I have read in the financial press that Amazon is rethinking what its business really is, and that it seems to be coming to the conclusion that what it excels at is final stage delivery to individual consumers.
I think that I heard somewhere that Amazon is leasing large cargo aircraft and will be competing with the package delivery companies with long-haul shipping too. I don't know how practical that is. Running an airline, even a cargo airline, is hugely complex. Flying and servicing the aircraft, government aviation regulations up the butt. It would make more sense to hire that out to a specialist air transportation company.
And I think that is right. It never fails to amaze me how crap many delivery companies are, from a householder's point of view.
Here in California, UPS and Fedex are very good. So is the US Postal Service, which Amazon uses for small packages like individual books. Of course I live in the suburbs and if I'm not home, they leave the package at my door, which isn't visible from the street. I've never had anything stolen, though people have been arrested around here for prowling the neighborhoods stealing newly-delivered packages off door steps.
The question is, how would a drone improve on that? How will a drone determine if you are home and hand you your package if you are? It's just going to drop a package on the door step, perhaps violently and in a more exposed location that's easier for the drone to reach.
I'm sure this is a much bigger problem for big city residents than for suburbanites like me. So... how does a drone propose to deliver packages to individuals who live in big-city apartment buildings?
Amazon, by contrast has put real effort into makes the process work. These locker systems they have in local stores are great. You don't need to wait in the house, but can pick the item up from the locker as you pass, at a time that suits you when you do your shopping. Other store chains do the same, using their high street outlets as collection points rather than risking the unreliability of a handover at the front doorstep.
Yeah, we have that here in Silicon Valley too. You can order something online from a chain's website and have them deliver it to their store nearest you so that you can pick it up in person.
So yes I think UPS and Fedex need to decide, rapidly, whether they are in the business of final stage delivery to households, or just to businesses in office hours and other easier delivery targets.
The thing is, will Amazon really be able to improve on what UPS and Fedex are currently doing? Or will they just force a horde of delivery drivers out of their jobs with their drones? (There goes another of the dwindling number of decent-paying jobs for males with no university education.) And once Amazon is the dominant delivery service, online shoppers will be increasingly locked into making all their purchases from Amazon.
But I rather hope this drone thing is a gimmick to draw attention to Amazon's seriousness of purpose, rather a real project. I think it will be a bridge too far, even for them.
It doesn't sound practical to me.
