Avian flu pandemic?

The Mighty Billy said:
I'm not afraid to admit that it already has me scared shitless.

Your feelings and opinions on the matter?
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I wouldn't say I'm scared shitless but certainly concerned. If it gets out of control I'll be running to the hills :p
 
Scared of the avian flu itself? No. Not at all. Why be any more scared of this than any other disease? I will get it or I will not. If I do, I will deal the best I can, and maybe die. Oh well. That's how life goes.

Scared of Bush's idea of having the US Army in charge of preparedness and disaster response? Yes.
 
Besides, 60 people dead is FAR from a pandemic, and any fears of it becoming a pandemic are no more than worst case scenario speculation.

Do you also fear the Earth being struck by a doomsday asteroid?
I can't be bothered living in fear, especially fear of the inevitable.
I have more important things to use up my precious time.
 
We can't seem to use our brains about things like this. How the hell did those 60 people contract an alleged avian flu that has allegedly not yet become a "human" flu? Do they have avian genes that we don't know about, and probably don't want to know about? All they have to do is bandy about some numbers and they've got the hearts, minds, nads, and undivided attention of the chronically panicky and the hypochondriacs, most of whom will kill to save themselves from the next creeping monster epidemic.

I'm going to stick a banana in my *** and when I get through this flu season without getting sick, I will tell everyone how well it worked. Remember, to keep the flu away, stick a banana in your ear.
 
There are current reports that the Avian Flu may or maynot have already developed into a person-to-person transmittable strain. The current estimate by WHO is that it is not a question of "if" but "when." Estimates range from 5 million to 150 million fatalities.
 
New evidence suggests that the 1918 flu that killed millions was, in fact, an avian flu.


Metakron,

How the hell did those 60 people contract an alleged avian flu that has allegedly not yet become a "human" flu?
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It's avian flu because it is not, as of yet, communicable between humans. Humans have to get it from the birds. The birds transmit it to each other and to humans.

The danger is that whle inside a human, it combines with a human strain of flu and adapts a surface protein that makes it easily transmitable between humans. That's when the pandemic begins...

Speaking of the 1918 flu. Apparently it didn't need to recombine with a human flu strain. It mutated on its own. Vagaries of fate, I suppose.
 
Metakron is not referring to the 1918 flu that killed 40-50 million people. So far the current Avian Flu has killed more than 60 people as he corrrectly states. All flu's mutate as they develop resistance to antibiotics: just like evolution.
 
I know. I ust thought that I'd throw in the new information abut the origins of the 1918 flu just to shake things up a little. I find it rather interesting, myself.

His question actually seemed to show a confusion about why it's an 'avian flu' rather than a 'human flu' and how is it that humans are able to contract an avian flu. So, I explained it to him.

By the way, antibiotics have no effect on viruses.
 
valich said:
Metakron is not referring to the 1918 flu that killed 40-50 million people. So far the current Avian Flu has killed more than 60 people as he corrrectly states. All flu's mutate as they develop resistance to antibiotics: just like evolution.
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A slight misunderstanding here, valich. The flu doesn't develop a resistance against antibiotics because they are unaffected by them in the first place.

Antibiotics are given to prevent secondary bactrial infections and to hopefully allow the immune system to withstand the flu's onslaught and overcome it by producing it's own antibodies (T-cells, etc.).

A vaccine has to be developed made of weakened or dead virus (or parts of it) that will enable the body to develop a resistance prior to a real infection. As I understand it, that's well underway.
 
Thanks for correcting me. I did mean vaccine and not antibiotics. I'm just so terrible with names and terminology. But there is now only one vaccine that is proving to be effective against the Asian Flu Virus and, as I was saying on the other thread, the U.S. has the only manufacturer of that vaccine. I haven't heard what the company it is that manufactures that vaccine. There used to be two vaccines, but the former is now proving to be ineffective in Southeast Asia. So I wonder if we can produce enough to handle the "probable pandemic" that is being predicted? Bush is now making this one of his "priority concerns." Whatever that means?
 
valich said:
Thanks for correcting me. I did mean vaccine and not antibiotics. I'm just so terrible with names and terminology. But there is now only one vaccine that is proving to be effective against the Asian Flu Virus and, as I was saying on the other thread, the U.S. has the only manufacturer of that vaccine. I haven't heard what the company it is that manufactures that vaccine. There used to be two vaccines, but the former is now proving to be ineffective in Southeast Asia. So I wonder if we can produce enough to handle the "probable pandemic" that is being predicted? Bush is now making this one of his "priority concerns." Whatever that means?
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You're welcome, Valich, and I hope I didn't sound pushy.

From what I've read recently, the vaccine makers are standing on "go" simply waiting to see if it's going to be needed. Currently, the one you mentioned is the only one actually ready for production but at least three other major makers could come online within 25 days of being notified and provided with initial cultures. Production can proceed quite rapidly because the techniques (which use innoculated eggs) is very well understood and actually very common.

The primary remaining questions are what actual volume will be needed and if there will be new variants of the virus.
 
What (if any) are the drawback of vaccinating people now?
Is it simply an economic issue, or is there some biological justification for not producing and dispensing the vaccine?
 
Not at all! I reply only so I keep posted on this thread. The one I mentioned, as far as I have heard, is the only one now currently manufacturing the current vaccine effective vaccine in the world, not just standing by. So maybe we are lucky to be in the U.S. I know nothing about the techniques.
 
valich said:
So maybe we are lucky to be in the U.S. I know nothing about the techniques.
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Actually, from what I have heard there were a number of countries in line ahead of us, who "placed an order" first, and we would have to wait for it, even though the company is in this country.
From what I understand, that was part of the reason Bush met with them.
 
one_raven said:
What (if any) are the drawback of vaccinating people now?
Is it simply an economic issue, or is there some biological justification for not producing and dispensing the vaccine?
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Good question! It's not an econimic issue as far as I know, but because the vaccine has not been extensively used, we wouldn't know the longterm side effects - if there are any? But in any case, the "scare" is still much too soon to initiate a mass vaccination program.
 
So it is a matter of measured risk?
The greater the risk of catching it, the greater the risk they will take with minimally tested medicines?
 
While it might be economic at base, it's not exactly about saving money...
You have to consider that there are limited resources to devote to developing next years flu vaccine. Experts spend a large amount of time tracking the various strains of flu active in any one year and computing the odds on which one or two might be the most likely to become a pandemic.

The danger is that if the wrong strain is made into the vaccine, then the resulting flu epidemic sans vaccine could endanger a large number of lives (even if the particular strain isn't deadly in itself, the young and the elderly are always at risk even from the most benign viruses.)

I suppose another concern might be that if a large amount of vaccine were produced but the virus didn't spread for a few more years, then the virus might mutate in that time thus rendering the vaccine useless. Wasted money. Wasted lives.

Really, the boys at CDC and the other organizations that deal with this kind of thing have their jobs cut out for them. One mistake and they could be responsible for millions of deaths.
 
invert_nexus said:
The danger is that if the wrong strain is made into the vaccine, then the resulting flu epidemic sans vaccine could endanger a large number of lives (even if the particular strain isn't deadly in itself, the young and the elderly are always at risk even from the most benign viruses.)
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So, there is no risk from giving the "wrong" vaccine, except for the simple fact that it will not work, and you might as well not have been any vaccine at all?
A vaccine for a strain of flu that is not going around will not be the cause of any direct harm, correct?
Does your body "learn" vaccines?
Let's say I am vaccinated against a flu that is going around, and the same flu breaks out again 10, 15 or 20 years later.
Am I still safe?
 
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