 143,976 vehicles, respectively, during April. In contrast, passenger car sales in the U.S. during the month rose 20%. ..."

From: http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/34018/Auto+Sales+in+CHINDIA+Tops+U.S.

Billy T comment: Sales not only increasing approximately twice as fast as US sales in China's case but this increase is from a greater sales pace last year than US! This plus the filling of China's strategic oil reserve, which will have a reserve capacity of 90 days' crude oil imports, assures oil well above $100/ barrel soon, especially with the current gulf oil leak not likely to be contained until late June, at the earliest. (No new wells to be drilled in US coastal waters, will reduce the expected supply and the older wells in Mexican waters, which supply significant fraction of US imported oil are well past their "peak oil" - out put already down about 20% from the earlier peak.)

I think, but am not sure, that the only reason oil is not now near $100/ barrel is the "floating oil." - During the deepest part of the recession, many oil tankers were not needed. They filled up with more than a million barrels each and are just now beginning to off load their oil.
 
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Brazil is lending the IMF 286 million dollars to help out Greece, but IMF not Greece, will owe Brazil when loan matures.
 
"... Nigeria's state-run oil firm NNPC and China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) have signed a $23bn deal ... to build three refineries and a fuel complex in Nigeria. The project would add 750,000 barrels per day of extra refining capacity. ..."

From: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/10116945.stm

Billy T comment: That is 23 billion dollars more of China's of US treasury's paper promises safely converted into real assets without causing the dollar to decline in value. China is getting quite skilled at reducing it Treasury holdings. Probably will soon announce they have declined for last five months soon despite still running a trade surplus with the US.

Natural resources rich Brazil is not doing so well. Its reserves just increased to 250 billion dollars, but it is trying - lent dollars to the IMF - see last post, but I think the payback of that loan is also in dollars, so accomplishes nothing in terms of getting out of dollars.
 
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